Military Review

Professor of Moscow State University predicted a world war in the coming decade

44
Professor of Moscow State University predicted a world war in the coming decadeSergei Malkov, a member of the Academy of Military Sciences, a professor at MSU, said on Thursday that the next world war could begin in the next ten years, but it is currently impossible to predict its nature.


According to him, the world is completing "the fifth wave of Kondratiev and moving on to the sixth technological order."

According to Malkov, in the next decade the world will face "strong political and technological instability," and countries that fail to move to the sixth technological cycle from the fifth may lag behind in the development of technology by 50 years.

The relevant conclusions were made by specialists from Moscow State University, Interfax reports.

Kondratieff cycles (K-cycles or K-waves) are periodic cycles of the modern world economy with a duration of 40 – 60 years. Long cycles are interconnected.

At present, it is believed that the relative correctness of the alternation of the upward and downward phases of Kondratieff waves (each phase 20 – 30 years) is determined by the nature of the group of nearby medium-term cycles.

During the upward phase of the wave, the rapid expansion of the economy inevitably leads society to the need for change. But the possibilities of changing society are lagging behind the demands of the economy; therefore, development goes into a downward phase, during which crisis-depressive phenomena and difficulties force us to restructure economic and other relations.

Recall that the First World War lasted four years - from July 28 1914 to November 11 1918. As a result of the war, four empires ceased to exist: the Russian, Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman, and Germanic (although the Weimar Republic that emerged instead of the Kaiser Germany, formally continued to be called the German Empire). The participating countries lost more than 10 million people killed by soldiers, about 12 million civilians killed, about 55 million were injured.

World War II (September 1 1939 - September 2 1945) was the largest war in stories humanity (world war). It was attended by 61 state of the existing at that time (80% of the population of the globe). The fighting took place on the territory of three continents and in the waters of four oceans. This is the only conflict in which nuclear weapon.

The third world war is called a hypothetical global military conflict. In the 20th century, the United States and the USSR could become the most likely initiators of the Third World War.
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  1. Grishka100watt
    Grishka100watt April 5 2013 10: 18 New
    15
    It feels like the article was underprinted)
    1. klimpopov
      klimpopov April 5 2013 10: 19 New
      +3
      I will support! Some scrap. In general, now everyone is predicting. PR is such a PR ...
    2. angolaforever
      angolaforever April 5 2013 10: 24 New
      12
      A handful of minorities need war, and for most innocent people it will only bring pain and suffering.
      1. Grishka100watt
        Grishka100watt April 5 2013 10: 46 New
        +7
        A handful of minorities need war


        a handful of minorities, I would correct)
    3. Nevsky
      Nevsky April 5 2013 10: 50 New
      12
      Everything is predicted: From Vanga to the professor, from Uncle Kolya the neighbor to Zhirinovsky ... And we continue to go to work, raise children .. soldier
      1. Dinver
        Dinver April 5 2013 18: 17 New
        0
        It’s not necessary to go to a fortune-teller and that’s understandable. But what it will be and where, no one can affirmatively answer this question. The West needs a big war for the so-called “reset of capitalism”, which will write off old debts and pull out the economy with military orders.
        1. Beck
          Beck April 6 2013 17: 24 New
          0
          These forecasters, the strobes of which just do not add. And the global floods, and global droughts, and space disasters. Here is the author in the same steppe, to hell with horns and where Makar calves did not pass.

          Well, what are the reasons for a world war, other than author’s invented cycles? Such forecasters take as the basis only one technical development or one sphere of human activity, for example, economic development and automatically discard other areas and spheres and the general tread of civilization.

          What led to two world wars? To the first, in my opinion, this is the stupidity of sovereign conceit. You see the Arch-Duke, some fan killed .. Now such opinions are orders of magnitude lower. And even if the murder of a leader does not serve as a basis for war and the death of another 10 million military and 11,5 million civilians. The Second World War became a purulent abscess of the end of the colonial era. Countries late for the division of the colonies unleashed 2 MB in which 50 million people died.

          Now what are the reasons? The world community has become more humane, it no longer divides people by skin color and eye shape. So there are no reasons for national superiority. There is no colonialism either; there is nothing to divide. And the unevenness of economic development, so it accompanied humanity throughout its history.

          The danger of 3 MB was from 1945 to 1991. When a communist, vicious ideology opposed itself to the whole world and brandished an atomic club. Even in this atomic confrontation between the United States and the USSR, war was not unleashed. Why should she be now. The USSR behaved in those years, just as the communist DPRK behaves now. The first time the confrontation was a tragedy, now a farce.

