Martin Gilman: Russia is not an economy set on an “oil needle”

WASHINGTON - “Oil revenues do not determine Russia's GDP,” said Martin Gilman during a lecture at Johns Hopkins University on Wednesday in Washington. The American economist who represented the IMF in Russia on 1996-2002, the author of the book Default, which could not have happened, now a professor at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, does not share the pessimistic predictions that the Russian economy "has entered a dead loop of low investment and massive outflow capital. "

Gilman cited this formulation by enumerating common myths about the Russian economy, which, in his opinion, require immediate debunking.

Acknowledging that the business climate in Russia is not the most favorable, Gilman stresses that the private sector in Russia is developing and remains dynamic.

“After the crisis, the Russian economy, to the surprise of many, began to flourish in many unexpected sectors - transport, banking, insurance and many others. This is the future of the Russian economy, ”Gilman believes.

The perception that the Russian economy is stagnant and will deteriorate, Gilman calls one of the common myths, no more.

“Since the crisis, the Russian economy has been demonstrating very good indicators,” the specialist said.

According to Gilman, who does not consider that everything in Russia is “tied to oil,” prices for this energy source should fall to 75 dollars and lower in order for it to have a negative impact on the Russian surplus.

“The Russian starting economic position was very good. They have a balanced budget, ”Golman said during his lecture, stressing several times that Russia’s greatest achievement is“ the lowest government debt ratio in the world. ”

Speaking about the problems of the Russian economy, Gilman stresses that capital outflow from Russia is a topic that deserves a separate discussion.

“Money is leaking because of a bad investment climate,” the economist stresses, noting that “if you compare Russia with other new markets of oil-exporting countries, it exports less capital than others”.

“When 30 percent of national capital is in savings, some of this money will inevitably leave the country,” says Martin Gilman.

He points out that Russia has very few “real economic barriers”, and the economy is quite open.

“Russia has been and remains a country with a relatively successful market economy. If there are any problems, then they lie in a political plane, ”sums up the American economist.

Comments

[click80]

when reading this article, the lines from the song immediately surfaced in my head:

Yes planet, in your face wonder
You cannot understand how it happened that we,
Instead of the proud banner of a strong power,
Got the label of the poorest country.
It's too early to put an end to this yet.
And look for our place in the back of the Earth.
We will rise from hell like a phoenix from the ashes
Because we are Russian!
(C) "Blue Berets"

[Alexey Prikazchikov]

Can you say the name of the song I want to find?

[Alexander]

"Eh, share" is the name of the song.

[Alexander]

And no, I'm lying, the song is called "Because we are Russian."

[click80]

The song "Because we are Russians".
Album "Eh share"
Ensemble Blue Berets

[Alexey Prikazchikov]

Thank you.

[Feanor]

They would better monitor their economy than ours, they themselves have a lot of land there and everyone is climbing to us.

[alexng]

The funny thing about all this hysteria about the outflow of capital from Russia, for some reason, "well-wishers" mainly attribute Russia's investments to other countries. This is a deliberate misrepresentation and today the actual capital outflow from Russia is much less than in other economically developed countries, i.e. the lowest. But the troll meat hawked this nonsense on the fly and scattered it where necessary and where not. Only sense and return from this mess is zero.

[S_mirnov]

Do not trust the enemies who praise us. So we do what they need! Have you recently convicted the State Department?
By the way, do not share the source of data on capital inflows into the Russian economy, I will honestly say that this is not consistent with my vision of the economic situation in our country, suddenly I am mistaken. I will be grateful.

[scrack]

Moreover, these investments are largely money earned through speculation on exchanges

[S_mirnov]

"capital outflow from Russia is much less than in other economically developed countries," - Outflow is an outflow. So where are these capitals flowing?
And by the outflow, we seem to be in a shitty position:
"" Investors continue to sell off Russian shares. During the week of March 21-27, capital outflow from funds investing in Russia reached almost $ 290 million. Investment funds lost 235 million dollars, another 54 million dollars left the Russian Federation through global funds of emerging markets. This is the largest loss at the country level, as well as for Russia itself since September 2011, "

[Alexey Prikazchikov]

That's why he works with us and monitors.

