Military Review

Dollar: crash or rise?

The International Monetary Fund is paired with the National Bureau of Economic Research from Massachusetts: the euro is bad, the dollar is good. And the tendency is distinguished: the smaller in world transactions of the euro, the greater the dollar in them. However, no need to rush to conclusions. First, in addition to the dollar and the euro, there are other currencies that are actively seeking to establish themselves in the global economic arena. Secondly, there is also gold, which in recent years the central banks of countries where they think a little about the future are buying up at an ever-increasing pace. If we consider the issue from all sides, then the position of the dollar is by no means rosy.

According to the International Monetary Fund, the total amount of euros in the currency reserves of developing countries decreased 2012 year before 24% (676,6 billion euros). This is the lowest since 2009. Last year, the central banks of these countries sold securities denominated in European currency to 44,8 billion. Against this background, investments in dollar assets are growing. The central banks of the BRICS countries, for example, for 2012 a year invested about $ 156 billion in US securities, which corresponds to approximately 120 billion euros.

At the very beginning of the Cyprus crisis, the investment fund PIMCO, which has assets of more than 2 trillion. Doll., reduced their investments in eurocurrency. The executive director of the organization, Saumil Parikia, stated that he considers the decision taken (at that time) by the Eurogroup to impose a tax on deposits in exchange for financial assistance not just a mistake, but a kind of recognition that the euro is far from perfect as a key global currency. And Parikia is not alone in her skepticism. His opinion is shared by the central banks of developing countries that are getting rid of the euro. According to the International Monetary Fund, in 2012, they sold a total of 45 billion euros. The favorite is the US dollar, whose share is invariably maintained at the level of 60%.

Well-known agency "Standard & Poor's" downgraded forecast for the fall of eurozone GDP by 2013 to 0,5%. Previously, it was a decrease in 0,1%. But due to the difficult financial situation, the scale of decline may increase fivefold. The notorious Cyprus with its beginning "haircut" of deposits is achieving the situation. And not only Cyprus. The fall of the banking system of Cyprus, strengthening crises in Greece, Spain and other "peripheral" countries of the EU, it seems, is about to finish off the single European currency. Eurozone recessions cannot be avoided. Decisions like Cypriot are now feared in Spain. In Greece. At any moment, the soft help of a “sick” economy can be replaced by surgery - monetary expropriation.

It would seem that the time has come to perk up the dollar declining in recent years.

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Tano Santos and Luis Garicano from The National Bureau of Economic Research, that is, the National Bureau of Economic Research, wrote an extensive financial composition on the crisis in the eurozone. It is entirely devoted to the main culprit in the crisis in the eurozone: the single currency euro. Everything that used to be bad in the economy of Greece or Portugal, with the introduction of the euro in 1999, has become much worse: debts have grown, bubbles have become inflated, dependence on EU saving funds has grown. In the past, “peripheral” European countries used devaluation to recover from the effects of adverse business cycles, which, however, did not improve the basic volatility of their economies. With the euro, there has been a deterioration in the sense that it has become impossible to apply the devaluation policy. In short, the euro ruined everything.

Here it should be noted that the National Bureau of Economic Research is based in Massachusetts (this is in the USA) and that two of its three authors are Americans (the third is British). Agree, for the glory of the dollar was baked and not such reports.

But why scourge the second key currency of the world, if everything is brilliant from the first? Probably, the Massachusetts PR move is exactly designed to polish something that does not shine.

The fact is that the use of the dollar in international calculations has already been called by analysts as “a bad habit.” And it is customary to get rid of bad habits. Well, many get rid of. It is quite successful. Without any signs of "disaster".

Today, five of the ten leading economies in the world (along with several others) already report with reference to the Activist Post, they do not use the dollar as an intermediary currency when trading.

“Australia, being 12 the world's largest economy, has joined the growing list of countries that have agreed to abandon the dollar in bilateral trade with China. China, being the second largest economy in the world after the USA, also has similar agreements with Japan (3 place), Brazil (6 place), India (9 place) and Russia (10 place). ”

Moreover, the other day the BRICS countries agreed to create their own development bank, which will compete with the IMF. This suggests that it is created for activities in a “post-dollar” world.

Marin Katus from Casey Research recalls that the bulk of the value of a dollar comes from a bond with the oil industry: if the dollar-oil monopoly orders to live a long time, the same thing happens with the value of a dollar. And there is one result that can be predicted definitely: gold will be more expensive. Uncertainty around paper money always bodes well for gold.

Analyst Julia Pentkovskaya, whose point of view leads Aydar Ermekov (Express K) believes that talking about a catastrophe that supposedly erupts after the collapse of the dollar is groundless. The collapse of the “American” is inevitable: it is a fake. Indeed, in the US there is no equivalent than to measure it, the expert notes. Therefore, it is no more than a candy wrapper.

And now fresh "golden" news.

According to IA "Finmarket", last year (only last year!), the central banks of different countries bought almost 15 millions of troy ounces of gold. Against others, the Russian Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China stood out. The agency "Bloomberg" even called Russia "the main buyer of gold of the decade." The reason for interest in gold in Russia and China is common, according to Finmarket analysts: the fall or even the collapse of the dollar is predetermined, and gold will not allow huge reserves of regulators to depreciate.

It can be said that Russia turned "black gold" into the usual: the Central Bank bought 10 tons of gold in 570 for years. If we assume that a troy ounce is 165 $, then the purchase price is approximately 30 billion $.

Jeff Clark from Casey Research believes that the first is the People’s Bank of China, which buys more gold, but does not tell anyone about it.

According to official estimates, the NBK owns 1054 tons of gold. According to Bloomberg, the Central Bank of China bought 425 tons of gold over the past ten years. In December, gold imports from Hong Kong broke record-breaking 109,8 tons. Imports for the entire 2012 of the year also reached record-breaking 572,5 tons. Total imports since the beginning of the 2001 year reached 1352 tons. In addition, China is the largest gold producer in the world. From 2001, imports plus mining amounted to 4793 tons of gold. According to economist and investor James Rickards, China has accumulated 2-3 thousands of tons of gold reserves. If this estimate is correct, then with 2009, the country has doubled its reserves. And the next cataclysm in the gold market will occur when China announces its real reserves. This will lead to an inevitable jump in prices for the yellow metal.

