A Fairy Tale Not for Children: "Golden Dome" versus "Yars" and "Bulava"
In fact, the Americans received the news that the development of the ambitious Golden Dome missile defense system, a multi-purpose shield designed to counter next-generation threats from land, sea, air, and even space, had been completed with a fair amount of skepticism.
It would all be fine, but the presentation was given by US President Donald Trump, and his statements are pouring out like water from a horn of plenty. Before he could surprise everyone with the F-55, the Golden Dome arrived.
Considering that this venture is directed against us (okay, against China and us), we will nevertheless allow ourselves to calmly assess both the level of shock value in this matter and the level of money spent. And this is one of the most important indicators in our time.
So Donald Trump said the shield will be able to intercept missiles, "launched from the other side of the world or from space," calling it a revolutionary breakthrough in the field of defense.
The Golden Dome, partly inspired by Israel's Iron Dome, is designed for much larger scale use and to combat more advanced missile threats.
However, it is expected to be significantly larger and designed to counter a wider range of threats, including hypersonic missiles and orbital bombardment systems known as FOBS, which can deliver warheads from space. The Golden Dome system will use advanced technologies, including space-based sensors and interceptors, to provide comprehensive coverage.
Speaking in the Oval Office, Trump emphasized that the system is aimed at neutralizing threats at several stages - before launch, in flight, and even from orbital platforms.
“There really is no system right now,” Trump said. “We have certain missile deployment areas and certain missile defenses, but there is no system… There has never been anything like this.”
Well, it's a fact. No country in the world has been able to develop a full-fledged missile defense system. Especially a country of decent size, which is why the US covered its ICBM launchers with anti-missiles, and the USSR covered Moscow. But the mines in the deserts of Wyoming and Montana are not all of the US, and Moscow is not all of Russia.
The project has been allocated an initial budget of $25 billion, although the government estimates the total cost could rise significantly over the next few decades.
The US President also announced that General Michael Getlein, the US Space Force's Deputy Chief of Space Operations, would be appointed to lead the project. A good appointment, General Getlein is a very strong specialist who understands air and space matters.
The ambitious program reflects growing concerns in the United States that existing missile defenses are not keeping pace with increasingly sophisticated weapons, being developed by potential adversaries such as Russia and China.
In the face of the proliferation of hypersonic weapons and fractional orbital bombardment systems, the Golden Dome is designed to provide a robust, multi-layered defense capable of intercepting these fast-moving and difficult-to-detect threats.
“They will all be confused,” Trump said confidently, emphasizing that “the probability of success of the system is close to 100 percent.”
The statement is, of course, controversial, especially when the system exists solely on paper. But that is the style of the American president - first we'll throw in some heat, then we'll sort it out. In reality, I'd like to see the test results when they come. But that's a separate issue altogether.
Trump has said the program would require an initial investment of $25 billion, with the total cost over time being $175 billion. However, the Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the government could end up spending as much as $542 billion over 20 years on the space components of the system alone.
And they know how to count in Congress, they do. And the Congressional figure seems more plausible: the Golden Dome is a very ambitious and expensive project that could have serious consequences beyond protecting American airspace. Why? Let's watch and count.
The Golden Dome missile defense system will cost about $175 billion and be operational in “less than three years” with a “success rate close to 100 percent,” President Donald Trump has said. Its price tag stands in stark contrast to projections of more than half a trillion dollars and has raised concerns about weapons in space and the proliferation of nuclear weapons there.
So, there are two numbers: $175 billion and $500 billion. And the Congressional number is almost three times larger than Trump's number. Perhaps the experts from the Congressional Budget Office really jumped above their heads, because they were able to calculate the dynamics of the project's price growth.
Oh, it's no secret to anyone in the world that any US military project... gets more expensive over time. Here, as an example, it's enough to recall the F-22, which can serve as an excellent example of American-style price increases. If you recall, the initial cost of one Raptor was supposed to fluctuate around 40 million dollars. For the 80-90s of the last century, it was a crazy price. It was planned to order 750 aircraft, accordingly, the cost of the program with R&D was estimated at about 40-45 billion dollars.
However, the real price with R&D and pre-production was 74 billion dollars, and this is despite the fact that only 187 serial aircraft and 7 prototypes were manufactured. That is, the cost of one aircraft together with R&D is 370 million dollars. Without design and production work, "cleanly" - 146 million dollars.
That is, instead of 750 aircraft at 40 million each – 187 aircraft at 140 million.
