Photo: REUTERS / Naseer Ahmed / Reuters
January 10 The Pakistan 2013 terrorist attacks occurred in Quetta (Balochistan province) and Mingora (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province). More than a hundred people died, over two hundred were injured. In the afternoon, a car filled with explosives exploded near the market in Quetta. Bottom line: 15 killed, more than 20 injured. In the evening a series of explosions took place in the city. In the billiard club, located in the south-west, in the Shiite neighborhoods of the city, 81 people were killed by an explosion and more than 120 were injured. Upon arrival at the scene of the representatives of the special services, firefighters and journalists there was a second explosion. The building collapsed roof, which killed several more people.
Previously, December 22 2012, in Pakistan, the Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Bashir Ahmad Bilouura, a well-known opponent of the Taliban, was assassinated.
Both of these events are closely related to the appearance in the country of Mr. Tahir Kadri, who returned home from Canada after a seven-year absence. This man is an Islamist theologian, the leader of the powerful Tehrik-e-Minhaj ul-Quran movement (Movement of Pilgrims in Defense of the Quran), an organization represented in ninety countries of the world.
According to the general opinion that has developed among various analysts, including those from the “opposite” camps, the activity of Mr. Kadri in Pakistan led to a quiet start of the “green spring” here. Spring can even be called Canadian, if you like, because any statements about democracy, freedoms and human rights, whatever one may say, are often seized by liberals migrating to and fro from the West and then introduced into the eastern homeland. Western ideals are usually imported with tears and blood. However, in Pakistan, everything is a little different. Here it is believed that it is these ideals that gushing blood and endless suffering will stop. No, not by bullets and rockets, but in a peaceful way. At least, Qadri, although an Islamist, has not yet shown any militancy. In the West, by the way, it is considered "moderate."
Mr. Kadri appeared in Pakistan on December 23 - that is, the day after the assassination of B. A. Biloura (recall the opponent of the Taliban). The appearance itself seems purposely calculated, theatrical action. A convenient way for any opposition politician is to play on death. Kadri is not a stupid man. He is a former professor at Punjab University, an expert in constitutional law, and is quite capable of calculating the right moment of appearance on the political scene.
This lawyer, who left Pakistan in 2006 due to friction with Pervez Musharraf, was greeted at home with flowers. He was literally showered with rose petals. Immediately it became clear that he imported revolutionary ideas into the country: he did not conceal it and spoke of reforms. Not having time to arrive at home, the theologian demanded to dissolve the parliament and local legislative bodies, postpone the elections and swear in the Provisional Government. It should have been, according to the idea of a velvet revolutionary, to hold new elections to the National Assembly. And the army will control the new elections.
So, spring came with Kadri to Pakistan.
The attacks in Quetta, which claimed dozens of lives, gave a new impetus to the activities of the famous theologian. As Alexander Dudchak writes ("Geopolitics"), the Pakistani “revolutionary” events are different from the majority of the coups in the “Arab spring” in that their organizers do not at all try to present them with elemental outrage of the people.
13 January in Lahore - the capital of the province of Punjab - began the march, preceded by prayer. After it, 6-7 thousands of people sat in two hundred prepared buses and 150 cars. These promoters drove about 300 kilometers. The column was followed by three tanks with fuel, special vehicles to eliminate possible obstacles on the road, cars with food for participants and gas equipment for its preparation, toilets and bedding. This column of the former professor was happily greeted by the locals. They sprinkled the road with rose petals.
In a matter of days, the “revolutionary” movement of the Canadian theologian suddenly gained wide popularity. Among the reasons for the rapid growth in popularity of Kadri, the analyst notes a noisy advertising campaign, which was carried out with the help of the organizational resource of the opposition. The revolution, being carried to the people by Mr. Kadri, was called "green, popular, peaceful."
This theologian, says Lyubov Lyulko (Pravda.ru), On January 14 at the head of the so-called “march of millions” (50.000 people were able to assemble in total) arrived in Islamabad - on the street where government offices are located. And he said: “I give the government a deadline until tomorrow to dissolve the federal parliament and the provincial assemblies. After that, the masses will take responsibility for themselves. "
Qadri and his loyal demonstrators swore on the Koran that they would remain in Islamabad until the complete victory of the revolution.
