Military Review

"Overlord" in Peking. The Celestial Empire is already able to carry out a large-scale airborne assault operation

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The question of the possibility of China seizing Taiwan by military means has arisen since the formation of a state independent of Beijing on the island in 1949. Throughout the second half of the twentieth century, this question was purely rhetorical, because the United States stood behind Taipei, and besides, Taiwan itself was strong enough to repel Chinese aggression. The situation changed radically in just 10 years. This happened so fast that it is still not fully realized even in Taiwan itself. Many people there now believe, firstly, in helping the United States, and secondly, in the ability to maintain the balance of power on their own.


However, these hopes are illusory. China's GDP today is at least 10 times higher than Taiwan's GDP. China’s scientific and technological capabilities are not lower than Taiwan’s, and its production capacity is not even much, but much more. Therefore, there can be no talk of maintaining a balance; China’s advantage will grow faster and faster without the slightest hope of changing the situation.

There is no reason to rely on the United States. In Taipei, and even in Beijing itself, they have not yet understood that America has already passed Taiwan, but has not yet decided how to issue this rent and what to get for it. There can be no talk of a big war with China: it was possible as long as it did not threaten America. Now such a war will inevitably turn into huge losses for the US Armed Forces, and for the country as a whole - by exorbitant financial expenses. Therefore, the containment of Beijing announced by Washington will consist in demonstrating the readiness of the US Armed Forces for the most decisive actions if China starts aggression against its neighbors (including Taiwan). Washington’s calculation is that both Beijing and its neighbors will believe in its determination. In fact, in the coming years, the confrontation between the United States and China will not be military, but psychological. The possibility of China’s expansion into neighboring countries and regions will be determined solely by whether Beijing can understand that the Americans are not ready for a real war against China. However, in any case, the ratio of the economic and military potentials of the United States and the People's Republic of China will inevitably change in favor of China, which will automatically contribute to the growth of Chinese resolve and a further decrease in American determination.

The only thing that so far allows Taiwan to maintain its de facto independence is the island position in the aggregate, with the complete absence of the experience of large-scale amphibious operations by the Chinese Navy. Reflect the landing of the assault is much easier than successfully landed.

China's preponderance

Nevertheless, China has already achieved overwhelming superiority over Taiwan, both at sea and in the air, and it is constantly increasing. To understand this, it is enough to consider the composition of the forces of the parties. And to consider the ground forces of the PLA simply does not make sense. Comparing them with Taiwanese is like comparing a hammer and an egg in terms of impact capabilities.

"Overlord" in Peking. The Celestial Empire is already able to carry out a large-scale airborne assault operation

In addition to the air force, the PLA also has a naval aviation, second only to the American one. Therefore, in the future, the Chinese Air Force will mean the sum of the Air Force itself and naval aviation.

The strike aircraft of China includes approximately 140 medium-range bombers H-6 and H-6M (Tu-16), from 150 to 200 tactical bomber JH-7, from 150 to 550 attack aircraft Q-5. Fighter aircraft has at least 100 Su-30 and J-16 from 200 to 350 Su-27 and J-11 various modifications of 200 to 250 J-10, approximately 200 J-8 and from 700 to 800 J-7 ( MiG-21). The significant difference in numbers is explained not only by a certain information closeness of China, although much smaller than before, but also by the fact that Q-5, J-7 and J-8 of early modifications are gradually written off, JH-7, J-16 are simultaneously released (unlicensed copy of Su-30), J-11B (unlicensed copy of Su-27) and J-10. Therefore, the number of aircraft is extremely variable, with the release of new cars fully compensates for the decommissioning of old ones. In general, China produces more combat aircraft per year than all NATO countries (including the United States) combined.

The additional advantage to China is provided by the presence of hundreds, if not thousands of medium-range and operational-tactical ballistic missiles (OTR) of various types, and now also sea, air and ground-based cruise missiles. Moreover, most of these missiles are located on the mainland opposite of Taiwan and directed precisely at him.

