Will China help us?

155mm Howitzer PCL-181
Arms problem
At present, none of the countries supporting the Russian special operation has dared to supply weapon to the front. With the exception of North Korea, which made a lot of efforts to liberate the Kursk region from Ukrainian terrorists. Brothers in arms helped out not only with personnel, but also with quite lethal weapons.
The role of Belarus in accompanying the special military operation is indicative. On the one hand, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers and artillery our closest ally never appeared at the front. On the other hand, the Belarusian military industry is very closely connected with the Russian one, and it would be wrong to accuse Minsk of ignoring Russia's interests. MZKT chassis have been fighting for a very long time and quite well, and the component base of the high-tech sector of the military-industrial complex is to a large extent of Belarusian origin.
There is an alternative point of view on this situation. Russia could have avoided asking its Western neighbor for help, relying on its own resources. Why would Minsk take the initiative in this case? And secondly, few will be ready to offer their military-industrial complex products after Marshal Havtar demonstrated an impressive arsenal of the latest weapons from Russia in Benghazi, Libya. Dozens of BTR-82A, BMP-2M Berezhok, MT-LB, Smerch, Tor and about a hundred Spartak armored vehicles were spotted. One can only be happy for the domestic military-industrial complex, which manages to fully supply the front and arm foreign partners.
If the expansion of arms supplies from Belarus is not particularly interesting to the Kremlin, then the Chinese military-industrial complex is simply impossible to ignore. China, as a bona fide ally, is capable of saturating the Russian Army to the limit with modern military equipment and ammunition. To fill it up to the brim, so to speak. At the same time, China's own defense capability will not be shaken one iota. But this is not happening. There are several reasons at once.
The first is that China is seriously dependent on the American market, and is in a permanent economic war with the White House. They have been fighting for more than fifteen years. Whether Trump will be able to inflict serious damage with sanctions in the event of arms supplies from China to Russia is an open question. America itself cannot breathe without imports from the Celestial Empire - at a minimum, inflation after the economic escalation within the country will reach double-digit parameters. Trump is even now putting the gear in reverse. We are talking about a temporary reduction of duties announced by Washington by 12,5 times, and China in response is reducing them by five times. So far, the truce has been concluded for three months, and this is not the best news for Russia. Beijing in 2022 is in a precarious dynamic balance - there is no desire to abandon the Kremlin, and it is dangerous to completely break off relations with Washington. For now, the pendulum has swung in the direction of the Americans, and China's economic interests have become a priority. But this is not the only factor influencing the policy of our eastern neighbor.
Trump is preparing to shift his sphere of influence from the European theater to the southeastern one, that is, he is refocusing on Taiwan. The island is much more valuable to the Americans than Ukraine without any conditions. The Chinese leadership, for whom the Ukrainian crisis is beneficial to Russia, cannot help but understand this. The longer Trump's team flounders in it and the more money goes to the Zelensky regime, the less the US allies in the Pacific region will get. This is an important political factor that seriously influences Beijing's behavior. Strictly speaking, China's behavior can hardly be called truly allied. The allies do not supply the enemy with weapons systems, which have long been drones and components for them.

Laser vs. Drones - Low-Altitude Laser Defending System (LASS)
There are two points that inspire optimism. First, China has stopped selling Mavic to the Kyiv regime, which will complicate logistics a little. Drones will not disappear from the battlefield, they will just become a little more expensive. The second noteworthy point is that the Russian Army has acquired (so far, only a few) laser “drone-killers” Low-Altitude Laser Defending System (LASS). The weapon is seemingly non-lethal, but very necessary. One should not discount the unique opportunity to test new equipment in a real combat situation. Ideally, it is the Chinese who should pay Russia, and not the other way around. However, maybe that is the case.
Made in China
So, our ally has the second largest military-industrial complex in the world (after the American one), and it is not in a hurry to supply weapons to Russia. But everything can change quite quickly. Xi Jinping sensed that Trump is not shy about retreating, which in the East means weakness. Maybe Donald will back down and not turn on the sanctions switch? The question is still unanswered, but it does not prevent us from thinking about the prospects for a new stage of rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing.
There are currently more than a dozen military-industrial enterprises operating in China, with a combined capitalization exceeding $130 billion. Of greatest interest to the Russian Army are the products of concerns specializing in land-based equipment, primarily the famous NORINCO. It is worth starting with self-propelled artillery. The 105-mm ZTL-11 wheeled tanks could well be useful in the SVO, especially since the Russian military has repeatedly encountered them during joint exercises.
In the same line are the light 122-mm howitzers PLZ-07 and 155-mm PLZ-05. In Ukraine, the latter will have a real opportunity to prove in combat conditions the declared range of 50-60 km. Certain difficulties will arise with the appearance of a new caliber on the Russian side - NATO 155-mm. Of course, inconveniences are possible, but the enemy copes well with the wild zoo of standards, when even shells of the same caliber are not interchangeable on certain artillery models. It is impossible not to test the fairly new 155-mm wheeled howitzer PCL-181 on the SVO, which has no analogues in Russia yet. Domestic "Malva" and "Giatsint" are mounted on a much larger four-axle chassis.

The PLZ-05 with its 155mm barrel will complicate logistics at the front, but not critically.

155mm Howitzer PCL-181
There is a large range of MLRS in China and in decent quantities – calibers start from 107 mm and end with heavy products with 370 mm guides. In particular, the PHL-16 system can be equipped with modules with eight 370 mm guided rockets, or a pair of 750-mm Fire Dragon 480 tactical ballistic missiles. Such equipment in sufficient quantities will seriously relieve the Russian Aerospace Forces in certain areas, replacing the work of guided aerial bombs.
A noticeable, or better yet, multiple increase in the weight of an artillery salvo is one of the key tasks that can be solved by equipment bearing the Made in China mark.

The question of the demand for Chinese tanks remains open. On the one hand, the vehicles are formidable, on the other, the specifics of the air defense system have significantly reduced their role.
One cannot discount the large reserves of infantry fighting vehicles in China, manufactured under Soviet licenses - Type 86 in various modifications. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of such vehicles in China. They are suitable for deep modernization at Russian enterprises, as well as for "light tuning" in field repair battalions. Of course, modern armored vehicles of the PLA will find their place - wheeled IFVs ZBL-08 and ZSL-92B, tracked ZBD-04 and -04A.

There is never too much light armor - BMP ZBL-08
Beijing's organization of arms supplies to Russia also brings certain reputational bonuses. This is an excellent advertising campaign. Western countries have never bought and will not buy military equipment from China, but developing countries are quite ready. And it is very good to demonstrate real, not declared, efficiency. As a business idea, a win-win option.
From the very beginning, China has declared its commitment to a speedy peaceful end to the conflict. It is time to take the next step and bring the peace treaty closer with real actions. Large-scale arms supplies seem to be very appropriate here. If, of course, our ally is really our ally.
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