Federal Minister of Information and Broadcasting, Kamar Zaman Kariya, responded that Kadri’s demands were unconstitutional. The inclusion of the army and the judiciary in the consultation process on the establishment of the Provisional Government is not provided for in the Constitution. “The time has passed when a foreigner could rule the country,” said Karia.
And Kadri on this noticed: “We don’t have a parliament - there is a gang of robbers, thieves and marauders. Our legislators are lawbreakers. ”
It should be noted that the protests at government buildings passed without incident. Participants of the "march of millions" set up tents near police fences. Brought mobile tents and toilets were installed near the canvas tents. Participants of the “march” sang and danced, rejoicing that “spring” finally came to their country.
At this peaceful rally (it’s hard to say how peaceful it is, because there are messages in the media about shooting from the parliament - it’s not possible to check them; the western press only knows that, before starting his fervent speech, Kadri himself climbed inside a cargo container with bullet-proof glass) it was announced that the Supreme Court had decided to remove from office the corrupt official Raja Pervez Ashraf, followed by another fifteen high-ranking officials, observer notes "Centuries" Andrei Pravov. This suggests that the Supreme Court supports the main demand of the protesters.
However, Ashraf denies all accusations (usual corruption in Pakistan). On the fifth day of the rally, the authorities agreed with a Canadian citizen, and the protest was phased out. The authorities have promised that parliamentary elections will be held in accordance with the constitution and in time. In the meantime, a transitional government will be formed in the country that will suit all political forces. So ended the "march of millions." There is information that January 17 Tahir Kadri signed an agreement with the government, which Prime Minister Ashraf allegedly pushed.
The speed with which the theologian, who arrived from Canada, managed to organize a protest rally of many thousands, shows that the situation in Pakistan has reached a boiling point, and boiling water is about to spill over the edge of the pan.
That is why, according to A. Pravov, the calls of the theologian for the eradication of the “feudal corruption system” and the conduct of the “democratic revolution” have fallen on well-fertilized soil. No doubt, the seeds of the economic crisis will also grow. There are interruptions in electricity and gasoline in the country. And this - not to mention the constant bloody "friction" between the Sunni and Shiite communities of Pakistan.
Who is behind the Canadian theologian? It may well be - the military: after all, Tahir Kadri had no reason to say about the “control of the army” at the elections. In addition, the “march of millions” was highly appreciated by General Pervez Musharraf. The media are circulating persistent rumors that the military and finance the actions of a fiery fighter against corruption and government theft. It should be noted here that in the 1999 year, a theologian who at that time lived in his homeland, and who did not even think of distant Canada, supported Pervez Musharraf’s revolt. A few years later, however, these two disagreed on the methods of controlling the people, and Kadri had to leave his homeland.
There is another version of what is happening. The Canadian Islamist theologian received money to organize a pre-prepared “march of millions” in the United States. Why does the State Department need this? From the point of view of Washington, the “green” revolutionary helps the military to return to power in Islamabad, and those will help the command of the “anti-terrorist coalition” to improve relations with the Taliban in Afghanistan. The US is interested in establishing order in Pakistan on the eve of the upcoming withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. And here they will help local people in the form. It is necessary only to arrange so that they took power.
Thus, if the “Arab Spring” in Pakistan is not funded by Musharraf’s team, then its treasury is in the US Department of State.
However, the economic crisis in the United States, recently recorded a budget sequestration for 85 billion dollars, as well as the extremely low probability that Washington will start raking nuclear Pakistan before the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, do not leave a stone unturned from this version. In the end, it is impossible to believe that the making of the “spring” simply became a bad habit of the State Department. In addition, the Kadri organization is rich enough and is known for successfully finding money for the needs of Islam. For example, in the same democratic Canada, the ex-professor raised funds for the needs of the Islamic community of Pakistan.
