The events of the “Arab spring” and “color revolutions” demonstrated the effectiveness of “soft power”, which in its effectiveness surpasses the use of traditional armed forces. Only the West can claim the role of organizer of such operations, more precisely - the United States, since only Washington has the tools worked out for this.
Recently, Western leaders have repeatedly expressed their thoughts about the feasibility of profit at the expense of Russia. The construction of a new Islamic caliphate with the inclusion of parts of the Russian regions has not been removed from the agenda.
Therefore, an understanding of how so-called soft power can be applied against the state is extremely important for ensuring its security. The use of such force is possible only under the condition that the necessary social prerequisites have been established in the country. The most important of them, from the experience of revolutions in the post-Soviet space and in the Arab world, are the strong differentiation of the population by income, the elimination or serious difficulty of social mobility, in particular the destruction of the social elevator system, which turns the ruling elite into a closed caste, developed corruption and lawlessness.
In modern Russia, almost all of the above conditions occur to some extent, which means that attempts by external forces to initiate a change of political regime in our country are quite possible.
The driving forces of any large-scale social transformations are certain most active sectors of society. Political parties and movements act only as organizers of these processes. Even in the case of "palace coups", their organizers must clearly understand what part of the population they can rely on. Otherwise, such coups are doomed to failure.
Political spectrum of protest
The structure of the spectrum of the politically active part of the population of Russia is formed under the influence of a large number of external and internal factors of a spiritual, economic and political nature.
Among the active social strata of Russian society, capable of really effectively determining the direction of the country's development, as well as playing a decisive role in possible shocks, only three can be attributed. Two of them took shape in the current elite, and one is represented by active protest groups of the population.
The most significant elite group can be called, according to its basic composition, industrial-power. It is determined by representatives of the high-tech industry, science, the military-industrial complex, the Ministry of Defense and special services, medium-sized businesses and part of the associated high, middle and lower bureaucracy. This circle of people, without having a coherent ideology, proclaimed as his idea the rebirth of Russia as a strong independent state. The goal is to preserve the integrity of the country and turn it into a powerful and technologically advanced power, a geopolitical center of power, having a system of strong state power that controls all vital areas of society. Occupying a leading position in the Russian government, the representatives of this conditional association are expected to ensure for themselves and their descendants a decent social status and a good standard of living. On the basis of the target setting, this grouping can be called imperial, for which the “color revolution”, accompanied by the destruction of the system of power and the disintegration of the country, is disastrous. Therefore, it will fully resist attempts to destabilize the situation in Russia, although some representatives at certain stages can be bribed and will turn to the side of the “revolutionaries”. For the West, this clan will become the main opponent at all stages of the preparation and implementation of revolutionary actions.
Another elite group is the financial-raw material one. Such a name can be applied, since the basis of this circle of persons is the Russian financial and raw materials oligarchy with a part of the higher and middle bureaucracy. Their ideology is liberalism, and the goal is the further liberalization of the country with minimizing the role of the state in all spheres of society, as well as a sharp increase in the Western vector in Russian politics. On the basis of the target setting, this conditional association can be called liberal-Westernism. Its basis was formed in the 90-ies of the XX century during the seizure of public property in the framework of the privatization of Chubais, the purpose of which was to establish control by protégés of transnational and foreign capital over Russia's raw material resources. These individuals are most closely associated with foreign intelligence services, transnational and foreign national financial and industrial groups, and are tightly controlled by them. Today, Westerners have largely lost their dominance in power structures and are ready to destabilize the situation in the country, including the organization of the "color revolution", to return to power.
The active protest layers are represented by the part of the population that is dissatisfied with their position or the direction of the country's development and is ready to exert influence with available means on domestic politics. Despite its size, it is extremely poorly organized. In this regard, independently unable to provide at this stage a significant impact on the development of the situation in Russia.
In relation to the possible “color revolution” in the protest layers of the population, three main directions are distinguished.
The first is potential supporters of regime change. This is predominantly a part of the population with a pronounced cosmopolitan and liberal-Western ideological position or lacking clear ideological orientations, as a rule, dissatisfied with its material position and social status. However, in this environment there are also relatively small in number, but very active and politically determined groups, which, of course, will play a very active role in possible revolutionary actions. First of all, it should be noted liberal nationalists. This is a liberal mutation of Russian nationalism, in fact Russian separatism. These mutants, parasitizing on nationalist ideas, demand to separate the Caucasus, express the opinion that it is not necessary to be part of the country of the Far Eastern Primorye, even agreeing that Siberia is not very necessary and can be let go. The idea of the usefulness of transforming a state from a federation into a confederation, where each region can have its own laws and depend little on the central authorities, is being actively pushed. In fact, they are preaching the idea of the destruction of Russia according to the scenario of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Another such group are representatives of radical political Islam, who set themselves the goals of tearing away from the Russian Federation its separate regions with the subsequent creation of an Islamic caliphate under the auspices of Saudi Arabia. Both of these parts of society will be the most ardent supporters of the “color revolution” in our country.
