Russia must "withdraw part of nuclear weapons from the state of readiness"
3 On April, a group of experts from several countries presented its report “Building Mutual Security in the Euro-Atlantic Region” (Building Mutual Security in the Euro-Atlantic Region). Three dozen politicians and military men analyzed the current state of the strategic nuclear forces (SNF) of the leading countries of the world and drew conclusions about their prospects. The expert group was headed by former British Defense Minister D. Brown, Russian ex-foreign minister I. Ivanov, German diplomat V. Ischinger, and American politician S. Nann.
First of all, the report notes the fact that there are many different problems in the world, primarily economic ones, but at the same time, issues that arose several decades ago remain on the agenda. Nuclear weapon in the current state and with the current trends of its development it costs the countries too much. So, in the coming years, the United States is going to spend more than 400 billions of dollars on the creation of new and improvement of old nuclear weapons; in the Russian budget, the same targets provide for up to 1,9 trillion rubles, and the UK will spend 25 billion pounds to replace only missiles for submarines. It is quite obvious that it is worth looking for ways to reduce these costs without compromising the defense capacity of countries.
The authors of the report state that, despite all the geopolitical processes of recent years, the overall vector of development of the strategic nuclear forces of the leading countries has remained the same and has not undergone major changes. In such circumstances, the strategy of guaranteed mutual destruction may contradict the necessary political partnership and a number of other processes. Experts believe the cause of current problems is a lack of trust between countries. Speaking of mutually beneficial cooperation, they continue to develop weapons, including nuclear ones, which, accordingly, affect international relations. Now it is possible to solve some of the existing problems with the help of the method proposed by experts. Its main idea is to create and maintain a dialogue process at the highest level, whose task will be to solve all the problems that arise.
Disclosing the proposed idea, the experts announced a list of six points, the observance of which will help facilitate negotiations and further reduction of nuclear arsenals. First of all, it is necessary to adjust the negotiation process so that it gives real results and helps to come to a common opinion without prejudice to the interests of one of the parties. The second item in the list is government support. For successful negotiation, the delegation must have the confidence of the government of the country. Otherwise, all consultations and discussions may be in vain. The third sentence implies the development of certain general principles, understanding of which will help to quickly agree on specific steps. For example, such a principle could be a revision of current concepts of ensuring state security in the light of recent innovations in the defense field or abandoning the idea of nuclear weapons as the main instrument for deterring a likely adversary.
The fourth sentence is interesting in that it implies that it is not necessary to conclude solid international agreements. During the dialogue, general principles of further cooperation can be developed. Already on their basis, if necessary, it is possible to create new contracts. The fifth point of the proposed program concerns actions for several years ahead. Negotiations, agreements, etc. can gradually increase trust between countries and produce certain consequences, with the help of which it will be easier to carry out the next steps. In this way, in the coming 15 years, significant success will be achieved. Finally, a group of experts does not exclude the possibility of creating a special discussion body on a Euro-Atlantic scale. Such a forum can facilitate the negotiation process and optimize some diplomatic issues.
Experts see a certain risk in the current situation with strategic nuclear forces. The architecture of the SNF is such that the probability of an erroneous start of a nuclear war with the corresponding consequences remains. The only way to protect the world from such a development is the withdrawal of nuclear weapons from a state of constant readiness for use. However, with the existing views on his tasks, this does not look realistic. Nevertheless, the group of experts believes that it is precisely the refusal of the continued operational readiness of the SNF to help avoid catastrophic consequences, since the countries will have additional time to analyze the situation before the missile launch response.
As for tactical nuclear weapons (TNW), it also represents a danger, but of a different nature. Comparative simplicity and ease of use make such ammunition interesting for terrorist organizations. At the same time, the number of TNW in recent years has decreased slightly. The geopolitical processes in Europe do not allow countries to dispose of a large amount of such ammunition, which takes the form of a sustainable trend, vaguely reminiscent of the classic arms race. It also requires agreement between several countries, which will help to initiate a full-scale reduction of tactical nuclear weapons and, as a result, reduce the corresponding risks.