          There is no now and in the future no reason to start a world war. Especially in the future when human relationships will be more tolerant and humane.
    4. Deniska999
      Deniska999 April 5 2013 18: 29 New
      0
      Likely.
  2. avt
    avt April 5 2013 10: 24 New
    0
    Quote: Grishka100watt
    It feels like the article was underprinted)

    No, it was even reprinted. laughing This military academician simply did not finish his cheeks. laughing But interestingly, at MSU he is a professor of what? Maybe he didn’t grow together at the Moscow State University, that with such opuses he trampled on military academics?
    1. Internet fighter
      Internet fighter April 5 2013 10: 54 New
      0
      Well, yes ... Explain the evil will of enemies to K-cycles and K-waves, this is very professorial.

      Recall that the First World War lasted four years - from July 28, 1914 to November 11, 1918. As a result of the war, four empires ceased to exist: the Russian, Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman and German

      I always thought that due to propaganda and as a result of the revolution, RI was reformatted into the RSFSR. Simply incomparable.

      PS: Hello everyone, I haven’t been announced here for a long time.
    2. treskoed
      treskoed April 5 2013 11: 05 New
      +3
      Maybe a professor of astrology? As if predicting the stars!
    3. TRAFFIC
      TRAFFIC April 5 2013 13: 36 New
      0
      Well, he's a mathematician,
      Sergei Yurievich Malkov (born August 8, 1955) is a Russian mathematician, a specialist in mathematical modeling of the dynamics of social, economic and technical systems, as well as cliodynamics. Leading researcher at the Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, professor at the Faculty of Global Processes, Moscow State University
      .So here
      Cliodynamics is an interdisciplinary field of research focused on the mathematical modeling of socio-historical processes
      According to the publication of the scientific journalist Laura Spinney in Nature, most historians are deeply skeptical of cliodynamics, evaluate the prospects of cliodynamics critically and are not sure of the possibility of successfully applying its methods in historical science [1]. Some, like Sergei Kapitsa, emphasized that “the general issues of applying mathematics methods to social phenomena also require more attention and understanding” and in many cases “we can only talk about high-quality,“ soft “modeling.” So he is a serious scientist, but not the fact that his forecasts are justified ..
      1. Egen
        Egen April 5 2013 13: 57 New
        +2
        Quote: TRAFIC
        Well he is a mathematician

        I'm not a mathematician, but a marketer :) There was such Igor Ansoff, in 1964 he published a wonderful book about competition, where he introduced the concept of the uncertainty coefficient. Mathematically calculated. According to him, for those less than 4 (on the 5th scale) forecasts are simply pointless. After the stabilization of the Russian Federation after the crisis of 98-99, I decided to calculate this set, spent a week on rough calculations, got a little more than 3, and spat :)
        The bottom line is this: according to probability theory, someone from 2 points of view will certainly come true :))
        1. gas
          gas April 5 2013 14: 54 New
          +1
          This is not that. The economy is cyclical, fixed assets are arranged in cycles; it has nothing to do with competition. It’s like a generation of airplanes- new, more advanced, obsolete on metal appear ... So are the main assets, machine tools and equipment. I can’t explain much easier here, much is intertwined — the main thing is the crisis of overproduction — a cancerous tumor of capitalism.
      2. gas
        gas April 5 2013 14: 49 New
        0
        What does cliodynamics have to do with it? He only talked about the theory of Kondratiev.
      3. GELEZNII_KAPUT
        GELEZNII_KAPUT April 5 2013 19: 57 New
        0
        Economy subject foggy and poorly predicted! wassat
    4. gas
      gas April 5 2013 14: 47 New
      +2
      A professor in the Russian Federation is the academic title of a scientific and pedagogical worker at a higher educational institution (professor in a department) or an employee of a scientific institution (professor in a specialty). What opus? Kondratyev’s waves are not his invention, he only voiced what economists already knew.
      Kondratiev's cycles (K-cycles or K-waves) are periodic cycles of the modern world economy lasting 40-60 years.