Most likely, those who think that the military stand behind Kadri are right. First, immediately after the "march of millions" followed by a statement by Pervez Musharraf about the support of the theologian. Secondly, the general said that he was about to return to his native Pakistan. He, who has been living in London since 2008, was interviewed "BBC"in which he said that he was going to return home and "help his party" during the elections in May of this year. And this is despite the fact that Pakistan’s law enforcement agencies are seeking the arrest of Musharraf, suspected of involvement in the assassination of Benazir Bhutto (the wife of former President Asif Ali Zardari was the prime minister of the country).
German specialist on Asia Günther Knabe back in January expressed confidence that the Tahir Kadri movement was inspired by the military, who recently began to lose influence on political life. Through the mouth of an Islamic theologian agitating the masses against the government, the military plans to thwart regular elections and disrupt the constitutional process. There will be a coup, the German expert believes. The sooner the better for the military. They favor extraordinary elections, the creation of a "transitional government". Knabe finds the real revolutionary scenario in Pakistan unlikely. He predicts that the government will delay negotiations with the Canadian and wait for the recession of the protests.
Meanwhile, Pervez Musharraf kept his word: he back to Pakistan. His plane landed in Karachi on the morning of March 24. He is really going to take part in the general elections to the National Assembly, which will be held in the country 11 May. Shortly before his arrival, another terrorist attack occurred in North Waziristan, as a result of which 17 people died. Taking advantage of the situation, Musharraf said that "we must crush terrorism and extremism." In response, the Taliban threatened to kill Musharraf and reported that they had already prepared for the killing of suicide militants.
Musharraf was generally accepted unkindly: on March 31, the ex-president near the court building was subjected to a humiliating attack by lawyers. One of them threw in it a boot. True, he did not reach the former president, who was surrounded by guards and reporters. The attacker was among twenty lawyers who had earlier staged a protest rally under the slogan "Musharraf is a dictator and should be hanged."
29 March Supreme Court of Sindh Province in Pakistan approved extension of the pledge in relation to the ex-President of the country Pervez Musharraf. His name today appears in three court cases: the murder of Benazir Bhutto in 2007, the death of the tribal elder as a result of the military operation in 2006, and the restriction of the movement of several judges in 2007. According to Pakistani press reports, the court extended the bail for the last two cases of the ex-president for 15 days, and for the Bhutto murder case - for 21 day.
According to a study conducted in March by the Heinrich Böll Foundation, 29% of Pakistani voters intend to to support the election of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), and 25% to support the Nawaz Sharif party (Pakistan Muslim League). Another 20% would have voted for Imran Khan's PTI (“Justice Movement”).
PPP, Pakistan’s largest party, is led by Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari. The ideology of the party can be described as social-democratic, it has traditionally advocated the provision of large-scale government assistance to the poor and the strengthening of relations with China. President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Ashraf, however, have been constantly criticized for alleged involvement in corruption, ignoring the country's problems and the inability to curb terrorism.
An important participant in the upcoming elections is the Tehrik-e-Insaf party (Justice Movement, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, PTI). It positions itself as a counterweight to the main traditional parties and as a force uniting all Pakistanis - regardless of ethnic or religious affiliation. PTI stands for a comprehensive modernization of the country according to the model of the Islamic welfare state, against corruption, religious and ethnic strife.
The Pakistan Muslim League (the Pakistan Muslim League, also referred to as the All-Pakistan Muslim League) is headed by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The party is in favor of improving relations with the United States, the European Union and India. At present, the party is positioning itself as a counterbalance to the corrupt establishment.
Columnist "Kommersant" Sergey Tamilin, referring to an anonymous source from Islamabad, writes that the return of General Musharraf will exacerbate the intrigue of Pakistani politics, which grows nostalgia for the “strong hand” against the background of the falling popularity of the current civilian government. Extreme corruption and growing conflict between various branches of government have undermined the authority of the civilian government of President Zardari. A source in the Kommersant newspaper believes that the All-Pakistan Muslim League, led by Musharraf, has every chance of forming an influential faction in parliament.
In this case, the London exile will once again become one of the leading players in Pakistani politics. Thus, the figure of Kadri with his statements about the army for a reason arose on the Pakistani political horizon.
Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru