Geranium 3.0 vs. F-16. Is the Future Here?

What will be discussed in today's material is all done following the results of the "Twelve Day War" between Iran and Israel and the SVO. And even if both sides of the Middle East war consider themselves winners, this is not the point at all.
We will talk about the role of UAVs in the modern theater of military operations.

Today, an unmanned aerial vehicle is primarily a means of delivering various weapons to a target. Land, sea - it doesn't matter. Kamikaze UAVs have become widespread weapons, not inferior (and even superior) to winged or ballistic rocketsYes, 500 kg of explosives in a ballistic missile is not the same as 5-20 kg in drone, but it turned out that the UAV became a real competitor to missiles. Mainly due to its cost and simple design, which does not require such labor costs as a cruise missile.
It turns out that the 3M-14 “Caliber”, which costs $700, needs to be assembled and debugged, while the “Geranium”, which costs between $000 and $30, can be stamped out of scrap materials, like plastic bags.

Of course, a cruise or ballistic missile with a 500 kg warhead is much more serious than a drone, but a missile can be shot down - and that's it. UAVs can also be shot down, but they are much harder to detect, and their size is such that not every weapon is suitable for this.
The "Twelve Day War" between Iran and Israel showed the most interesting thing, something that was not in the SVO: the massive use of drones in conjunction with missiles "in assortment" and counteraction to them Defense, and the air defense is on par with the best in the world.

And there was a lot to see, from organizing combined attacks to fighting them with all available means.
If we believe the Israeli side, then out of more than 800 kamikaze drones of all types (Shahed, Ababil, Arash), a maximum of ten reached the target. That is, the role of UAVs turned out to be insignificant, the best task that was solved with the help of UAVs was to overload the Israeli air defense system once, and the financial structure - twice, since the Israeli aircraft aviation, which fought the drones, burned a simply staggering amount of fuel and used up trainloads of ammunition.
However, in Israel they believe that it was worth it.

The videos that can be viewed on the Israeli Internet regarding the actions of their aviation are interesting. This can be called a video tutorial on how to destroy drones. UAVs were shot down with aircraft cannons, destroyed with old Sidewinders and new small-sized AGR-20 APKWS-II, knocked off course with a jet stream (everyone understood who they spied on).
One could say "like a shooting gallery," but the targets were flying and exploding, which could have resulted in shrapnel damage or even destruction of Israeli aircraft.
In my previous materials on this topic, I have repeatedly said that an operator watching through a drone's cameras is no match for a fighter pilot. A different view, a different delay in reaction to events. This is the second big disadvantage of UAVs. And the first is that even a drone controlled by an operator, and not flying according to coordinates, is absolutely defenseless against a fighter pilot armed with a cannon and missiles.
What's more, a training two-seater piston airplane, capable of flying slightly faster than a UAV, and with a person in the second cabin holding an automatic shotgun, is a very dangerous enemy for a drone.
The method of using UAVs today is more or less the same: they gather in flocks and then go to the target area, then split up and attack. Not very pleasant for the enemy's air defense, but, as noted above, the devices are completely defenseless against aviation.

But let's imagine that in the depths of a flock of 20 drones, literally 1-2 devices carry air-to-air missiles. Yes, just like it was with the Ukrainian unmanned boat, which our Su-30 wanted to sink with cannon fire. For the plane, everything ended sadly, because the BEK had Stingers.
If the Ukrainians were able to install surface-to-air missiles on an unmanned boat, what could prevent them from similarly placing missiles under the belly of a drone?
And we will not talk about non-science fiction in the form of modern rockets, why? There is a more interesting option, of which, according to some data, there are still a lot in warehouses.
We are talking about the “Soviet Sidewinder” – the R-60M missile.