[Dangerous]

Well, the face of this Gilman

[Alexander Romanov]

Quote: Dangerous

Well, the face of this Gilman

Normal erysipelas, ordinary Jewish face

[Rebus]

Quote: Alexander Romanov

Normal erysipelas, ordinary Jewish face

Gilman’s national orientation was precisely determined ... Neither add nor diminish. As most representatives of this nationality speak incomprehensibly, on the one hand, everything is fine with us, and on the other, bad. His performance is more like an excuse and unwillingness to offend.

Acknowledging that the business climate in Russia is not the most favorable, Gilman stresses that the private sector in Russia is developing and remains dynamic.

And at the end of the speech, he curtsies in the direction of fighters against totalitarian power in Russia:

“Russia has been and remains a country with a relatively successful market economy. If there are any problems, then they lie in a political plane, ”sums up the American economist.

All in all, this Gilman is an opportunist.

[Dmitry_2013]

For what he was paid, he said

[voichuk2010]

That's for sure!

[Ascetic]

“Russia has been and remains a country with a relatively successful market economy. If there are any problems, then they lie in a political plane, ”sums up the American economist.

In Russia, everything is fine, only power and politics need to be changed. And then market mechanisms will lead us to prosperity. First of all, as he says

“After the crisis, the Russian economy, to the surprise of many, began to flourish in many unexpected sectors - transport, banking, insurance and many others. That is what is the future of the Russian economy»

That is, in those sectors that not related to the development of own production and which are completely dependent on the speculative banking sector tied to the Fed.
That's what the Gilmans and others want to see Russia ..

[luka095]

Dear Ascetic. Gilman’s performance is, in general, not bad. Good,
when an imported professor over the hill says something positive about Russia. Maybe someone will hear it there.
As for the rest, he also works at the Higher School of Economics, our national liberal "fortress". Therefore, naturally, the power in Russia is not what the West needs. Well, and it is necessary to develop, in their opinion, in those industries that in fact serve Western interests in Russia ...

[baltika-18]

[quote = Ascetic] “After the crisis, the Russian economy, to the surprise of many, began to flourish in many unexpected sectors - transport, banking, insurance, and many others. That is what is the future of the Russian economy ”[/ quote [quote = Ascetic] about is in those sectors that are not related to the development of own production [/ quote]
Ascetic agree, but add the following.
Gilman says the economy is not seated on an oil needle.
Our needle is very heterogeneous: oil, gas, nickel, titanium, aluminum, steel, coal and wood.
Here is the basic structure of our exports, and mostly semi-finished products.
The forest is mostly round, aluminum ingots and all that.
Screwdriver assemblies that thrive, their products are directed to our domestic market.
In addition to weapons, raw materials and semi-finished raw materials, we do not export anything.
This is beneficial to everyone except us, so faces like Gilman will praise our economy.

[kontrol]

it seems to me that if in Japan there was everything that we have-oil, gas, etc., etc., then they would not bother too much, as well as we were trading resources. And any other country would do the same, look around, everyone sells what they have and no one is engaged in criticism. one day we are fond of self-flagellation. even not funny already

[smile]

kontrol
I absolutely agree - they all trade in resources as far as possible and maximally deriving profit from it. And yelling about the oil needle is especially strong when they once again fail to take control of our oil and gas trade ... by the way, the price of oil during the collapse of the Union was about the same as during the transfer of power from Elbon to Poo. Moreover, at Pu, all resources were no longer under state control .... so that it would be time to really stop scourging ourselves after another valuable market comment from our potential friends .... :))))

[Tverichanka]

Quote: smile

at Pu

Sorry, of course, but do you think that you should at least show elementary respect for the president of your country? Well, this expression does not honor anyone. Especially in the public space. If we are on a patriotic site, please use such expressions .... Regards and again, sorry ...

