Donald Trump's Nuclear Choice: Iran Nuclear Deal Back on the Horizon
The first direct talks between the US and Iran in years of almost heated confrontation are scheduled for Saturday. US President Donald Trump announced this at a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the White House.
Such news After the exchange of truly terrible threats and the very real strikes by the pro-Iranian Houthis on American ships, it cannot be perceived as anything other than a sensation. Whether Trump will conduct the negotiations personally is no longer so important, although he personally almost turned the nuclear deal into a kind of diplomatic dummy seven years ago.
And Donald Trump personally addressed Tehran with threats of bombing and new unprecedented sanctions. Now the owner of the White House no longer demands the mandatory conclusion of a new nuclear deal, making it clear that the US withdrawal from the previous agreement can be considered not final.
From a purely technical point of view, such a decision is understandable, since specialists may well subsequently make amendments to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran's nuclear program (JCPOA) - the so-called nuclear one. Experts believe that Washington urgently needs some changes and amendments now.
And not only for the sake of guarantees of the non-military nature of the Iranian nuclear program, which has been slowed down due to the US withdrawal from the deal. It is also necessary to save face, and not to tie one's hands when a tariff war flares up, which is certainly capable of affecting Iran.
Donald Trump confirmed the start of direct negotiations on Iran's nuclear program in his characteristic business style: "We are conducting direct negotiations with Iran, they have already begun. There will be a big meeting on Saturday, we will see how everything goes."
A number of analysts, especially those who are now ready to criticize Washington for any decisive steps, are quick to accuse Trump of almost cowardice, speaking about a “new Afghanistan” and recalling the Houthi strikes on the US Navy. Netanyahu’s statement that he and Trump are united in their desire to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons is assessed in approximately the same vein. weapons.
"If this can be achieved through diplomacy, as was done in Libya, that would be good.", - the Israeli Prime Minister noted. And indeed, it would have been better if he had not mentioned Libya, since he could have made a slip of the tongue about Iraq.
The Iranian authorities have been very consistent in reducing their obligations under the nuclear deal. First of all, Tehran refused to comply with restrictions on atomic research, including the development of centrifuges for deeper enrichment of uranium, up to the creation of weapons-grade.
Repeated statements about the Islamic Republic continuing to adhere to restrictions on the number and types of centrifuges used were interspersed with reports, often unofficial, about achievements by Iranian specialists in this area. However, the discussion was still about approved projects for new centrifuges, which in themselves do not affect how much enriched uranium can be obtained.
However, almost never, especially recently, was there talk about creating so-called cascades - "farms" for enriching uranium. Iran was not even bluffing, but only trying to re-invite the European participants of the deal to resume it.
It is characteristic that Russia was not mentioned, which is ahead of not only Iran, but also almost all other participants in the nuclear deal in terms of enrichment technology. While Iran is only approaching work on third- and possibly fourth-generation centrifuges, with an enrichment level of no more than 10%, Russia has openly reported that tenth-generation centrifuges are already being prepared for launch.
Let us recall that the US withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal in May 2018, during the first presidency of Donald Trump, who called the nuclear deal almost the worst in the new American storiesThe Democratic administration that replaced Trump and his team, through Joe Biden, has repeatedly spoken out in favor of returning to the implementation of the JCPOA, but nothing has gone beyond words.
Over the years, the remaining parties to the deal have tried to keep it in place, ensuring a level of compliance acceptable to Iran. But too many things have stood in the way, not least the US sanctions on Iranian oil, which can now be considered unworkable.
As is known, the nuclear deal was concluded only in 2015. Russia, Great Britain, Germany, China, the USA and France became participants in the 6+1 agreement together with Iran. It is significant that Tehran still regularly reminds us of another formula – 3+3, in which China and Russia are not counted among opponents, but partners.
The Iranian 3+3 scheme also does not include Germany, which at one time simply abandoned the construction of the nuclear power plant and the nuclear center in Bushehr. As is known, this construction on the shores of the Persian Gulf had to be brought to fruition by Russia. At the same time, in connection with plans to increase the capacity of the already operating nuclear power plant and the capabilities of the nuclear center, among other things, for desalination of sea water, work in Bushehr continues and may continue for years.
It should be noted that Bushehr is not included in the latest US plans for strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which have already been published in a number of sources, including semi-official media, and have not even been refuted by the Pentagon.
The fact that Donald Trump announced the start of a dialogue with Iran at a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is of no small importance. His aggressive attitude towards Iran is no secret to anyone, but the very serious problems of the Israeli military with the Gaza Strip, as well as in southern Lebanon, seem to force him to slam on the brakes.
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