      There is a definite connection between the long cycles of Kondratiev and the medium-term cycles of Juglar. Such a connection was noticed by Kondratiev himself. Currently, the view is expressed that the relative correctness of the alternation of the upward and downward phases of the Kondratieff waves (each phase is 20-30 years old) is determined by the nature of the group of nearby medium-term cycles. During the upward phase of the Kondratieff wave, the rapid expansion of the economy inevitably leads society to the need for change. But the possibilities for changing society lag behind the demands of the economy, so development moves into a bearish B-phase, during which crisis-depressive phenomena and difficulties make it necessary to rebuild economic and other relations.
      1. GELEZNII_KAPUT
        GELEZNII_KAPUT April 5 2013 20: 02 New
        0
        Why 20-30, and not 25 for example? What is the reason for this? With the deviation of the orbit of the Moon, Earth, Galaxy, activity of the Sun? Or maybe with the predictions of Wang? Oh yes, on the statistics of 100-150 years, is not enough for such things? hi
  3. bulvas
    bulvas April 5 2013 10: 34 New
    +2
    arms manufacturers will always manage politics, there’s no getting around it ...
    1. zart_arn
      zart_arn April 5 2013 17: 52 New
      0
      Arms manufacturers have been far removed from political influence around the world. For this, the Soviet people had to suffer, unfortunately, only the Soviet people.
  4. Volkh
    Volkh April 5 2013 10: 43 New
    +5
    It’s good to fuck all these wars.
  5. Committee
    Committee April 5 2013 11: 53 New
    0
    This MEGAbred is not something offensive to read, but sad from what they are doing at Moscow State University. Although there is little hope that this is still not Moscow State University, but some kind of “fondik” at Moscow State University.
    Western historians do not share World War I and World War II, what was a rehearsal of a meat grinder is called the "first" world war. The cardinal destruction of the white population itself is the "second." And it’s really sad to hear that these wars were dictated by the economy .... Everyone knows who stood and stands behind the world wars, if the Moscow State University does not know this (or does not want to know?) ...
    1. gas
      gas April 5 2013 14: 54 New
      0
      It would not be better to write comments on this site)))
  6. Ustas
    Ustas April 5 2013 12: 07 New
    -1
    Member of the Academy of Military Sciences, professor of Moscow State University Sergei Malkov predicted ...

    If this person is engaged in such nonsense, then he is the same professor as I am Queen Victoria ...
  7. A. Yaga
    A. Yaga April 5 2013 12: 29 New
    0
    I did not understand the author
  8. Zeus
    Zeus April 5 2013 12: 32 New
    0
    The first two world wars were arranged to destroy European technological zones in favor of the American technological zone. After the Second World War, two technological zones remained, American and Soviet. The Soviet was exterminated and only the American remained, to the whole world. The dream of globalists. Now it is collapsing, and for what and who will arrange the third world?
  9. lubin
    lubin April 5 2013 12: 50 New
    +6
    [center] [/ center]
  10. predator.3
    predator.3 April 5 2013 13: 17 New
    +7
    If you look at the history of Russia, it turns out that in the first quarter of every century, Russia waged a war, or even several wars! It is not necessary to be some kind of oracle, especially since the war has blazed for a long time on the distant and near steps of Russia, it would be better if he predicted when the Americans bend! wassat
  11. 120352
    120352 April 5 2013 13: 22 New
    +1
    I'm afraid we have no more than 2 - 3 years. Militants = migrant workers have already been sent to Russia and are waiting in the wings. The case in Syria will end - it will begin with us in the form of a "Night of Long Knives".
    1. Volkh
      Volkh April 5 2013 19: 55 New
      +2
      Quote: 120352

      I'm afraid we have no more than 2 - 3 years. Militants = migrant workers have already been sent to Russia and are waiting in the wings. The case in Syria will end - it will begin with us in the form of a "Night of Long Knives".

      Do you really think that migrant workers will be on the dark side? Nothing of the kind, they are citizens of the CIS, and they are closer to Russians than Americans or Europeans, why should you call them that? They don’t come here to feed their family back home . In a word, there will be a little more allies. Cotton for bandages and cotton can be passed.
  12. Egen
    Egen April 5 2013 13: 24 New
    0
    Yes, why, in general, it would be interesting to understand the intricacies of the minds of academics, only I can not find the whole report on the Internet, has anyone met?
    1. gas
      gas April 5 2013 14: 58 New
      +2
      Wikipedia has about Kondratyev’s cycles. The article has links to the authors. You did the right thing that you did not become like "wise men" which the professor’s words immediately called delirium, so illiterate people react to an unfamiliar ...
  13. Karabin
    Karabin April 5 2013 13: 25 New
    +1
    War is inevitable. The history of mankind is the history of wars. Another question is when this will happen and how it will flow. There is no shortage of predictors.
  14. svp67
    svp67 April 5 2013 13: 30 New
    +2
    Quote: Karabin
    War is inevitable



    Yes, she’s already coming, just by other means ...
  15. Asgard
    Asgard April 5 2013 14: 05 New
    +1
    Чthen the guy greatly delayed the obvious .... The level of the professor is somehow not very .....
    Well, firstly, the war is already underway (they just don’t notice it)) and it is World ...
    It began with the centers of ancient civilizations ...Carthage, Egypt, Greece, Syria, next Iran ........etc
    China has already been pumped up with industry and money, and no one was surprised that whole industry Europe and America went there(except for one Person)))) remember Hitler-when, by a wave of the Magic Wand, there were also means to wage WAR and burn Jews))))
    By the way Not bad He spent OLYMPIAD(even shot on video))) do not draw any parallels ?????
    Instead of Astro-Hungary there is Korea, stretch itself, so to speak, before the capture BIG SPACES ...........in the north.
    By the way, reserves have already been created, from metals, energy, cheap tanks and aircraft ......
    Medvedev allowed the "brotherly people of China" to fly on their planes to the territory of Russia ........ I don’t remember the number of the government decree)) by the way, before the war Asa Luftwaffe even landed at our airfields in Belarus .... brotherly German people)))