[smile]

Tverichanka
To blame. I will be corrected. It’s you who excuse me. It is gratifying that such a remark appeared. But it’s a pity that one thing. +

[Tverichanka]

Quote: baltika-18

we do not export anything.

But don’t you want to remember what China started in the early 70s? What did they export? And don’t forget that China didn’t bring down how it happened to us. Think better, we had to start after something. At least even with screwdriver production. I hope you don’t believe in the bike that the rest of the world needs a strong and prosperous Russia? If you do not believe it, you should know that we don’t and will not get any help in acquiring new technologies. to produce, you need to have demand and markets for your products. How much did the country simply faint after the collapse of the USSR? And the world did not stand still, developed .... So do not look so gloomy at all. Even if it seems that everything is not as fast as we all would like.

[Patriot.ru.]

Plus space aircraft, aircraft, and then banks

[S_mirnov]

"Everything is fine in Russia, only the power and politics need to be changed. And then market mechanisms will lead us to prosperity. First of all, as he says," market mechanisms, like open borders, are destructive for our economy! Our economy reached its greatest prosperity with planned government and an inconvertible ruble, which excludes the possibility of an outflow of capital abroad (here, of course, it is also important who is at the head of the country).
"That is, in those sectors that are not associated with the development of their own production" - and here to the very point! We are being praised for the destruction of Russian science, production and heavy industry!

[Fregate]

I am not a professor in economics, but somehow it is alarming when banks, insurance companies, etc. start to flourish. etc., that is, those who do not produce anything. But I do not deny their need.

[djon3volta]

Quote: Fregate

but somehow alarming when banks begin to prosper

because even having 1 million rubles, you can put it in the bank at 1-2% and go to withdraw once a month 10-20 thousand rubles and not work in principle. And if you put 10 million, even at least taking into account the monthly withdrawal of interest? why work? Many people make surplus money from someone, they just don’t say it openly and don’t advertise on the Internet, they’re embarrassed

[Dmitry_2013]

Do not forget about inflation! Money should work, banks do not give adequate interest, this must be taken into account.
In 10 years this million will lose weight significantly and will cease to be a source of generating livelihoods.

[Alexey Prikazchikov]

do not advertise, shy

We have such, and a lot, unfortunately. I know two of these "millionaires" their mother.

[Kaa]

Instead of the idea voiced by DAM about offshore in the Far East, it might be worthwhile to agree on the export of capital, which is still hidden in the shadows, to the companies of the BRICS countries - South Africa, Brazil, then they will partly work for the owners and for the overall (in the long term) BRICS economy , and legally, in the form of taxes - on the economy (budget) of Russia, in any case, it will be under control.

[120352]

In Gilman's phrase, only half is true, namely: "Russia is not an economy." Alas, he's right.

[Zlyden.Zlo]

Sorry but it's true ,,,,

[smile]

120352
And what, in your understanding, is the economy only where the exchange of cut paper painted in green with unsecured paper for resources? This giant pyramid, built including the use of military force? And here we are, orphaned and wretched, everything is wrong with us uuuuuuuuu, it's time to repent ..... Nobody says that everything is normal with the economy and nothing needs to be changed - just as it should ... But really, you like it that way pour the slops on yourself? Tell me, why do you need this? Why do you need to repeat what our potential friends hamper us - everything is bad with us, the further, the worse, we need to reform further, use our resources together with the world community, which we are not able to properly manage, we need to destroy the power vertical. to decentralize the governance of Russia? I really do not understand, making such statements about what you think?

[Tverichanka]

Quote: 120352

". Alas, he is right

Yes, not a bit wrong! Not familiar with the site - "Made by us"? Well, take an interest. And you will be surprised that we have an economy ... So, personally, you don't work? And the men of my family do not work as watchmen or salesmen .... So everyone sees what he wants to see ....