By the way, in absolute terms, Turkey has become the leader in gold purchases - with 5,2 million troy ounces. The country increased its gold reserves by 84,1%, to 11,56 million troy ounces. The Russian Central Bank bought 2,4 million troy ounces, increasing reserves by 8,5% (to 30,79 million troy ounces). Brazil bought 1,08 million ounces, doubling its reserves. Total central banks bought 15,2 million troy ounces of gold, and if you subtract sales from this amount, the net purchase will be 14,8 million ounces. This data is based on official reports of central banks and governments and does not include China and several other countries that have not provided relevant reporting.

The net growth in gold reserves in 2012 was 17% - more than the previous record increase recorded in 2011. Central banks even ignore the price dynamics, buying up rising gold.

Therefore, it is not so important who is the first in the gold race. The trend is important.

Finmarket analysts answered the question why central banks are “desperately” buying the yellow metal. Russian officials explicitly stated that gold would ensure the country's sovereignty if something happens to the dollar or the euro. And comrade Hu Jintao, the former head of China, said that the monetary system operating in the world is a “product of the past.” As for the leaders of developing countries, they declare the injustice of the dollar system and currency wars.

So far, the share of gold in the reserves of Russia is about 9,5%, and in the reserves of China - about 2%. But the central banks of the Russian Federation and China continue to buy gold. According to the forecast given on Finmarket, in 2015, gold will rise in price to 7000 dollars per troy ounce.

Finally, that planned cunning people from BRICS, encroaching on the holy of holies. Here is the most recent and most impressive example - the agreement between Brazil and China.

Galina Akimova ("Versions .com"), referring to the words of one of the popular bloggers, calls the use of the dollar in international calculations "a bad habit." At the summit of the BRICS countries in South Africa, the main news was the transition to national currencies. China and Brazil have completely switched to converting real to yuan.

A week and a half ago, the People’s Bank of China and the Central Bank of Brazil concluded an agreement on currency swaps of 190 billion yuan / 60 billion Brazilian reals (more than 30 billion dollars). From now on, businessmen of the two countries will be able to trade among themselves in the indicated volumes without the use of the dollar and without recalculating prices into the American currency.

However, while the new settlement system (the term of the agreement is three years) is working in trial mode. A swap of 30 billion dollars is, in essence, a bit. After all, the volume of bilateral trade between the Middle Kingdom and Brazil in 2012 year exceeded 75 billion.

However, the first step is the hardest. Analysts have no doubt that after running in a new mechanism, China will sign swap agreements with other BRICS countries.

All this, however, only suggests the correct idea of ​​China moving its yuan in the world. Not rejection of the dollar, and the emergence of such a new key currency - the yuan. Along with the euro and the dollar. The interests of BRICS China is unlikely to take into account, but their own - necessarily. But then he and China.

As economist Kimberly Amadeo writes, the lead column on About.comTwo conditions can lead to a fall in the dollar: first, the weakness of this currency; secondly, a viable alternative currency should emerge. In addition, something like a crash triggering event should happen.

The first condition exists now. The dollar lost in weight 54,7% against the euro in the period 2002-2012. The fact is that during this time, US debt has almost tripled, with 5,9 trillion. $ to 15 trillion $. The government can continue to depreciate its dollar - for the sake of profitable debt repayment.

Another question: where is the viable alternative to the dollar? Now the dollar is used in 43% of all cross-border transactions, writes K. Amadeo. As reserves of central banks, the dollar is 61%. The next most popular currency in the world is the euro (less than 30% reserves). The eurozone crisis has weakened the euro as a viable alternative to the dollar.

Here we come to China. And what? Yes, China and some other countries have arguments in favor of a new world currency. But it will be very difficult to replace the dollar in "mass order". A “global” determination will be required, the analyst says, and all this will not happen immediately.

Further about China. He owns more than a trillion dollars in US Treasury bonds. Why does he need it? Beijing pegs its yuan to the dollar, which allows it to keep US export prices relatively low. Japan is not lagging behind it either: it owns more than 800 billion dollars in treasury bonds and also maintains a low yen exchange rate to stimulate exports to the United States. This country is trying to get out of the 15-year deflationary cycle.

However, even if China, Japan and other large holders of dollar-denominated securities can throw stocks of treasury bonds into the secondary market, which can cause panic leading to the collapse of the dollar, they will not do this. Why?

Everything is simple. The economies of Japan and China are dependent on American consumers. They know, reminds Kimberly Amadeo, that if they sell their dollars, their products in the USA will rise in price, and their economy will suffer. Now they are still interested in keeping their dollar reserves. Yes, China and Japan are selling more and more products to other Asian countries, which are gradually becoming richer, but, nevertheless, the USA is still the most attractive market in the world.

Thus, the economist concludes, it is highly unlikely that the dollar will collapse. Any of the countries that are able to provoke this collapse (China, Japan and other foreign holders of dollars) do not want this to happen. It is not in their interest. Instead of collapsing, the dollar is likely to continue to fall gradually, as countries such as China or Japan find and develop other markets.

Here is such a plot. Having a little understood his intricacies, you realize that no one wants to “blame” the dollar, and the United States understands this very well. At the same time, everyone is insured against the possible fall of the dollar, as the Fed continues to “quantitative easing”, which is similar to insane money printing, and the US debt is growing rapidly, approaching 17 trillions of dollars. All those who have a lot of dollars in foreign currency reserves are insured - the same China, the same Russia. How are they insured? Buy gold. It is more expensive according to market laws. But the central banks are still buying it, and it is even more expensive. Meanwhile, the US national debt is growing, and the dollar is depreciating noticeably, which partly solves the debt problem of the US government. A blessing in disguise, as they say.

What can I give a forecast? In the coming years, the dollar will survive, but China will do everything possible so that the yuan will play the role of a new key currency. However, to strive to completely oust the dollar China - God forbid - will not. In Beijing, no fools live. First, such repression is fraught with the collapse of the Chinese economy, largely tied to the United States; secondly, it is beneficial for China to gradually weaken the yuan in order to gain more from the trade with the same United States: to get more yuan for the dollars gained. The output of the yuan in major key currencies will lead to the opposite - the strengthening of the national currency of China. Someday, of course, the Chinese will need it. Someday - but not today. Today they only set the stage for this.

Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for

The editorial board of Voenniy Obozreniye urgently needs a proofreader. Requirements: impeccable knowledge of the Russian language, diligence, discipline. Contact: [email protected]

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  1. tronin.maxim
    tronin.maxim April 9 2013 08: 24 New
    The fact that the Americans push the euro will not solve their problem completely is BRICS. The unleashing of wars around the world with the help of terror through the wrong hands is also a question. The unipolar world is gone!
    1. 755962
      755962 April 9 2013 11: 04 New
      What will follow the demise of the petrodollar?

      China, India and Russia linked their economic future with the abandonment of the debt dollar and a new gold-based economic rate. They are not going to retreat.

      When the dance called “arms control” ends, America may soon start a waltz with another partner, whose name is World War III.
      1. Papakiko
        Papakiko April 9 2013 17: 35 New
        Quote: 755962
        When the dance called “gun control” ends, America may soon start a waltz

        This is how the "quadrille" and "polka-butterfly" and "Viennese" and so on waltz into all over.
      2. iafet
        iafet April 9 2013 19: 03 New
        the information war is on and everyone can become its soldiers, it is necessary to bring the ideas of the green book to everyone, information about the Icelandic revolution, about the All-Russian association of voters - a popular project !!!!
    2. Sasha 19871987
      Sasha 19871987 April 9 2013 13: 45 New
      this piece of paper has only 2 cents per dollar, that is, the dollar is overvalued 50 times ... we draw conclusions ...
      1. Genady1976
        Genady1976 April 9 2013 18: 55 New
        I have long given up the dollar and I advise everyone.
      2. z-exit
        z-exit April 9 2013 19: 48 New
        Take the trouble to explain.
    3. Lord of the Sith
      Lord of the Sith April 10 2013 02: 58 New
      I advise everyone to watch this video

  2. Nesvet Nezar
    Nesvet Nezar April 9 2013 09: 14 New
    Crash. The USSR did not have economic reasons for the collapse. But Gorbachev ruined the USSR by opening up sales markets for the United States. But this did not help America either. They themselves abandoned their industry. So kirdyk America will definitely happen.
    1. Atlon
      Atlon April 9 2013 10: 29 New
      Quote: Nesvet Nezarya
      But Gorbachev ruined the USSR by opening up sales markets for the United States. But this did not help America either.

      It helped. To live another 20 years without worries. Robbing Russia. Now the shop is covered. If it were not for Gorby, but for example Putin instead, at that time ... Eh, the history of subjunctive moods does not tolerate ... But if only! Another world would be outside the window! And the United States would not exist long ago, but socialism could triumph on Earth ...
      1. avt
        avt April 9 2013 11: 07 New
        Quote: Atlon
        It helped. To live another 20 years without worries. Robbing Russia. Now the shop is covered.

        I agree + except closing the shop. Since the change of Pavlov’s reform banknotes, the shop has been working with varying success. Nobody canceled the link to the dollar request
        Quote: AlNikolaich
        Apparently the buck will fall irregularly!

        Well, then the pitching will fall behind laughing , but about the Chinese you are right, they will pull gold from everyone and they really need the amersky market, so they will buy "valuable" amersky government bonds for their own dollars.
        1. Atlon
          Atlon April 9 2013 11: 26 New
          Quote: avt
          I agree + except closing the shop.

          And I did not write that it was completely closed, I wrote that it was covered. Give a deadline and close! It’s just one thing to go to a supermarket, and another to a sample store ala Rus 90s, where on the shelves in free sale there is nothing but sprats. So ... the shop is covered that do not speak! lol
        2. Papakiko
          Papakiko April 9 2013 14: 33 New
          Quote: avt
          will be "valuable" amerskie government bonds to buy for their own dollars.

          And crush-crush the bourgeoisie crawling with a peep into all kinds of projects. Starting with raw materials and ending with space-aviation.
        3. iafet
          iafet April 9 2013 19: 34 New
          we can cancel the pegging to the dollar ourselves, how to do it - APPEAL -
          the technical embodiment of democracy in life !! Launch of the legalization of the organs of the RSFSR, USSR: we will return everything!
 - новый сайт
 - новый форум
          USSR newspaper -
  3. AlNikolaich
    AlNikolaich April 9 2013 09: 16 New
    Fine. Apparently there will be no sharp collapse of the dolar. But at the expense of a smooth decline, I do not agree. Apparently the buck will fall irregularly! Which definitely will cause a panic in world markets. Yuan, in terms of one of the world currencies, apparently very good. Further, it is not profitable for the Chinese to lose the Amer market as the main one, but it has the opportunity to pull gold from the Americans! And this must be taken into account!
    Well, wait and see!
    1. Corsair
      Corsair April 9 2013 10: 47 New
      Quote: AlNikolaich
      Apparently there will be no sharp collapse of the dolar. But at the expense of a smooth decline, I do not agree. Apparently the buck will fall irregularly!
      The graphic illustration of the jump is attached:
  4. Wolland
    Wolland April 9 2013 09: 35 New
    with events that occur in the world, it completely turns into ordinary waste paper.
  5. Pushkin
    Pushkin April 9 2013 09: 44 New
    Fine. Apparently there will be no sharp crash of dolar

    Will be. And very sharp. Now the dollar is backed by two factors - the currency reserves of China and the rest in dollars, and the US military power. The Chinese are forced to buy dollars in order to save trillions of their already accumulated dollars. Vicious circle. The rest are in the same position, including Russia. How long can this go on? As soon as the Bank of China once, even by accident, passes the time, and doesn’t have time to buy another kiloton of green paper, the whole system will be operational.
    The second factor is that the Pentagon, by its very existence, also forces us to buy dollars from weaker countries. If someone starts to show off, he suddenly learns about the complete absence of democracy at home. The presence of oil and other resources here is secondary
    And of these factors to ensure the dollar, the first seems to me more stable, but less durable
    1. cdrt
      cdrt April 9 2013 19: 11 New
      far from such a simple bunch.
      The dollar is provided not only with foreign exchange reserves, but primarily with use in cross-border trade (those same 41% of all cross-border transactions of the WORLD) - this is about 6.4 trillion dollars (in 2010). The next most important figure (not in volume, but in importance) is currency reserves.
      Well ... remembering Colomb - the conclusion: as long as the United States controls the oceans (in fact, even the Soviet Navy only contested their regional scale), the dollar will be largely the currency of world trade and, therefore, the most likely reserve currency.
      At the same time, it should be taken under control as an opportunity to ensure the safety of the main trade routes
      world trade, at the same time prohibiting the sea transportation of the enemy side.

