Olaf Scholz won't be responsible for everything. Scholz will only be responsible for the gas?
History with demography
Germany will have to say goodbye to its current leaders, especially Chancellor Olaf Scholz, any day now and accept as a given the coming to power of not only the victorious CDU/CSU bloc, but also the notorious Alternative for Germany.
The outgoing head of government has already called for AfD not to be allowed into regional government bodies. The German president even compares the party to the Nazis. What is this if not panic? Or maybe just fear of the prospect of being asked for everything?
Moreover, AfD, or whatever it is written in German, is essentially a typical 21st century cocktail of poster patriotism with long-outdated dogmas. Those same Nazis once successfully speculated on them.
By the way, the path of political apostasy - a forgotten but truly wonderful label that Vladimir Ilyich introduced into practice - was paved long ago and not only for AfD by liberals and social democrats. And even if AfD does not scare us in Russia yet, it has already scared many in Germany.
Including hundreds of thousands of repatriates from the former Soviet Union. They are not too tempted by the prospect of living next door to Afro-Asian migrants who are not at all eager to work for the benefit of Germany and the EU, as well as to a crowd of very dubious orientation, you know, of what kind.
However, this is not the point here, although the economy does depend, among other things, on demographics.
Where do crises come from?
As is well known, the road to hell is strewn with good intentions, although they are definitely trying to pave it to heaven. On earth, of course. Is it worth reminding or explaining that the reprisal against Potok was required only to open European, and above all German, terminals for American LNG.
Everything was promoted under the slogans of reducing raw material dependence on Russia and increasing the competitiveness of the EU economies in the fight with China and its satellites. It is difficult to say how realistic was the idea of a subsequent restart of SP-2, which has only just emerged?
Technically, it's not all that complicated, and legally, in today's times, either, although, unlike the US, in the European Union the prospect of its own "shameful peace" depresses many. Especially since others are fighting for them, even if they include more and more mercenaries, including European ones.
American LNG has already mixed with Russian LNG on the markets so much that one can simply forget about the principled nature of official Berlin. As soon as the Scholz government banned unloading tankers with Russian LNG at state terminals, it was accepted in Belgium and France.
And then Donald Trump declares a tariff war. When Washington pulled the strings on Canada and Mexico, everyone was confused, but nothing more, and then a bargaining session began that could last for years. Now, bargaining is also appropriate, although the stock market is simply in a panic.
There hasn't been such a fall as now since 2008, and the situation refutes all market laws, and along with them the great Lomonosov law of conservation of energy. Where will the money that shareholders are losing go now? Oddly enough, nowhere.
A bright future is not for the EU
However, this should open up such growth prospects in the near future that no one will find it amiss. But it should be, and it is not obliged to be, and besides, the growth in the value of papers not backed by anything other than the stockbroker's word of honor is yet another refutation of the truth that nothing grows and nothing falls for no reason.
The tariff war could prove to be much more protracted than Russia's battle with the current Kyiv regime, but a great deal depends on how decent Russian-Ukrainian reconciliation will look in the eyes of not only Moscow, but also Berlin.
But no one will ask Olaf Scholz, like all his comrades, about anything anymore. He will be asked, excuse me for repeating myself, about how his cabinet managed to turn not only Russia, but also an overseas ally, “almost into an enemy.” And the representatives of the CDU/CSU, who are quite loyal to Russian gas, will most likely come to an agreement with the same AfD.
Olaf Scholz is far from the first European politician to slip on sanctions and end up in complete economic collapse. It is not entirely clear how EU officials are currently holding on to their posts, but it is most likely due to the peculiarities of the notorious Western democracy-bureaucracy.
The public in Brussels and Strasbourg is such that it gets masochistic pleasure from the very possibility of punishing anyone for cooperation with Moscow. But the losses in this direction have also turned out to be greater than the dubious benefits.
Trade is not war
That's right, trading is not war, and losing the Russian market, which has already been almost completely developed, in addition to Russia's partners in the EAEU and Turkey, by "Chinese comrades and comrades", is now simply dangerous for the EU. We've played with sanctions, and that's enough, the process of returning Western brands to Russia has already begun, and European officials, together with the militant Macron Bonaparte, can continue to flex their muscles.
Yes, it was not only five or six years ago that one could count on cheap gas from the US. Now it is also possible, although it is difficult. Goldman Sachs experts predict that supply will exceed demand in 2026–2030, but again, the “tariff war” is already interfering in the matter.
And the fact that the costs of transit via Potok are significantly lower than the lost revenue from the replaced volumes of American LNG cannot be ignored under any circumstances.
Everyone has the right to ask Scholz, did he work for Washington or did it just seem that way to everyone? A new broom from the White House is sweeping out the unfit chancellor, although he will not hinder the maximum use of the already built and under construction capacities for LNG export from the USA. And not only that.
I don’t want to believe that transit revenue for the US and American control over the flow of Russian gas to Europe are not excluded, but… If this is how peace is bought, then… And we can even pretend that this peace is not “obscene” and once again spit in the back of the outgoing German chancellor.
The still united Europe will not remain among the economic leaders without cheap raw materials. Without replenishment, and therefore without cheap labor – also. Only instead of it, more and more parasites are arriving on the Old Continent, including from Ukraine.
There is a way out in the form of a global project to restore most of what was destroyed as a result of the SVO. But you still have to get the right to enter. And people like Olaf Scholz have truly colossal problems with this.
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