Military Review

Directions of the Expansion of the Celestial

55
For the successful solution of foreign policy tasks, China needs powerful and highly efficient armed forces.


Beijing continues to show signs of increasing military activity. Along with the high rates of economic development, military construction is extremely high here. What caused the increased attention of the country's leadership to the development of the People’s Liberation Army of China?

Recently, there have been increasing speculations about the possibility of a military conflict between China and Japan over the disputed Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu). It has the Celestial Empire and other territorial claims: it considers the island of Taiwan to be an integral part of it, which was illegally turned away from him, and claims to be part of the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. In addition, the Chinese press discusses issues of “returning” Siberia and the Far East. Meeting these claims of China without the use of military force is unlikely.

At the same time, a number of domestic problems endanger further development, and under certain conditions, the very existence of China. Among them are overpopulation, and an insufficient amount of own raw materials reserves, primarily energy, and the task of further expanding sales markets, which will help maintain high rates of economic development.

The crises occurring in recent years in Western civilization have contributed to the weakening of its economic and military potential. The actual defeat of the United States and NATO in Iraq and Afghanistan, the failure of the Arab Spring operation show that the NATO military machine is not so effective. So, under favorable conditions, it can be successfully confronted.

This contributes to the formation in the Chinese establishment of the idea of ​​the necessity and possibility of protecting their economic and other interests abroad with the help of military force. However, its successful use requires powerful and highly efficient armed forces.

Potential PLA

The People’s Liberation Army of China (PLA) is today one of the largest in the world - about 2,3 million people, the reserve - about three million. Total mobilization resources suitable for military service of the population are about 200 million people.

Directions of the Expansion of the CelestialThe basis of the PLA - the ground forces are armed with military equipment mainly of their own design: from 8 to 10 thousand tanks (according to various sources), about six thousand armored fighting vehicles and 15 thousand towed and self-propelled field artillery guns, as well as about two thousand multiple launch rocket systems of various types and more than 15 thousand units of military air defense systems.

Nevertheless, the number of modern equipment in the ground forces of China is small and does not exceed 10 – 15 percent, depending on the type of weapon.

The weak point are the limited capabilities of the military air defense. In general, these troops are capable of carrying out operational regroupings in a very short time, successfully conducting large-scale offensive and defensive operations of a strategic scale.

With nearly 500 thousand people, the Chinese Air Force has a total of about 3500 aircraft of various classes. The most numerous kind of air force - fighter aviation (more than 30 percent of the total). The share of modern types of aircraft ranges from 10 to 25 percent.

Anti-aircraft missile forces are represented by 110 – 120 divisions of the air defense missile system. Of these, more than half of the obsolete types. In addition to the air defense system in the Air Force has a large number of anti-aircraft guns of various calibers.

In general, at present and in the near future, the Chinese Air Force can successfully withstand the air forces of individual regional states, even equipped with the most modern aircraft, such as the Japanese. However, for a successful struggle with the American aviation groups or a coalition of states led by the United States, their combat capabilities are not enough.

China’s naval forces comprise about 250 thousand people and have one medium-sized aircraft carrier (former Soviet “Varyag”), two nuclear submarines with ballistic missiles and five multi-purpose nuclear submarines. Also at the disposal of the Celestial Empire around 70 non-nuclear (diesel-electric) submarines and 60 destroyers and frigates, as well as more 160 mine-landing, landing ships and approximately 300 boats for various purposes.

Nuclear submarines of China are notable for high noise and in this regard have limited combat capabilities.

Sea-launched ballistic missiles have a firing range of less than 2000 kilometers, which, given the noise of their carriers, casts doubt on the ability of China’s marine nuclear system to create a threat to the United States. However, for regional countries, these ships are a source of serious nuclear threat.

Non-nuclear submarines are mostly obsolete types. Among the modern can be attributed only a few submarines project 877.

The share of modern units among ships and boats of other classes is small.

The absence on the absolute majority of surface ships of anti-aircraft missile systems makes their groups extremely vulnerable to the blows of modern means of air attack.

Naval aviation, despite its large number (about 700 aircraft of various classes and more 50 helicopters), has very limited ability to fight against high-tech adversary due to outdated aircraft and helicopter fleet.

Thus, it can be stated that at present the Chinese Navy is able to conduct effective operations only in the near-sea zone under the cover of ground defense aviation.

The nuclear missile forces of China have about 120 medium-range missiles and up to intercontinental 40 missiles. In addition, there are up to 200 tactical missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. The total number of nuclear weapons in China is estimated at about 400 units.

The analysis of the military personnel and capabilities of the PLA indicates that at present and in the near future it is capable of mainly large-scale successful operations in continental theaters of military operations. At sea, the PLA can rely on success only in the waters of the seas adjacent to its territory and subject to reliable cover of its forces fleet from air strikes.

China’s nuclear potential poses a serious threat both to the states of the region and to the United States. However, America can ward off the Chinese nuclear threat from itself, destroying a few Chinese intercontinental missiles by a preemptive strike against strategic nuclear and non-nuclear weapons.

Destination - Russia

Based on the analysis of the geography of world resources, as well as areas attractive for living (taking into account historical grounds for the right to own them and the stability of the ruling regimes in the respective states), several hypothetical vectors of the possible application of military force by China can be identified. And the first of them is the northern one.

The occupation of the territory belonging to Russia of Siberia and the Far East, at first glance, promises Beijing to solve almost all of its problems. First of all, it concerns overpopulation and the provision of its economy with natural resources. The geopolitical position of the country, which is significantly closer to the Middle Eastern region and Europe, will also significantly improve.