    Your affairs are strange, god Yahweh (at least I would come up with a new scenario))))))))))
  16. nickname 1 and 2
    nickname 1 and 2 April 5 2013 14: 22 New
    0
    Maybe this is the professor from the house where Napoleon, Cicero, Zeus live?

    And the moon can fall to the ground ....
    1. gas
      gas April 5 2013 15: 03 New
      0
      Many researchers associate the change of waves with technological patterns. Breakthrough technologies open up opportunities for expanding production and form new sectors of the economy, forming a new technological structure. In addition, Kondratieff waves are one of the most important forms of implementation of industrial production principles [6].

      The composite system of Kondratieff waves and their corresponding technological structures is as follows:

      1st cycle - textile factories, industrial use of coal.
      2nd cycle - coal mining and ferrous metallurgy, railway construction, steam engine.
      3rd cycle - heavy engineering, electric power, inorganic chemistry, steel and electric motor production.
      4th cycle - the production of cars and other machines, the chemical industry, oil refining and internal combustion engines, mass production.
      5th cycle - the development of electronics, robotics, computing, laser and telecommunications technology.
      6th cycle - possibly NBIC-convergence en (convergence of nano-, bio-, information and cognitive technologies) [7]. After the 2030s (according to other sources, the 2050s), the onset of technological singularity is possible, which is currently not amenable to analysis and forecasting. If this hypothesis is true, then Kondratiev’s cycles may break off closer to 2030.
  17. Hius-124
    Hius-124 April 5 2013 14: 31 New
    +2
    The author was late with forecasts, this is more likely not a forecast, but a statement of fact. hi
  18. Thunderbolt
    Thunderbolt April 5 2013 14: 39 New
    0
    Damn nice to know the ability at the level of a professor at Moscow State University fellow))) I, too, am also sure that the world-phenomenon is unstable and fraught with cataclysms and shocks, and indeed human nature is essentially predatory and the world periodically “shakes up” from surges of this energy. You can dig even further and realize that civilization is its current stage of development negatively affects the nature of man. The development of medicine (the lack of natural selection), the use of antibiotics and modified food, harmful ecology and damage from technological disasters destroy the human genome. Therefore, survive the apocalypse, and then survivors get lost in tribes, arm themselves with clubs and with digging sticks it will be more beneficial for the future than slowly and quietly degrading into our “beautiful” age of information technology. I’m somehow more used to stand firmly on the earth and rejoice at every sunrise than to turn into a single humanity in the future transformed into a thinking cloud of plasma. It is absurd, of course, but since we have to drink the bitter honey of war in the 21st century, then we must take from this maxim It’s very useful .-- Vasnetsov V.M. “Warriors of the Apocalypse” 1887. Oil on canvas.
  19. engineer74
    engineer74 April 5 2013 15: 06 New
    +2
    "Sixth technological order" after the 3rd world? Are these stol stone axes? smile Nostradamus is still ... And then the "sixth technological order" was invented in the West for a long time, in 1974, they learned how to make money from the air.
  20. VadimSt
    VadimSt April 5 2013 17: 16 New
    0
    The fact that the world is on the verge of war, and this trend is intensifying, does not speak only lazy.
    I don’t know what works for the Russian Defense Ministry and the State Duma the walls of this public academy have released, but I haven’t found anything else in the projects, except for the textbooks of life history for the 5-11 class.
  21. gland
    gland April 5 2013 18: 04 New
    0
    A war can begin anywhere ... now tensions in each region can only drop a spark, but what if North Korea does not bluff? State debt is high! you need to somehow get out of the situation ... then provocations for drawing other states in, just wait ... This is war! under this brand, it is possible to disarm other states ...
  22. Bezarius
    Bezarius April 5 2013 20: 22 New
    0
    There will be no 3 World War. Only a lot of local wars.
  23. savastyanov
    savastyanov April 5 2013 20: 25 New
    0
    Quite probable forecast
  24. horoh
    horoh April 5 2013 21: 04 New
    0
    In principle, the professor is right, as a mathematician. Musin also predicts, he is a professor of economics, an analyst. Here the problem is different: everyone sees the situation from their position, and no one can accurately predict. Science however.