We can go further and list similar situations during the construction of the Seafull submarines, the Independence and Freedom littoral ships, the Zumwalt destroyers and the Ford aircraft carriers. But there are no prerequisites yet that the B-21 will also be an exciting show.
The essence is one: everything invented for the army and fleet The US is simply obliged to become 3-4 times more expensive during the production process! And it is becoming more expensive!
Well, who will say that it will be any different with the "Golden Dome"? It is a system. It is not so easy to change a system, this is an axiom for any country, with any way of life.
“Our adversaries are rapidly modernizing their nuclear forces, building ballistic missiles that can carry multiple warheads, building hypersonic missiles that can attack the United States within an hour and travel at 6000 miles per hour, building cruise missiles that can evade our radars and defenses, building submarines that can sneak up on our shores, and, worse, building space weapons,” Getlein said. “It’s time to change that equation and redouble our efforts to defend the homeland.”
As for space weapons, this is somewhat unproven, but nothing can be done, this is the principle of American democracy: to frighten citizens to the point of madness, and it is easier to control clouded minds. The only proof has left the presidency: wasn't it obvious what Biden is? And nothing, they voted.
"We're the only ones who have this - we call it super technology," Trump said.
"The Golden Dome will be integrated with our existing defence capabilities and should be fully operational by the end of my term."
"The Golden Dome will be integrated with our existing defence capabilities and should be fully operational by the end of my term."
That is why it is worth treating with caution all of Trump’s statements, from reconciling Russia and Ukraine in a day to building a defense system in three years.
After all, representatives of the US Defense Department have repeatedly made very loud statements about what will be called the "Golden Dome." The emphasis was on intercepting approaching threats before they reach the country's territory, and ideally at the acceleration stage, not far from the launch site.
Here, anyone will start to turn their head, wondering how the Americans will be able to intercept an ICBM at the acceleration stage if it is launched from the Urals region.
The boost phase is when ballistic missiles and highly maneuverable hypersonic boosters that use rocket boosters are slowest and most vulnerable. The bright plume of hot gas also makes them easier to detect and track for interception. But how the U.S. military plans to shoot down an ICBM 11 kilometers from its territory is a roughly billion-dollar question.
Who said: "From space"? I agree. It's not 11 thousand kilometers, it's a thousand at most.
But implementing the Golden Dome concept in orbit will require advanced early-warning systems and an armada of tracking satellites. Much of this work is already underway, though it will likely be greatly accelerated and expanded under the Trump administration’s new initiative. Interceptors and sensors on the planet’s surface will be another part of the Golden Dome architecture, including terminal and midcourse intercept capabilities to defend against ballistic and hypersonic missiles.
The Golden Dome system will also have to counter growing threats from cruise missiles and drones, although in the recent past the focus has been on missile defense against ballistic and hypersonic missiles. But recently, UAVs have come to dominate the battlefield as never before, and the potential of cruise missiles has increased significantly.
According to statements made by various officials, existing and new sensors and actuators under development will be integrated into the system. In order for it to operate as a single, multi-layered defense system, new command and control architectures and networking capabilities will be required.
An image providing an overview of the coverage provided by current U.S. missile defense elements within the United States and around the world.
The Golden Dome system will have an open architecture and will not be tied to any one supplier or group of suppliers. This will allow for rapid integration of new capabilities and provide more competitive conditions for procurement and maintenance.
The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) last week released an unclassified assessment titled “America’s Golden Dome: Current and Future Missile Threats to the Homeland,” which outlines the threats that the United States’ sophisticated missile defense system must protect against. The threats include ballistic missiles, long-range cruise missiles, and hypersonic missiles launched from the air, land, and submarines.
“Missile threats to the U.S. homeland will grow in scale and complexity over the next decade,” DIA explained. “China and Russia are developing a range of new delivery systems to exploit gaps in existing U.S. missile defenses, but traditional ballistic missiles, which are guided while in flight and unguided while in free flight, will remain the primary threat to the U.S. homeland.
North Korea has successfully tested ballistic missiles with a range sufficient to hit the entire United States, and Iran has space launch vehicles that it could use to develop a capable intercontinental ballistic missile by 2035, if Tehran chooses to pursue that path. Most of the systems presented here have nuclear-capable variants."
North Korea has successfully tested ballistic missiles with a range sufficient to hit the entire United States, and Iran has space launch vehicles that it could use to develop a capable intercontinental ballistic missile by 2035, if Tehran chooses to pursue that path. Most of the systems presented here have nuclear-capable variants."