[djon3volta]

and what is the economy of the UAE, Qatar, Venezuela, Iran, Norway and so on? simple the question is why do countries producing hydrocarbons sell their resources? I'm not talking about Russia now, I specifically I ask a provocative question! I and you know very well why other countries sell their resources and are also raw materials appendages of other countries !!!

[stalkerwalker]

Quote: djon3volta

and what is the economy of the UAE, Qatar, Venezuela, Iran, Norway

For the rich Norwegians, I will say a word ...
STATOIL is the only company in the country engaged in the development and production of hydrocarbons. It is under TIGHT control of the state.
The Norwegians are well aware that the "oil industry" is not eternal and unstable as a source of income, and they are "mentally prepared" to return to the "pre-oil" period in accordance with their northern mentality, not forgetting to simultaneously develop the pre-oil industries, creating new ones along the way.
These tough guys did not cry when in 60 and 70 they paid taxes for every TV in the house, and now they try to work even when they are retired (for men, after 65).

[Tverichanka]

Quote: stalkerwalker

For the rich Norwegians I will say a word.

But don’t you tell me why they got rich? Not at the time when they found gas and began to sell it? And how did you live before? Tell yourself, you paid a tax for every TV. Didn’t the state have taxed TVs from a good life?

[tornado]

5 countries, raw materials appendages, you are still drawing Russia. Let them remain appendages and live off the resources; Russia needs a different economic model.

[Predator-74]

Quote: Fregate

I am not a professor in economics, but somehow it is alarming when banks, insurance companies, etc. start to flourish. etc., that is, those who do not produce anything. But I do not deny their need.

This is, in principle, not bad, because First of all, before the growth of the real sector of the economy, a "bank reserve" is needed so that the same production workers can take short and long loans for development. The question is different, in controlling the activities of the accumulators of financial resources and how to direct them in the right direction.

[valokordin]

Again Americans praises us, so we are not doing very well. Yesterday I heard the opinion of Khinshtein and Pochinok in a duel, I came to the conclusion that it was with EBNe and now, in principle, the system has not changed. Everything is built on personal interest, that is, on theft. The market economy in Russia is the economy of the robbery of one’s own people, although sprouts of state regulation are visible. Power is completely dependent on the oligarchs and foreign capital, so it physically cannot act like the Chinese and has no decisiveness. If we don’t sit on an oil and gas needle, then on which, not really narcotic? We don’t need to hang noodles for us, but as we got this Gilman, probably his friend Chubais drinks coffee with him.

[tornado]

By your logic, if he says that you are the most crazy person, should I continue to call you a dumbass and a moron? I will consider ...

[Tverichanka]

Quote: valokordin

Hinstein’s opinion and Fix,

Are these citizens the ultimate truth? Well, I beg you ..... They scold us over the hill, start whining- "That's how bad everything is with us," praise-the same thing. Decide somehow .... Or you Didn't they find a real robbery when there were no pensions or salaries for 7-8 months? But how can you compare?

[evgenii67]

Quote: djon3volta

and what is the economy of the UAE, Qatar, Venezuela, Iran, Norway, etc.

sailed, a comparison with the UAE, Qatar, Venezuela, Iran, Norway and so on. At the moment, Russia, apart from resources to the foreign market, is not able to supply (add to this the supply of weapons, THANKS to the USSR, that there were still production capacities and personnel trained in the Union, unfortunately, the majority in pre-retirement age , and you say economics)

[djon3volta]

so answer to specific question, which you yourself have been celebrating! or I’ll ask a friend a question - why do these countries sell their resources?

[scrack]

The main resource of any country is human. At the expense of him the country is held

[evgenii67]

They have nothing more to sell, and pushing resources is the simplest and most profitable, not only for the state, but also for the PEOPLE, Russia is not included in this list, only the so-called ELITE becomes richer from the sale of resources

[zvereok]

Yeah .. In the banking business, we have a good oooh ... Well, it should be bad in the banking business, when the FSB leaders and other officials are sitting on the boards and directors of VTB, Gazprom banks and others.

