Development Program of the Far East: scrape the bottom of the barrel
The Minister of Development of the Far East, Viktor Ishayev, got into a difficult situation after last week’s meeting of the state government commission in the capital of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia). The meeting addressed the issue of financing the project for the development of the Far Eastern Macro-region, along with Transbaikalia and part of Eastern Siberia.
Viktor Ishayev was appointed to his current position in May 2012 of the year - after Vladimir Putin as one of his priorities identified the need for serious investments in the Far East in order to develop the region in full-scale. Minister Ishayev and was supposed to be the general manager of the entire Far East project. Obviously, the main task for Viktor Ishaev was to control budget funds, which will flow into the economy of the Far East and Transbaikalia.
It was originally planned that no less than 16 trillion rubles would be sent to the Far East, but this figure immediately raised a number of questions from government representatives who understood that they simply could not get that kind of money. Someone even began to recall Alexei Kudrin, who at one time said that, they say, if we release 20 trillions to modernize the army, then all other projects will have to be corrected, to say the least. The most interesting thing is that we really had to correct it, because the program for the development of the Far Eastern macro-region was eventually cut by exactly one third. Instead of the trillions of funds originally designated 16, the program was squeezed to 10,6 trillions, as was reported by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev the other day in Yakutsk.
It would seem that 10,6 trillion is an impressive amount to start the implementation of the development program for the Far East, Eastern Siberia and Transbaikalia, but another important “but” surfaced. This “but” lies in the fact that 10,6 trillions are the sum of the budget and private investment in the project. In other words, this amount has yet to be found ... Who will look? .. That's why Minister Ishaev, apparently, had to fidget in his chair during a meeting of the state commission ...
Moscow is going to allocate trillion rubles for the implementation of the Far Eastern project 3,8, and the remaining 6,8 trillion. must be made up of private investment, as well as borrowed funds. Who are the authors of the funding project going to borrow? Dmitry Medvedev tried to answer this question, stating that they would borrow from the Pension Fund and seek additional funds from the financial management of the National Wealth Fund. From such words, many clearly glanced at each other, scratching their heads. After all, the fact is that the Pension Fund, in which the government is going to borrow something, has its growing deficit, which is estimated at over 2 trillion rubles. And if we take into account that the Pension Fund itself claims to eliminate the deficit already this year with the help of funds from the federal budget, it becomes quite unclear how the government will borrow from someone whom it itself is trying to keep afloat by financial injections ... A similar analogy emerges: in order to make repairs in your apartment you are going to borrow money from a neighbor, for whom they themselves have set aside the amount needed for life tomorrow. The scheme, the transparency and feasibility of which can be long and extensively reason.
If we touch upon the words of Prime Minister Medvedev that it will be possible to use the management tools of the National Wealth Fund (NWF) to finance the program for the development of the Far East, then everything is not so smooth and simple. These roughness at the meeting outlined the Minister of Economic Development Belousov. In particular, he said that the National Wealth Fund gives about 70-80 billion rubles a year, and full implementation of Far Eastern projects as part of extra-budgetary financing (excluding private investment) will require at least 100 billion rubles annually. A misty prospect arises, connected with the fact that even with the use of money from the National Wealth Fund, it will be necessary to take 20-30 billion rubles more every year until the end of the project.
Well, the most difficult segment of making the idea of developing the Far Eastern macro-region a reality is attracting private investment. These investments are necessary as air, but the ministers themselves declare that it will be extremely difficult to attract them in full. Why is it difficult? The fact is that the entire development project, in the framework of which several individual projects are being laid (Transsib development, construction of a new BAM branch, development of regional air links, construction of roads, port infrastructure and power industry development), will not pay for itself immediately after these projects . For example, in order to pay off the 80-billion-dollar project for the construction of the 3-kilometer bridge over Lena, which will actually link Yakutsk with BAM and the Trans-Siberian railway, it will take at least 5-6 years (with favorable economic conditions). And now tell me, who in our country from the representatives of big business will decide to allocate tens of billions of rubles to the fact that, if they start making a profit, then only a few years after commissioning? The correct answer is: no one, if the classical system does not work, often worked out by top political leadership. Such a system is popularly called voluntary-compulsory: you don’t want to invest - as in the famous film, “turn off the gas” (well, or shut off the oxygen) ...
But if such a trick may work with our businessmen, and they will eventually “invest” their funds, then this scheme will not work to attract foreign investments. And it’s possible to say that foreign investors themselves are interested in large-scale investments in Russian Far Eastern projects, as long as possible, only the business climate in Russia is still far from the optimal options for long-term investment projects. Although it seems that today it is far from the best options almost all over the world: take at least Cyprus, where government mechanisms were found for private capital.
What is the result? And it turns out that the development program, it seems, has been adopted, but in some kind of semi-fire version. Who will look for means for its realization, from what real, rather than metaphysical sources will be made, who will be held responsible in case of her (program), God forbid non-realization - all this remains secret even after the meeting of the state commission. In fairness, it should be noted that the federal ministers themselves, headed by Dmitry Medvedev, acknowledged that the development program for the Far East and Transbaikalia is crude, and that it needs to be improved. How good is the improvisational potential of our government in terms of translating these ideas into reality? - today, it seems, no one knows, and the Cabinet itself, including. Therefore, I would like to hope that the program of development of the Far East did not turn into a phantom, which looked very attractive even before it began to translate into reality, and then turned into an “unknowable little animal” with extremely cut financing and waiting for private capital off the coast of the Pacific Ocean ...