      Knowing this, it is possible to depreciate the dollar even more and ALL OF THIS WILL BE SURVIVED, although some local projects on trade will and, on a regional scale, even shake the dominance of the dollar.
    2. Metlik
      Metlik April 10 2013 06: 21 New
      Now the dollar is backed by two factors - the currency reserves of China and the rest in dollars, and the US military power

      There is also US science, which is stronger than all scientific studies of developed countries combined. There are high technologies in the USA - China needs them very much. The US Army is the strongest in the world, again due to advanced technology. And let's not forget that the gold reserves of China and Russia are a drop in the bucket compared to the gold reserves of America. It's too early to bury a dollar.
  6. The comment was deleted.
    1. Atrix
      Atrix April 9 2013 10: 33 New
      As always, blah blah blah blah only with Dollars you can pay everywhere and you can pay the hell with the same ruble or yuan. The euro also does not seem to be pulling on the world currency, so there will be nothing with the dollar as long as the US
      1. JonnyT
        JonnyT April 9 2013 10: 41 New
        where is it everywhere? Try on this piece of paper in Russia to buy bread in the store! I go abroad, so there, too, preference is given to the local currency or the euro.
      2. Tektor
        Tektor April 9 2013 11: 41 New
        In fact, gold is not a refuge, because the price of this product is determined not by the MARKET, but by several bankers: one sits in London and interviews several at what price some will agree to sell and others to buy. Bankers, at some point, can SUBJECTIVELY set ANY price of gold. If the quotation of gold is removed from the control of the London Metal Exchange, then it will again become a measure of value ...
        Well, as for the dollar, the century of the pound was maybe more. The dollar, based on the analysis of technical data, can only exist until 2015. Therefore, the "dancing with a tambourine" began in 2005, which caused a series of crises since 2007 around the world. The goal is to destroy the dollar's competitors in order to remain "king of the hill". While this goal is being achieved, the percentage of international trade in dollars has been steadily declining. And the states live entirely off the interest from the turnover of dollars: they give to others at a higher percentage than they borrow themselves. This field is narrowing and will soon collapse ... The new financial institutions of the BRICS countries can bring down the dollar system: they can offer more reliable guarantees of savings.
        1. z-exit
          z-exit April 9 2013 20: 14 New
          But what difference does it make to you how the price of gold was determined there, the main thing is that you can buy physical metal at this price. And the "market" there is a price or "not market" let the luminaries of economic science argue, since this has little to do with practical reality. The fact that gold is not a refuge is your big delusion. If in the end and in fact, then the London fixing sets the value equivalent of gold in currencies. Do you feel the difference? There is no conspiracy here - they are the owners of the gold. When you buy gold, you will also become the owner of gold. And even then, as its owner will be forced to carry out his own "fixing" in his kitchen. You will decide on a home council to sell gold or not, and if you sell today, at what price. And the neighbors behind you will whisper as you are now))
          Well, and secondly, you hypertrophy the value of London fixing and mislead people.
          1. Tektor
            Tektor April 9 2013 23: 42 New
            "Well, and secondly, you hypertrophy the value of London fixing and mislead people.“You shouldn't be so underestimating the system of control in the financial field created by Rothschild. At first, the Rothschilds monopolized a significant share of gold, but then it turned out that it could have been easier: to establish price control ... If you look closely, it turns out that the frequency of crises in the second half The 20th century correlates very well with a sharp change in the value of gold, albeit on paper.The Rothschilds and Co., approximately once every 10 years, dramatically changed the value of gold in the direction they needed (to get super monopoly profits), while plunging the economies of other countries into crisis. fat, grazing in the market meadows, and at a convenient moment almost everything that they accumulated went to the "fat cats": the sheep were sheared and it was gold that played the role of a trigger.
            1. z-exit
              z-exit April 10 2013 01: 45 New
              I think you will be surprised, but the Rothschilds since 2004. Do not participate in fixing.
              The correlation of changes in gold prices and crisis phenomena is observed over time periods much longer than the “second half of the 20th century,” you will find such a correlation in the depths of millennia. Which is quite natural, reasonable and quite understandable without conspiracy theories, especially yours.
              1. Tektor
                Tektor April 10 2013 11: 28 New
                "I think you will be surprised, but the Rothschilds since 2004. not involved in fixing"- You are confusing me with someone. The Rothschilds left on the eve of the scandal with the replacement of gold with tungsten in bars. Now it has been revealed that out of the alleged 8 thousand tons of gold reserves of the states, only about 900 tons correspond to GLD. And the rest? Tungsten fakes, it turns out.
      3. Ascetic
        Ascetic April 9 2013 14: 32 New
        Quote: Atrix
        As always, blah blah blah blah only with Dollars you can pay everywhere and you can pay the hell with the same ruble or yuan. The euro also does not seem to be pulling on the world currency, so there will be nothing with the dollar as long as the US

        Of course it is possible. and since 2015 when the Chinese accumulate enough gold reserves and, according to the plans of their leadership, release the yuan by tying it to gold. it will also be possible to pay the yuan with gold provided as EMC and not oil like a dollar.
        That is, the dollar looms the prospect of losing the role of the only world currency since 2015. least.
        1. cdrt
          cdrt April 9 2013 19: 20 New
          how funny to hear at the same time: it's time to replace outdated a system pegged to the dollar, pegged to gold (note, mountainaazdo older system).