Yes, it is, to put it mildly, not new: it was adopted into service in 1977. It was mainly used on MiG aircraft (up to the 29th) as a missile for close maneuverable combat. Today it is completely outdated due to its frankly short range: 10-12 km, but for our purposes this is a completely normal distance.
The missile, by the way, is quite combat-ready: it has taken down more than one aircraft, including the F-14, the Israeli Kfir, the MiG-29, and the F-15D and F-111. Naturally, all this happened in the Middle East.
And a lot of these missiles were produced, more than 30 thousand, so several thousand could easily have ended up in warehouses.
The missile has a short range, but its dimensions (2 meters long) and weight (44 kg) are quite suitable for modern UAVs, the load of which is approximately 50 kg. The Komar seeker is infrared, with a cooled photoreceiver, with a Kolibri non-contact fuse (distance 5 meters) and tungsten rods as striking elements.
In general, nothing special, just an old missile, which, in theory, can easily be confused by modern IR traps.
However, if we are talking about "point-blank shooting", that is, a distance of 1-3 km, then there are options. In general, to fire a cannon, pilots are forced to approach even closer, which turned out to be a deadly matter for Ukrainian F-16 pilots, so launching such a missile into the front hemisphere of an approaching fighter can be fatal for it. Neither the pilot nor the automatics will have time to react. Yes, as happened with our Su-30, whose crew did not expect such a point-blank launch.
Now that the Gerani-3 with remote control, capable of transmitting images to operators via cameras, has entered service, it has become possible to use air-to-air missiles. Of course, with the availability of radar data on the approaching enemy, but this is not as difficult as it seems.
And the presence of such unmanned fighters in each group of "Geraniums" can greatly affect the UAV's ability to reach its target. Especially in places where the enemy's aviation feels safe.
Yes, there is no doubt that the probability of shooting down a modern aircraft with such a "clapper" is low, but it should not be ruled out. Were the Ukrainians able to launch a missile at our aircraft from a boat tossing on the waves? Our operators will also be able to send a missile that takes aim at an enemy aircraft. And with a certain lucky coincidence, this missile can poke its tungsten rods into the body of the same F-16.
Well, even the launch of a missile from a crowd of Geraniums heading towards the target is already a good psychological impact on the enemy. It is no secret that a missile heading towards an airplane, among other things, has a very strong effect on the pilot's nerves. And what is going on there will be a "big-big secret" for the pilot, he will only see the missile heading towards him, launched from a very short distance, and therefore very inconvenient to neutralize.
Ukrainian military pilots have already gotten used to the fact that the Gerans fly in groups of 15-25 machines. And basically, there are devices that fly according to coordinates, without remote control, which means that it is possible, having chosen a section of the route that is safe for the Ukrainian Air Force, where neither Russian aviation nor air defense systems operate, to attack the group and try to destroy it by all available means.
It is probably impossible to say that the Ukrainians have huge stockpiles of missiles. If this were the case, they would not be launching attacks at short distances with cannon fire. This is still a very complex way of defeating the enemy (probably the most complex of all available), but the cheapest: they definitely have enough shells, and as far as I know, they have not yet "visited" the "Precision Mechanics Plant" in the city of Kamenets-Podolsky.
But even when such a group is detected, the identification of the "aircraft hunter" will be a very big question, since it will be very difficult to detect a UAV with a missile suspended below. The radar image will not provide data, and visually, this will be exactly the range of a cannon attack. But after several launches "towards" the Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters of R-60M or R-60MK missiles, it will become clear that flying to a distance of confident opening fire from a cannon is mortally dangerous for the aircraft.
That is, a "security circle" with a diameter of 5-7 km will be formed around the Geranium group. Not bad. And to accomplish the task, the Ukrainian Armed Forces pilots will have to use full-fledged air-to-air missiles against the drones, even the same Sidewinders. It would be good if the European friends would throw Kyiv something from their old stocks, although it seems that the first model missiles are currently not available on the market.
In ancient times (50 years ago), the first models of the AIM-9A/B Sidewinder cost around $15. The modern AIM-9X Block II FY15 costs $600. This idea is generally good because Kyiv will once again get a good deal on huge sums. They will, of course, give them to him, and perhaps they will give him missiles, if, I repeat, they remain in Europe.
But even without that, the presence in a group of 20 Geraniums heading towards a target of at least two that, instead of the usual warhead, carry one air-to-air missile, can have a positive effect on the UAV’s flight to the target.
After all, Kyiv's supply of aircraft and pilots is not endless. And the loss of even one F-16 is very unpleasant. And if the price is a pittance, then even more so.
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