Military Review

Pakistan: Is there a peaceful revolution?

17
Today Pakistan is mired in external debt. Corruption, nepotism and theft flourish in the government and ruling party. Capitals are exported from the country in bags and tons. State enterprises are pulling away budget funds. The economy is falling apart on the background of constant political violence: in the country, tens and hundreds of people die as a result of terrorist attacks. The judicial branch of government can hardly be called fully functioning - just like the branch of executive power. Many people in Pakistan, especially the middle class, see salvation in the actions of the army - however, the latter has lost its influence on political life. In many respects, it is the merit of General Ashfak Kayani, Chief of the General Staff, who, after 2008, kept the army out of politics. However, the events of modern times suggest that the army is still not lost ...


Photo: REUTERS / Naseer Ahmed / Reuters


January 10 The Pakistan 2013 terrorist attacks occurred in Quetta (Balochistan province) and Mingora (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province). More than a hundred people died, over two hundred were injured. In the afternoon, a car filled with explosives exploded near the market in Quetta. Bottom line: 15 killed, more than 20 injured. In the evening a series of explosions took place in the city. In the billiard club, located in the south-west, in the Shiite neighborhoods of the city, 81 people were killed by an explosion and more than 120 were injured. Upon arrival at the scene of the representatives of the special services, firefighters and journalists there was a second explosion. The building collapsed roof, which killed several more people.

Previously, December 22 2012, in Pakistan, the Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Bashir Ahmad Bilouura, a well-known opponent of the Taliban, was assassinated.

Both of these events are closely related to the appearance in the country of Mr. Tahir Kadri, who returned home from Canada after a seven-year absence. This man is an Islamist theologian, the leader of the powerful Tehrik-e-Minhaj ul-Quran movement (Movement of Pilgrims in Defense of the Quran), an organization represented in ninety countries of the world.

According to the general opinion that has developed among various analysts, including those from the “opposite” camps, the activity of Mr. Kadri in Pakistan led to a quiet start of the “green spring” here. Spring can even be called Canadian, if you like, because any statements about democracy, freedoms and human rights, whatever one may say, are often seized by liberals migrating to and fro from the West and then introduced into the eastern homeland. Western ideals are usually imported with tears and blood. However, in Pakistan, everything is a little different. Here it is believed that it is these ideals that gushing blood and endless suffering will stop. No, not by bullets and rockets, but in a peaceful way. At least, Qadri, although an Islamist, has not yet shown any militancy. In the West, by the way, it is considered "moderate."

Mr. Kadri appeared in Pakistan on December 23 - that is, the day after the assassination of B. A. Biloura (recall the opponent of the Taliban). The appearance itself seems purposely calculated, theatrical action. A convenient way for any opposition politician is to play on death. Kadri is not a stupid man. He is a former professor at Punjab University, an expert in constitutional law, and is quite capable of calculating the right moment of appearance on the political scene.

This lawyer, who left Pakistan in 2006 due to friction with Pervez Musharraf, was greeted at home with flowers. He was literally showered with rose petals. Immediately it became clear that he imported revolutionary ideas into the country: he did not conceal it and spoke of reforms. Not having time to arrive at home, the theologian demanded to dissolve the parliament and local legislative bodies, postpone the elections and swear in the Provisional Government. It should have been, according to the idea of ​​a velvet revolutionary, to hold new elections to the National Assembly. And the army will control the new elections.

So, spring came with Kadri to Pakistan.

The attacks in Quetta, which claimed dozens of lives, gave a new impetus to the activities of the famous theologian. As Alexander Dudchak writes ("Geopolitics"), the Pakistani “revolutionary” events are different from the majority of the coups in the “Arab spring” in that their organizers do not at all try to present them with elemental outrage of the people.

13 January in Lahore - the capital of the province of Punjab - began the march, preceded by prayer. After it, 6-7 thousands of people sat in two hundred prepared buses and 150 cars. These promoters drove about 300 kilometers. The column was followed by three tanks with fuel, special vehicles to eliminate possible obstacles on the road, cars with food for participants and gas equipment for its preparation, toilets and bedding. This column of the former professor was happily greeted by the locals. They sprinkled the road with rose petals.