China can also count on getting a part of the Russian nuclear potential, which will allow it to ensure full-fledged nuclear deterrence by the United States.

Mastering the part of the Russian defense-industrial complex with its specialists located in Siberia and the Far East will give the PRC the latest military technical technologies and scientific schools for their further development.

However, the implementation of this expansion option is fraught for the Chinese state not only with huge losses, but also with possible death. Russia is nothing but nuclear weapons Chinese aggression can not answer.

If, in the event of a large-scale military aggression by China, the Russian leadership decides to use strategic and tactical nuclear weapons (even on a limited scale), the losses of the Chinese population and economy will be such that the potential gain from the occupation of new territories will not cover the damage suffered from a nuclear strike. A full-scale nuclear response will lead to the death of the People's Republic of China.

Beijing will not be the first to use nuclear weapons, since it will strive to occupy territories in a habitable state, while possessing an absolute superiority in general-purpose forces. Russia will be forced to launch a nuclear strike in order to destroy Chinese nuclear weapons as much as possible. The main part of China’s medium-range missiles (more than 80 percent) is unable to hit targets in the European part of the Russian Federation. A retaliatory nuclear strike from China can be inflicted mainly on the territory of Siberia and the Far East, that is, on those territories and objects, for the sake of seizure of which a military operation will begin.

If the Russian leadership does not dare to strike at China, then the United States and its NATO allies, as well as Japan and other countries of the Asia-Pacific region, facing the threat of turning China into an indisputable world dominant, are very likely to enter the war on the Russian side .

At the same time, the United States, delivering a preemptive strike with nuclear and non-nuclear strategic means, is capable of destroying China’s few intercontinental missiles. In the future, the Americans with impunity can deliver nuclear strikes on Chinese territory, forcing Beijing to cease hostilities. As a result, the economic and military potential of the state will be completely crushed, and the United States, most likely, having torn away from Russia a part of the territory of the Far East and Siberia, will consolidate on the Eurasian continent.

Any scenario as China attempts to seize Russian Siberia and the Far East will lead to the loss of most of its foreign markets and foreign assets.

Thus, the military operation against Russia has no positive prospects for Beijing. While the development of friendly relations brings him significant benefits.

Strengthening of economic Russian-Chinese relations gives the PRC a guaranteed security of its economy with energy resources and other types of raw materials, and the development of military-technical cooperation gives access to the most modern military technologies. The position consolidated with Russia in the international arena, in particular in the UN, is also important for China. Finally, the friendly relations of the two countries give grounds for Beijing to count on Russian nuclear deterrence in the confrontation with the United States. And the strategic nuclear potential of our country is almost 20 times higher than that in China.

Even more advantageous to Beijing is the creation of a Russian-Chinese military-political union that would significantly expand the geography of Chinese interests. In addition, China could well count on the assistance of the Russian Armed Forces. This is especially true in the near and partly medium term - while the Chinese Navy is not ready for action in the seas and oceans that are far from its coast.

Cooperation with Moscow is much more profitable for Beijing than confrontation and the more direct confrontation. The likelihood of China’s military conflict with Russia, at least in the short term, is negligible.

Obviously, but unlikely

Another possible direction for Beijing’s use of military power is the southeast, that is, the regions of Southeast Asia, which are rich in energy resources, with a population ethnically close to China, and a significant Chinese diaspora.

The Chinese economic and demographic expansion in this direction has been going on for a long time and very successfully. Political consolidation of its results can be carried out in the course of the natural process or as a result of various coups.

The use of military force by China in these conditions may be required to support friendly political forces in the event of armed confrontation. The insular character of the region dictates the determining role in such fleet operations. However, the limited capabilities of the Chinese Navy will allow only local military actions and subject to the absence of opposition from the US Navy.

The most extensive use of military force by China can be expected in this direction in the struggle for the disputed Senkaku Islands and for Taiwan.

An escalation of a possible military conflict with Japan over Senkaku will inevitably lead to the US being drawn into it as an ally of Japan, which will force China to abandon the buildup of military confrontation. But given the great economic importance of these islands, the likelihood of such a conflict, even in the short term, is quite high.

Hostilities for the island of Taiwan may begin if a part of the island’s political groups oriented towards reunification with China are subjected to repression or gross violations of the political process infringing their rights are fixed.

The military operation against Taiwan can also begin as a result of a massive provocation on its part against China. In this case, given the proximity of the island to the Chinese coast, Beijing will undertake a landing operation of a strategic scale involving the main forces of its fleet and air force, as well as significant contingents of ground forces. The total number of troops in such an operation on the part of China is capable of reaching a million or more.

In addition, the view of China can be turned to the southwest - the zone of the Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal. The reason for the use of military force here can serve as a territorial dispute with India over part of the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh.

The presence of nuclear weapons in China and India, as well as the geography of the area of ​​possible hostilities, determine the limitation of this conflict by the scale of a local war using each side of groups of no more than 200 – 300 thousand, which will be based on the Air Force and ground forces. Given the limited value for China of these disputed territories, the likelihood of such a conflict, at least in the short term, can be considered low.

The intensive development of relations with Pakistan, the unstable domestic political situation in this country, as well as in Afghanistan, create favorable conditions for the spread of Chinese influence on these states, which promises China getting access to the Arabian Sea - the most important hub of oil communications.

