Credit rating of Russia against the ratings of the BRICS countries and the republics of the former USSR
On March 28, Russian economists and other citizens indifferent to the economic upheavals of the Russian Federation expected News from the famous international rating agency Moody's. Due to the fact that in recent years all agencies with international rating ambitions, without exception, downgraded the countries of the world right and left, citing the instability of the financial system and the inability of most economies to cope with global crisis waves, the wait for news for Russia was painfully long. However, after the first words of Moody's experts became public, it became clear that representatives of the Russian economy could breathe easier. The fact is that the same Moody's experts confirmed the long-term credit rating of Russia, which corresponded and now also corresponds to the Baa1 level with a stable outlook. This symbol (Baa1) corresponds to the lower threshold of the world middle class of states that have a relatively low level of public debt and can service it without problems. They sighed a little relieved, but somewhere deep down they secretly hoped that Moody's would take, and would add one rating step to us. Not added ...In order to be with whom and how to compare, we give indicators of long-term credit ratings of some other states, which are also rated by experts from Moody's. For example, the Chinese indicator corresponds to the value of А1, which is 3 position higher than the rating of Russia. The Ukrainian rating indicator corresponds to the B3 level with a negative outlook. This is on the 8 steps lower than the Russian figure. But the credit rating of Cyprus is in the critical zone and corresponds to the Caa2 indicator with the same as Ukraine, with a negative outlook, which is lower than the Russian one already at 10 steps.
If we talk about which state from the republics of the former USSR Moody's gives the highest rating, then this is Estonia. The long-term credit rating of Estonia is marked at А1 (completely identical with the rating of the People's Republic of China), the second place is shared by Russia and Lithuania. At the same time, recently Moody's decided to withdraw the ratings of several states of the former Soviet Union at once, citing the lack of reliable information about the real state of the economy in these republics. This, in particular, is about Turkmenistan and Moldova.
It is worth considering the ratings, called Moody's for the BRICS countries. India's rating has grown to Baa3 (2 points lower than the Russian one). Brazil also stepped up the rating ladder: Baa2 (one step below the Russian one). But South Africa lost one point of the Moody's rating scale, on the basis of which it caught up with Russia, receiving an assessment of Baa1. It turns out that by BRICS Moody's rating looks like this (descending): China, Russia and South Africa, Brazil, India.
When Moody's experts who made up these credit ratings were asked why the Russian rating, despite its only 13% (relative to GDP) national debt, low-cost (1,5% of annual revenues) government debt service and 3,5% Growth of the economy is relatively low, then Moody's stated several reasons. First, it announced the continuing high level of corruption in the country. Secondly, Moody's experts express concern that in Russia the whole production areas remain without foreign investment. Third, the reason for the relatively low long-term credit rating is that Russia was unable to effectively take advantage of the economic potential that it managed to form on the eve of the economic crisis. There is one more point to which experts of rating agency pay attention. This point concerns the forecast of a decrease in the number of the working-age population of Russia in the medium and long term.
And if the first points are, indeed, naively contested, at least with a maxim that Russia expects, if not extinction, then a significant reduction in the population, it is hardly worth agreeing. Of course, it is impossible to say that in our country the demographic problem has been completely solved, but also to declare that in this respect there is a continuous negative - it is also wrong. I remember, about 6-7 years ago, the same world experts said that by 2014, the population of Russia would be reduced to 130 million people, and cities like Voronezh, Ufa and even St. Petersburg could lose up to a quarter of their population. However, these forecasts, fortunately, were not destined to come true, which gives reason to doubt the new forecasts about the demographic failure that awaits Russia in the near future.
If Russia has problems that prevent the country from developing at a more impressive pace, the main ones among them are large-scale corruption and often manifest internal disregard for the laws. Although there is food for thought.
Of course, no one is going to dispute the fact of the corruption schemes that have entangled the country and the potential target of the army for bribery. The question is different - in comparison. If we compare corruption activity in Russia, for example, with corruption activity in China, which today is significantly ahead of Russia in the Moody's rating, it is not a fact that the percentage of corruption in China is less than that of Russia. It seems that the Chinese principle of openness of the economy and closeness of the inner life works here, which creates some kind of illusion that everything in the Middle Kingdom with corruption is good. They steal in the PRC. Yes, they steal so much that over the past 10 years, around 10 thousands of officials of various levels of the bureaucracy have been executed in China, and moreover almost 20 thousands of officials have been sent to prison for long periods (up to 150 years). The scale of the struggle is truly impressive, but the whole trouble for China lies in the fact that the severe punishment of some corrupt officials does not lead to an understanding of their responsibility to the law by others. It turns out that some are shot and imprisoned, while others fill their places every year. From that, the average annual scale of corruption in the PRC over the last decade remains almost constant. Does it remain permanent in Russia? - This is a question that does not yet have an answer. Apparently, this gives Moody's reason to declare that the fight against corruption in China is better than in Russia, and therefore corruption does not affect the high rating there ... True, in this case it is better not to discuss the situation with the level of corruption in South Africa at all. which turned out to be equal to the Russian ...
So what does the Russian government need to do to raise the long-term credit rating of the Russian Federation, which in itself can bring such positive results as lower rates for servicing various types of debt? To say that it (the government) should fight against corruption is already somehow strange. After all, these conversations have been going on for years, but the result so far, frankly, is not visible. The rector, a town governor laid aside in the snow, a town governor dismissed from his job and a regional minister sent to jail for a couple of years - perhaps all the achievements in this direction are at a relatively high level ... And at other levels, I'm sorry, and the horse did not lie ...
Making the citizens respectful of the law. This, of course, is sensible. But only citizens, you understand, are waiting for examples from the representatives of the authorities themselves. Indeed, it often happens that a high-ranking official appeals to legality, and then suddenly it turns out that he has the stigma, what is called, a cannon. This official reveals that undeclared income and property, or even a passport of a foreign citizen. Here, as they say, you need to start with the head, then, you see, and civil liability will increase significantly.
Another opportunity to improve the economic rating as a related link to the recovery of the Russian economy is real investment in production. The country needs a new industrial revolution, about which the economy is only dreaming. And this is perhaps the only case of a revolution in Russia for which you can vote with both hands at once ...
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