In a matter of days, the “revolutionary” movement of the Canadian theologian suddenly gained wide popularity. Among the reasons for the rapid growth in popularity of Kadri, the analyst notes a noisy advertising campaign, which was carried out with the help of the organizational resource of the opposition. The revolution, being carried to the people by Mr. Kadri, was called "green, popular, peaceful."

This theologian, says Lyubov Lyulko (Pravda.ru), On January 14 at the head of the so-called “march of millions” (50.000 people were able to assemble in total) arrived in Islamabad - on the street where government offices are located. And he said: “I give the government a deadline until tomorrow to dissolve the federal parliament and the provincial assemblies. After that, the masses will take responsibility for themselves. "

Qadri and his loyal demonstrators swore on the Koran that they would remain in Islamabad until the complete victory of the revolution.

Federal Minister of Information and Broadcasting, Kamar Zaman Kariya, responded that Kadri’s demands were unconstitutional. The inclusion of the army and the judiciary in the consultation process on the establishment of the Provisional Government is not provided for in the Constitution. “The time has passed when a foreigner could rule the country,” said Karia.

And Kadri on this noticed: “We don’t have a parliament - there is a gang of robbers, thieves and marauders. Our legislators are lawbreakers. ”

It should be noted that the protests at government buildings passed without incident. Participants of the "march of millions" set up tents near police fences. Brought mobile tents and toilets were installed near the canvas tents. Participants of the “march” sang and danced, rejoicing that “spring” finally came to their country.

At this peaceful rally (it’s hard to say how peaceful it is, because there are messages in the media about shooting from the parliament - it’s not possible to check them; the western press only knows that, before starting his fervent speech, Kadri himself climbed inside a cargo container with bullet-proof glass) it was announced that the Supreme Court had decided to remove from office the corrupt official Raja Pervez Ashraf, followed by another fifteen high-ranking officials, observer notes "Centuries" Andrei Pravov. This suggests that the Supreme Court supports the main demand of the protesters.

However, Ashraf denies all accusations (usual corruption in Pakistan). On the fifth day of the rally, the authorities agreed with a Canadian citizen, and the protest was phased out. The authorities have promised that parliamentary elections will be held in accordance with the constitution and in time. In the meantime, a transitional government will be formed in the country that will suit all political forces. So ended the "march of millions." There is information that January 17 Tahir Kadri signed an agreement with the government, which Prime Minister Ashraf allegedly pushed.

The speed with which the theologian, who arrived from Canada, managed to organize a protest rally of many thousands, shows that the situation in Pakistan has reached a boiling point, and boiling water is about to spill over the edge of the pan.

That is why, according to A. Pravov, the calls of the theologian for the eradication of the “feudal corruption system” and the conduct of the “democratic revolution” have fallen on well-fertilized soil. No doubt, the seeds of the economic crisis will also grow. There are interruptions in electricity and gasoline in the country. And this - not to mention the constant bloody "friction" between the Sunni and Shiite communities of Pakistan.

Who is behind the Canadian theologian? It may well be - the military: after all, Tahir Kadri had no reason to say about the “control of the army” at the elections. In addition, the “march of millions” was highly appreciated by General Pervez Musharraf. The media are circulating persistent rumors that the military and finance the actions of a fiery fighter against corruption and government theft. It should be noted here that in the 1999 year, a theologian who at that time lived in his homeland, and who did not even think of distant Canada, supported Pervez Musharraf’s revolt. A few years later, however, these two disagreed on the methods of controlling the people, and Kadri had to leave his homeland.