Here China can use military force to support friendly domestic political forces in the event of political chaos in these countries or to help them repel external aggression.

In the first case, it is a peacekeeping operation under the auspices of the UN, in the second - a full-scale military operation, carried out either at the request of the country's leadership or under a UN mandate. In both cases, the ground forces of the Chinese group will be the ground forces, the Air Force and the Navy.

And the last, fourth direction is African. At present, China is very actively taking root in the economy of African states. However, the remoteness of this region from the territory of China and the weakness of the Chinese Navy practically exclude the possibility of military support for Chinese interests in it.

Thus, with the exception of a possible military operation against Taiwan of large-scale use of military force by China, there is no reason to expect. The main limiting factor is the weakness of the Chinese Navy. That is why the Chinese leadership today focuses on the development of its fleet.
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  1. Romn
    Romn April 11 2013 06: 34 New
    +8
    Nowadays, the possibility of a full-scale war between large rivals (such as Russia, China and the United States) is unlikely, because even in case of victory the losses will be too great. Especially for China, although it is a strong power, but it does not have experience in conducting major wars, and looking at its entire army, it can take nothing more than quantity, but I think we will definitely find millions of rounds of 200. In general, there are no friends and there will not be friends around our country, if you want peace, prepare for war!
    1. Kolya
      Kolya April 11 2013 08: 24 New
      +5
      A full-blown information war is already in full swing!
    2. Geisenberg
      Geisenberg April 11 2013 09: 59 New
      +1
      The possibility of waging a full-scale war is excluded because there will simply be no winners. There will be no one left who can say that the war is won, and those who will be sitting in the bunkers will rest before the nuclear winter ends.
    3. NKVD
      NKVD April 11 2013 11: 43 New
      +3
      В военной доктрине России сказано,что если Россия в войне будет терпеть поражение то она (Россия) может первая применить ядерное оружие.Намёк всем нашим "друзьям".PS Эта доктрина разработали ещё при ЕБН когда армия была в полной жопе...Хотя она ещё я думаю актуальна и сейчас.
  2. Nesvet Nezar
    Nesvet Nezar April 11 2013 06: 47 New
    +7
    The journalism of the article is not impressive. Set of deliberate reasoning. One and the same, one and the same. These arguments have appeared many times on the Internet with virtually no additions. Why is there no information on Latin America? China sits in Latin America. Why aren’t Russian journalists as the Russian auto industry or anything new to us - a research one? Dear JOURNALISTS please us with analytics, and not by dragging Infa from article to article. Thank you in advance!!!
  3. svp67
    svp67 April 11 2013 06: 57 New
    +3
    Очередная страшилка.Тут как бы не произошло, как в той сказке про мальчика-пастушка, который в шутку часто кричал "Волки".У Китая пока очень много интересов в нашей стране,и он не будет их решать военным путем, если есть возможность договориться. Тем более, что руководство Китая знает, что в случае военного конфликта Россия оставляет за собой право применить ЯО первой,а при таком сценарии от КНР останется - радиоактивная пустыня... Вот когда исчезнет возможность договариваться и наше ЯО будет нейтрализовано,тогда действительно наступит время кричать "Волки!!!"
    1. Sirocco
      Sirocco April 11 2013 08: 07 New
      +4
      Quote: svp67
      Another horror story.

      I support, again someone is trying to push Russia and China against their foreheads. China will not conquer us; He is already among us. Assimilation is proceeding slowly with the tacit consent of the Russian authorities. With the same success, they offered us their culture, Horoscopes, Feng Shui, and more. So in half a century, the whole Far East will speak Chinese, and with whom then to fight?
  4. fenix57
    fenix57 April 11 2013 06: 58 New
    +1
    HELLO. The beginning of the article is, well, frightening. Что касаемо России- "ушко востро держать" так просто необходимо. Азия-"зарежет с улыбкой на лице и безмятежным взглядом".
    Quote: Romn
    . In general, there are no friends and there will not be friends around our country, if you want peace, prepare for war!

    So Russia could be convinced of it. Only partners. Friends are luxury not permissible. hi
  5. Per se.
    Per se. April 11 2013 07: 04 New
    +3
    "Таким образом, военная операция против России не имеет для Пекина никаких позитивных перспектив. В то время как развитие дружественных отношений несет ему существенные выгоды." Замечательно, вот, только, нужно всегда помнить, что подобные прогнозы справедливы на конкретное время оценки перспектив (всё может изменится в мире) и, главное, при обязательной самодостаточности России в своей обороноспособности. Второе, Китаю не обязательно лезть на рожон, захват наших территорий может происходить и путем их заселения выходцами из Китая, скупкой предприятий и иным усилением своего влияния в регионах Сибири и Дальнего Востока, что, собственно, уже и происходит. Возвращаясь непосредственно к военному сценарию, не стоит забывать вариант Косово или Сирии, где сам Китай формально может не находиться в состоянии войны с Россией, но решать свою экспансию на Север поддержкой сепаратистов, придумают новых региональных "укров", тунгусов, манджур, кого угодно. Наконец, и сама НОАК стремительно набирает мощь, и не факт, что быстрая оккупация земель до Урала не может вынашиваться китайским руководством. Хотелось бы верить в мир и дружбу во всём мире, но история учит, что считаются только с сильными, и ещё, не надо искушать судьбу, вооружая Китай своим современным оружием, которого ещё и в своей армии не хватает.
    1. Bigriver
      Bigriver April 11 2013 07: 31 New
      +5
      Quote: Per se.
      ... you must always remember that such forecasts are valid for a specific time assessment of prospects ...

      Second, China doesn’t have to run into trouble, the seizure of our territories can also occur by settling immigrants from China, buying up enterprises and otherwise strengthening its influence in the regions of Siberia and the Far East, which, in fact, is already happening.

      On the first - fair.
      On the second.
      What are the territories inhabited by immigrants from China. And tell us how it looks in practice in general? winked
      Show the frightening dynamics of the purchase of our enterprises by the Chinese, as well as other facts that speak of the strengthening of influence in Siberia and the Far East.
      For your information.
      China today is not even one of the five major, largest investors in Far Eastern projects.
      1. Per se.
        Per se. April 11 2013 08: 11 New
        +2
        Quote: BigRiver
        China today is not even one of the five major, largest investors in Far Eastern projects.
        Это сегодня не входит, так "ещё не вечер", у нас, ведь, приветствуются иностранные инвестиции в экономику, чем здесь Китай хуже. По территориям, Вы в Хабаровске спросите, сколько там уже китайцев, да и в центральной России наши работящие друзья давно живут и трудятся на тех же арендованных огородах, снимая при помощи своей волшебной химии по нескольку урожаев. Весь ширпотреб в России из Китая, тряпки, игрушки, электроника, велосипеды и т.д., проще сказать, что не из Китая осталось. Про "устрашающую динамику" я вообще не говорил, не передёргивайте, речь шла о возможной перспективе. Наконец, хотите верить в любовь и дружбу с теми, кто не стесняется рисовать географические карты своих территорий до Урала, незаконно копирует нашу военную технику, Ваше право. Я высказал так же, лишь своё мнение, не более.
        1. Bigriver
          Bigriver April 11 2013 08: 21 New
          +1
          Quote: Per se.

          Это сегодня не входит, так "ещё не вечер", у нас, ведь, приветствуются иностранные инвестиции в экономику, чем здесь Китай хуже.
          In the territories You ask in Khabarovskhow many Chinese are already there,
          Finally, the want to believe in love and friendship with those who do not hesitate to draw geographical maps of their territories to the Urals, illegally copies our military equipment, your right. I expressed the same way, only my opinion, no more.

          We would be glad to have been a Chinese investment, as well as others - but they are not! fellow
          Мне опрашивать население в Хабаровске ни к чему, я здесь живу 3-й десяток лет. И всякое "заселение", о котором любят толковать далекие от темы товарищи - есть чушь и ковыряние в носу.
          The third. About faith.
          Faith is the department of God.
          And our conclusions, opinions, should be based on knowledge and facts. If neither knowledge nor facts is dumb - what is it called? winked
          1. Per se.
            Per se. April 11 2013 10: 10 New
            +4
            Quote: BigRiver
            Мне опрашивать население в Хабаровске ни к чему, я здесь живу 3-й десяток лет. И всякое "заселение", о котором любят толковать далекие от темы товарищи - есть чушь и ковыряние в носу.
            В январе этого года была информация по ФСБ, где по Хабаровскому краю в 2012 году было пресечено более тысячи случаев незаконной легализации китайских мигрантов. В России уже свершившийся факт, - китайская диаспора. Вы, словно, отрицаете проблему, где с одной стороны большие территории и малое население, а с другой перенаселенность, придвинутая к нашим границам. По инвестициям притензии не ко мне, но если Китаю позволить строить у нас заводы и завозить на них своих рабочих, "инвестиции", надо полагать, пойдут. Но, надо ли подобное?
            1. Bigriver
              Bigriver April 11 2013 11: 29 New
              +1
              Quote: Per se.
              In January of this year, there was information on the FSB, where in the Khabarovsk Territory in 2012 more than a thousand cases of illegal legalization of Chinese migrants were suppressed.
              You seem to deny the problem, where on the one hand there are large territories and a small population, and on the other, overpopulation pushed to our borders.
              По инвестициям притензии не ко мне, но если Китаю позволить строить у нас заводы и завозить на них своих рабочих, "инвестиции", надо полагать, пойдут. Но, надо ли подобное?

              90% of all illegal and international migration gives us the border with Kazakhstan.
              Obviously, from this fact alone it is necessary to conclude that Kazakhstan wants to fill us. So?
              The study of the problem (any) should be done by specialists. These experts argue that the activities of migrants do not pose a threat to the interests of Russia and the population of the Far East.
              If these conclusions do not suit you, take up the topic, and with the numbers and facts on hand, prove the opposite to everyone.

