Iran between War and Peace, or What is Trump Counting on?
Preamble or Unplanned continuation of the Iranian cycle
Frankly, I did not plan to continue the series dedicated to Iran (see the beginning: "Why didn't the US remove Khomeini"). However, D. Trump's threats against Tehran make it relevant to return to the topic of confrontation between the two countries - relevant for Russia as well, because destabilization in the Islamic Republic will directly affect our country and the post-Soviet space as a whole, as well as the Middle East and Central Asia, and even reach Africa, at least the Maghreb.
Accordingly, we will touch upon the topic of the confrontation between the US and Iran from the military and civilian sides. Let's start with the first.
There is no point in writing about Iran's ability to repel strikes by the American-Israeli Air Force. It will not. We are not talking about local, but about massive and prolonged raids, as a result of which, with relatively low losses on the part of the aggressor, the critical infrastructure of the Islamic Republic will be subject to either complete or partial destruction - the uranium enrichment center in Natanz, the Air Force and Navy bases, in particular "Hamadan" and in Bandar Abbas.
Undoubtedly, airstrikes will disrupt the Iranian military command and control system, depriving them of air support or making it ineffective, not because of the destruction of the frontline aviation, and as a result of damage to or the disabling of military airfields. The supply system for the troops will be disrupted, the rear will be partially disorganized, and the mobilization process will either be disrupted or slowed down, especially in large cities.
There is little choice regarding the routes along which airstrikes will be carried out. It is obvious that the aggressors cannot count on the airspace of Turkey and Saudi Arabia. That leaves Syria and Iraq. In order to avoid in-flight refueling, the Israelis will have to use the airfields of these countries.
The Bavar-373 air defense missile system is capable of inflicting limited losses on the enemy, but is unlikely to be fully effective in countering airstrikes.
Of course, the Americans will repeat the Yugoslav scenario, when “aircraft operations,” writes Balkanist A.N. Skvoznikov, “were supported by a naval group consisting of three aircraft carriers, six attack submarines, two cruisers, seven destroyers, and 13 frigates.”
Let me remind you that in 1999, airstrikes were also carried out from the continental United States. Currently, the Pentagon is increasing its military presence in the region, where, according to the assessment of orientalist V. I. Sazhin, two aircraft carrier strike groups have already been deployed and where heavy B-52 and B-2 bombers are being redeployed.
B-2 Spirit is one of the main arguments of the US in the dialogue with Iran
Zagros - Iran's ally
However, despite the undoubted effectiveness of airstrikes, the Americans and Israelis will not be able to achieve complete defeat, including due to the specifics of the organizational and command structure of the Iranian Armed Forces, which, as far as I know, provides for their division into 31 commands.
This system assumes broad independence of commanders and long-term conduct of military operations outside of operational interaction with neighbors.
The theater of operations will also play into the hands of the defenders.
The terrain and climate conditions, starting from the Caspian coast with its humid subtropical climate, transition to mountain ranges with a sharply continental climate, which are replaced by vast deserts with a dry desert and semi-desert climate, which in turn give way to a small number of plains with a number of rivers and swampy areas in the southwest. Such a variety of conditions will affect the scale and nature of military operations, as well as the methods and forms of using various types of armed forces and branches of the troops of the parties. The mountain systems of Iran, going in different directions, are natural obstacles, overcoming which in combat and transport vehicles is possible only through passes, therefore, in this type of terrain, military operations can be conducted on narrow sections of the front, determining the directions of attacks. The consequence of this is the focal nature of military operations, reminiscent of a "patchwork quilt". The conditions that limit the conduct of large-scale operations in the mountains are heavy snowfalls and violent spring floods during the period of snowmelt.
– write military analysts T.A. Ganiev and V.V. Karyakin.Within the framework of such a theater of operations, the widespread use of armored vehicles, which the Iranian command plans to use in the first line of defense, is excluded. Accordingly, the superiority in the performance characteristics of the latest modifications of the Merkava and Abrams over the Zulfikars, if the Iranians avoid oncoming tank border battles in the open terrain located in the southern part of the Iran-Iraq border adjacent to the Persian Gulf will not be decisive.
And if the defenders begin to effectively use tank ambushes, then the invaders' advantage in armored vehicles will be reduced to nothing.
The ground invasion itself can only be carried out from Iraqi territory, where radical Islamist groups have not been completely destroyed and are capable of causing problems for the invaders’ rear communications.
But the main thing is that in any case, even after massive airstrikes, the ground part of the operation will lead to significant losses in the aggressor’s manpower.
For Israel, which has limited human resources, this is unacceptable, just as opening a second front besides Gaza is unacceptable.