There is another version of what is happening. The Canadian Islamist theologian received money to organize a pre-prepared “march of millions” in the United States. Why does the State Department need this? From the point of view of Washington, the “green” revolutionary helps the military to return to power in Islamabad, and those will help the command of the “anti-terrorist coalition” to improve relations with the Taliban in Afghanistan. The US is interested in establishing order in Pakistan on the eve of the upcoming withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. And here they will help local people in the form. It is necessary only to arrange so that they took power.

Thus, if the “Arab Spring” in Pakistan is not funded by Musharraf’s team, then its treasury is in the US Department of State.

However, the economic crisis in the United States, recently recorded a budget sequestration for 85 billion dollars, as well as the extremely low probability that Washington will start raking nuclear Pakistan before the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, do not leave a stone unturned from this version. In the end, it is impossible to believe that the making of the “spring” simply became a bad habit of the State Department. In addition, the Kadri organization is rich enough and is known for successfully finding money for the needs of Islam. For example, in the same democratic Canada, the ex-professor raised funds for the needs of the Islamic community of Pakistan.

Most likely, those who think that the military stand behind Kadri are right. First, immediately after the "march of millions" followed by a statement by Pervez Musharraf about the support of the theologian. Secondly, the general said that he was about to return to his native Pakistan. He, who has been living in London since 2008, was interviewed "BBC"in which he said that he was going to return home and "help his party" during the elections in May of this year. And this is despite the fact that Pakistan’s law enforcement agencies are seeking the arrest of Musharraf, suspected of involvement in the assassination of Benazir Bhutto (the wife of former President Asif Ali Zardari was the prime minister of the country).

German specialist on Asia Günther Knabe back in January expressed confidence that the Tahir Kadri movement was inspired by the military, who recently began to lose influence on political life. Through the mouth of an Islamic theologian agitating the masses against the government, the military plans to thwart regular elections and disrupt the constitutional process. There will be a coup, the German expert believes. The sooner the better for the military. They favor extraordinary elections, the creation of a "transitional government". Knabe finds the real revolutionary scenario in Pakistan unlikely. He predicts that the government will delay negotiations with the Canadian and wait for the recession of the protests.

Meanwhile, Pervez Musharraf kept his word: he back to Pakistan. His plane landed in Karachi on the morning of March 24. He is really going to take part in the general elections to the National Assembly, which will be held in the country 11 May. Shortly before his arrival, another terrorist attack occurred in North Waziristan, as a result of which 17 people died. Taking advantage of the situation, Musharraf said that "we must crush terrorism and extremism." In response, the Taliban threatened to kill Musharraf and reported that they had already prepared for the killing of suicide militants.

Musharraf was generally accepted unkindly: on March 31, the ex-president near the court building was subjected to a humiliating attack by lawyers. One of them threw in it a boot. True, he did not reach the former president, who was surrounded by guards and reporters. The attacker was among twenty lawyers who had earlier staged a protest rally under the slogan "Musharraf is a dictator and should be hanged."

29 March Supreme Court of Sindh Province in Pakistan approved extension of the pledge in relation to the ex-President of the country Pervez Musharraf. His name today appears in three court cases: the murder of Benazir Bhutto in 2007, the death of the tribal elder as a result of the military operation in 2006, and the restriction of the movement of several judges in 2007. According to Pakistani press reports, the court extended the bail for the last two cases of the ex-president for 15 days, and for the Bhutto murder case - for 21 day.

According to a study conducted in March by the Heinrich Böll Foundation, 29% of Pakistani voters intend to to support the election of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), and 25% to support the Nawaz Sharif party (Pakistan Muslim League). Another 20% would have voted for Imran Khan's PTI (“Justice Movement”).

PPP, Pakistan’s largest party, is led by Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari. The ideology of the party can be described as social-democratic, it has traditionally advocated the provision of large-scale government assistance to the poor and the strengthening of relations with China. President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Ashraf, however, have been constantly criticized for alleged involvement in corruption, ignoring the country's problems and the inability to curb terrorism.