              About "...где с одной стороны большие территории и малое население, а с другой перенаселенность, придвинутая к нашим границам... - You are very confused.
              Small populations and the poorest provinces of China are brought to our borders.
              Well, here's the thing:
              "...если Китаю позволить строить у нас заводы и завозить на них своих рабочих, "инвестиции", надо полагать, пойдут. Но, надо ли подобное?
              Why are you talking about this? Whose idea is this? Yours
              And you are unhappy with her? winked
              1. Per se.
                Per se. April 11 2013 13: 13 New
                +2
                Quote: BigRiver
                The study of the problem (any) should be done by specialists. These experts argue that the activities of migrants do not pose a threat to the interests of Russia and the population of the Far East.
                Специалисты утверждают... Какие, для кого, и, чьи специалисты? Там полно различных мнений, нередко, диаметрально противоположных. У Эрнеста Хемингуэйя есть рассказ "На Биг-Ривер", который заканчивается словами: "Он оглянулся. Река чуть виднелась между деревьями. Впереди было еще много дней, когда он сможет ловить форелей на болоте." Это я к тому, что на Уссури и Амуре скоро нечего будет ловить, наши китайские друзья-браконьеры ловят "форелей" всем, чем возможно, это лакмус отношения китайцев к российским ресурсам, как и вырубка леса. Не надо, уважаемый Владимир, сравнивать мигрантов из Казахстана с Китаем. Северный Казахстан, в советские времена, в основном был заселен русскими, да и не с Казахстаном у нас были события на Даманском. Дадите сейчас китайцам палец, завтра они нам руку откусят до самой шеи. Уж, извините, мнение могут иметь не только специалисты, а если Вы считаете себя большим спецом по проблеме, Вам и флаг в руки. - доказывайте, что Китай наш друг и все страхи напрасны. DIXI!
                1. Bigriver
                  Bigriver April 12 2013 03: 41 New
                  0
                  Quote: Per se.
                  ... Well, excuse me, not only experts can have an opinion, but if you consider yourself a great expert on the problem, you have the flag in your hands. - prove that China is our friend and all fears are in vain. DIXI!

                  My opinion is simple :)
                  In order to talk about the trend of something or any, you need to give a factual.
                  If there is no fact, then your fears are phantom.
                  At the front, in the Second World War it often happened. When this or that soldier with a weak mentality began to shout: they are surrounded !!! Commanders betrayed us !!! Brothers, let's tick !!!
                  What is the commander obligated to do with such a soldier in a combat situation? wink
                  Bullet in the forehead.
              2. Marek Rozny
                Marek Rozny April 15 2013 13: 41 New
                +3
                Quote: BigRiver
                90% of all illegal and international migration gives us the border with Kazakhstan.

                Do not confuse sour with salty. Citizens of third states legally enter transit into the territory of Kazakhstan and just as legally leave it at the Kazakh-Russian border.
                Foreigners enter Russia legally. It is illegal to work for you. And there are no legal reasons for not letting them into the territory of the KZ or the Russian Federation.
    2. Murat 09
      Murat 09 April 11 2013 08: 01 New
      +4
      True noticed, well said good
  6. Cutter
    Cutter April 11 2013 07: 05 New
    +7
    Все таки, что ни говори,а приятно иметь КНР в союзниках. Много знакомых имеют недвижимость в Даляне и других городах.В отличие от Тайланда,Южной кореи и Японии, наиболее дружелюбное отношение.Категорично считаю надуманной проблему экспансии и захвата Дальневосточного региона. У Китайцев традиционная сфера деятельности рыночная (С лотков) торговля, общепит и сельское хозяйство, на большее, тем более на местную муниципальную власть не претендуют в отличие от "Кавказких" друзей. В массе Законопослушны и толерантны.Не вижу ни каких проблем в присутствии данных мигрантов. Живут тихо, мирно, работают и платят налоги, в чужой монастырь со своим уставом не лезут ( к чужой религии относятся с подчтением). Создают конкуренцию Кавказкой и Среднеазиатской экспансии.
    1. Murat 09
      Murat 09 April 11 2013 07: 41 New
      +2
      Read the history of Khazaria, there, at the beginning, the newcomer population of the Jews was tolerant, the market sphere, like the Chinese, was no problem for 150-200 years, the Turkic elite of Khazaria married the Jews, and then the coup, the Turkic elite of the soldiers were cut out, people into slavery for 200 years, until Svyatoslav defeated Khazaria. So it is possible that the Chinese act according to the plan of their government, quietly peacefully, imperceptibly, expanding their expansion. So it is good to have allies in the PRC, but their development must be done together, both by Russians, Caucasians, and Central Asians, or even separately they can eat us. And as for the article, it’s somehow not systematic, is it chaotic or something.
    2. Ascetic
      Ascetic April 11 2013 12: 22 New
      +1
      Quote: Cutter
      У Китайцев традиционная сфера деятельности рыночная (С лотков) торговля, общепит и сельское хозяйство, на большее, тем более на местную муниципальную власть не претендуют в отличие от "Кавказких" друзей. В массе Законопослушны и толерантны.Не вижу ни каких проблем в присутствии данных мигрантов. Живут тихо, мирно, работают и платят налоги, в чужой монастырь со своим уставом не лезут ( к чужой религии относятся с подчтением). Создают конкуренцию Кавказкой и Среднеазиатской экспансии


      Cherkizon was closed, about 70 thousand merchants immediately left for their homeland, and those who were not afraid of the higher rents and requisitions of their and our mafia (security officials) organized Lublizon (Moscow shopping center and Sadovod market), where everyone lives secretly and without corns eyes. The Chinese are a very closed community, and they primarily go to their own. Theirs is Huaqiao, influential Chinese immigrants. Usually they are experienced immigrants who have already settled down in a new place.
      Huaqiao formally closed to the consular department, They are periodically collected when it is necessary to discuss something important for the community. Once a year, China hosts huaqiao meetings from around the world. They come together for three days, drink, walk. And at the same time, a high official is necessarily present, at the level of the 1st party secretary.
      And then huaqiao shockly work for the good of the homeland. For example, in Indonesia they control 73% of the local economy. And in the legal sector. But in Russia it doesn’t work out that way. We generally treat foreign investors incorrectly, after all, the very Chinese raised their economy precisely on this. We have bribes, kickbacks. Therefore, for example, they are not allowed on Olympic construction sites, although they are some of the best contractors in the world. Their prices are lower, the quality is higher - and they are not interesting to our lovers of "cut". At the same time, the Chinese in Moscow are successfully engaged in telecommunications, selling cars, computer equipment, and electronics. But compared to other countries, there are extremely few of them.