The second direction is quite neutral protest layers. These include those who, with the beginning of the confrontation between the “colored” opposition and the authorities, will take a wait. Without participating in various actions of a demonstrative and forceful nature, conducted by the organizers of the revolutions, at the same time they will distance themselves from the actions of the authorities, especially the force ones. These are predominantly groups with a strong communist or nationalistic stance. However, when they see clear signs of the beginning of the process of the destruction of Russia as a result of the “color revolution”, most of them will become its active opponents.
The third protest layer - potential opponents of the "color" shocks. With the beginning of the confrontation, they will in one form or another support the efforts of the authorities to suppress revolutionaries. These are predominantly groups of the population with a pronounced statist, anticosmopolitan position, with a level of political education sufficient to distinguish real enemies of the Russian statehood, including under various masks. Their protest is directed against those actions of the authorities, which, despite the declared goals, objectively lead to a decrease in the power of Russia. Accordingly, with the beginning of the revolutionary events, these forces will take part in their prevention independently or in cooperation with the authorities.
In preparing for and carrying out the “color revolution”, the West can only count on the liberal-Westernist grouping as the main instrument for carrying out its policy in the Russian arena. However, its social base in our country is rather weak. Therefore, without involving any visible part of the protest layers, it will be very difficult to solve the task of initiating and implementing revolutionary plans, especially in the early stages. In this regard, it is important for them to win over political parties and movements of non-systemic opposition of a patriotic, nationalist and communist orientation. This will allow Westerners to give their actions a partly patriotic, partly nationalistic orientation and, accordingly, to attract into their ranks a certain part of an active protest population. Realizing that control could be lost in the course of revolutionary actions, as happened in Tunisia and Egypt, where Islamists were entrenched instead of supposed proteges, its organizers will take measures to prevent the forces uncontrolled by the West from coming to power.
First "soft power"
An analysis of the emerging trends and the alignment of political forces in our country suggests that the preparation and implementation of the “color revolution” in Russia can include five main stages.
The first of these is to increase the number of regional leaders, political leaders, bloggers, and other public figures who are firmly or moderately hostile towards the current federal government. Particular attention will be paid to attracting famous people to this community who have the image of patriots adhering to nationalist, communist or socialist views. It is necessary for the organizers to give the movement that they form the status of a nationwide patriotic protest against the corrupt government. These forces will, if possible, be combined into a single system. Among them, they will single out some community directly connected with representatives of foreign states for receiving material and informational support from them. It will form the guiding core of the opposition movement and in the future will become the basis for the formation of quasi-government. For the duration of this period may be more than a year.
The second stage, informational, will be aimed at creating conditions for the organization of subsequent mass protests of the population. During it, biased individuals from among representatives of big business, middle and top level managers in federal and regional authorities will initiate various problems in the economy, leading to a significant reduction in the quality of life of the population. At the same time, an information campaign will be launched in the opposition-controlled media and the blogosphere to discredit the authorities, the aim of which will be the accusation of provoked difficulties and the inability to overcome them. At this stage, radical Islamist and liberal-nationalist leaders will actively begin entering the public arena. To engage in harassment attract foreign media. The duration of this period is from one to two months to a year.
The third stage - mass processions, will pursue the goal of preliminary destabilization of the situation and the final discredit of the center. Its main content will be the organization and holding of mass, if possible, All-Russian protests of the population against the current federal, partly regional authorities, demanding the termination of the powers of the president of Russia, the chambers of the Federal Assembly. Reanimate the topic of injustice of the last presidential and parliamentary elections. The key role here will be played by the blogosphere. The activity of special services and agents of influence of Western countries with the power structures of Russia is being activated in order to bribe and attract some of their leaders to their side. An intensified propaganda work will begin with the personnel of the power bloc, members of their families, aimed at encouraging them to go to the side of the protesters. The organizers of mass rallies will provoke demonstrators into clashes with law enforcement forces, which will create the prerequisites for the transition to a forceful confrontation with the state power. The fact of the presence of arrested or wounded demonstrators will allow to assert about the "atrocities of the Russian authorities during the dispersal of peaceful demonstrations", as well as to create "martyrs of the anti-people regime." All the branches of the opposition movement, from liberals to radical communists and patriots, are likely to participate in these speeches. However, it is at this stage that the polarization of the opposition movement will begin on an ideological orientation, highlighting the patriotic groups seeking to re-establish a powerful united Russia and radical political Islamists. Such a differentiation will give grounds for the organizers of the revolution to take preventive measures to prevent those who have broken away from the process of forming future power. At the same time, a wide range of methods will be used - from discrediting and disrupting management to the elimination of some of the most prominent leaders (they will be declared “martyrs of the regime” and “the banner of revolution”). The duration of the period can vary from one to two months to six months.