Here is a list of the quarries of some offspring:
http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/photogallery/98401

[optimist]

Everything is correct. This was the "genius" plan of the West in the 80s, when the USSR was destroyed. Those. introduce a market economy and bring thieves and bandits to power, who will trade national wealth according to the rules proposed by the West and keep their "bsdl.o" in check so that they do not riot. Why fight the Russians? Look, they'll drop another vigorous bomb! And so: they brought to power "their son of a bitch" - and all hurt yourself !!!

[Tverichanka]

Quote: optimist

You look, they’ll drop another vigorous bomb!

But wouldn't it be more logical then, in the 90s, to take this bomb along with all the other goodies from us? Then, in general, would you have to be afraid of nothing? And if you didn’t give the bomb away, then who didn’t give it away? who couldn’t give up? And did they have real powers for this? Otherwise, who would listen to them ... And if there were such people, they still exist !!!!!! They understand (apparently, except You), that we were deliberately and systematically weakened for a long, long time and you won’t build up power at once. It’s like with a sick person. You need time to recover. And what seems to you long (due to the brevity of our existence), for the country and history a very short period of time ...

[tan0472]

When a worker in Russia in an hour will produce products for the same amount as a worker in developed countries, then it will be possible to say - "Russia is not an economy hooked on an" oil needle. " In the meantime, most of the income comes from the sale of raw materials, not production.

[Gregazov]

You say that a worker in Russia works less than, for example, in Sweden? I strongly disagree with you. The worker works much more. However, he feeds a bunch of managers, and mechanization with automation wants to be the best.
But the problem in my opinion is not at all that. Fundamental state policy on the collapse of school education brings the expected success. There is no one to teach our children.
Children unlearned at school go to universities, where they can no longer teach them anything for money or without money.
Soon we will also dig wells for oil with a shovel.

[pinecone]

We should not forget that comrade Gilman-Gelman settled down near a good feeding trough in the capital of the Russian Federation, and he would have said otherwise, he would not have been kept here.

[pinecone]

Quote: tan0472

That's when a worker in Russia will produce products in an hour for the same amount as a worker in developed countries

In the "developed countries", the number of workers "producing products" is decreasing every year. The idea of ​​the so-called. "post-industrial society" and industrial production is taken out of their limits.
For example, in 2011. US manufacturing accounted for only 12.2% of total GDP. , while for all sorts of services 79.6%.
By the way, since the so-called "service sector" also includes telephone communications, a very simple way to improve the indicators of economic growth could be a call from the authorities to the citizens of the Russian Federation to talk on their mobile phones for at least 2 hours a day. More is possible. I give this idea to Comrade Gilman. Let him advise who should be to move away from the oil needle. ..

[Mr.Net]

Quote: djon3volta

so answer to specific question, which you yourself have been celebrating! or I’ll ask a friend a question - why do these countries sell their resources?

Apparently because they have them. And they don’t need anything else. Have you ever
heard about "Qatari scientists" or about a satellite that was assembled in the Saudi
Arabia ??? And do not hear, because it is not necessary if there is oil, everything can be bought.
At the same time, the people live in the Middle Ages. Do you want such a path for Russia ??

[Tverichanka]

Quote: mr.Net

At the same time, the people live in the Middle Ages.

Well, we don’t follow this path, right? And we are engaged in space. Today we have docked on new principles. There is a reason to rejoice in the successes of our country .... And then I see, many "patriots" gathered on the site are busy exclusively with blaming everything in Russia. Well, everything is bad ... well, just everything ...

[Drugar]

The opinion of a single person is one thing. And the objective situation is completely different. Even now, in the news about the economic "successes" of our government, one can learn about the 300 billion budget deficit, and half of all Putin's election promises have not been fulfilled, who, by the way, in his speeches already speaks about oil and gas surplus profits, as about a temporary phenomenon that can stop. In general, I think that the fall in oil prices is a blessing for Russia, because all Putin's friends and comrades will immediately be sucked from her body, and maybe he himself will retire.