      Sergey Sanakoev. Head of the Russian-Chinese Center for Trade and Economic Cooperation
  7. Alexander Romanov
    Alexander Romanov April 11 2013 07: 10 New
    +5
    A warrior with Russia will turn China from a prosperous world power into a stone age. There will be nothing, not factories that need wood, not the oil sector, only ruins. Yes, and Beijing itself will become a desert. Blah Blah Blah and all. A set of options and no more.
    1. Kaa
      Kaa April 11 2013 07: 24 New
      +7
      Quote: Alexander Romanov
      Blah Blah Blah and all. A set of options and no more

      Good morning! True noticed. The main option - Russia with its weapons and resources - is a tidbit for both the States and China, so both will be courted. Once the MAO said that we need to become like a wise monkey who, sitting on a tree, watches a tiger fight with a bear, bearing in mind the confrontation between the USA and the USSR. Now it’s time for the bear to watch the battle of the eagle and the dragon from the side so that it doesn’t get into the harlot and save the fat. Well, there you can bark ...
    2. Murat 09
      Murat 09 April 11 2013 07: 54 New
      +3
      Alexander, but where is the confidence that our elite will not flee to the west during the war, but will do its duty and fight the aggressor. After delivering an atomic strike on China, you need to expect a retaliatory nuclear strike, but you want to live, especially when there is castles, mansions, heifers on the Cote d'Azur. And where is the guarantee that the aggressor simply will not buy generals in bulk, as in Iraq. So Putin needs to change this elite first of all.
      1. Alexander Romanov
        Alexander Romanov April 11 2013 08: 48 New
        +4
        Цитата: Мурат 09
        Alexander, and where is the confidence that our elite will not flee to the west during the war,

        А кому наша "элита" там нужна.выброси из страны всех НКОшников и под мостами будут жить,с теми будет тоже самое.Они им нужны здесь,там они пустое место.
        1. Murat 09
          Murat 09 April 11 2013 08: 50 New
          +3
          Это то верно, но разве наша "элита" это го понимает. Если бы понимала, то не хапала бы а пускала бы эти деньги на развитие страны.
      2. Kaa
        Kaa April 11 2013 09: 37 New
        +7
        Цитата: Мурат 09
        . So Putin needs to change this elite in the first place.

        Как говорил Сталин в таких случаях "Гинденбургов у меня нет".А как писали в советское время в транспорте -"Лучший контроль-ваша совесть", но контролеры все равно ходили.
      3. datur
        datur April 11 2013 13: 25 New
        +3
        [quote = Murat 09] Alexander, and where is the confidence that our elite will not flee to the west during the war, but will do its duty and fight the aggressor. After delivering an atomic strike on China, we must expect a retaliatory nuclear strike, but live you want it, especially when there are castles, mansions, heifers on the Cote d'Azur. And where is the guarantee that the aggressor simply will not buy the generals in bulk, like in Iraq. So Putin needs to change this elite first of all --- just like Cyprus showed ours, elite ,, yes that in the west all that they have repeat - while the West permits them! yes just that and everything was yours became them !!!! laughing and they can rock the boat and throw a scarf wassat democracy you understand !!!! winked
  8. Horn
    Horn April 11 2013 07: 11 New
    0
    Somehow, all the authors of the horror stories about the consequences of a nuclear strike forget that in Hiroshima and Nagasaki people LIVE. They live now, and not after a few thousand years. Something's dirty here ...
    1. Ascetic
      Ascetic April 11 2013 12: 48 New
      +1
      Quote: Horn
      Something's dirty here ...


      Как говорили наши ветераны, точность попадания компенсируется мощностью заряда. Мощность "Малыша" не превышала 10кт насколько я помню. А допусти высотный взрыв челябинского метеорита ученые оценили в 500кт.
      Various buildings within a radius of 2 kilometers from the epicenter of the explosion were completely destroyed, and within a radius of 12 kilometers were more or less significantly destroyed. People died or received severe burns within 8,6 kilometers, trees and grass were charred at a distance of up to 4 kilometers. As a result of the explosion and the fires that followed, it was turned to ashes up to 9/10 of all the houses of the city, of which there were 95 thousand.

      link

      If you extrapolate to Moscow (an explosion in the Kremlin area), for example, such a picture will only blow the center of the city with a shock wave and fires and the radiation will be within the Boulevard Ring. and a radioactive cloud will form based on the direction of the wind,

      1. I think so
        I think so April 11 2013 16: 13 New
        +2
        Respected! Who gave you such nonsense as the power of the Chelyabinsk meteorite at half a megaton? One of NASA blurted out this mututu, and then the boobs trumpeted it. So the RAL power of the Chelyabinsk meteorite did not exceed 500 tons. Those. THOUSAND times less than you say. With a half-megaton explosion from Chelyabinsk and its environs, only ash would remain in the radius of HUNDRED kilometers ...
  9. Svatdevostator
    Svatdevostator April 11 2013 07: 32 New
    -1
    Substantive article. I would not want a war with China, it is painfully cunning ... they are.
  10. fenix57
    fenix57 April 11 2013 07: 47 New
    +2
    Quote: Kaa
    Once the MAO said that you need to be like a wise monkey who, sitting on a tree, watches a tiger fight with a bear, referring to the confrontation between the USA and the USSR