An important participant in the upcoming elections is the Tehrik-e-Insaf party (Justice Movement, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, PTI). It positions itself as a counterweight to the main traditional parties and as a force uniting all Pakistanis - regardless of ethnic or religious affiliation. PTI stands for a comprehensive modernization of the country according to the model of the Islamic welfare state, against corruption, religious and ethnic strife.

The Pakistan Muslim League (the Pakistan Muslim League, also referred to as the All-Pakistan Muslim League) is headed by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The party is in favor of improving relations with the United States, the European Union and India. At present, the party is positioning itself as a counterbalance to the corrupt establishment.

Columnist "Kommersant" Sergey Tamilin, referring to an anonymous source from Islamabad, writes that the return of General Musharraf will exacerbate the intrigue of Pakistani politics, which grows nostalgia for the “strong hand” against the background of the falling popularity of the current civilian government. Extreme corruption and growing conflict between various branches of government have undermined the authority of the civilian government of President Zardari. A source in the Kommersant newspaper believes that the All-Pakistan Muslim League, led by Musharraf, has every chance of forming an influential faction in parliament.

In this case, the London exile will once again become one of the leading players in Pakistani politics. Thus, the figure of Kadri with his statements about the army for a reason arose on the Pakistani political horizon.

Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
17 comments
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  1. Orik
    Orik April 4 2013 08: 35 New
    +2
    Not guys, China will not allow such a mess on its borders. He has all the means for this.
    1. Strezhevchanin
      Strezhevchanin April 4 2013 10: 02 New
      +3
      Well, the fact that this is another spit for us with China is already clear.
      The fact that China will not allow a mess there, I also sincerely hope that this is also our interest.
      1. elmi
        elmi April 4 2013 11: 57 New
        +5
        Familiar song. America found out that Pakistan leased its port in the Persian Gulf to China and that China would pull the oil pipeline from the Persian Gulf to China, so it immediately recalled the familiar worked-out funds - the color revolution
    2. Geisenberg
      Geisenberg April 4 2013 14: 43 New
      -2
      China Pakistan to the light bulb. Here in India the turnip was combed ...
      1. Orik
        Orik April 4 2013 20: 23 New
        +2
        China has long grazed in Pakistan and many of Pakistan’s anti-American moves are a result of China’s support. Pakistan is also beneficial to China as a counterbalance to India, with which China is confronted and has unresolved territorial disputes. Plus, this is a land way to deliver energy.
        Although India, rabid Islamists are also not needed on the border.
  2. Parabelum
    Parabelum April 4 2013 08: 39 New
    +6
    The words "Pakistan" and "peaceful" in one sentence cause me sustained cognitive dissonance.
    1. Бондарь
      Бондарь April 4 2013 13: 25 New
      0
      the same thoughts arose laughing
    2. Geisenberg
      Geisenberg April 4 2013 14: 43 New
      +1
      Let them surrender all nuclear weapons voluntarily and arrange for themselves at least a “Muslim winter”, even an “Arab hara-kiri” ...
    3. Mairos
      Mairos April 5 2013 16: 46 New
      0
      As soon as a revolution in an Islamic country is so “peaceful”. The result is always either a civil war or the rise to power of radical Islamists.
      As in the scenario - chaos, do not wash so skating.
  3. korp67
    korp67 April 4 2013 08: 44 New
    0
    Apparently, the States slammed the situation in Pakistan. China rules.
  4. Nomad
    Nomad April 4 2013 09: 09 New
    0
    And who thought of passing them nuclear technology !?
  5. avt
    avt April 4 2013 09: 35 New
    +1
    Quote: Nomad
    And who thought of passing them nuclear technology !?