The US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) recently released an assessment of the missile threats facing America.
The Golden Dome is not the first attempt by the U.S. military to develop and deploy space-based missile defenses. However, numerous previous attempts have been abandoned due to technical difficulties and high costs. Space-based weapons were a key element of the Reagan-era Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), which critics infamously dubbed “Star Wars,” and which never came close to achieving its ambitious goals.
Artist's rendering of a Star Wars-era particle beam missile defense system. Los Alamos National Laboratory, Aerospace Projects Overview
And one of Trump’s first official actions in his second term was to order the U.S. military to move forward with plans for a vastly expanded missile defense architecture. Calling for new space-based interceptors, the concept was something Trump talked about on the campaign trail and made official in an executive order on Jan. 27.
The plan called for the creation of a “new generation missile defense shield” that “should include, at a minimum, the following eight components”:
- Defending the United States against ballistic, hypersonic, advanced cruise missiles, and other next-generation air attack assets from peer, near-peer, and hostile states;
- Acceleration of deployment of a space echelon of hypersonic and ballistic tracking sensors;
- Development and implementation of numerous space interceptors capable of intercepting targets in the acceleration phase of the trajectory;
- Deployment of interception assets at the acceleration and final stages to repel attacks using false targets;
- Development and implementation of a control level in an extended military space architecture;
- Development and implementation of means to repel missile attacks before launch and during the acceleration phase;
- Development and implementation of a secure supply chain for all components with next-generation security and fault-tolerance features;
- Development and application of non-kinetic means to enhance the kinetic destruction of ballistic, hypersonic, advanced cruise missiles and other new generation air attacks.
Regarding the point about repelling missile attacks before launch: in the old days, such "defense" was called a "preemptive strike" and had about the same relationship to defense as a meat-packing plant has to a vegan store. But that's not what we're specifically interested in.
The bottom line is that the Golden Dome will be a massive undertaking, fraught with technological risks and supply chain issues. Regardless of what Trump has said or what he may yet direct, the Dome will take a long time to build, and all of its systems will need constant updating and development to remain relevant.
The cost of developing, purchasing, and deploying the Golden Dome will be only part of the overall financial picture. Once deployed, the system will need to be maintained, staffed, and continually upgraded as technology advances and the threats it is designed to combat emerge. That means Russian and Chinese missiles.
This is happening at a time when the US military has competing important programs for which it has no money, even though they are considered critical. And there are peaceful ones, without which it cannot do either. For example, the modernization of nuclear energy is one of the most expensive programs, for which money is allocated with a screeching sound, because it is not so much money, but the Amounts.
So even if a whopping $2026 billion were allocated to the Golden Dome in FY25 (that's two new Ford-class aircraft carriers, by the way!) and other competing programs were paid for, it's doubtful that that funding would be sustained for many years, especially in an era of rising deficits.
Donald Trump will leave the White House in three and a half years, and who will replace him (and most importantly, how he will react to Trump's programs) is a big question. Just for 25 billion dollars, which by that time will have already been spent.
And it is worth paying attention to the strategic impact of the Golden Dome. Strategic missile defense, especially on a large scale, calls into question the deterrent capabilities of adversaries. That is true because its effectiveness will not be easy to test. However, the very presence of the Golden Dome will encourage some powers to begin working on ways to bypass this defense system.
Moreover, neither Russia nor China will have to turn themselves inside out and invent some new super-missiles. It is enough to simply increase the number of “regular” missiles. The same “Bulava” costs “only” 12,5 million dollars, but it can cause trouble… And the creation of a much larger number of missiles and nuclear warheads for them can easily fatally overload the capabilities of the defense system. Iran has demonstrated very well how this can be done, using the example of an attack by Israel.
But, excuse me, 90% of the stuff flying to Israel was junk, which the country fought off with all its might, and even got help from its neighbors and friends from NATO from ships. And in the event of SUCH an attack, no one will help.
In other words, having a large-scale strategic missile defense could lead to unchecked proliferation. It is usually cheaper to simply build more weapons that can be quickly aimed at an adversary than to build and deploy interceptors to counter them.
Of course, if you place space platforms with kinetic interceptors, lasers and other exotic systems in orbit, you can hear the "chpy-chpy-chpy" of the printing press, drawing the next billions of dollars. Otherwise, it just won't work.
Moving to bypass strategic defenses is a realistic move for Russia and, to a lesser extent, China. This is in contrast to America's current relatively weak strategic missile shield, which is only suitable for defending against attacks from rogue states with very few missiles.