Of course, Chinese SSBNs will not be involved in the war against Taiwan, but even without them, the submarine fleet of the PRC is the largest in the world. He has eight submarines (four projects 091 and 093) and at least 60 PL (up to 10 project 041A eight project 636EM, two projects 636 and 877, 13 project 039G, five project 035G, 13 project 035, eight project 033 ). All submarines and submarines of 041A, 636EM and 039G projects are armed with anti-ship missiles. The old submarines of the 033 and 035 projects are written off, instead of them the submarines of the 041A project are being built, the construction of the submarines of the 095 and 043 projects has been started.

The aircraft carrier "Liaoning" (the failed Soviet "Varyag") attracts much attention from outside observers. However, due to the peculiarity of the design (springboard instead of a catapult) and the actual absence of deck aircraft (as long as there are only two J-15), it will forever remain an experimental training ship, and not a full-fledged combat unit. Real aircraft carriers of their own construction will appear in China no earlier than in 10 years. However, due to the geographical proximity of Taiwan to the mainland, the PLA will have more than enough coast-based aircraft and surface ships of the main classes to strike the island.

The destroyers in the PRC Navy include 25: two 956 projects, two 956EM projects, three 052С projects, two 052В projects, two 052 projects, two 051С projects, one 051В projects, two 051 X-NUMX projects, one 3 project, one 051 project, one 2 project, two 051 projects, one 1 project, one 051 project, one 052 project, one XNUMX project, two XNUMX projects, one XNUMX project, one XNUMX project, two XNUMX projects, one XNUMX project, one XNUMX project, two XNUMX projects, one XNUMX project, one XNUMX project, one XNUMX project, two XNUMX projects. -XNUMX ”and eight XNUMX“ Ljuda-XNUMX ”projects (another ship of the XNUMX project was transferred to the coast guard). All “Lyudy” are gradually being written off, destroyers of the XNUMXС project are built to replace them (three more units, that is, there will be a total of six).

Starting with the third ship of this series, they no longer carry Russian weapon systems. In particular, the C-300F air defense system with a turret-type PU is replaced by a HHQ-9 with a CIP. At the same time, the construction of the “Chinese Aegis”, the destroyers of the 052D project, was launched, which will accommodate a universal UVP on 64 missiles of various classes (SLCM, anti-ship missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, PLUR). They will be at least 10 as part of the Chinese Navy (the first four are currently being built). China will become the fourth country in the world (after the United States, Japan and the Republic of Korea), which has ships of this class. They will be able to enter both aircraft carrier formations as escort ships and operational groups for independent action in the open ocean, including at a considerable distance from the coast of the PRC, including attacking coastal targets. This gives the PRC Navy a completely new quality, which the Chinese fleet has never had in modern stories.

The Chinese fleet now has 48 frigates. Along with the traditional for the Chinese Navy's strike weapons (eight S-803 anti-ship missiles in container launchers), Project 054A ships were the first Chinese frigates to have adequate air defense for ships of this class of air defense: 32 HHQ-16 ATRs (created based on the Russian air defense system "Calm"). Thanks to this, these frigates will become universal escort ships that can be used to protect aircraft carriers near their shores and to strengthen destroyers in the open ocean. China already has the largest in the world fleet frigates. Obviously, their number will be maintained at about 50 units with a continuous improvement in their quality.

Traditionally, the mosquito fleet is very developed in China. Today it includes 119 rocket boats (83 022-X high-speed catamaran project, six 037-II projects, 30 037-IG project) and up to 250 patrol boats. A certain sensation of the last year was the massive construction of 056 project ships in China. A year ago, nothing was known about them. The first ship of this type was laid in May 2012. Today, one is in the ranks, two are on trial, seven are being completed afloat, at least two are on stocks. The total number of ships in the series will obviously exceed 20 units (it may even go to 50).

