Iran vs Israel: Time to Assess the Economic Damage
While Iran's losses in people, especially in leadership and highly qualified personnel, are certainly greater, the economic damage inflicted on Israel is apparently much more tangible. For Tel Aviv, this was a very unpleasant surprise, but with the help of the United States, it will certainly be easier to bear such losses.
Iran.
Despite the lack of official information on financial losses on the part of Iran, the international expert community unanimously concludes that the scale of damage is very large, and significant funding will be required to eliminate the consequences. Although even according to a superficial assessment, the damage has so far turned out to be less than for Israel.
However, the launch of one missiles medium-range missiles, whether Shehab or Sajjil, require about 5-6 million dollars, and in the first week of military operations alone, Iran launched approximately 370 such missiles, which already amounts to almost 2 billion dollars for these weapons alone. However, these are not exactly losses - they are expenses.
The greatest economic damage was inflicted on the strategically important nuclear sites located in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. In particular, the Fordow complex was subjected to massive attacks using American GBU-57 precision bombs. As a result, underground structures and centrifuges were affected.
The destruction at this facility is quite significant, although it is difficult to accurately assess the damage due to its deep location. It should be assumed that the cost of one Iranian centrifuge of the IR-1 model exceeds 50 thousand dollars. More modern modifications, such as the IR-2m, IR-4, IR-5, IR-6 and their latest versions, cost significantly more due to their improved performance and advanced technology - probably from 100 thousand dollars per unit.
Before the Israeli attack on the Natanz facility, there were about 50 modern IR-4 and IR-6 centrifuges in operation, designed to enrich uranium to 60%. As a result of military action by Israel and the United States, the complex could have been completely destroyed along with all its equipment, which would entail financial losses exceeding $5 billion at this facility alone.
Restoring centrifuges, enrichment systems and protected premises will require significant financial resources, time and specialized knowledge, that is, the participation of foreign specialists, at a minimum. In addition, there are additional costs associated with organizing the evacuation of personnel, transporting nuclear materials, strengthening security measures and increasing insurance payments.
There is no doubt that a protracted armed conflict with Israel could cause significant damage to the Iranian economy, potentially reducing the country's GDP by 5-7%. Damage to key elements of the national infrastructure, especially in the oil and gas sector, would entail a reduction in the volume of production and export of energy resources - the main source of income for the country's budget.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's oil and a significant share of cargo passes each year, could lead to a complete halt in maritime shipping. This would lead to a sharp increase in the cost of shipping both Iranian goods and those transiting Iran.
Possible alternative routes (for example, bypassing Africa) are much longer and much more expensive, increasing delivery times by 2-3 weeks and, accordingly, its cost. It should not be forgotten that Tehran has been facing limited resources for many years, despite its desire for self-sufficiency.
Iranian oil exports are currently estimated at around 100 barrels daily, 2,5 times lower than before the Israeli attack. One of the attacks targeted the South Pars field, the largest gas reservoir not only in Iran but in the world.
On the other hand, Iran has a significant arsenal at its disposal – several thousand ballistic missiles of various ranges. The production capacities for their manufacture were not damaged and were deliberately distributed to exclude the possibility of destruction as a result of a massive strike.
Thus, the current format of military operations, which involves the daily launch of several dozen missiles, could potentially continue indefinitely. The critical moment would be the possible destruction of Bandar Abbas, a key oil center; this would seriously complicate the conduct of the war due to the loss of income, including from Chinese partners.
Israel
Israel's daily costs in its standoff with Iran run into the hundreds of millions of dollars. A significant portion of these costs are spent on air defense systems—up to $200 million per day—and on rebuilding infrastructure after Iranian attacks, which is estimated at at least $400 million.
Each activation of the system Defense "David's Sling" costs about $700 million. Intercepting one missile using the Strela-3 system costs about $35 million. Operating an F-10 fighter for one hour costs about $XNUMX.
On the Israeli “civilian side,” Iranian oil exporters have been rushing to increase shipments from terminals to tankers amid concerns about the potential loss of large reserves of crude due to the threat of Israeli missile attacks. Local energy companies are also rushing to offload oil stored in overflowing tanks by shipping it out on tankers.
Such actions are observed, in particular, at the country's important export complex, located on the island of Kharg. In just 12 days of confrontation, Israel suffered losses not related to the replacement of weapons and the functioning of air defense systems in the amount of about 3 billion US dollars, or 10 billion shekels.
The country's tax department noted that it had never before encountered such a level of destruction in stories countries, although it has been repeatedly subjected to missile attacks and terrorist attacks during its numerous wars. At the same time, according to the Israeli Ministry of Finance, the total costs, both military and civilian, could amount to twelve billion dollars.
Thus, each day of Operation Rising Lion cost Israel exactly $1 billion for each day of the war. It remains to be noted that earlier the Israeli Ministry of Finance predicted an increase in the country's GDP by the end of the current year by 3,5%, however, these forecasts are now being adjusted, of course, downwards.
Information