Dmitry Medvedev (right) led the state program for the development of the Far East through the ranks of the profile state commission participants. Photo: Alexander Miridonov / Kommersant
Viktor Ishayev was appointed to his current position in May 2012 of the year - after Vladimir Putin as one of his priorities identified the need for serious investments in the Far East in order to develop the region in full-scale. Minister Ishayev and was supposed to be the general manager of the entire Far East project. Obviously, the main task for Viktor Ishaev was to control budget funds, which will flow into the economy of the Far East and Transbaikalia.
It was originally planned that no less than 16 trillion rubles would be sent to the Far East, but this figure immediately raised a number of questions from government representatives who understood that they simply could not get that kind of money. Someone even began to recall Alexei Kudrin, who at one time said that, they say, if we release 20 trillions to modernize the army, then all other projects will have to be corrected, to say the least. The most interesting thing is that we really had to correct it, because the program for the development of the Far Eastern macro-region was eventually cut by exactly one third. Instead of the trillions of funds originally designated 16, the program was squeezed to 10,6 trillions, as was reported by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev the other day in Yakutsk.
It would seem that 10,6 trillion is an impressive amount to start the implementation of the development program for the Far East, Eastern Siberia and Transbaikalia, but another important “but” surfaced. This “but” lies in the fact that 10,6 trillions are the sum of the budget and private investment in the project. In other words, this amount has yet to be found ... Who will look? .. That's why Minister Ishaev, apparently, had to fidget in his chair during a meeting of the state commission ...
Moscow is going to allocate trillion rubles for the implementation of the Far Eastern project 3,8, and the remaining 6,8 trillion. must be made up of private investment, as well as borrowed funds. Who are the authors of the funding project going to borrow? Dmitry Medvedev tried to answer this question, stating that they would borrow from the Pension Fund and seek additional funds from the financial management of the National Wealth Fund. From such words, many clearly glanced at each other, scratching their heads. After all, the fact is that the Pension Fund, in which the government is going to borrow something, has its growing deficit, which is estimated at over 2 trillion rubles. And if we take into account that the Pension Fund itself claims to eliminate the deficit already this year with the help of funds from the federal budget, it becomes quite unclear how the government will borrow from someone whom it itself is trying to keep afloat by financial injections ... A similar analogy emerges: in order to make repairs in your apartment you are going to borrow money from a neighbor, for whom they themselves have set aside the amount needed for life tomorrow. The scheme, the transparency and feasibility of which can be long and extensively reason.
If we touch upon the words of Prime Minister Medvedev that it will be possible to use the management tools of the National Wealth Fund (NWF) to finance the program for the development of the Far East, then everything is not so smooth and simple. These roughness at the meeting outlined the Minister of Economic Development Belousov. In particular, he said that the National Wealth Fund gives about 70-80 billion rubles a year, and full implementation of Far Eastern projects as part of extra-budgetary financing (excluding private investment) will require at least 100 billion rubles annually. A misty prospect arises, connected with the fact that even with the use of money from the National Wealth Fund, it will be necessary to take 20-30 billion rubles more every year until the end of the project.
Well, the most difficult segment of making the idea of developing the Far Eastern macro-region a reality is attracting private investment. These investments are necessary as air, but the ministers themselves declare that it will be extremely difficult to attract them in full. Why is it difficult? The fact is that the entire development project, in the framework of which several individual projects are being laid (Transsib development, construction of a new BAM branch, development of regional air links, construction of roads, port infrastructure and power industry development), will not pay for itself immediately after these projects . For example, in order to pay off the 80-billion-dollar project for the construction of the 3-kilometer bridge over Lena, which will actually link Yakutsk with BAM and the Trans-Siberian railway, it will take at least 5-6 years (with favorable economic conditions). And now tell me, who in our country from the representatives of big business will decide to allocate tens of billions of rubles to the fact that, if they start making a profit, then only a few years after commissioning? The correct answer is: no one, if the classical system does not work, often worked out by top political leadership. Such a system is popularly called voluntary-compulsory: you don’t want to invest - as in the famous film, “turn off the gas” (well, or shut off the oxygen) ...
But if such a trick may work with our businessmen, and they will eventually “invest” their funds, then this scheme will not work to attract foreign investments. And it’s possible to say that foreign investors themselves are interested in large-scale investments in Russian Far Eastern projects, as long as possible, only the business climate in Russia is still far from the optimal options for long-term investment projects. Although it seems that today it is far from the best options almost all over the world: take at least Cyprus, where government mechanisms were found for private capital.
What is the result? And it turns out that the development program, it seems, has been adopted, but in some kind of semi-fire version. Who will look for means for its realization, from what real, rather than metaphysical sources will be made, who will be held responsible in case of her (program), God forbid non-realization - all this remains secret even after the meeting of the state commission. In fairness, it should be noted that the federal ministers themselves, headed by Dmitry Medvedev, acknowledged that the development program for the Far East and Transbaikalia is crude, and that it needs to be improved. How good is the improvisational potential of our government in terms of translating these ideas into reality? - today, it seems, no one knows, and the Cabinet itself, including. Therefore, I would like to hope that the program of development of the Far East did not turn into a phantom, which looked very attractive even before it began to translate into reality, and then turned into an “unknowable little animal” with extremely cut financing and waiting for private capital off the coast of the Pacific Ocean ...
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