You talked about the spread of American Middle East policy. What is happening now?
- Today, the United States abandons the old logic in the Middle East. Previously, the region was considered by them as a reservoir of petroleum products. Such was the Carter doctrine, in accordance with which the US Central Command was created and troops deployed in large numbers. At that time, America wanted to be sure that it would have free access to oil products in the region. Now the Americans are convinced that they have achieved energy independence, and consequently, there is no longer any need to contain so many military in the Middle East; on the contrary, it is time to make a smooth turn and redeploy troops from Europe and the Middle East to the Far East in order to prepare for a confrontation with China.
In addition, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Americans were not just close, and indeed the suffocating embrace of Israel. Of course, no one is going to throw Israel, but the intention is to distance themselves from it, to not be forced to conduct a policy, which is dictated by Tel Aviv.
What's the role for Russia? What do you think she should do and what pitfalls we can get there?
- After the collapse of the USSR, Russia was cut off from the Middle East, and now it is extremely important for it to establish itself at least somehow. There are huge deposits of cheap natural gas in this region, so Russia, which has ambitions to control the global gas market, should be present there. The United States is going to make a “gift” of Russia, opening the way to the Middle East for it, and thus divert it from rapprochement with China.
The Americans are well aware that if Russia returns to the Middle East, it will give them the opportunity to move away from Israel. A million Israelis come from the United States, but the second million comes from the former Soviet Union, so the Russian presence in the region will guarantee peace and stability, with the result that the United States will be able to spend significantly less money to ensure Israel’s security.
But the Americans, of course, are not philanthropists coli and allowed to return, it is not just so, and all of this can, of course, turn into a trap. Since the days of Carter and Brzezinski in the United States was a powerful anti-Russian coalition of Western states and Islamic movements. We all watched the activities of the coalition in Afghanistan, the Balkans and Chechnya. It is possible to re-use this coalition to draw Russia into another conflict.
However, there is another aspect. Coalition, push terrorism practically everywhere and stringing up permanent victory over Russia, is now experiencing serious difficulties and slowly falling apart, because in Syria it was defeated. And now the big question is whether this coalition will survive, or the arrival of Russia in the region finally finish it.
The most interesting thing is that Russia has allies within the American system. It is possible to interpret the American military strategy in different ways, but many representatives of the establishment are convinced that if America is facing a confrontation with China, it cannot even afford conflict relations with Russia. According to John Brennan, the new head of the CIA, the United States itself must not only dismantle the coalition, but also destroy its physically separate leaders, which they themselves have cultivated. The CIA already has plans to sweep the leaders of the Free Syrian Army, Al-Qaida and the Al-Nusra Front.
That is, there is a field for the transaction?
- Of course. Moscow and Washington have space for bargaining. It is only important to choose the right negotiators, because Washington is very heterogeneous. The administration has always had people who did not want to hear anything about peace with Russia and were ready to go all the way and at any cost. Such was, for example, the position of David Petraeus, who planned the secret war in Syria and was not going to stop it. Hillary Clinton, too, stood her ground. She represented the pro-Israel lobby and demanded the defeat of Syria.
We must understand that part of the military establishment, in principle, can not imagine an existence outside of the conflict. We are talking about the military, who led NATO missile defense system and taxiing. These people are not ready for peaceful relations with Russia.
The aforementioned policy removed from the administration, so confrontation over Russia moved to Congress, where also there are various anti-Russian groups. Some defend the interests of Israel, no matter the cost to the United States, others are directly related to Dick Cheney and those who worked on the country's energy security. Representatives of large energy corporations are convinced that it is necessary to finish the job and take Syria, for they have long been divided between all its minerals.
Which group will prevail depends on the economic context. Because of the crisis in the country, Obama is trying to find a new equilibrium point in the world. He perfectly understands that the status of the world's sole and sole superpower is too expensive for the United States. During the Cold War, when the world was divided, everything was simpler, costs were much lower, the United States inexpensively secured a dominant position in the desired part of the world. Therefore, Obama wants to return to the previous type of relations, to achieve a full-fledged treaty with Russia not only in Syria, but throughout the region.