Such a pace of construction has no analogues in the post-war history in any country of the world. It is particularly impressive given the fact that fairly large ships are being built (displacement is about 1,5 thousand tons, length - 95 meters). In China, they are classified as frigates, in foreign sources - as corvettes. The ships of the 056 project are actually intermediate in size between these two classes of ships. Given the limited cruising range (about two thousand miles), it is more correct to refer them to corvettes. However, it is unlikely the question of their classification is of fundamental importance. It is obvious that the ships of the 056 project should replace most of the outdated “mosquito fleet” built in the People's Republic of China in the 60 – 80 of the twentieth century. It is extremely significant that even in this case, the Chinese leadership with a radical qualitative update does not go for a quantitative reduction, given the massive construction of the world's most powerful, high-speed and advanced rocket boats of the 022 project. The 056 ships are armed with four anti-ship missiles, the 083 boats have eight anti-ship missiles. At the same time, the air defense of the corvettes is rather weak - one FL-3000N air defense system (eight missiles on a launcher), similar to the German-American air defense system RAM. This air defense missile system is intended only for the self-defense of the RCC and is unable to hit combat aircraft (at least it’s impossible to imagine a tactical situation in which a combat aircraft enters the affected area of ​​this air defense system). The air defense of the 022 boats is generally purely symbolic. However, this, apparently, is not a problem from the point of view of the Chinese naval command. Corvettes and boats will obviously operate near their shores under the cover of aircraft from the shore and / or in the same combat formations with the 052С / D destroyers described above and the 054А frigates with strong air defense.

The landing forces of the PRC Navy are large enough; they include three amphibious assault ship dock (DVKD) project 071, 30 large and up to 60 medium landing ships. Each DVK can accommodate up to 800 marines and 50 armored vehicles, which can be transferred from ship to shore using four air-cushion landing craft and four helicopters on board the DVKD. Construction of Chinese amphibious assault ships is expected. In addition, a significant number of civilian vessels (including fishing ones) may be involved in the landing operation against Taiwan.

In general, it is very important to emphasize that the PRC Navy completed the era of experimental low-volume construction of surface ships of the main classes. The command of the Chinese Navy decided on the best options for destroyers, frigates and corvettes and began their large-scale construction. It is impossible not to note the unprecedentedly high capabilities of the Chinese shipbuilding industry, which it now demonstrates. At the moment, six destroyers, four frigates, at least nine corvettes, and also about 10 nuclear and diesel submarines and one DVKD, that is, at least 30 units of warships, are being built and completed at the shipyards and afloat. Even the United States does not have such rates of fleet construction, with any other country there is simply no possibility for comparison. The current pace of construction of the Chinese Navy is second only to the US during the Second World War, but the ships of that time were incomparably simpler than the current ones.

Army of one war

The armed forces of Taiwan are an army of one war. Unfortunately for this country, the PLA will be the enemy in this war.

The ground forces of Taiwan are so inferior to the Chinese in quantitative and qualitative terms that they do not deserve any discussion at all. Without special stretching, they can be considered zero. If the Chinese troops at least in one place cling to the bridgehead and begin to expand it, Taiwanese with a clear conscience can capitulate.

The Taiwan Air Force is formally very large. In their composition 328 fighter of the fourth generation, that is, more than any European country. These are 145 F-16 (117 A, 28 B), 57 Mirage-2000-5 (47 EI, 10 DI) and 126 Chin Kuo (101 A, 25 B). All of them were acquired in 90-ies. There is also up to 250 F-5, of which no more than 100 are in the ranks, the rest are in reserve. The 58 AT-3 attack aircraft can also be attributed to combat, but they are more used as training ones.

Thus, according to the total number of combat aircraft (including reserve ones), the Taiwanese Air Force is among the five strongest in the world (after the United States, China, the Russian Federation and India), which, however, is an extremely poor consolation. In the twenty-first century, they did not receive a single aircraft, and there are no prospects in this regard. China, as mentioned above, already has fourth-generation fighter jets from 500 to 700, adding nearly a hundred each year. Moreover, any Chinese fighter qualitatively exceeds any Taiwanese and just much newer physically. In addition, the PRC has more than 500 strike aircraft and at least a thousand old fighters. Accordingly, there can be no balance about any quantitative or qualitative speech. Therefore, nothing but laughter does not cause many years of talk about the possibility of Taiwan buying 66 F-16C / D fighters in Taiwan. Even if this transaction takes place (which is extremely unlikely, Washington will not go for it), it can be described by the Russian saying “like a dead poultice”.