          You can also recall a very good job about the analysis of the Potomac cooperative of baby nannies wink
        2. cdrt
          cdrt April 9 2013 19: 23 New
          Rather, all countries in the crisis were led to the wiring (you yourself know who wink ) and set off to inflate the bubble in the gold market. Let me remind you - about 15 years ago, gold was many times cheaper, but before that it was more expensive, and now it’s generally 7000 USD. Now it will be massively purchased at the maximum price, and then the bubble will burst, depreciating the value of gold reserves again at times. Actually, those who set the price of gold will win again.
          As soon as the value of gold looks in accordance with the curves of Ellion, it will be possible to clearly predict the moment of collapse of the golden bubble.
          1. I think so
            I think so April 12 2013 17: 30 New
            Everything is turned upside down for you.
            "Let me remind you - 15 years ago, gold cost at times cheaper, and" - you are mistaken in this case and ALWAYS this phrase should be pronounced like this:
            "Let me remind you - 15 years ago, PAPER MONEY was MORE EXPENSIVE, and".
            You feel the difference - it is not GOLD that has risen in price, but PAPERS have fallen in price ... and it will be so for a very long time until those who print the dollar get their hands on property and assets of interest ... And then? And then usually WAR ... and after that everything is decommissioned, a new cycle begins ...
    2. z-exit
      z-exit April 9 2013 19: 54 New
      The words belong to the late Berezovsky by the way.
  7. bazilio
    bazilio April 9 2013 10: 01 New
    Similar news about buying gold, about trading for currencies other than the dollar and the euro, the creation of the BRICS bank, clearly indicate not only the collapse of the dollar, but also the desire of other countries to jump off the dollar.
    It is noteworthy how the BRICS has risen over the past 5-10 years. Previously, few people knew about BRICS and did not attach much importance to this organization. But now BRICS has the opportunity to become a force not only on a regional but also on a global scale. An analogy with NATO involuntarily suggests itself (yes, NATO is a military-political bloc, and BRICS is primarily an economic one) But look at the scheme of the real structure - the United States is in charge of NATO, and the rest are forced to agree. There are at least 2 equilibrium players in BRICS - Russia and China, so decisions will have to be made in concert, and not according to the scheme "I thought and we decided"
    1. Rebus
      Rebus April 9 2013 13: 57 New
      Quote: bazilio
      Similar news about buying gold, about trading for currencies other than the dollar and the euro, the creation of the BRICS bank, clearly indicate not only the collapse of the dollar, but also the desire of other countries to jump off the dollar.
      It is noteworthy how BRICS has risen over the past 5-10 years. Before, few people knew about BRICS and did not attach any particular importance to this organization. But now BRICS has the ability to become a force not only regional but also worldwide.

      It is hard to disagree, now the total BRICS GDP is more than $ 21 trillion and more than a third of the world's population. BRICS is a real economic force capable of influencing the global economy. BRICS is capable, if not kill, then move the dollar from the world stage.

      The future of the global economy:
      They will kill the dollar
    2. I think so
      I think so April 12 2013 17: 39 New
      It's funny you talk about "2 equilibrium players - the Russian Federation and the PRC" ...
      The giant of the PRC (2nd economy) and the peanut of the Russian Federation (10th economy). Russia was called to this BRICS only because of its NUCLEAR potential, raw materials orientation and a distinct anti-American position ... But in the rest of the Russian Federation, it is almost of no interest EVEN as a sales market ... too few people ...
  8. Gari
    Gari April 9 2013 10: 14 New
    From the book by Anthony Sutton
    "The Federal Reserve Conspiracy" in the Russian version - "The Power of the Dollar."

    She sets out step by step the history of the Federal Reserve System (FRS), America's main international financial institution, which controls the circulation of the dollar around the world.
    It turns out that the Fed is not a US government agency, but a purely private enterprise created secretly and illegally.
    Freedom-loving American presidents Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln tried to prevent the monopolization of finance in the hands of bankers, but the money mafia managed to impose its power.
    After a secret meeting in 1910 on Jekyll Island (Georgia), where a plan for the seizure of a financial monopoly was worked out under strict secrecy, a group of large capitalists led by J.P. Morgan enacted an extremely favorable Fed law.
    This law, which completely contradicts the American constitution, which Sutton calls "one of the most dishonest falsifications in the history of the United States," was passed under pressure, through bribery, in 1913, just before the First World War.
    The assault on the White House by bankers in Washington turned out to be much better prepared and conspiracy than the subsequent Bolshevik assault on the Winter Palace in St. Petersburg.
    Since that time, the “money trust”, hiding behind the facade of the Fed, begins to print dollar bills virtually uncontrollably.
    In Europe, wars and revolutions flare up, national economies collapse and rebuild, millions of people die and suffer, and against this dramatic background, American bankers from across the ocean solve their personal and personal problems with a machine that prints money that is not secured by gold.
    Money made with the help of fraud and adventure, was enough for many projects.
    One of the first wards of the Order was the ideologist of the communist revolution (and the enemy of the Russian Empire) Karl Marx. He was supported by the financial circles of America and Germany.
    Without big problems, bankers dressed up the formidable successor of Marx - Leo Trotsky (Bronstein).
    Together with his "party comrades" he was sent from exile back to Russia on a comfortable ship (Lenin, as you know, returned to revolutionary Petrograd in less convenient conditions, in a "sealed carriage", under the patronage of the German General Staff).
    After World War II, which began with the American provocation at Pearl Harbor, and ended with the destruction of the Third Reich, exhausted by the bloody battles of the USSR, dollars poured into the "free zone" of Europe with a wide river.
    The “denazification” and much of the Western reconstruction called the “Marshall Plan” were carried out with American money
    1. Grishka100watt
      Grishka100watt April 9 2013 10: 25 New
    2. Papakiko
      Papakiko April 9 2013 15: 11 New
      There is more than one documentary.
      Endgame Global Subjugation Project
      Spirit of time.
    3. bazilio
      bazilio April 9 2013 17: 38 New
      Quote: Gari
      In Europe, wars and revolutions flare up, national economies collapse and rebuild, millions of people die and suffer, and against this dramatic background, American bankers from across the ocean solve their personal and personal problems with a machine that prints money that is not secured by gold.

      but in 1944, the Bretten Woods Agreement was concluded, where the dollar was tied to gold. However, after a number of cases, especially when C. de Gaulle brought dollars and took a large amount of gold, the United States first sharply suspended the cost of a troy ounce, and in the 70s it terminated this agreement and from that moment the dollar again became a piece of paper not backed by gold
      1. cdrt
        cdrt April 9 2013 19: 28 New
        for some reason, everyone here notices the moment the dollar is untied from gold, but no one wants to pay attention to the economic growth that followed several years later, which lasted 20-30 years virtually continuously. Maybe it's worth considering how these moments are related? wink
        1. z-exit
          z-exit April 9 2013 21: 25 New
          Quote: cdrt
          for some reason, everyone here notices the moment the dollar is untied from gold, but no one wants to pay attention to the economic growth that followed several years later, which lasted 20-30 years virtually continuously. Maybe it's worth considering how these moments are related?