If the plan works, what happens with Iran, Syria and the Gulf monarchies?
- So far the most promising is the idea of joint control of the United States and Russia in the region. To do this, you need to start to make peace in Syria, and retaining Bashar al-Assad in power, because without it no peace in Syria is possible in principle. No matter what his words may be for the last two years, you will have to put up with him, moreover, in your position, because there is simply no other way out. There may be a question about the annexation of part of the territory of Syria. We are talking about the north of the country, the lands that may have to be transferred to Turkey as payment for its participation in the war, because Turkey is necessary for the United States.
And then it will be necessary to resolve the issue with Israel. There is an intention to hold a conference in Moscow on the problems of the region, at which decisions will be taken on the type of the Madrid Peace Conference, and not on the Oslo agreements. That is, the two world powers will once again launch the process of settling the Palestinian question, which will be considered together with the problem of the Golan Heights, occupied by Israel. The new Obama administration has already returned people who participated in the Madrid conference and worked on a peace settlement project for the Middle East problem at the end of Bill Clinton's rule, when talks were held in the US and Geneva with Hafez al-Assad on the eve of his death.
But why should we link the issue of the Golan Heights with the Palestinian issue? After all, the issue of the Golan Heights was virtually decided (the talks mediated by Turkey, which it is, and were foiled). The Palestinian issue is so complicated that it is unclear why they are considered together?
- Madeleine Albright was well aware that it was impossible to make peace in stages, although agreements were reached with Egypt and Jordan. The Syrian people will never accept peace without a solution to the Palestinian issue, especially to the detriment of the Palestinians. And this is an ideological question, not related to the position of the state. At the same time, it is very difficult to make peace with the Palestinians, because they are too fragmented, new groups are constantly being formed, which oppose the agreements already reached. There is only one force in the entire region that can force the Palestinians to abide by their own decisions - this is Syria. Therefore, the problem of the Golan Heights and should be addressed simultaneously with the Palestinian issue.
But Hamas has defected to Qatar! Syria can now impose Hamas?
“Hamas did not go over to the side of Qatar, but Qatar supports individual Hamas figures.” Hamas is divided into groups, and Qatar simply bought the political elite of Hamas, which is part of the Muslim Brotherhood. This process has indeed already gone far, so Khaled Mishal, who had been hiding in Damascus for many years, relocated to Qatar before returning to Cairo after the elections of Mursi. But as for the military wing of Hamas, it receives weapons from Iran and is fully oriented towards it.
Two months ago, battles were fought in Syria around the Palestinian Yarmuk camp. There were 180 thousand Palestinians. And when the al-Qaeda fighters came to seize the camp, they were accompanied, on the one hand, by the leaders of HAMA S, and on the other - by the officers of the Mossad. They went there all together, they were given tough resistance, but the officers of the Mossad had a detailed camp plan, which gave the attackers the opportunity to find and destroy those Hamas leaders who were at that time in the camp and did not share the policies of the attackers.
Attack eventually petered out, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, who defended the camp, won a victory, but battles were bloody and Palestinians fought with each other, because the defense kept the people of George Habash, who died not long ago, a Palestinian Marxist camp defended by members of his party.
As for the future of Palestine, Washington is planning to create a federation, which will include the Palestinian territories and Jordan, and power will be transferred to all the same "Muslim Brotherhood" who already rule in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Morocco. This will make it possible to state that the Palestinians have their own state and there is no way back.
We must understand that the recognition by the Assembly of the UN special status of Palestine as a state not recognized, but recognized as an observer, was the first step towards the creation of such a Jordanian-Palestinian federation. For, in fact, it means that since the Palestinians already have a state, if still not recognized, they do not have a right to a different home. That is the flip side of that statement is a tacit assertion that Palestinians can no longer lay claim to the land occupied by Israel.
