The War We Are Losing So Far. Reflections in Front of a World Map
US President Donald Trump has earned himself an image as... an eccentric politician.
Sometimes he will say one thing. Sometimes he will say something completely opposite. Sometimes he will introduce duties on everything and everyone, and sometimes he will suddenly cancel them. Well, or not cancel them.
There is certainly a certain theatricality in his actions.
But there is also a certain logic in them.
For example, he recently stated regarding World War II:
"We are the only ones who are not celebrating, and we are the only ones who won the war. Russia helped."
Our domestic community responded to this quite naturally – with a reminder of who defeated Hitler, a reminder of who took Berlin.
It is true that the USSR suffered the greatest costs in that war, and our banner flew over the Reichstag.
BUT Trump is absolutely right - the only ones who won that war were the US! Europe lost its former world dominance. The USSR lost millions of lives. And only the US gained.
Defeating the enemy and winning the war are not always the same thing!
So if we sometimes don't see the logic in Trump's actions, then perhaps that is exactly what he (or the American elite groups behind him) is trying to achieve.
But let's leave the days gone by. Let's see what's happening now. And now we live in an era called the next global redistribution of the world.
There are such eras in stories there have been many of them. They begin with the fact that somewhere in the vastness of the globe the balance of power of the key competing players is disrupted. They end with the establishment of a new balance of power, sometimes with new players.
The current global redistribution began, but did not end, with the collapse of the USSR. Its first phase was marked by the global dominance of the USA, but they lacked a little bit of resources to maintain this situation. Therefore, the world entered the second stage of redistribution, which is happening now.
It is characterized by the fact that large players, as well as smaller players, have joined this exciting process and are trying to secure certain preferences for themselves in the resulting gaps in globalism.
The previous American administration in this situation tried to follow the path of maximally preserving the status quo.
Trump and the forces behind him have apparently chosen a different approach, which is based on the principle: “If you can’t prevent chaos, then lead it.” And in this vein, their actions have logic.
But let's leave Trump aside. He's not really what we're talking about here.
We are talking about our mother Russia. What awaits her in this dangerous game of redividing the world.
Did the author mention the word "game"? Sorry, this is a war to re-divide the world. Somewhere relatively peaceful, like between China and the US; somewhere with the use of weapons, as between Israel and Iran; somewhere without weapons, but not so peaceful, as between Russia and Azerbaijan in recent days.
Russia was forced to start the SVO precisely within the framework of this struggle.
Oh yeah! Another remark. The words "redivision of the world" are not quite accurate and somewhat vulgar in our "humanistic" times. It would be more correct, and in some ways more accurate, to call it global competition for resources and markets.
If we want Russia to exist under the sun, it needs to control and protect access to its resources.
If we want (I personally really want) the people of Russia not to be poor and to prosper, then it needs access to markets for finished products.
First, to our own internal market, which is not always ours. For example, will a market controlled by an ethnic organized crime group from a neighboring state be ours? Or will a market with import substitution of screwdriver assembly be ours?
But this is not enough. The Russian domestic market is roughly 10-15% of the Chinese domestic market or about the same as the US domestic market.
To develop our own (!) production of goods with a high level of added value (!), one domestic market is not enough. Many types of production may simply not pay off, and therefore will never exist. And for this, an external market is needed.
Officially, we are fighting Ukrainian Nazism. But in reality, this is not quite true.
Ukrainian Nazism is just a tool. A tool used in the struggle for a place in the sun. More precisely, a tool with which they want to push Russia a little away from this sunny place.
The Western market is closed to us. The problem is not in the SVO or in sanctions, and not in V.V. Putin, as liberals like to say. The Western market has always been closed to us, despite the blind faith in it.
There, Russia is interesting only as a supplier of resources and as a sales market. Our highly processed goods are not needed there – they have their own producers, and they do not need an extra competitor.
The markets of the East and South remain. But the West also lays claim to these markets. Another extra competitor? No need! And that is why Ukrainian Nazism was created.
As Omar Bradley, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff in the late 40s, said, “Tactics and strategy are studied by amateurs; logistics by professionals.”
The Ukrainian coup d'etat simply and elegantly closed the Black Sea logistics for Russia. In a modern war for a place in the sun, it is not necessary to bomb the enemy, especially if he has a nuclear triad. You can try to make him uncompetitive.
Fortunately, the coup d'état did not quite achieve its goal. Crimea became Russian again, and the goals of Ukrainian Nazism were adjusted.
The beginning of the NWO and the strengthening of sanctions have activated the "pivot to the east" (and also to the south) for Russian politics and economy. And here again the question of logistics arises. Who is on our way to the markets of the south and east?
In the struggle to redivid the world, major figures like the United States are fighting for global markets.
But there are smaller players. For example, Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Armenia. They also want to pinch off some benefits. And they are in the way of Russia's logistical interests.
And Russia is not as strong as we would like it to be. Having concentrated on achieving the goals of the SVO, we are starting to lack resources for other areas.
Among the traditional strengths of Russian society, there are always the concepts of spirituality, patriotism, and fortitude. Undoubtedly, these are very important things. But, unfortunately, among our strengths, the economy is rarely mentioned.
The economy often remains in the shadows, but it sometimes influences many processes much more than anything else.
Our almost-completed withdrawal from Syria. Among the reasons cited were intelligence/counterintelligence failures, incompetence of those in charge, the carelessness of the Assad clan, and many others. The real reason was economics.
In the conditions of the SVO, we did not have enough resources for Syria. There were not enough resources for the Syrian elites and not only the elites to be oriented towards Russia and interested in cooperation (naturally, such cooperation should be based on mutual benefit). As a result, the Syrian elites reoriented themselves towards Turkey, which invested in them.
Armenia gravitates towards the EU, Azerbaijan towards Turkey. The reason is the same.
“We can now say with complete certainty that the character of the future war is determined by the economy... The future war will inevitably entail an economic struggle, which will occupy the rear no less, if not more, than the front...
The defeat of the enemy's manpower would be the best beginning, but this "crushing" does not yet mark the final victory in our days... Overstraining the economic power of the state is fraught with the threat of losing the war, no matter how brilliant the victories on the battlefield."
The defeat of the enemy's manpower would be the best beginning, but this "crushing" does not yet mark the final victory in our days... Overstraining the economic power of the state is fraught with the threat of losing the war, no matter how brilliant the victories on the battlefield."
Do you know who said this? These are the statements of Marshal Boris Mikhailovich Shaposhnikov. A purely military man. A quote from his work "The Brain of the Army".
And our economy is still based on liberal illusions. The key one is that “the market will do everything itself.”
The market does what is profitable for it. It is profitable to sell oil, not refined products - it will sell oil. It is profitable to import Chinese goods - Chinese goods will be imported. Building production facilities, training professional personnel, developing technology, developing equipment for this technology, creating cooperation with other manufacturers - this is long, expensive and, most importantly, will it pay off?
It is necessary to rethink the role of the economy and the existing economic concept.
Why all this?
Mr. Trump came to mind again: “We are the only ones who won the war.”
We can certainly defeat Ukrainian Nazism (at least for a while).
Can we win the war in global world competition?
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