          Well, just a masterpiece!
          What kind of economic growth are you talking about in a couple of years?
          March 1968 - restrictions on the exchange for gold were introduced. And soon a ten-year worst crisis. Even now, this has not happened (for example, pop singers asked for a ganarar for performing in gold and not in dollars).
          The crisis is on the rise and finally reaches its climax - in 1978, gold flies up to heaven breaking the mark of $ 800 per ounce (compare with $ 35 ten years ago). A terrible panic.
          By the 80s, a slight calm before the storm begins. And here is the storm:
          Black Monday 1987 is a day that is not customary to remember and you may not have heard of such a thing. On this day, the Dow Jones index fell the most in its entire history, including even the crisis of the 20s and 30s.
          If the Soviet Union had not urgently collapsed, America would never have gotten out of this crisis.
          The collapse of the Union made it possible to produce an incredible in scale, just unprecedented export of inflation (I will not explain what export of inflation is). The United States is actively introducing a post-Soviet dollarization policy. And here she is manna from heaven! Stock prices reached dizzying heights. The growing real estate market. The period of euphoria and boom lasted a whole decade and ended on March 10, 2000 with a landslide drop in the NASDAQ index of high-tech companies, but this is another story that goes beyond the time period that you indicated ...
          In general, if you rephrase and compress all of the above, then the current crisis is systemic. Today we see a continuation of the same crisis as in the 70s, 80s, just Gorbachev and Yeltsin gave the United States 10 years of delay.
      2. Gari
        Gari April 10 2013 00: 41 New
        The United States profited heavily from the war. If in 1938 Washington’s gold reserve was 13.000 tons, in 1945 it was 17.700, then in 1949 it increased to a record mark of 21.800 tons, accounting for 70 percent of all world gold reserves.
        The Soviet Union was the first to rebel against BVS and the dollar. On March 1, 1950, a resolution of the Council of Ministers of the USSR was published in our newspapers: the government recognized the need to increase the official exchange rate of the ruble.
        I.V. Stalin, therefore, was the first to try to undermine the system of the gold standard of the dollar - and this seriously alarmed Wall Street.
        On April 1952, an international economic meeting was held in Moscow, at which the USSR, the countries of Eastern Europe, and China proposed the creation of an alternative trade zone to the dollar one. Interest in the plan was shown by Iran, Ethiopia, Argentina, Mexico, Uruguay, Austria, Sweden, Finland, Ireland and Iceland.
        At the meeting, Stalin first proposed the creation of a transcontinental "common market", which would operate its own interstate settlement currency. Stalin's death did not allow to bring the idea to its logical conclusion
        But the “Stalin case” was continued by Charles de Gaulle, who was elected President of France in 1958, and in 1965 was re-elected with the broadest powers that the country's presidents did not have before him.
        Having abandoned liberalism in the country's economy, De Gaulle achieved by 1960 the rapid growth of the country's gross domestic product.
        From 1949 to 1965, France’s gold reserves increased from 500 kilograms to 4.200 tons,
        The President of France created a dangerous precedent for the United States, other countries also decided to exchange their "green" for gold, followed by France, Germany presented dollars for the exchange
        After his “currency Austerlitz,” de Gaulle did not hold out in power for a long time. In 1968, mass student unrest swept France, Paris was blocked by barricades, and on the walls hung posters "13.05.58/13.05.68/28 - 1969/XNUMX/XNUMX, it's time to leave, Charles." April XNUMX, XNUMX, ahead of schedule, de Gaulle voluntarily left his post.
  9. Gari
    Gari April 9 2013 10: 25 New
    Caring for the welfare of subsequent generations, Soviet citizens bought, as family values: gold jewelry, silver utensils, expensive furniture, electrical appliances and other household utensils.
    Today, the legal and most common way to protect your financial risks is to save in "bucks", that is, the acquisition of the US dollar as a reserve currency.
    The degree of security of our dollar reserves, both hidden in the house and given temporarily to financial institutions, depends entirely on the degree of our confidence in the US dollar.
    For the United States, the growth of its own economy, as such, is not important. The goal of the American state is to convince us, through the propaganda machine, of the presence of the expected growth, to make us believe in it, taking into account the long-term perspective
    1. bazilio
      bazilio April 9 2013 11: 29 New
      Yes, but it will only become harder for them to convince us of the inviolability of their green candy wrappers with portraits of the presidents. The downward trend of the dollar is already clearly visible, a matter of time remains. The main thing is that they separate themselves from the dollar smoothly, so as not to cause a sharp collapse.
  10. 120352
    120352 April 9 2013 10: 28 New
    In the near future, about a hundred to two hundred years, the collapse of the dollar is not expected. He is his own dollar and a regulator in the domestic and foreign market. They will print more dollars - the rest of the currencies are going down, but not the dollar. Such is the Rothschild system, a system of a replacement economy in which values ​​are replaced by pieces of paper. Purely Jewish invention. For pieces of paper you can buy everything, and then cancel them. All are poor, and the Rothschilds are rich. We must come up with an alternative!
    1. Andrey57
      Andrey57 April 9 2013 11: 41 New
      There is a small caveat - they plan to provide the BRICS Development Bank with mattress treasuries, in which case Western banks will have to take them out to secure loans for the purchase of real goods, machinery, equipment, etc., which will actually mean that all this mattress waste will flow into the reverse side, moreover, and it is impossible to refuse such a "security" of loans to the West, because this would mean an instant bankruptcy of the United States and the entire Western financial system, so that mattress covers will choke laughing
  11. disa
    disa April 9 2013 10: 42 New
    "Well done" states. It was not possible to have a gesheft in Russia on a swoop, they bent down their friend Geyrop. What can you do? Who is easy now?.))) Concerning the dollar, gold and oil. I don't think there will be a gold standard. Firstly, because it was already at the turn of the XIX-XX centuries and was abandoned. Gradually. With the increase in oil production and the development of petrochemical branches, they turned oil into the main product of economies. The world economy runs on oil, not gold. Any attempts to push it off the dead center of oil dependence is met with stiff opposition because the oil dollar is more powerful by orders of magnitude of the gold standard. On the one hand, attempts to come to a different system stumble upon regression and retreat to the gold standard of the XNUMXth-XNUMXth centuries, and on the other hand, on the impossibility of progress without replacing the main energy carrier of the planet. Oil is traded in dollars. Opek works for dollars. Everyone in the world works and trades oil for dollars. There is no alternative to this scheme, hence the world "financial" crisis. For the dollar to collapse, it is necessary to destroy the oil trade for the dollar. This will not happen for one simple reason. Nobody in the world will transfer gold into the pockets of Arab sheikhs and make a golden superhegemon out of them, so they have candy wrappers in their hand. The main consumer in the world is the USA. Their market is like a pump. Any peripheral trade agreements outside the dollar's area of ​​influence are in the aggregate dangerous for the United States, and not safe for the oil civilization. Change of the world system can only be done by changing the energy carrier - "oil" for another energy carrier - "..." which can be traded almost as profitably. In general, the current problems are entirely the problem of money changers who have occupied the key backbone of any economy - the energy carrier, and bypassing the production of those who hold the main sales market, i.e. the main condition of trade is sales.
    1. mansur
      mansur April 10 2013 00: 53 New
      Quote: disa
      "Well done" states. It was not possible to have a gesheft in Russia on a swoop, they bent down their friend Geyrop. What can you do? Who is easy now?.))