The report notes that the successful course of nuclear disarmament of the United States and Russia in the very near future can have a beneficial effect on a number of international issues. First of all, these countries will secure themselves. Secondly, in this case, we should expect an improvement in the situation in the Euro-Atlantic region. Finally, third countries that have recently acquired nuclear weapons or are preparing for this may abandon their research and design programs due to the lack of a corresponding threat from leading countries. To this end, the countries of the Euro-Atlantic region are invited to do their utmost to promote the processes of nuclear disarmament and to actively participate in it.
Continuing to offer their solutions to the problem, an international group of experts displays a regular list of measures designed to solve the problem of nuclear weapons in the Euro-Atlantic region. The proposed steps are as follows:
1. Russia and the United States undertake to withdraw part of the strategic nuclear forces from a state of readiness for the immediate use of weapons. The withdrawal conditions are proposed to be coordinated with the requirements of the START III contract;
2. Countries need to agree on some measures to build confidence in each other. For example, the United States could unilaterally agree to set aside patrol routes of submarines with strategic missiles at a certain distance from Russian territory;
3. Nuclear powers should create an agreed strategy for the development of their strategic nuclear forces. In other words, it is necessary to draw up a “road map”, according to which the missiles will be withdrawn from the state of readiness for an early launch. It is also necessary to discuss a number of other important issues relating to the course of disarmament;
4. Participation in negotiations of other countries of the Euro-Atlantic region possessing nuclear weapons. The United Kingdom and France may also join the negotiations and, possibly, enter into one of the treaties;
5. Ensure the transparency of their strategic nuclear forces for treaty partners. So, the United States or Russia could clarify the data provided earlier, as well as make this information more detailed. For example, it is possible to disclose information on the number of tactical weapons, their types and the distribution of units of the armed forces;
6. Together, to achieve a reduction in the number of tactical nuclear charges. Currently, a large number of such weapons is located in Europe, which accordingly affects the situation in the region. The removal and / or destruction of tactical ammunition will help reduce the threat of their use, as well as reduce the role of nuclear weapons in the policies of European states;
7. Create a plan for the next five years, according to which there will be a reduction in stocks of tactical nuclear weapons. First of all, it should concern the American stocks in Europe. However, the mutual reduction of the number of tactical nuclear weapons is implied.
Summing up, the group of experts has compiled an approximate chronology of the required actions, which, in its opinion, will lead to a noticeable reduction of nuclear weapons of all classes, as well as significantly reduce the possible risks. According to her, over the next five years, the nuclear powers should commit themselves to withdraw all strategic nuclear forces from a state of constant combat readiness. This is given a period of 10-15 years. At the same time, it is necessary to increase the degree of trust in each other. Also over the next five years, the United States must withdraw from European countries half of the tactical nuclear weapons stationed there. Russia should prepare for retaliatory measures against tactical nuclear weapons.
Over the next ten years, leading countries should continue to reduce the means of delivery on permanent duty, as well as monitor the status of foreign strategic nuclear forces. By the end of this period, France and the United Kingdom should be invited to the existing agreements and agree with them on the adoption of conditions regarding the withdrawal of all nuclear weapons from the state of permanent combat readiness.
It must be admitted that the views of the international group of experts in a number of issues, at least, do not agree with current geopolitical trends. In this regard, one should not expect such a development of events in which the leading countries of the Euro-Atlantic region will immediately begin to follow the instructions of the experts. On the contrary, some ways of solving current problems may cause misunderstanding or rejection by the military-political leadership of some countries. For example, the idea of gradual removal of missiles from permanent duty and constant combat readiness openly contradicts the concept of their use adopted in all nuclear powers. It is now believed that the retaliation should follow within a few minutes after the attack was detected. The implementation of the experts' proposal, in turn, will not allow for timely response measures. Moreover, under certain circumstances, a successful first strike by an adversary may deprive a country that has fired missiles from permanent duty to respond.
It is worth noting that the reduction of the arsenals of the strategic nuclear forces in accordance with the START-III agreement is already underway. At the same time, the United States is ahead of Russia in the number of available carriers and combat units. According to recently published data, 792 ballistic missiles and also strategic bombers armed with nuclear warheads are currently on duty in the United States. The total number of warheads on these missiles is 1654. In Russia, in turn, only 492 of a carrier with 1480 combat units is deployed. Under the terms of the START III treaty, in the near future, countries should bring the number of deployed carriers to 700, and combat units to 1550 units.