    In the mid-80s, everything changed somewhat: a smart monkey should not allow a bear to fight a tiger. hi
    1. Bigriver
      Bigriver April 11 2013 07: 53 New
      +3
      Quote: fenix57

      In the mid-80s, everything changed somewhat: a smart monkey should not allow a bear to fight a tiger. hi

      And in the 2000s, everyone changed roles. USA became a monkey laughing
    2. Kaa
      Kaa April 11 2013 08: 55 New
      +1
      Quote: fenix57
      smart monkey should not allow a bear to fight with a tiger

      Мы теперь сами с "Булавами" wassat and there is where and to whom to embed, Typhoons, for example, in the right places to organize ...
      1. I think so
        I think so April 11 2013 16: 19 New
        -2
        Чем чем а уж "Булавами" только насмешишь. Слабая ракета и еще и реально не испытанная. Да и по ВСЕМ параметрам хуже, чем теперешние стоящие на вооружении ... Деградация и вооруженных сил и ядерной составляющей России налицо ... Остается только подождать немного, усилить ПРО ... и бери этих субчиков тепленькими ... вернее их территорию сами они никому никогда не нужны ни были ни будут ...
        1. hrych
          hrych April 11 2013 17: 15 New
          +3
          Firstly, the other day there was a successful salvo launch of two Clubs, and secondly, the missile defense heads for the ABM are too tough (if you are in the topic of the principles of the ABM operation). Laugh on our laughing friend.
    3. hrych
      hrych April 11 2013 16: 07 New
      +4
      Now the teddy bear and the tiger stopped fighting and the tiger decided to pop this mocking monkey.
  11. Ragnarek
    Ragnarek April 11 2013 07: 58 New
    +2
    The author. In China, the entire northern part is unpopulated, why does it need the territory further north? The whole expansion of China is directed to the south, where most of the population lives. in addition, the Chinese leadership is not stupid, they do not need a war that will bring down the Chinese economy, at the moment there are excellent relations between China and Russia, territorial disputes are resolved, and western mongrels are pumped by hysteria by which this union bone across the throat.
    At the expense of military potential - China has not won a single war in history, near a small Taiwan, which China cannot return.
  12. Apollo
    Apollo April 11 2013 08: 03 New
    +4
    Territorial claims are even reflected on the passports of Chinese citizens,
  13. Kazbek
    Kazbek April 11 2013 08: 06 New
    +4
    Yes, why fight China, they just marry the Russians and slowly become their own, and in years 200 understand who is who. When they become more they will require autonomy and there will be a Chinese autonomous republic.
    1. Bigriver
      Bigriver April 11 2013 08: 36 New
      +5
      Quote: Kazbek
      Why the hell to fight China, they just marry the Russians and slowly become their own ...

      You are new to Chinese culture, philosophy and ideology smile
      No offense, okay? love
      They do not become their own anywhere (do not assimilate), but everywhere they live apart, keeping
      roots.
  14. VadimSt
    VadimSt April 11 2013 08: 13 New
    +1
    Thus, the military operation against Russia has no positive prospects for Beijing. While the development of friendly relations brings him significant benefits.

    Perhaps the most sober and pragmatic conclusions!

    When you read some authors - breathtaking.
    The Russians must disrupt the deal of the century - the sale by Putin and Medvedev of the Far East and Siberia to China.
    Единственными возможными союзниками русских в предотвращении этой "сделки века" Медведева-Путина с Китаем являются США, страны НАТО и, возможно, Япония, не заинтересованные в чрезмерном увеличении потенциала и могущества Китая за счет русских Восточных территорий.
    The agreements on the gradual transfer of the Far East and Siberia to China have already been signed by Putin and Medvedev. The implementation of these agreements has begun. Within the next less than ten years, the Eastern territories of Russia will be transferred to Chinese business, settled by the Chinese and de facto transferred to the control of China.
    Source - http://newsland.com/news/detail/id/852937/
    Patriotism and concern for the homeland, in favor of the West, and rushing!
  15. fenix57
    fenix57 April 11 2013 08: 26 New
    0
    Quote: Kazbek
    Yes, why fight China, they just marry the Russians and slowly become their own

    [b] Those who marry their Russian will not, but a child born in Russia will automatically become a citizen of the Russian Federation.

    Quote: Apollon
    Territorial claims are even reflected on the passports of Chinese citizens,

    And not only on the passports, there are cards, though very outdated, but ...
    1. antiaircrafter
      antiaircrafter April 11 2013 22: 19 New
      0
      Quote: fenix57
      a child born in Russia automatically becomes a citizen of the Russian Federation.

      No, not automatically. Read the law on citizenship of the Russian Federation.
  16. Mikhail Topor
    Mikhail Topor April 11 2013 08: 30 New
    0
    Is China replacing the USA in Pakistan? As if from this substitution within the BRICS, a conflict did not arise between India and Pakistan. Will they be able to agree, will they? Pakistan, anyway, used to be part of India
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov April 11 2013 08: 51 New
      +3
      Цитата: Михаил Топор
      As if from this substitution within the BRICS, a conflict did not arise between India and Pakistan.

