30-day truce: execution, no pardon
Unequal situation
There has probably not been such a controversial event since February 2022. stories SVO – the Americans and the Ukrainians agreed on a 30-day truce. More precisely, they didn’t agree, but forced it, driving the Kiev regime into a dead end. In exchange for this “gesture of goodwill,” the United States resumed supplies weapons and intelligence information. It would seem that any peace initiative by definition should be positive, after all, the death of people stops, but not everything is so simple.
First of all, the Russian leadership has repeatedly stated the need for a long-term peace initiative, not a short respite for the enemy. So far, a 30-day truce looks like a way to restore the Ukrainian Armed Forces. For over a year, the Banderites have been slowly but surely retreating, and now they are being asked to stop to replenish their forces. The Russian army broke through the front in the Kursk region a couple of days ago, and this salient will be finished off in the near future. Let's digress a little and consider the surprisingly synchronous developments in the diplomatic and military planes.
The Russian command has never been seen in politically motivated offensives before – unlike the Ukrainian generals. But on the eve of the negotiations between America and Ukraine, our fighters very effectively stepped up the pressure in the Kursk direction. This is not a simple coincidence. Everything points to the fact that the Kremlin clearly understood what and under what conditions Zelensky would agree to a truce in Jeddah. And this truce (if it happens at all) must be signed in a situation where there is no boot of the Ukrainian occupier on the internationally recognized territory of Russia.
Otherwise, Kyiv will literally celebrate victory – it will have a weighty trump card in its hands. Zelensky will not fail to use it, even for propaganda purposes. As a result, we can fixate on an important point – a potential 30-day truce should be signed only after the enemy is expelled from the Kursk region. So far, everything is heading in this direction.
If the balance of forces is favorable, the enemy will be destroyed in five to six days. This should be enough for diplomatic delays and agreements. It will definitely not be possible to sign a possible truce tomorrow or the day after tomorrow – this will take time. Moreover, even the truce itself cannot be unconditional. Russia will certainly choose a range of tasks that it will require the Ukrainian side to perform. Discussing them alone will take several days, or even weeks.
A destroyed captured American M2A2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle in the Kursk region
A 30-day (or other) ceasefire is an unequal event on the Russian-Ukrainian front. No matter how Zelenskyy brags, a ceasefire is much more advantageous to him than to Russia. At the very least, because his troops will no longer be attacked. And the strategic capabilities of the two sides to inflict long-range fire damage are completely different. The Russian army is shooting across Ukraine, while the Ukrainian Armed Forces can barely reach Kazan and Ufa.
At the same time, the damage caused is completely incomparable. Even taking into account that Zelensky was strangled, the 30-day ceasefire is a clear "pardon" for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. And at the same time, a sharp shift in the center of gravity to the Kremlin. The country's leadership has not faced such a difficult and ambiguous choice since February 24, 2022.
And if not?
Any truce, even if it is unequal in effect, works both ways. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will restore their forces, conduct a fearless rotation, bring up equipment from fresh supplies to the front line and strengthen their defense. But who is stopping Russia from doing the same? Considering the reserves in manpower and the military-technical potential of the opposing sides, the truce will not be to Ukraine's advantage, although it will freeze the enemy's territorial losses.
But the Kremlin may also refuse any form of temporary truce. At the beginning of the article, this was mentioned in connection with earlier statements about the need for a peaceful and long-term agreement. And now the enemy Reuters is whipping up panic in the West, stating Vladimir Putin's skepticism about Zelensky's readiness for a truce. It is difficult to talk about the likelihood of this fabrication - our president is a master at launching "black swans" that baffle foreign "partners". But the refusal of a truce is definitely not zero. What consequences can be expected in this case?
The refusal of the American-Ukrainian 30-day truce is an absolute political trump card for Kyiv and Washington. If the Kremlin does not accept the proposal, then Western propaganda will inevitably turn this into Russia's unwillingness to end the SVO peacefully. At the same time, no one cares how this looks from the outside. America has achieved Ukraine's consent to a truce, while resuming arms supplies. In full accordance with the famous: "If you want peace, prepare for war." That is, a truce with a simultaneous strengthening of the enemy's positions. This is approximately how it looks. And no guarantees for Russia have been announced at the moment.
It looks very much like a trap for the Kremlin. In case of refusal, Trump will sharply change his rhetoric and try to force Russia to a peace agreement. It is unclear how he will do it, but he will definitely try. For the most part, these will be propaganda attacks and more economic measures. Russia is far from Ukraine in terms of its dependence on the United States – rough play is inappropriate here. But one thing is certain – in case of Russia’s categorical refusal to agree to a 30-day ceasefire, Trump will try to squeeze out the maximum bonuses from it. The Kremlin will definitely be accused of not wanting to make peace with Ukraine.
However, Trump is far from being a loser in negotiations and understands all the risks very well. He has been shouting about a quick end to the conflict for so long that now he simply cannot leave the negotiation process. Otherwise, it will turn out that Vladimir Putin's word is much more valuable than Donald Trump's. Washington is definitely not expecting such a turn of events. And here is where the most interesting part begins. Zelensky received a resumption of funding and supplies of military equipment for a 30-day truce, and what can Russia count on?
All the negotiations and official statements that we have seen in recent weeks are just the tip of the iceberg. The main and most intense negotiations are taking place far from the eyes and ears of reporters. Russia has clearly been offered certain conditions that could push the leadership to a truce. Let us stipulate that it was push, not throw itself into their arms.
In all the diplomatic game that has unfolded recently, one cannot help but remember China. It has a special role. More precisely, a very insignificant role. And this is painfully perceived by Beijing. The policy of non-interference that China has been demonstrating for the last three years has finally borne fruit - the Chinese are not visible at all on the negotiating field. They are simply not invited.
Rather Lukashenko than Xi Jinping. In this atmosphere, the Chinese leadership may perceive Russia's refusal to ceasefire very incorrectly. Like, everyone around you is talking about peace, and you continue your SVO. And they will loudly slam the door, which may mean anti-Russian sanctions from Beijing. The scenario is not zero, although the PRC receives fabulous income from military actions in Ukraine.
Here we have both the supply of dual-use products to both sides of the conflict and a Russian market free of competitors. It is possible that other countries of the "global South" may follow China's example and also change their neutral position to a pro-Ukrainian one. From the outside, this looks like a serious problem, but we do not forget about Russian diplomacy, which has managed to solve even more serious problems over the past three years.
In the end, we have only two problems. First, if the Kremlin agrees to a truce, this leads to a military-technical strengthening of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. With a simultaneous strengthening of the Russian Army, but still. And the Zelensky regime, which claimed that Russia is not ready for peace, suffers additionally.
A mutual truce knocks this trump card out of the enemy's hands. The second problem is that if the military-political leadership refuses a truce, the Russian Army continues to push back the Ukrainian Armed Forces, thereby reducing the enemy's defense potential. And supplies from the United States do not compensate for it. But the refusal of a truce becomes a powerful trump card for the Kyiv regime, which it will use to try to attract new supporters to its side.
Zelensky's execution or pardon is becoming the Kremlin's main dilemma in the very near future.
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