      Bent it for sure
  12. Canep
    Canep April 9 2013 10: 44 New
    The dollar is now saved only by the fact that no one benefits from its collapse. As time passes, the BRICS countries will switch to national currencies (or the Yuan), the dollar will weaken even more, and that's it: "put out the light." The American will have to pay debts (16,8 trillion), the only way to do this is to print these pieces of paper. By the way, in Kazakhstan it has long been out of fashion to keep pieces of paper (even if they are green) under the mattress. Of all my acquaintances, only one holds euro cash.
    1. cdrt
      cdrt April 9 2013 19: 35 New
      I repeat - while the United States guards (provides, covers - whatever) the bulk of the global trade turnover, the dollar will be the main currency of world trade. You can even clarify - while the dollar will be the currency of trade only in strategic materials, while maintaining the dominance of the American fleet in the oceans, the dollar will be the main world currency (you can recall the fate of the British pound in the 20th century). Those who investigated this issue usually consider bonuses from the fact that your currency is the currency of trade, as payment for securing trade
  13. Simon
    Simon April 9 2013 11: 50 New
    Yes, no matter how much a dollar ball you blow, sooner or later it will burst anyway, only when will it be?
  14. _KM_
    _KM_ April 9 2013 11: 57 New
    In topic:
  15. Geisenberg
    Geisenberg April 9 2013 13: 04 New
    Quote: tronin.maxim
    The fact that the Americans push the euro will not solve their problem completely is BRICS.

    They do not solve problems. They need to be around like they have, read the devastation. Then, against the backdrop of general devastation, they will look pretty decent.
    1. cdrt
      cdrt April 9 2013 19: 43 New
      And you took it from him that the US is devastating?
      Yes, not sugar, but they will provide 2.1 - 2.3% this year.

      Debts are growing, but firstly there are countries with a large debt-to-GDP ratio, secondly they will print money and spread their inflation around the world (i.e., in percentage terms it will become much weaker than if it only hit the United States itself ), thirdly - cheaper dollar is beneficial for transferring the most interesting industries again to the USA - because the cost of labor will decrease.
  16. smart ass
    smart ass April 9 2013 13: 57 New
    So that the United States does not absorb INFLATION, it is necessary to withdraw the excess of freshly printed dollars from the economy of your country. Output on a massive scale, constantly! If all the largest economies in the world shut themselves away from it, then the US would have to sell the dollar forcibly ... That is, following the example of Libya, they bombed the country and the American corporations bombed ... Libya was looted by river, and oil and minerals returned ... beauty...
  17. Ascetic
    Ascetic April 9 2013 14: 38 New
    Extra money must be connected by something, otherwise hyperinflation simply paralyzes the world economy, because Now absolutely all currencies in the world are pegged to the US dollar.
    For some time, a reduction in social and other budget expenditures (the so-called “savings mode”) may work as a “binding agent”, but its effect is short-lived, since there are several dozen times more money in circulation than the size of world GDP. It’s impossible to save a lot. The volume of "candy wrappers" is already very large
    History does not know any other examples of the way out of world financial crises caused by the nature of capitalism as a system of relations than war. With the continuation of the policy of “quantitative easing,” war is inevitable. Only the type of war and the time of its beginning are unclear.
  18. _KM_
    _KM_ April 9 2013 14: 50 New
    Quote: Ascetic
    Only the type of war and the time of its beginning are unclear

    Permanent civil war?
  19. megatherion
    megatherion April 9 2013 17: 12 New
    On the subject:
  20. SPACE
    SPACE April 9 2013 17: 46 New
    The euro dollar is a swing, while the euro is an artificial created currency and, as many people think, was created as opposed to the dollar, and yes and no, the euro is just a new reflection of the dollar. look how they print money, first a softening package dollars, after a while the euro, the balance is maintained, well, so that there is no inflation. And they swing the swing together, so that the suckers get rocked and they jumped off. News: first ... the euro ends, cheers the dollar, after a while ... the dollar ends, cheers the euro, and so already 4. They really want to get out of the pit where they drag them. But there is no way out, overproduction of products around the world, automation of production creates great unemployment and reduces cost. The only way out is to destroy all production and take control of raw materials, but CHINA! at an exhibition in Gavnover, it will soon be a Chinese fair. And to whom is Russia sovereign? No, slowly and confidently they move into the abyss and either drown voluntarily or they can try to twitch and then they will be drowned forcibly. One hope for Russia and China may be India.
  21. Edas
    Edas April 9 2013 17: 54 New
    And on every dollar, traces of dirt are visible ... On every dollar - a lump of dirt from "profitable" military supplies ... On every dollar there are traces of blood ...
    V.I. Lenin
  22. pinecone
    pinecone April 9 2013 19: 01 New
    An unfortunate typo in the article. Not 165, but 1650 US dollars for this notorious "troy ounce", which the world financial kagal has adapted to use as a weight unit in determining the price of gold. The situation is similar with the world oil price, where a certain "barrel" is used. In either case, the Anglo-Saxon measures of weight with their "tails", which are not multiples of the generally accepted metric system of measures and weights, allow them to extract additional profit. The usual trade practice is "shrinkage", "weariness", etc. but already on a global scale.
  23. Backfire
    Backfire April 9 2013 20: 29 New
    I don’t understand one thing - what are you waiting for, and even with such trepidation and joy?
    Well, let's say the dollar will lose its place as the main reserve currency and become one of several world currencies, along with the yuan, the euro, and possibly the new currencies of Latin America and India.