      Pakistan is not part of the BRICS, and then territorial disputes between India and China do not prevent the organization from continuing to gain political weight hi
      1. Apollo
        Apollo April 11 2013 09: 27 New
        +2
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        Pakistan is not a member of the BRICS


        for Mikhail Topor
    2. I think so
      I think so April 11 2013 16: 53 New
      +1
      Pakistan NEVER was part of India. This is a Muslim state, unlike India. Historically, Pakistan is the remainder of the Mughal Empire, which did not include the territory of present-day India. You need to be careful with your tongue, or you’ll think that here you’ll litter your brains with other thoughts for your jerk ...
  17. fenix57
    fenix57 April 11 2013 08: 52 New
    0
    [b]По поводу китайской пропаганды можно увидеть и прочитать в google если набрать "китайские карты- Самое интересное в блогах". Не пожалеете![/B] hi
  18. Vtel
    Vtel April 11 2013 10: 24 New
    +2
    If the Russian leadership does not dare to strike at China, then the United States and its NATO allies, as well as Japan and other countries of the Asia-Pacific region, facing the threat of turning China into an indisputable world dominant, are very likely to enter the war on the Russian side .

    Ой ли? "Cъел волк кобылу оставил хвост да гриву"
  19. KoRSaR1
    KoRSaR1 April 11 2013 15: 14 New
    +1
    Направление – Россия - Ни о чём вообще, на чём строился анализ не понятно, ну 205 миллионов китаёз, а у нас что, автоматов нет? Наносить ядерные удары ни кто не будет, есть "искандер" - нет ядерных ракет Китая, есть у них варяг? У нас есть ракеты гранит, по сути китайцы могут захватить территорию, но удержать её врятли. Мы тож не пальцем деланные! Ещё говорят, "не буди спящего медведя, если ни хочешь закончить как завтрак". А так для справки, дальний восток и так уже захвачен китаёзами, посмотрите сколько их там, на рынок зайти, и попасть в чайна-таун, да раз плюнуть.
  20. taseka
    taseka April 11 2013 15: 26 New
    0
    "Главным ограничивающим фактором является слабость китайских ВМС." "What I doubt, even compared to us! A sleeping tiger is dangerous !!!"
  21. I think so
    I think so April 11 2013 15: 57 New
    0
    Анализ ситуации произведен крайне слабо. Вообще не отражена ВНУТРЕННЯЯ доктрина Китая, которую он исповедует СОТНИ лет. И суть этой доктирины - не лезть в чужие дела и не пускать никого в свои. Думаю этим и будет ВСЕГДА обусловлено поведение Китая на внешней арене. А уж бред насчет нападения Китая на кого-то так и вообще нельзя рассматривать не вдаваясь в клинические особенности авторов таких предположений. Китай завоюет все, что ему надо МИРНО и ТИХО. Все придут к нему САМИ, кто прячась от агрессии пин.досов, кто видя бОльшую выгоду от связи с Китаем, чем от непредсказуемых и лживых пин.досовских руководителей, могущих сдать и физически истребить бывших своих "жрузей" ... Общий вывод - Китай будет ВСЕГДА только защищаться в военном плане и проводить тихую мирную экспансию на интересующие его территории и только с СОГЛАСИЯ нынешних обитателей этих территорий ...
  22. Boot under the carpet
    Boot under the carpet April 11 2013 16: 55 New
    0
    Russia cannot answer with anything other than nuclear weapons of Chinese aggression.

    Here I would not be so sure.
  23. MAG
    MAG April 11 2013 17: 58 New
    +2
    And who said that the west in the attack by China will come on our side! As soon as the west sees our weakness, they will rush from all sides to snatch a piece as during the intervention. If China decides only with the support of the West, and we won’t extend the war on 2 fronts and it remains only to blow up the whole planet, I think so if I and my children will not live on my land, then let everything burn with a blue flame !!! If the West and China will know such moods, then they will NEVER be solved
  24. Avenger711
    Avenger711 April 11 2013 18: 51 New
    +1
    First of all, this concerns the overpopulation and provision of its economy with natural resources.


    In China, there has long been no overpopulation in general, cities on the coast are crowded, and in the north, there are not enough people in the north near the borders with Russia and in the outback. The Chinese do not want to live there, it’s like in our north, where only for a long yuan. In the Russian Far East itself, trillions must be invested first in production, and then only rejoice at resources.
  25. Alikovo
    Alikovo April 12 2013 00: 12 New
    0
    along the border with Russia, China has a dense population and a well-developed infrastructure. in the event of aggression, simply plunder the entire territory of China 70-90 km from the border.
  26. Kazbek
    Kazbek April 12 2013 22: 08 New
    +1
    I mean their children and grandchildren who will be citizens of Russia. It’s clear that in years 200 they will not be, but the descendants, although Russian citizens, will still be Chinese.
  27. Max otto
    Max otto April 12 2013 23: 00 New
    0
    Overpopulation of China is a myth, only east and south are overpopulated, here is a view from space, http://www.bygeo.ru/novosti/mir/491-ogni-zemli-nochyu.html the empty half of China is clearly visible. So the next 100 years, Russia can safely deal with their problems in the Far East, while they are mastering themselves.
  28. gladiatorakz
    gladiatorakz April 13 2013 13: 00 New
    0
    Идет демографическая, экономическая экспансия. С элементами информационной войны. Так что Китай успешно добивается своей цели без "горячей" войны. Кто будет на ДВ и в Сибири через 30 лет? Судя по динамике заселения (китайцев) и выселения (русских)? Надо крепко заселять регион. По Столыпину. И китайскую диаспору в жесткие рамки. Причем надо заселять с "избытком" laughing so that enough for Alaska.