    request Democratizers of the planet with Saudi money, one hundred percent part of the ammunition of the Saudis. Here is such a “balance” of nuclear powers in the East.
  6. Vovka levka
    Vovka levka April 4 2013 10: 53 New
    -5
    What is the article about? On the tales of the Vienna Woods.
    Advice to the author - to go to Pakistan and live there, at least for a year, among Muslims.
  7. Mosen6Ish
    Mosen6Ish April 4 2013 11: 07 New
    +2
    I read the first paragraph ...
    From the point of view of an outside observer, the situation in Russia does not resemble?
  8. knn54
    knn54 April 4 2013 12: 17 New
    +3
    Reminds Dagestan.
    In Pakistan, Punjabis (61% of the population) dominate the administrative-bureaucracy, business, politics, and the officer corps.
    15 million Pashtuns, who want to create Great Pashtunistan and 14 million Sindhas, who are at the very bottom of the social ladder, disagree with this. They want to create their own state of Sindhu Desh.
    3,5 million Belujas from Pakistan and ~ 1,6 million from Afghanistan and Iran (the main support of the Yankees) have long waged a guerrilla war for an independent Balochistan.
    In practice, Islam is the only thing that unites the country, but 80% are Sunnis, 20% are Shiites, and armed conflicts periodically break out between them.
    But unlike Iraq, where civilians are mostly victims, the main targets of al-Qaeda attacks in Pakistan are military personnel, border guards and the police. And in the areas of resettlement of rebel tribes, attacks on military columns and bases became more frequent. The intensity of battles and explosions is much higher than in neighboring Afghanistan. The government army is no longer able to suppress the nationalist movements leading the guerrilla war.
    Fundamentalists do not need an independent Pakistan, their goal is a supranational caliphate, living according to Sharia law. This system has already been tested in Afghanistan by the Taliban, and in Somalia by the Union of Islamic Courts. Perspective is a medieval extremist state with nuclear weapons.
    PS Natives of this country are the main participants in the terrorist attacks of recent years in the UK. From here extremists infiltrate the Indian states of Jammu and Kashmir, the Chinese Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, and the republics of Central Asia. Unsuccessfully demanding the extradition of Islamic militants hiding in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Egypt ...
    PPS Since 2007, there has been deliberate terrorization of school-age children ... militants want to deprive the country of its future. But the killing of children and women is PROHIBITED by Islam even in wartime!
    1. Yeraz
      Yeraz April 4 2013 13: 21 New
      +2
      Knn, I thought the Punjab was in India before. It’s just not familiar with the situation, but in Indian films when a hero appears from the Punjab it’s mostly impudent, noisy, very strong, more conservative and disordered people by their origin. Or it’s not So is it stupid movie stereotypes?
  9. FC SKIF
    FC SKIF April 4 2013 13: 18 New
    +1
    Everything is simple - the matter is in the "youth hillocks", i.e. in too much percentage of youth. It is the youth that is most passionate, seeks a way out of its boisterous energy, and finds it in radicalism. It doesn’t matter what color radicalism is: red, brown, green (for those around them. They are absolutely sure that they are right and will kill and die for the idea. Those who were not revolutionary in youth have no heart. Those who did not become conservatives in old age have there are no brains. "Churchill. And someone behind them is using it.
  10. Light source
    Light source April 4 2013 14: 06 New
    +1
    If NATO gains control of Pakistan, they will be able to put pressure on India against China, and military cooperation with us.
  11. I think so
    I think so April 4 2013 14: 09 New
    +3
    As soon as any country begins to pursue a policy that is in the interests of its people, the Pindos will not like it and immediately terrorist acts will begin in it, the economic difficulties of speaking out as “fighters for democracy”. All this clearly shows that the USA is behind ALL terrorist organizations. It is impossible to explain such metamorphoses in another way. So the USA is the main TERRORIST on the planet.
    1. Vovka levka
      Vovka levka April 4 2013 14: 13 New
      -1
      There is such an organization - the IRA. When the USSR collapsed, and the IRA swelled up, somehow strange, don’t you?
  12. Setrac
    Setrac April 4 2013 16: 18 New
    +1
    Canada - again they are, it’s time for Pakistan to declare war on Canada, I wonder if Pakistan has delivery vehicles?
  13. воронов
    воронов April 6 2013 22: 47 New
    0
    This Pakistan will fall apart into several infinitely warring states