As for tactical nuclear weapons, control over them now seems extremely difficult, if not impossible. In addition, most countries may not agree with such a proposal. The fact is that for the full tracking of tactical ammunition you will need to create some kind of special international organization that will check the depots and units. Since nuclear weapons are supposed to be used by the same units of military equipment as conventional shells, missiles, etc., this will result in the need to monitor all bases of the ground forces, air force and naval forces fleet. No country would do such a thing, since such actions - with little diplomatic effect - most directly hit the army's defense capabilities.
Nevertheless, it must be admitted that a number of proposals of the expert group are of interest and have good prospects. European countries possessing nuclear weapons really need to enter into international treaties, and not watch from the outside as the US and Russia negotiate and sign agreements. In this case, all nuclear powers will be in approximately equal conditions, and disarmament with a subsequent reduction of risks will go much more efficiently.
Igor KOROTCHENKO, editor-in-chief of the magazine “National Defense” comments on:
Text of the report:
http://www.nti.org/media/pdfs/BMS_Long_Report_FINAL_RU.pdf
First of all, the report notes the fact that there are many different problems in the world, primarily economic ones, but at the same time, issues that arose several decades ago remain on the agenda. Nuclear weapon in the current state and with the current trends of its development it costs the countries too much. So, in the coming years, the United States is going to spend more than 400 billions of dollars on the creation of new and improvement of old nuclear weapons; in the Russian budget, the same targets provide for up to 1,9 trillion rubles, and the UK will spend 25 billion pounds to replace only missiles for submarines. It is quite obvious that it is worth looking for ways to reduce these costs without compromising the defense capacity of countries.
The authors of the report state that, despite all the geopolitical processes of recent years, the overall vector of development of the strategic nuclear forces of the leading countries has remained the same and has not undergone major changes. In such circumstances, the strategy of guaranteed mutual destruction may contradict the necessary political partnership and a number of other processes. Experts believe the cause of current problems is a lack of trust between countries. Speaking of mutually beneficial cooperation, they continue to develop weapons, including nuclear ones, which, accordingly, affect international relations. Now it is possible to solve some of the existing problems with the help of the method proposed by experts. Its main idea is to create and maintain a dialogue process at the highest level, whose task will be to solve all the problems that arise.
Disclosing the proposed idea, the experts announced a list of six points, the observance of which will help facilitate negotiations and further reduction of nuclear arsenals. First of all, it is necessary to adjust the negotiation process so that it gives real results and helps to come to a common opinion without prejudice to the interests of one of the parties. The second item in the list is government support. For successful negotiation, the delegation must have the confidence of the government of the country. Otherwise, all consultations and discussions may be in vain. The third sentence implies the development of certain general principles, understanding of which will help to quickly agree on specific steps. For example, such a principle could be a revision of current concepts of ensuring state security in the light of recent innovations in the defense field or abandoning the idea of nuclear weapons as the main instrument for deterring a likely adversary.
The fourth sentence is interesting in that it implies that it is not necessary to conclude solid international agreements. During the dialogue, general principles of further cooperation can be developed. Already on their basis, if necessary, it is possible to create new contracts. The fifth point of the proposed program concerns actions for several years ahead. Negotiations, agreements, etc. can gradually increase trust between countries and produce certain consequences, with the help of which it will be easier to carry out the next steps. In this way, in the coming 15 years, significant success will be achieved. Finally, a group of experts does not exclude the possibility of creating a special discussion body on a Euro-Atlantic scale. Such a forum can facilitate the negotiation process and optimize some diplomatic issues.
Experts see a certain risk in the current situation with strategic nuclear forces. The architecture of the SNF is such that the probability of an erroneous start of a nuclear war with the corresponding consequences remains. The only way to protect the world from such a development is the withdrawal of nuclear weapons from a state of constant readiness for use. However, with the existing views on his tasks, this does not look realistic. Nevertheless, the group of experts believes that it is precisely the refusal of the continued operational readiness of the SNF to help avoid catastrophic consequences, since the countries will have additional time to analyze the situation before the missile launch response.