The submarine fleet of Taiwan, consisting of two submarines of the Dutch construction 80-s and two submarines built by the US 40-s, against the background of the Chinese can be considered non-existent. As for the surface fleet, Taiwan has four American destroyers of the Kidd type, eight American frigates of the Oliver Perry and Knox types, six French frigates of the Lafayette type, about 90 missile corvettes and boats. It is on rocket corvettes built using Stealth technology, with supersonic anti-ship missiles Xiong Feng-3, which is going to rely on the command of the Taiwan Navy in the near future, hoping with their help to cause significant damage to the invading forces. This tactic seems to be the only correct one, but it also becomes more and more illusory.

Considering the guaranteed superiority of the air force and navy of the PRC in the air and under water, Chinese frigates, corvettes and boats will easily crush the Taiwanese fleet, including its new corvettes. China will not even need to introduce the most modern destroyers into battle, it will save them for future ocean voyages as part of aircraft carrier formations. The promised delivery of four Oliver Perry frigates to Taiwan from the USA (extremely unsuccessful ships due to weak weapons) is another poultice of the dead. Like the F-16, they can no longer affect the balance of power: time is hopelessly lost. Due to the incompatibility of production capacities, the military capabilities of the parties are equally incomparable.

Only five years ago, the author of this article considered the outcome of the Chinese landing operation against Taiwan absolutely unpredictable and saw the very real possibilities of the Taiwanese to repel aggression even without the help of the United States. And he didn’t assume that the situation would change so quickly and drastically.

In fact, now China does not seize Taiwan by force just because it hopes to do so in a peaceful way. The KMT from the CCP's once irreconcilable opponent has turned into its fifth column, contributing to the peaceful economic absorption of Taiwan by China. This absorption is accelerated. Naturally, a pragmatic Beijing in no case will not cut the goose that lays the golden eggs. It is much more profitable for him to join prosperous Taiwan with its huge currency reserves and developed technologies. And only if for some reason the program fails, will China quickly and firmly resolve the issue by force. However, over the years through 10, its superiority will become so obvious and overwhelming that a “program crash” will be impossible. Taiwan simply does not dare to resist, and the United States will finally forget its “security guarantees” to the island.
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  1. fenix57
    fenix57 April 10 2013 08: 16 New
    +2
    Hello everyone. Against the backdrop of the events in the area of ​​the Korean Peninsula, this campaign will pass unnoticed as a "whisper". And a "place" strategically important for China ... hi
    1. Sirocco
      Sirocco April 10 2013 09: 00 New
      +2
      Have a nice one you too hi laughing And all this fuss with military operations, China against Taiwan, do the Chinese need? They are not whining, so they will take Taiwan by skating. So to speak without noise and dust. As we have in the Far East. Slowly but surely assimilated. But in general, an article from the series, if only, yes.
      1. Vladimirets
        Vladimirets April 10 2013 09: 37 New
        +2
        Quote: Sirocco
        And all this fuss with military operations, China against Taiwan, do the Chinese need? They are not whining, so they will take Taiwan by skating. So to speak without noise and dust.

        I absolutely agree, it’s just that at the moment Taiwan is not vital for China, especially China does not need it in ruins.
        1. Su24
          Su24 April 10 2013 16: 15 New
          -1
          Strategically, Taiwan as a position blocks the Chinese fleet from the Philippine Sea, and also hangs on the flank, in the case of Chinese advance to the south.
      2. Nayhas
        Nayhas April 10 2013 15: 12 New
        0
        "Slowly but surely assimilating." - why assimilate there? That the Chinese live in Taiwan, that in China ...
      3. Bashkaus
        Bashkaus April 10 2013 19: 40 New
        0
        In the Far East, of course, they are assimilating, but is there only an antidote to them from the Chinese plague? And then in the taiga you know a lot of different encyphalitic ticks are found.
    2. buga1979
      buga1979 April 10 2013 09: 01 New
      +1
      article + will join no one will pickn
    3. Kaa
      Kaa April 10 2013 09: 37 New
      +2
      Quote: fenix57
      Against the backdrop of events in the Korean Peninsula region, this campaign will pass unnoticed,
      Maybe the DPRK also performs this function - a distraction. And as for Taiwan - there have been rumors for a long time that their business has completely agreed to provide the island with a special zone regime similar to Hong Kong, with a gradual transition period in the PRC.
      1. Thunderbolt
        Thunderbolt April 10 2013 10: 54 New
        +1
        Well, since the Chinese republics eventually "agree", it’s worthwhile to figure out on the map where in the world China’s military expansion is possible. I think the Chinese are not crazy reckless yellow-faced monkeys, and pragmatic business executives will use military force only if economic expansion will "stall" or be damped by the actions of competing countries. They need raw materials for their factory and order in the store ...
    4. USNik
      USNik April 10 2013 11: 33 New
      +1
      Dear editors, if a full interview with Khramchikhin has been posted here, let me post a brief description of it given at one well-known forum:
      ... the idea arose to finally compile a list of ANALitegs and military experts who regularly molest the media and Runet with the products of their brain activity in the style of “Sentry! everything was lost!”. ...