The IDF is currently firmly stuck in Gaza
Americans as the Pentagon's Main Enemy
In turn, I believe that the US will also not dare to conduct a ground operation. E. Luttwak wrote about the reasons, though in a different context:
One only has to recall the Americans' immediate withdrawal from Somalia after the loss of 18 soldiers in October 1993 to reveal the unreality of the concept of a great power today. To their glory or to their shame, the Americans could draw any, even larger, conclusions from this event, while retaining the right to a special sensitivity that forces a complete change of policy after the murder of 18 professional volunteer soldiers.
It is unlikely that American society is prepared for serious military losses; and we are not talking about prolonged losses, like those suffered by occupation troops in Iraq or the contingent in Afghanistan, but about losses during the active phase of military operations.
Since then, the mood of the American public is unlikely to have changed, given that the invasion of Iran will result in the loss of more than just 18 soldiers.
This time without satellites
Participation of the English and French in the aggression? In the context of the current relations of the overlord with the rebellious vassals, a repetition of the Iraqi scenario of 1991 and 2003 seems unlikely to me. In fact, the French did not take part in "Iraqi Freedom". The current crisis in Anglo-American relations also excludes the participation of the former in the invasion.
Poland, the Baltics? The latter are only suitable for police functions in a country that has already been captured. The Polish contingent showed itself well in Iraq, especially the Grom special forces, and Afghanistan.
Polish "Thunder" in Iraq
However, the Poles' activities were local in nature and carried out with limited forces. In the foothills of Zagros, it will be necessary to conduct combined arms operations. And the number of ground forces in Poland barely exceeds 70 thousand people.
It is clearly not enough to carry out effective actions against the ground forces of the Islamic Republic, which, without taking into account mobilization, number about 400 thousand soldiers and officers.
Moreover, the level of training of the senior command staff of the Iranian Armed Forces and the IRGC raises questions, since for the past 37 years the country has been living, albeit under sanctions, but without war.
At its disposal is a peacetime army, in which promotion up the career ladder is determined by reasons not always related to the set of competencies put forward by modern warfare.
The Syrian experience of the Islamic Republic's military personnel is limited and was obtained in specific conditions that differ from the Iranian theater of operations. In addition, the elimination of the leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas, the latter directly in Tehran, calls into question the compliance of the Iranian army with 21st century standards, since it is doubtful that the troops meet modern requirements, and military intelligence does not.
The United States in Search of a Third Force
But even if the level of training of the officer corps in general and the senior command staff in particular of the Iranian Armed Forces and the IRGC turns out to be low, I repeat, the theater of operations will play on their side, excluding the Iraqi scenario of a rapid advance by the enemy bypassing large cities and centers of resistance.
In such circumstances, the Yugoslav scenario, which involves searching for a third force capable of solving a strategically important task for the White House without significant losses, but after effective airstrikes, will be more preferable for Trump.
In 1999, this was personified in the person of V.S. Chernomyrdin, “when the Serbs,” writes Balkanist E. Guskova, “were forced to capitulate at the hands of the Russian representative (Chernomyrdin – I.Kh.) on humiliating American terms. And so it will remain in stories».
In Iraq, the problem of excess losses was solved, among other things, by bribing a number of military leaders – in particular, if I am not mistaken, the commander of the Republican Guard special forces, Saddam’s nephew, Lieutenant General Maher Sufyan al-Tikriti, who was responsible for the defense of part of Baghdad, but withdrew his troops from the city under the security guarantees previously provided by the Americans.
In general, corruption in the military elite of Arab countries is a separate topic; it is enough to recall the history of the civil war in Syria and the betrayal of B. Assad by the head of the Syrian military police, Lieutenant General A. al-Shalal.
However, Iranians are not Arabs, but bearers of a much more ancient and developed culture and statehood. And Saddam got burned by underestimating the degree of their resistance in 1980.
Nevertheless, the issue of loyalty of the security forces should worry Tehran, and this concerns not only the highest command staff.
According to media reports, in some places (during the 2022 unrest – I.Kh.) tired police retreated in front of a large column of protesters, and in some places even joined them. And in the small city of Oshnavieh in northwestern Iran, the authorities lost effective control over the situation and retreated from the city. The Iranian army and the IRGC transferred their units there to regain control of the city. Evidence of police joining the protesters came from the Azerbaijani city of Tabriz
– writes V.I. Sazhin.The Second Side – Civil or Is Trump’s Hope Illusory?
In the context of the above quote, we move on to the second – civil – aspect of the problem under consideration, which gives Trump grounds to count on the implementation of his plans to neutralize Iran as a dangerous competitor in the Middle East – in fact, through that same third force, only not an external one, but an internal one.