Weaponizing space, including placing kinetic weapons in orbit, also deserves attention. This precedent would accelerate the already rapidly evolving orbital arms race and accelerate the development of counterspace capabilities by America’s most visible adversaries. At a time when space as a battlefield is becoming an increasingly real threat, the Golden Dome could make it far more dangerous than it is today, because both Russia and China could place satellite bombs into orbit that would simply wipe out the U.S. orbital satellite constellation before H-hour.
If the traditional method of delivering a nuclear warhead is blocked or even seriously compromised, another method will be found, which could undermine strategic predictability and make defending against a nuclear attack even more costly.
And now China and Russia have issued a joint statement, in which, in particular, they condemned the Golden Dome:
“First of all, this means a complete and unconditional refusal to recognize the existence of an inextricable link between strategic offensive and strategic defensive weapons, which is one of the central and fundamental principles of maintaining global strategic stability.
The project also provides additional impetus for the further development of kinetic and non-kinetic means to defeat missile weapons and the infrastructure that supports their use before launch.
The situation is further aggravated by the fact that the “Golden Dome for America” program also directly provides for a significant increase in the arsenal of means for conducting warfare in space, including the development and deployment of interception systems in orbit, turning outer space into a weapons environment and an arena for armed confrontation.”
The project also provides additional impetus for the further development of kinetic and non-kinetic means to defeat missile weapons and the infrastructure that supports their use before launch.
The situation is further aggravated by the fact that the “Golden Dome for America” program also directly provides for a significant increase in the arsenal of means for conducting warfare in space, including the development and deployment of interception systems in orbit, turning outer space into a weapons environment and an arena for armed confrontation.”
In fact, there are probably those who will argue that spending hundreds of billions of dollars to deploy this system, along with other conventional and strategic weapons, will be a far more effective way of deterring attacks before they happen than building a massive static missile defense shield. Perhaps, but not necessarily.
If there are any clear winners in the Golden Dome, it is the defense industry. This is an absolutely massive project that will require huge sums of money to implement. It was not on the agenda before Trump took office, so we are talking about a whole new set of programs that will cost billions of dollars in both research and development and procurement that simply did not exist before.
Naturally, the Golden Dome project will be of great interest not only to the usual manufacturers of missile (and therefore anti-missile) weapons such as Lockheed Martin or Raytheon, but also to companies in the space industry. And IT companies will follow suit, since everything created must be supported by software products and protection from external attacks. These “Russian hackers” are such a mega-evil, as we know…
But there is a silver lining: the very idea that the United States would attempt to create such a complex strategic defense ecosystem could push the parties to negotiate strategic arms reductions. We have seen a gradual deterioration in the situation with existing treaties that limited the spread of nuclear weapons between major powers. The threat of the Golden Dome becoming a reality could push not only Russia to participate in the negotiations, but especially China, which has been the missing piece in potential future strategic agreements.
It is also worth noting that Trump has repeatedly mentioned his fear of nuclear weapons and his desire to significantly reduce the risk of a nuclear apocalypse through a major strategic arms reduction agreement.
But this is a prospect, yes, a very distant one, but nevertheless.
At this point, we know a little more about what is at least being touted as the Trump administration’s “Golden Dome” plan. And we can understand and appreciate both the enormity of the project and the impossibility of its implementation within Trump’s timeline. It will be years before we see whether the Golden Dome becomes anything resembling reality.
That 26 billion will transform into 175 billion, and then into 500 billion, without any magic, is clear and understandable. This is what the well-being of many in the US is based on: to bite off their piece of the big pie. However, this is happening in almost all countries of the world, the only question is the scale.
Let's remember President Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative: 10 years of work on all these nuclear and chemical lasers, neutron particle emitters, railguns, atomic buckshot, kinetic interceptor satellites gave practically nothing except a significant weakening of the USSR economy. 10 billion dollars spent did not bring results, or rather, there were results, but in comparison with the amounts spent, the word "microscopic" was best suited. Missiles with kinetic interceptors - that's probably all that has come from "Star Wars" to our days.
For some reason, there is complete confidence that in four years, by the end of Trump's presidency, we are unlikely to see space platforms with interceptors in orbit and anti-missile batteries on the ground. It is not a matter of money, there are no problems with that. Time is not on Trump's side. And we will see to what extent their super-technologies, which Trump spoke about, will be good for anything meaningful.
And let us emphasize so boldly: we would not like to check the solvency of the "Golden Dome". This is a one-time matter after all.
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