As for tactical nuclear weapons (TNW), it also represents a danger, but of a different nature. Comparative simplicity and ease of use make such ammunition interesting for terrorist organizations. At the same time, the number of TNW in recent years has decreased slightly. The geopolitical processes in Europe do not allow countries to dispose of a large amount of such ammunition, which takes the form of a sustainable trend, vaguely reminiscent of the classic arms race. It also requires agreement between several countries, which will help to initiate a full-scale reduction of tactical nuclear weapons and, as a result, reduce the corresponding risks.
The report notes that the successful course of nuclear disarmament of the United States and Russia in the very near future can have a beneficial effect on a number of international issues. First of all, these countries will secure themselves. Secondly, in this case, we should expect an improvement in the situation in the Euro-Atlantic region. Finally, third countries that have recently acquired nuclear weapons or are preparing for this may abandon their research and design programs due to the lack of a corresponding threat from leading countries. To this end, the countries of the Euro-Atlantic region are invited to do their utmost to promote the processes of nuclear disarmament and to actively participate in it.
Continuing to offer their solutions to the problem, an international group of experts displays a regular list of measures designed to solve the problem of nuclear weapons in the Euro-Atlantic region. The proposed steps are as follows:
1. Russia and the United States undertake to withdraw part of the strategic nuclear forces from a state of readiness for the immediate use of weapons. The withdrawal conditions are proposed to be coordinated with the requirements of the START III contract;
2. Countries need to agree on some measures to build confidence in each other. For example, the United States could unilaterally agree to set aside patrol routes of submarines with strategic missiles at a certain distance from Russian territory;
3. Nuclear powers should create an agreed strategy for the development of their strategic nuclear forces. In other words, it is necessary to draw up a “road map”, according to which the missiles will be withdrawn from the state of readiness for an early launch. It is also necessary to discuss a number of other important issues relating to the course of disarmament;
4. Participation in negotiations of other countries of the Euro-Atlantic region possessing nuclear weapons. The United Kingdom and France may also join the negotiations and, possibly, enter into one of the treaties;
5. Ensure the transparency of their strategic nuclear forces for treaty partners. So, the United States or Russia could clarify the data provided earlier, as well as make this information more detailed. For example, it is possible to disclose information on the number of tactical weapons, their types and the distribution of units of the armed forces;
6. Together, to achieve a reduction in the number of tactical nuclear charges. Currently, a large number of such weapons is located in Europe, which accordingly affects the situation in the region. The removal and / or destruction of tactical ammunition will help reduce the threat of their use, as well as reduce the role of nuclear weapons in the policies of European states;
7. Create a plan for the next five years, according to which there will be a reduction in stocks of tactical nuclear weapons. First of all, it should concern the American stocks in Europe. However, the mutual reduction of the number of tactical nuclear weapons is implied.
Summing up, the group of experts has compiled an approximate chronology of the required actions, which, in its opinion, will lead to a noticeable reduction of nuclear weapons of all classes, as well as significantly reduce the possible risks. According to her, over the next five years, the nuclear powers should commit themselves to withdraw all strategic nuclear forces from a state of constant combat readiness. This is given a period of 10-15 years. At the same time, it is necessary to increase the degree of trust in each other. Also over the next five years, the United States must withdraw from European countries half of the tactical nuclear weapons stationed there. Russia should prepare for retaliatory measures against tactical nuclear weapons.
Over the next ten years, leading countries should continue to reduce the means of delivery on permanent duty, as well as monitor the status of foreign strategic nuclear forces. By the end of this period, France and the United Kingdom should be invited to the existing agreements and agree with them on the adoption of conditions regarding the withdrawal of all nuclear weapons from the state of permanent combat readiness.
It must be admitted that the views of the international group of experts in a number of issues, at least, do not agree with current geopolitical trends. In this regard, one should not expect such a development of events in which the leading countries of the Euro-Atlantic region will immediately begin to follow the instructions of the experts. On the contrary, some ways of solving current problems may cause misunderstanding or rejection by the military-political leadership of some countries. For example, the idea of gradual removal of missiles from permanent duty and constant combat readiness openly contradicts the concept of their use adopted in all nuclear powers. It is now believed that the retaliation should follow within a few minutes after the attack was detected. The implementation of the experts' proposal, in turn, will not allow for timely response measures. Moreover, under certain circumstances, a successful first strike by an adversary may deprive a country that has fired missiles from permanent duty to respond.