    So what? What is this for you?
    Think your life will change for the better?
    Well, your masters ran to the "Washington Regional Committee" to bow, and will also start in "Peking" and "Brussels".

    By the way, the collapse of the world system of division of labor is a potential war. First, beyond the borders of new zones - currency and division of labor. And then between the existing "zones". You, or rather your children, grandchildren, will be blown into your ears, eyes, brain with another bullshit and will be sent to die in war supposedly "for Russia / Mother Russia / Fatherland" (underline the necessary), so that the children of the current "masters of life" will preserve and increase your capital.

    Not a single "enemy" over the past 20-25 years has brought so much harm, grief, suffering and humiliation to all residents of the former USSR as your elite. And you are all sick about the dollar.
  24. nod739
    nod739 April 9 2013 20: 31 New
    basis of the economy what? - labor
    who does not work shall not eat
    West bringing production to third countries - what? - wants to live off the labor of others
    - a well-built management system is the key to such a happy life,
    but only partly
    eventually you will have to either work yourself and gnaw granite - proving that you have the right to a place in the sun or die and cede this place to others
  25. Backfire
    Backfire April 9 2013 20: 35 New
    Quote: nod739
    basis of the economy what? - labor

    The basis of the economy, like many other things, is power.
    Do not believe? Ask any private entrepreneur or just hard workers who get the lion's share of the profit - the one who works or the one who controls and owns?
    1. SPACE
      SPACE April 9 2013 21: 58 New
      power is like water, the harder you try to squeeze and hold, the faster it leaves.
      I know a lot of hucksters who despised labor and people, and where are they ?, and they are at the same place.
      The basis of the economy is competition, the mind creates benefits, benefits benefits, benefits power.
  26. Backfire
    Backfire April 9 2013 22: 14 New
    Quote: SPACE
    power is like water, the harder you try to squeeze and hold it, the faster it leaves. I know a lot of hucksters who despised labor and people, and where are they ?, and they are wise. The basis of the economy is competition, the mind creates advantages, benefits, benefits power.

    Well, if you associate the word "power" with hucksters, then you still have a lot of interesting things to learn in life.

    And where does the power and contempt for work? Real power is a lot of work.

    And what about "where are they?" If you are about the Rothschilds, Schiffs, Queens, Leeb, Oppenheimers, Rockefellers, Saxons, etc. So they are where they are needed - in full chocolate and for more than one hundred years.

    About intelligence and competition. For example, in the USA in 2008, banks that were supposed to go broke - stupidly received money from the state and the Fed. Their "securities" were bought back at 100 cents per dollar instead of a few cents. What is it that requires the mind?

    Competition is a carrot for a herd, so that hamsters tear their veins throughout their lives to achieve the unattainable.

    Well, what about "the tighter you squeeze, the faster it leaves." So they took it into account long ago - the management of the world is structureless. The maximum to whom the people, in case of problems, turn their anger - pawns, such as presidents and prime ministers. The names of the true owners do not sound, even their presence is not discussed!
    1. SPACE
      SPACE April 9 2013 22: 46 New
      Quote: Backfire
      And what about "where are they?" If you are about the Rothschilds, Schiffs, Queens, Leeb, Oppenheimers, Rockefellers, Saxons, etc. So they are where they are needed - in full chocolate and for more than one hundred years.

      Yeah, these are not even people, they are just symbols, their problem is that they are not eternal, the government does not tolerate competition, especially of such hucksters, tell me more that they have a plan, and we will laugh together.
  27. Corsair
    Corsair April 9 2013 23: 25 New
    Quote: AlNikolaich
    . Apparently the buck will fall irregularly!
    Here was a commentary depicting a dolar that fell in POPU. Where is IT?!? lol
  28. Backfire
    Backfire April 9 2013 23: 31 New
    Quote: Corsair
    Here was a commentary depicting a dolar that fell in POPU. Where is IT?!?

    Apparently here:
  29. Alikovo
    Alikovo April 10 2013 00: 30 New
    so the dollar falls
    1. Backfire
      Backfire April 10 2013 00: 41 New
      Dreams Dreams ....

      Entrance to reality here:
  30. vanderhaas
    vanderhaas April 10 2013 02: 23 New
    Article from the series 'On the advantages of socialism'. Why nothing needs to be done so that the enemies don't care.
    The dollar will fall, it will not fall, who will get better or worse from this?
    In addition to oil, the United States produces a lot more, and, most interestingly, they will produce it. And the dollar is a symbol, like any other currency. While US citizens themselves believe in this symbol (and they believe it very firmly), inside the states nothing threatens the dollar, especially since the bulk of trade operations are non-cash. Greasy greens mostly go around the world.
    And now remember how Russian citizens in the 90s of the last century lowered the ruble themselves, with their inflationary expectations (heated, by the way, from the inside of the country by currency speculators). And draw conclusions.
  31. _KM_
    _KM_ April 10 2013 10: 23 New
    Do they produce anything in the USA? Curious what? Unless cruise missiles and aircraft carriers. Interesting dollar collateral.
  32. penguin
    penguin April 10 2013 13: 47 New
    in all countries, the currency is secured by gold and industry, and in the states by future loans, aircraft carriers and the army.
  33. Captain45
    Captain45 April 10 2013 21: 19 New
    There is a small observation on the topic of the dollar: who remembers the criminal chronicle of the 90's and the beginning of the 2000's when various crooks and crooks were detained, they showed the values ​​seized during the searches, and as a rule they were packs of dollars. And now I’ve noticed lately that more and more often rubles are withdrawn, though also in large quantities, but rubles. This leads to some thoughts about the stability of star-striped cash, since crooks prefer to store savings in rubles, this, as Winnie the Pooh said, is not casual.
  34. Backfire
    Backfire April 10 2013 21: 37 New
    Quote: Captain45
    the valuables seized during the searches, and as a rule these were packs of dollars. And now, recently, I notice that more and more rubles are being withdrawn

    In fact, everything is very simple.
    Those who steal in dollars and euros have not carried them in bundles for a long time, all through accounts and offshore. And even if he wears it, then it’s not they themselves, but their lackeys and under the protection of the FSO - go zadrzhi!