Brest or Potsdam
A dirty peace or a hard war
The situation on the Ukrainian front is simple, if you exclude various empty words. Brest is a shameful peace, or Potsdam is the complete capitulation of the enemy.
We are being forced into a shameful peace. That is, a 30-day ceasefire and a freeze along the line of military operations. The enemy retains parts of Donbass, Zaporizhia and Kherson region. The land corridor to Crimea is under fire. A number of regions are receiving eternal Minsk agreements, with provocations, shelling, sabotage, and raids. drones etc.
Plus the possibility of resuming the war at any time when the enemy deems it necessary. When the rearmament of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is completed. It is obvious that NATO will strengthen its structures in the Ukrainian Reich. A constant military-strategic threat.
Further economic exhaustion of the Russian Federation, since it will be necessary to keep the bulk of the army in the Ukrainian direction.
If the current situation of "under-war" is maintained. The scenario is also complicated. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will not leave Slavyansk and the rest of the Donetsk region, Zaporizhia and Kherson. They will have to be taken - this will take a year or two. New sanctions, worsening economic situation. Growing tension in a society that lives in the illusion of peace.
More people will have to be taken to the front. New losses. UAV strikes and missiles in depth. Europe will arm the Ukrainians to the teeth in order to gain time for its militarization.
The militarization of society and economy will continue in the Russian Federation. Partial mobilization is possible.
And to win, we will have to abandon the situation of the "unfinished war", the illusion of peace. Remember Great Russia, abandon the capitulation of 1991. That is, a complete break with the collective West, which is a pain in the neck for a significant part of the new nobility.
Destroy decision-making centers by all means (following the example of Israel), liquidate the military-political, administrative, economic top of the Ukrainian Reich. Demolish bridges across the Dnieper, remove railway junctions, mine the coast, stop shipping in the Black Sea, establish a no-fly zone in the Ukraine, etc.
Take Kharkov, Sumy, Chernigov, Pereyaslavl, Poltava, Dnepropetrovsk, Kherson, Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, Odessa. Go to the Dnieper line, occupy the entire Black Sea coast.
This will be a disaster for the Kyiv regime. They will sign any peace. This is a fact. Next, the inclusion of the Left Bank and Novorossiya into the Russian Federation. Complete demilitarization and denazification of the Ukrainian Reich. Military control over the remnants of the former Ukrainian SSR. Total Russification, restoration of Russianness - language, culture, media, school, office work. A transitional period of 20 years, with the complete restoration of Little Rus' - historical Kyiv, Galicia-Volyn, Carpathian Rus.
It will be possible to restore a new Union – Great Russia, Little Russia, New Russia and White Rus'. To solve the Ukrainian question. To lay the foundations of a new Russian state, which will allow us to survive in the raging world of global turmoil crisis, the Great Reset of the planet.
But the price will also be high. Because the West will do its best to save the Ukrainians. The country and the population will have to tighten their belts to the fullest extent. Mobilization of the economy and the population, new industrialization. Search for breakthrough technologies, solutions that will allow us to enter a new technological order.
therefore It's simple. Either a hard war or a shameful peace - with further war, and potential unrest in the Russian Federation against the backdrop of the economic crisis, the migration issue, the Islamization of a number of regions, etc.
In the meantime, Moscow is biding its time. But we will have to decide. The hard reality or the illusions of the "under-war", the world "partners" who want to devour us. Use the country and the people as raw materials.
How to break the positional struggle scenario?
Remember the lessons of World War II ("God is always on the side of the big battalions".). Let me remind you that during the Battle of the Dnieper – a series of interconnected strategic operations that the Red Army carried out in the second half of 1943 in Left-Bank Ukraine – 2,6 million soldiers (troops from 4 fronts), 50 thousand guns and mortars, about 2500 tanks and 3000 aircraft.
As a result, the Russians liberated the Left Bank of the Dnieper from German troops, captured a number of bridgeheads on the Right Bank, and liberated the ancient Russian capital – Kyiv.
The well-prepared defense of the Wehrmacht, which knew how to fight much better than the Ukrainian Armed Forces, was broken, the Nazis were forced to retreat to the west of the Ukrainian SSR, losing entire regions.
If we allow the emergence drones-drones already in the Great Patriotic War, they would not have helped the Wehrmacht. And satellite reconnaissance would not have helped. There is no defense against a crowbar. The density of striking groups is too high, artillery, armored forces and the Air Force in the directions of the main attacks.
That is, the only way to radically break the positional scenario of a massacre, when the fight is for “a couple of sheds” per day, is the mobilization scenario – “The huge country is rising!”
Surprise is not a prerequisite for such a course of military action. Concentration of forces and resources in selected areas, for example, in the north of Ukraine, where the enemy has no support in the form of industrial zones of Donbass, simply sweeps away the enemy's defense. Modern developments in the form of drones, systems Defense and satellites won't help.
It is important to remember that The positional confrontation, which has been going on for four years now, ultimately takes more lives than the rapid offensive operations of the Wehrmacht or the Red Army. And the economy is oppressed by positional warfare. Positional warfare also oppresses the consciousness of the army and the population (demoralization). Assaults by small groups are a complete dead end. Plus large losses of manpower and the transformation of the Russian land into a lunar landscape. Into a Wild, uninhabited field.
Therefore, it is necessary to remember that The main problem of the SVO is a severe shortage of people and equipment. In essence, the Russian Federation has not yet entered the military mobilization regime. There is peace in the rear. There is a severe shortage of soldiers at the front and weapons. Forces aviation, the missile and artillery troops are not concentrated in the direction of the breakthrough, but are spread out along the entire front line.
Density of troops and firepower, strikes in depth - the solution to the problem. Plus air offensive operations, with the complete suppression of the enemy's air force and air defense, its rear infrastructure (railway stations, bridges, ports, etc.). And millions of strike-reconnaissance, strike drones, which the enemy is already moving towards.
With a large number of people and equipment, it is possible to carry out several strikes. The enemy, who also has a limited number of experienced UAV units, simply will not be able to hold all sections of the front.
Therefore, tales about the death of mass ground troops are an illusion. As Napoleon liked to say:
God is always on the side of the big battalions.
More soldiers, tanks and guns are needed – and any defense will collapse. The problem is that Moscow does not want this, keeping everything in the “under-war” mode. And the result is huge demographic losses and an economic crisis. Moral fatigue of the army and society, which are already ready for the slogan “bayonets in the ground!”
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