      Khramchikhin A.A.
      Who is this: a political scientist, head of the analytical department of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis. Author of several hundred publications on political and military topics in various print media (NG, NVO, LG, Vremya MN, Znamya, Otechestvennye Zapiski, etc.) and on Internet sites (russ.ru, globalrus.ru , ima-press.ru, rbc.ru, etc.), and also acts as an expert in TV and radio programs (VGTRK, REN-TV, Radio of Russia, Mayak-24, and Business-FM).
      What is falling in: Paranoid obsessed with the Chinese threat, drives all his thoughts under this idea, based on innocent facts. He invents absurd scenarios of the imminent Chinese invasion of the Russian Federation. At the same time, he assures that NATO is catastrophically weakened and poses no threat.
      He does not understand military equipment and makes silly mistakes in articles.
      Exposure Sessions:
      http://gosh100.livejournal.com/20805.html

      There, and on other writers, on war-related topics, there is a resume.
  2. svp67
    svp67 April 10 2013 09: 23 New
    +1
    I agree with the conclusions that somewhere in 10 years a "reunion" of the two Chinas is possible, and it will happen more or less peacefully ...
  3. shinobi
    shinobi April 10 2013 09: 26 New
    +1
    It is certainly true, but China has no experience of modern wars at all. In the last century, the great Mao was upset about the Far Eastern adventure against the USSR and everyone knows how it all ended. And there, in this piece of the border, China’s advantage was also not irrelevant.
    1. svp67
      svp67 April 10 2013 14: 37 New
      0
      Quote: shinobi
      , but China has no experience of modern wars at all.



      So soon it’s worth waiting for “training,” I think somewhere in the vast expanses of Africa ...
  4. Oren
    Oren April 10 2013 10: 00 New
    0
    At such a pace for the construction of ships and aircraft, ten years from now, not a single country in the world will pick up against China. Let's hope for the best....
  5. Mhpv
    Mhpv April 10 2013 10: 12 New
    0
    We will cross the border quietly and in small groups of three million each wassat
  6. Forget
    Forget April 10 2013 10: 23 New
    0
    adding almost a hundred every year

    how to work it is necessary ...
  7. nagi
    nagi April 10 2013 10: 25 New
    +1
    China at this stage is not geopolitically advantageous to seize Taiwan by force. The PRC has many internal problems, if due to a military operation China begins to be blocked in the sales markets, this could undermine China’s economic power with all its internal problems. China, it seems to me it will be a peaceful way to try to clean up Taiwan, with the preparation of alternative markets. The process is not fast, and in the next decade, Taiwan makes no sense to panic.
    1. Thunderbolt
      Thunderbolt April 10 2013 11: 14 New
      +2
      Sun Tzu believed that the art of a commander is to achieve victory without the use of military force.
  8. Roll
    Roll April 10 2013 10: 47 New
    +1
    tongue China on Kndr will look at how strong the amers are and draw conclusions. Kndr is China's settlement.
  9. NOBODY EXCEPT US
    NOBODY EXCEPT US April 10 2013 11: 03 New
    +1
    Well, Taiwan will join China, so what? Nothing will change, just as there hasn’t changed in Hong Kong, how much noise there has been that the Chinese will collapse and destroy everything, the time has come that Hong Kong has become Chinese and nothing has changed, it has flourished and flourishes, though simple Chinese people are not allowed to enter it, a kind of "window" of China, following the example of the Baltic states in the USSR, I think it will be the same with Taiwan .. The leaders of China will not, as mentioned above, "cut chicken laying golden eggs" .... (this is possible only with us) ....
  10. knn54
    knn54 April 10 2013 11: 37 New
    -1
    OVERLORD, why?
    The firing range of the WS-2D rocket artillery is 350-400 km, and the WS-2 shells were made adjustable. There is no risk of losing an extremely expensive plane or ship, no fuel is wasted. Ammunition is consumed only, moreover, they are cheaper at the MLRS than aviation ammunition. And providing each PU with a “personal” reconnaissance drone will only increase accuracy
    This MLRS from the Chinese coast will reach anywhere in the island. At the same time, the WS-2D small-sized shells have hypersonic speed; their flight time, even at the maximum range, will not exceed 5 minutes. Air defense is not something to hit, even fail to detect them.
    But I think that things will not get to war because the successful game of China on the contradictions between the Kuomintang and the Democratic Party works for an informal rapprochement between the people of mainland and island China and is slowly preparing Taiwanese society for a positive perception of a future reunion.
  11. Drosselmeyer
    Drosselmeyer April 10 2013 12: 59 New
    +1
    In vain, the author underestimates the land army of Taiwan. There are three hundred thousand regular troops and one and a half million reservists. And after the power capture of Taiwan by China (which I doubt very much), Japan will abandon its nuclear-free status.
  12. Bigriver
    Bigriver April 10 2013 13: 05 New
    +1
    Another rubbish from Mr. Alexander Khramchikhin.
    This Mr. For the second decade has sung wherever possible about the future war between Russia and China.
    "Brilliant expert"! He said and proved everything that is possible, with the exception of the main thing - why is this for China?
  13. Kars
    Kars April 10 2013 14: 38 New
    0
    It would be interesting to look from the sidelines. How the United States and Japan will react to this. There is definitely a military assistance agreement with the United States.

    There haven’t been large landings since the time of Overwell and Incheon. I would have set off to Taiwan if I had known what he had with sea and anti-landing mines.
  14. Deniska
    Deniska April 10 2013 15: 09 New
    0
    Why would they crush the meat with MEAT !!!
  15. Nayhas
    Nayhas April 10 2013 15: 45 New
    0
    Well, everything is not so simple. To carry out an airborne operation, you must first gain dominance in the air, then clear the water area of ​​the alleged landing sites from mines, then ensure not only the transport of landing units, but also supplies, as well as the evacuation of the wounded. The PRC does not have so many means for landing, but it is necessary to immediately put down so much strength to hold on to the captured area, and not just to hold on, but to ensure unhindered reception of ammunition and equipment. Given the population density of Taiwan, the size of the island will be very difficult to do. Taiwan is not a flat island, it is easier for the defending side to equip in the rocks positions, warehouses, shelters. In addition, a developed road network and the relatively small size of the island allow you to quickly transfer reserves to any part of the coast. Yes, and Taiwan is not Mongolia, out of 23 million people, 2 million are only a mobilization reserve, which again, with the size of the island, allows you to quickly create maximum concentration in any area ...
  16. ed65b
    ed65b April 10 2013 16: 10 New
    0
    Are Americans not decisive? The entire course of the Cold War shows the opposite, and they have enough determination and adventurism. The same Caribbean crisis showed this, if Khrushchev didn’t surrender back, it would not be known how it ended. And in Korea that the Americans did not know that the councils there were fighting for the Koreans? they knew everything and all however fought. so China could well get bream for Taiwan.
  17. Canep
    Canep April 10 2013 17: 14 New
    0
    I do not think that the Chinese will climb to capture Taiwan. Wikipedia says - “The island’s natural resources include small deposits of gold, copper, coal, natural gas, limestone, marble and asbestos.” It’s easier for them to agree somehow. The capture and restoration of the island will take more resources than this island has. And as for the availability of undiscovered reserves, I doubt it. They most likely already rummaged and drilled everything.