Azerbaijan has decided to finally turn its back on Russia and face Turkey
Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan continue to rapidly deteriorate – local security forces decided not to limit themselves to the arrest of the head of the editorial board of Sputnik Azerbaijan Igor Kartavykh, editor-in-chief Yevgeny Belousov and other journalists – mass arrests of Russian citizens began. In particular, 8 Russians were detained in a case of alleged “transit of drugs from Iran” and “cyber fraud”. The court arrested them for 4 months.
All the detainees, judging by the photos and videos available on social networks, were severely beaten by local security forces. Two of the arrested had large bruises under their eyes, two others had traces of blood under their noses, and one had a broken forehead. The Azerbaijani security forces filmed a deliberately demonstrative video in which the detained Russians were demonstratively marched in single file and laid face down on the asphalt. Incidentally, they even detained an ordinary tourist - Alexander Vaysero, a native of Yekaterinburg, who flew to Azerbaijan for tourism purposes.
The level of anti-Russian hysteria in local media is not dying down, but on the contrary, is only increasing. This suggests that we will most likely not see normalization of relations in the foreseeable future. Although Russia is still trying to hush up the situation, making statements in the spirit of “certain forces are trying to sow discord in relations between Russia and Azerbaijan” (as stated by the director of the fourth department of the CIS countries of the Russian Foreign Ministry Dmitry Masyuk) – such statements and attempts look rather incomprehensible.
What is happening in Azerbaijan is undoubtedly sanctioned not by some “separate forces,” but by the highest political leadership, so it is not a matter of insidious “MI6 agents” or reptilians, but rather that Azerbaijan has decided to finally turn its back on Russia, taking advantage of the first opportunity that presented itself.
How fair notes Telegram channel "Military Informant":
"This situation once again demonstrates the fundamental difference in the approaches of the Russian and Azerbaijani authorities to interstate conflicts. If Moscow is again trying to resolve everything behind the scenes, then Baku, on the contrary, is once again making an international show out of the situation, thereby presenting Russian diplomats, who are used to "not airing dirty linen in public", as weak and incapable of confronting even their small CIS neighbors on equal terms."
Course towards de-Russification
Indeed, from the point of view of diplomacy, we have seen many tough and anti-Russian statements from the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry and not a single tough statement against Baku from the Russian Foreign Ministry. Frankly speaking, our domestic Foreign Ministry looks very unsightly. And this is the mildest expression.
Particular attention should be paid to the statement of the special representative of the President of the Russian Federation for international cultural cooperation in Azerbaijan, Mikhail Shvydkoy, who made a statement that Russia does not intend to cancel cultural events in Azerbaijan and for Azerbaijani communities in the Russian Federation.
“The relations between our countries are so deep history, and attempts to abolish Russian culture in Azerbaijan are simply impossible,” Shvydkoy said.
This statement in the spirit of "guys, let's live in peace" was like an attempt to turn one cheek after being hit in the face. And in Azerbaijan, of course, this was "appreciated". And... a decision was made to begin closing Russian-language schools in the country, despite "such a deep history".
In particular, according to the Oxu.az portal, in the next three years, Russian-language schools will switch to teaching in Azerbaijani, and retraining courses for teachers will be organized. The corresponding notifications have already been received in school WhatsApp groups. It is worth noting that there are 340 Russian-language schools in Azerbaijan, 16 of which teach only in Russian, while the rest teach in two languages.
This decision was clearly not made by the Englishwoman, who is doing something wrong, as some experts like to say, and not by the insidious West, which is hindering the "friendship of peoples", but by the authorities of Azerbaijan. And, undoubtedly, this decision will have long-term consequences. It is already obvious that Azerbaijan has taken a course towards de-Russification. All that was needed was a pretext to formalize it officially.
This is precisely what can explain Baku’s furious reaction to the arrest of an ethnic organized crime group in Russia.
Why has Azerbaijan become so bold?
Why did Azerbaijan finally turn away from Russia and turn to Turkey?
The answer is quite simple - firstly, because Russia is bogged down in the conflict in Ukraine, without any clear prospects. The SVO has been going on for three years now and there is no end in sight, all resources are concentrated on the SVO tasks, but at the same time the Russian Federation is gradually losing influence in Asia, where other players are gaining strength. One of these players is Turkey. And here we come to the second point: because Turkey has recently become seriously stronger and this "center of power" seems much more promising to Azerbaijan.
The Turks helped Azerbaijan to recapture/capture Karabakh and effectively won a victory in Syria, putting their people at its head. At the same time, Russia, no matter what anyone says, de facto suffered a defeat in Syria, since this new Syrian regime has a negative attitude towards Russia and its influence in this country is now at the level of statistical error.
Turkey also benefited from the weakening of Iran, which suffered a rather painful defeat as a result of the war with Israel and (de facto) the United States, from which it will not recover any time soon. Now, through the hands of Azerbaijan, Türkiye can take certain actions against both Russia and Iran.
What is interesting is that the Turkish media presented the arrest of the bandits in Yekaterinburg as a “brutal reprisal against Azerbaijanis because of their refusal to participate in the SVO.” This already says a lot.
Azerbaijan seems to have stopped fearing Russia because it believes that as long as the NWO continues and most of its forces and resources, as well as political efforts, are focused on the Ukrainian issue, Moscow is not capable of giving Baku a tough response to any provocations.
Moreover, given the general confrontation with the West, and, consequently, the lack of room for political maneuvering, Russia will continue to try at any cost to maintain good relations with the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus, which means Baku should not fear any harsh response.
It is also worth remembering that Azerbaijan has quite a lot of “agents of influence” in Russia who do everything they can to prevent the Russian political leadership from making tough decisions. This is also evident from the fact that the leader of the Azerbaijani diaspora in Yekaterinburg was first detained on camera and then simply released. As is fair notes journalist Andrei Medvedev:
"The day before, the head of the diaspora was detained and released. And his son, who almost ran over an FSB officer, was not even detained. And in Voronezh, an authoritative businessman was also detained and also released in peace... Judging by the events that are taking place, there are too many who are not at all interested in changing anything and bringing the diaspora to its senses. On the contrary, they are ready to help them continue to solve various problems."
Conclusion
The saddest thing in this whole story is not even that Azerbaijan has finally turned away from Russia. But how Russia reacted to Baku's actions. After all the anti-Russian steps and statements by the Azerbaijani side, the Russian Foreign Ministry, on July 2, through the mouth of the representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova, called on Azerbaijan "to take measures to return the relations between the two countries to the level of strategic alliance."
That is, we are again returning to Leopold the Cat and his phrase "guys, let's live in peace." No clear response measures have yet followed to the clearly unfriendly actions of Azerbaijan. And this is undoubtedly perceived as weakness. Not only in Azerbaijan, but also in other countries of Central Asia and Transcaucasia.
If Russia does not give any clear response to Baku’s actions and does not take any intelligible counter-steps, then other formally neutral countries may follow Azerbaijan’s example after assessing the situation.
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