As part of this logic, all the occupied territories will remain with Israel, and the Jordan-Palestinian Federation will include only a small piece of Palestinian land. If you look back, we will see what else the British wanted to make a Palestinian state out of Jordan, they were even going to move the Palestinians there by force. Subsequently, this happened; only in Israel was the group of particularly hard-nosed people delayed, who sooner or later will be deprived of their nationality and squeezed out of the country. There is also an intention to dissolve all other Palestinians by depriving them of their nationality. That is to make Lebanese Palestinians from Lebanon, Syrians - Palestinians from Syria, Egyptians - living in Egypt and Jordanians who live in Jordan.
This plan can work, because it gives peace to the people who have been living in a state of permanent war. But it can not last forever, because this decision is too unfair and will be realized as unacceptable.
And what will happen to the Gulf?
- Now everyone is preparing for the rapid collapse of Saudi Arabia. The king is seriously ill and is no longer able to rule the country. He no longer even understands that he is the head of state. The clan of the now ruling Saudis is the most reactionary of all the branches of the ruling family. Of course, the Saudis will try to seize power after the death of King Abdullah, although it will be illegitimate. At the same time, the entire population of the country, divided into groups, has long been ready for an open uprising and is waiting only for the death of the king - in a word, the continuity of power will be impeded.
During the time of Roosevelt and King Ibn Saud, the United States guaranteed the support of the Saudis dynasty in exchange for Gulf oil. But now the situation has changed dramatically - the Americans are able to provide themselves with petroleum products. And to support the Saudis means to further discredit themselves, because these people hate everything.
Therefore, the old Pentagon’s plan, called "The withdrawal of the Saudis from Arabia." According to this draft, Saudi Arabia is supposed to be divided into five parts, three of which will become independent states, and two will become part of neighboring states. Apparently, all this will happen automatically as soon as the king dies. That is, the country will disintegrate itself.
As for Qatar, everything is much more complicated there. After all, Qatar is not a completely state, it is rather an enterprise, and not an autonomous one. Qatar is a “daughter” of a large concern - BG Group. That is, it is the governing body of the British oil company, in whose territory the largest American military base is located.
Qatar is engaged in all sorts of illegal operations. In essence, he is what “Turtle Island” was for pirates. That is, this is a territory with signs of the state, which allows the British to wrap large amounts of cash, buy everything they need, and pay for, among other things, international terrorism in Syria or in the Caucasus.
Qatar itself just will not die, although there will also be a problem with the inheritance of power. The current Emir of Qatar is not legitimate, he overthrew his father, so the other branch of the family will claim the throne after his death. In any case, the British and the Americans never let go of this much-needed state.
Another nuance. There are very close ties between the French ruling class and Qatar. While serving as President Nicolas Sarkozy, the Emir of Qatar made him different expensive gifts. For example, in Paris, a private jet was parked Emir, where the president's wife could at any time go shopping in another country.
Then the emir began buying in the heart of Paris luxury mansions, is an architectural monument and needed permission for home remodeling buildings. He successfully corrupted the entire French elite, as members of the administration and politicians of right and left. During the last presidential election openly sponsored by the Emir of both candidates, but a bet made on Olanda. Moreover, Laurent Fabius, former French Prime Minister, personally went to Qatar for money. So now the French rulers in an obvious debt to the Emir of Qatar.
When Sarkozy was still president, he signed a tax treaty with Qatar, which has a terrific point, according to him members of the ruling family of Qatar shall be exempt from tax if transact or invest in France. In exchange, the Emir proposed Nicolas Sarkozy to lead a private fund for Qatari investment funds in Europe.
Now that Qatar has bought the French elite, he is about to launch the French version of Al-Jazeera channel. The plan has existed for a long time, but it was not allowed to go, but now the road is open. The channel will start broadcasting modestly so as not to annoy anyone, and then there will be a sharp turn, as was the case with the Arabic version of Al-Jazeera. That is, the media resource will work to ensure the Wahhabi of the Muslim population of France and thereby create an insoluble problem for French society. And the customers are, of course, the British.
And what will happen to Jerusalem?