Student protests in Iran. 2022. Note: The protesters are students of the Amir Kabir University of Technology, where the country's future scientific and technical elite is trained.
Can the US rely on an explosion in Iran and the overthrow of the current government, either through airstrikes or without them, but due to a number of internal reasons?
I already wrote in the article "Paris: From Eurasian Strategy to Oceanic. France's Indian Ticket" about the fatigue of a part – I emphasize: a part – of Iranian society from the mandatory adherence to the norms of Islam, the dress code in clothing, as evidenced by the unrest that shook the country several years ago.
Tehran claims that they were initiated by Western intelligence services. Maybe. But they would not have succeeded if not for a complex of problems affecting the socio-economic life of Iranian society.
The unemployment rate in the country has approached 10%. And this is mostly young people - the most passionate element of society. In addition, out of 84 million Iranians, according to V. I. Sazhin, over 10 million live below the poverty line. And not all of them are old people. Deprived of career prospects and means of subsistence, young people are a real powder keg.
At the same time, a skeptical attitude towards the current government is also felt by part of the older generation, who lived through the times of the Shah and were later forced to follow the norms of Islam prescribed in the constitution, which, in their opinion, were artificially imposed.
It would seem that it is easy to check the level of society's loyalty to the Iranian leadership: cancel the mandatory dress code and adherence to Islamic norms. And if society is really ready to follow the Sharia law, then the abolition of hijabs will not change anything: they will continue to wear them as they were before, and women will voluntarily ride the metro separately from men.
However, the Iranian authorities will not take such a step, while not hiding their fears of a social explosion. It is no coincidence that President M. Pezeshkian sent the "Law on Supporting the Family through Promoting the Culture of Chastity and Hijab", which tightens the dress code rule, to the Majlis for revision.
Accordingly, the question relevant to our topic is: could the situation with the 2022 unrest be repeated in the event of massive airstrikes or, on the contrary, will they lead to the consolidation of Iranian society in the face of external aggression, as was the case in 1980?
Of course, the question does not have a clear answer. I believe that consolidation can happen in a moment, and it is unlikely in the realities of the year mentioned. Since then, a completely different generation has grown up, more multicultural and brought up more by social networks than by the sermons of mullahs.
Yes, undoubtedly, in Iran there is still a large percentage of religiously engaged and loyal youth, ready to take to the streets to defend the ideals of the Islamic revolution. But here is the question: does it constitute a majority and to what extent are they ready to go to the end in the event of upheavals related to the war against the USA?
The gender factor is interesting here: young women played an active role in the protests of 2022, 2023, which is not surprising:
70% of students, - notes V.I. Sazhin, - in Iranian universities are women. And this further aggravates the situation related to the "women's issue"
.In addition, a symbol is needed to consolidate society in the face of an external enemy. At first glance, this would be Brigadier General K. Soleimani, who is revered as a martyr in Iran. He is indeed popular. However, during the 2022 protests, “they threw stones,” writes the orientalist cited above, “and tore down portraits of the leader of the Islamic Revolution and founder of the IRI, Ayatollah Khomeini, and the current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, as well as the national hero, General Soleimani.”
So, as it seems to me, the consolidation of the entire society around the figure of Soleimani is questionable. I emphasize: we are talking about the entire society, a considerable part of it is being consolidated. And the current leadership of the country, including the conservative one, understands this.
Tehran, yes, with its own color, but a completely modern city
In general, in the event of American-Israeli aggression, Iran will face not only an external threat, but also an internal explosion. And we have not yet touched on the acute topics for Tehran of Azerbaijani, Kurdish and Baluch separatism, which the US can play on, just as we have left out of the equation the opposition to the current government in the person of M. Rajavi, who heads the OMIN.
And finally, my prediction: Washington and Tehran will reach an agreement. No one wants war, and the latter will make concessions, because the government, despite its bellicose rhetoric, soberly assesses the situation in the country and least of all wants an “Iranian spring” or a home-grown Maidan.
References
Guskova E. Victor Chernomyrdin and Yugoslavia
Ganiev T.A., Karyakin V.V. The Armed Forces of Iran in the context of confrontation with the United States and possible scenarios for the development of the regional military-political situation
Skvoznikov A.N. NATO military aggression against Yugoslavia in 1999
Sazhin VI.. Hijab, Death and Politics
Sazhin V.I. Ninth President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Masoud Pezeshkian
Sazhin V.I. US and Israel ready to strike Iran
Khetagurov A. Iran's Air Defense and Armored Industry: Competence and Potential
Information