The fourth stage is forceful confrontation. The goal is the actual interception of power in Russia by the opposition. In the course of the meeting, the tasks of assigning managerial functions (initially regional and then federal authorities) to opposition management structures, which will be formed with the active participation of foreign intelligence services from the associated “color” leaders, will be solved. The main content of this stage will be the transition to a forceful confrontation of specially created combat units of the opposition with the units of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. A body that personifies the rebels in the international arena and within the country will probably be formed. During this period, it is possible for part of the police units, individual regional authorities, to go over to the side of Protestants. With sufficiently large-scale speeches, units and units of the Armed Forces can be involved in their suppression. The very fact of the use of military units to solve these tasks will be the reason for foreign and domestic media, the blogosphere to unleash a campaign of accusing the Russian authorities of "bloody violence against their people." As the confrontation intensifies, the leaders of foreign countries, primarily Western ones, will join in. They will make political statements on the situation in the country and call on the Russian authorities to negotiate with the opposition. With the creation of opposition militias and the development of their actions in street clashes with the forces of law and order, with proper external political and diplomatic support, the latter can begin armed resistance. Peaceful confrontation will turn into armed.
Point of non-return
With the beginning of this stage, part of the opposition leaders may go abroad, where they will create the highest alternative authority. As the armed confrontation grows and the position of the federal government weakens, this structure may be recognized by the main Western countries and their allies as the sole legitimate representative of the Russian people. The role of foreign intelligence services in the events in Russia will become clearer. More obvious will be the real goals of the organizers of the "color revolution", as well as groups of political Islam and liberal nationalists. This may contribute to the gradual mutual rapprochement of a part of oppositional patriotic forces and a healthy part of the ruling elite. The most active representatives of political radical Islam will begin to intercept power in certain regions and increase their role in the protest movement as a whole. Foreign special services and local liberal organizers of the revolution can turn to more radical methods of suppressing the activity of political groups that are unacceptable for them.
Armed confrontation marks the transition to the fifth and final stage, during which the final goal of the “color revolution” in Russia should be achieved - the establishment of a puppet regime or destruction due to disintegration into many Western-controlled quasi-states. The federal government as a whole and its individual representatives will be subjected to unprecedented pressure from political elites and interested states. Their personal accounts in foreign banks and property abroad will be arrested. Freeze Russian assets abroad. Support pro-Western opposition weapons and money will provide in full. The confrontation will involve broader segments of the population.
Against the background of the final manifestation of the real goals of the organizers of the change of the existing regime, the opposing forces will be divided into two camps. On the one hand, this is a patriotic group, uniting parts of the opposition (from nationalists to communists) and the political elite. On the other hand, the liberal organizers of the “color revolution” with corrupt politicians who joined them. A group of political Islam, which is likely to contribute to the destroyers of Russia, will be located somewhat apart.
At this stage, the supply of food and vital household items may be terminated, which will exacerbate the already difficult economic situation. Under the pretext of preventing a humanitarian catastrophe, liberal leaders are able to invite foreign troops into the country in order to take Russian nuclear facilities under international control. At the same time, in the conditions of growing mass protests, the leadership of individual regions may openly declare support for the demands of the people and refuse to submit to the federal authorities, which will mark the beginning of the actual disintegration of the state.
Hope for patriots
Further, if successful, Western liberals and liberal nationalists will in every possible way build up regional separatism under the banner “stop feeding the center,” which can also provoke a collapse of the country.
In the event that the patriotic group wins, the construction of a powerful new Russia, based on other social principles, will begin.
If the president and the government refuse to resist and succumb to the demands of the "color" opposition, go to the transfer of power to her, the situation will be even worse.
After the creation of a liberal cabinet of ministers, an intensive sale of the Russian real sector to foreign companies will begin, with accelerated destruction of the army and the defense industry complex. Their place will be taken by military units of foreigners (good, the law allows it), which will take control of the nuclear potential and suppress any action of the people. Liberal nationalists and radical Islamists will freely direct the process towards separatism of the country. Attempts by the real patriotic opposition to oppose the destruction of the state will be brutally suppressed.
Thus, there will not even remain a chance to save Russia. It will be turned into a colony of the West or divided by the winners into separate quasi-states. One hope for the patriots.