It is worth noting that the reduction of the arsenals of the strategic nuclear forces in accordance with the START-III agreement is already underway. At the same time, the United States is ahead of Russia in the number of available carriers and combat units. According to recently published data, 792 ballistic missiles and also strategic bombers armed with nuclear warheads are currently on duty in the United States. The total number of warheads on these missiles is 1654. In Russia, in turn, only 492 of a carrier with 1480 combat units is deployed. Under the terms of the START III treaty, in the near future, countries should bring the number of deployed carriers to 700, and combat units to 1550 units.
As for tactical nuclear weapons, control over them now seems extremely difficult, if not impossible. In addition, most countries may not agree with such a proposal. The fact is that for the full tracking of tactical ammunition you will need to create some kind of special international organization that will check the depots and units. Since nuclear weapons are supposed to be used by the same units of military equipment as conventional shells, missiles, etc., this will result in the need to monitor all bases of the ground forces, air force and naval forces fleet. No country would do such a thing, since such actions - with little diplomatic effect - most directly hit the army's defense capabilities.
Nevertheless, it must be admitted that a number of proposals of the expert group are of interest and have good prospects. European countries possessing nuclear weapons really need to enter into international treaties, and not watch from the outside as the US and Russia negotiate and sign agreements. In this case, all nuclear powers will be in approximately equal conditions, and disarmament with a subsequent reduction of risks will go much more efficiently.
Igor KOROTCHENKO, editor-in-chief of the magazine “National Defense” comments on:
- The efforts of the US State Department related to Russia's involvement in the negotiation process to reduce nuclear weapons are “reinforced” by various kinds of expert reports. I don’t want to make any analogies, but in this case this thing deserves attention: in terms of making major foreign policy decisions in Russia.
We will continue to take a comprehensive approach to the reduction of nuclear weapons; no expert reports will have a significant impact on the policies of Russian ministries and departments involved in the development of the country's foreign policy.
In practical terms, negotiations on the reduction of tactical nuclear weapons can begin only if all tactical nuclear weapons are completely withdrawn from Europe to the United States. The second condition is the signing of legally binding documents that ensure that the United States refuses to deploy bases of interceptor missiles near Russian territory, so as not to create any threats to the functioning of our strategic nuclear forces in the future.
Any attempts to erode the negotiating positions of Russia for further reductions in nuclear weapons are absolutely unpromising. Since the methods of "soft power" that were used in previous periods by the US administration to induce the Russian military-political leadership to make certain decisions that do not meet Russian national interests, will not work at this stage.
Vladimir Putin, as a strong politician, as a world-class leader, is absolutely independent in making decisions on upholding our national priorities in the field of strategic offensive arms reduction. Therefore, the above tips and recommendations - no more than a concussion of air, with all, perhaps, respect for those people who have subscribed to this document.
We will continue to take a comprehensive approach to the reduction of nuclear weapons; no expert reports will have a significant impact on the policies of Russian ministries and departments involved in the development of the country's foreign policy.
In practical terms, negotiations on the reduction of tactical nuclear weapons can begin only if all tactical nuclear weapons are completely withdrawn from Europe to the United States. The second condition is the signing of legally binding documents that ensure that the United States refuses to deploy bases of interceptor missiles near Russian territory, so as not to create any threats to the functioning of our strategic nuclear forces in the future.
Any attempts to erode the negotiating positions of Russia for further reductions in nuclear weapons are absolutely unpromising. Since the methods of "soft power" that were used in previous periods by the US administration to induce the Russian military-political leadership to make certain decisions that do not meet Russian national interests, will not work at this stage.
Vladimir Putin, as a strong politician, as a world-class leader, is absolutely independent in making decisions on upholding our national priorities in the field of strategic offensive arms reduction. Therefore, the above tips and recommendations - no more than a concussion of air, with all, perhaps, respect for those people who have subscribed to this document.
Text of the report:
http://www.nti.org/media/pdfs/BMS_Long_Report_FINAL_RU.pdf
Information