- Jerusalem, unlike everything else, has a symbolic value. Of course, the city should be the capital of both Palestinians and Israelis, which was once the goal, but everyone understands that this is absolutely impossible. Obviously, and the other - the current owners of the city, occupying Palestine, are not ready to give the shrine for free use to representatives of different faiths, as required. Therefore, the conflict around Jerusalem will not fade, no matter how the situation is resolved with everything else. And as far as I know, in the plans relating to the Jordan-Palestinian autonomy, there is no point about giving the Palestinians even partial control over East Jerusalem.
And Turkey is not nadorvetsya in their superhuman efforts?
“Since Turkey is a member of NATO, the Americans will support it by all means.” But the country plunged into the Syrian conflict so deeply, and so ugly that the government turned out to be rejected by the population.
Turkey immediately tried to occupy northern Syria. When hostilities first began, in news The reports constantly said that the Free Syrian Army was entrenched in a particular border city, that is, it was obvious that the offensive was coming from outside, and not developing inside the country. When the mercenaries entered Syrian territory, they received some support in the border rural areas inhabited by the Turks. It had nothing to do with politics or internal problems of the country - it was just ethnic affinity that worked.
Then, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan appointed a manager, whose task was to control Syrian refugees in Turkey. In fact, this person was engaged in humanitarian assistance in Syria. And he was named "governor", that is, Erdogan used the term used by the Sultan when he appointed his people to control the occupied lands of Syria. In the refugee camps, which are recognized by the international community and are located on the territory of Turkey, there are no refugees. These are military camps, from where raids are made to the territory of Syria. Therefore, neither diplomats, nor the press, nor other officials who submitted requests, do not give permission to visit these camps.
Now Turkey understands that the United States and Russia are about to announce the end of the game, so for several weeks now she has become engaged in outright looting in the northern regions of Syria. Brigade trucks arrive there that take out everything that can be carried out - for example, they dismantle machines and take out whole factories.
There are teams that specialize in works of art and archaeological plunder centers. In Antioch, even opened a huge antiques market, where you can openly buy items that appear in the catalogs as a national treasure of mankind. There is also a semi-legal Turkish-French company, based in Paris, where you can place an order for one or the other antiques. The order will be handed over to the Turkish army and she pack everything you need. The order is then delivered to Antioch, and from there flown to Paris to the customer.
Hopefully, we will never be able to make sure that this company is closely linked to the largest French antique gallery Fabius Freres, directly related to the aforementioned Laurent Fabius.
And whether we need all this climb? And if you climb, under what conditions?
“Russia doesn’t have to ask whether or not to get into the Syrian conflict, since it was planned against it,” the alliance of Western countries with Islamist groups was originally intended to weaken Russia.
Therefore, Russia has two paths. She can let Syria die, after which Qatar and Saudi Arabia will flood this country with Caucasian mercenaries, who will be sent from there to Russia. There is a second option - to deploy peacekeeping troops in Syria under the UN auspices to help the Syrians defeat international terrorism.
About Caucasian mercenaries, this is not speculation. The most accurate and detailed information on Syria can be found at «Kavkaz-tsentr», that is the official resource of Chechen militants. It is known that the Chechen rebels are actively fighting in Syria and there at the hands of Syrian and not the Russian military killed several Chechen field commanders. So the question can be resolved only through cooperation between the Russian army and the army of Syria.
Russia and Syria share many basic values. Only these two countries have been able to ensure the peaceful coexistence of people of different cultures and faiths. Once they got it, and only managed to untie it from the outside war.
If the Russian army were present in the combat zone, it would help the Syrian military to end the militants. After all, the Syrians do not need anything special, the situation is just asymmetric: the Syrian army is numerous and well armed, but it seems that it plays cat and mouse with a fragmented, mobile adversary who has full information from satellites about all the movements of the Syrian military, which creates a problem. The Russian army could help with information, it would equalize the conditions and lead to the rapid defeat of the militants. It is important that the Russian military, peacekeeping forces, which would act within the framework of the UN mandate, do not take any part in the hostilities against jihadists. Their contribution should consist only in the isolation of the territories, which would enable the Syrians to more effectively clean the area after the area.