[cosmos111]

Russia sits tightly on the oil needle and this is a fact. But the matter is different. To whom it is profitable. And it is beneficial to these gentlemen with the US Federal Reserve controlled by the Zionist lobby. Rothschilds.

[honest jew]

National Business, USA, 1953

“... if the growth rate of production in Stalinist Russia continues, then by 1970 the volume of Russian production would be 3-4 times higher than the American one. And if this happens, the consequences for Western countries, especially for the United States, will be more than formidable. ”
Stevenson, US Presidential Candidate

If Stalin survived to this day and continued to lead the state, then we would now be the richest country in the world. Moreover, the United States and Europe would not even be near.
That is why many politicians in the West do not like Stalin so much and are so afraid of His return

[honest jew]

“... in terms of the growth rate of economic power, the USSR is ahead of any country. Moreover, the growth rate in the USSR is 2-3 times higher than in the USA. ”
National Business, USA, 1953

“... if the growth rate of production in Stalinist Russia continues, then by 1970 the volume of Russian production would be 3-4 times higher than the American one. And if this happens, the consequences for Western countries, especially for the United States, will be more than formidable. ”
Stevenson, US Presidential Candidate

If Stalin survived to this day and continued to lead the state, then we would now be the richest country in the world. Moreover, the United States and Europe would not even be near.
That is why many politicians in the West do not like Stalin so much and are so afraid of His return

[honest jew]

At the end of the existence of the USSR, not everyone understood how the planning system created by Stalin functions. They are now trying to present her as an administrative monster, in which everything and everyone was planned. However, this is not so much.
“In the Soviet planning system, rigid planning essentially never existed, although much has been written about it. In the capitalist system, they constantly talk about the market element, but in business practices they follow accurate planning, and in everything, including prices, salaries, consumption of materials, promotion of goods on the market, etc. ” [2]

How amazing, right? And what did they say to us in “perestroika”? What is our system - a monster, unable to rebuild due to its rigidity? Anyone who has ever worked in foreign corporations knows how much more rigid they are than the Soviet system in administrative terms, the screw man there has practically no freedom and initiative. Not to mention their inhumanity, omnipotence of corporate bureaucracy, groveling before the authorities, which is unthinkable in the USSR. But this is not the point - planning in the USSR, of course, was, but it was incomparably more flexible and effective than in the West. So it’s not a matter of stupidly following the instructions of the authorities at any cost, but in something else. Judging by the results of Industrialization, the Soviet Economic Miracle, planning was put in place during Stalin's time better than anyone else in the world, both before and after.

The meaning of Stalinist planning was to combine long-term plans from several decades to the Future Plans (10-15 years) and plans for the near future - the so-called. "Five-year plans." On the basis of such general directions, long-term Programs (Projects) were built, for example, the Space Program or the Atomic Program (Project), which were gigantic projects designed for decades. Such long-term programs provided additional strength and flexibility to the entire system, as if “stitching” five-year plans.

[Krapovy32]

It is necessary to develop our production, and not to equal the west.

[APASUS]

And why did he decide so? We do not just sit on an oil needle, we just can’t live without we cannot !!!

Moscow. January 14, 2012 OilCapital.ru. Oil and gas revenues of the federal budget of Russia in 2011 amounted to 5,6 trillion rubles. As the press service of the Russian government reports, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said this during a meeting of the Presidium of the highest executive authority. This represents about half of all budget revenues.

[Zlyden.Zlo]

Imagine that tomorrow the price of oil fell 10 times. Do you smoke the price of gas with us will fall 10 times?

[sashka]

Judging by the photo they themselves are ridiculous from their words .. And on what then "sits" Russia ..? Maybe he just sits ... and it is not known what ...

[fenix57]

Quote: valokordin

Again Americans praises us, so we are not doing very well.

I wanted to write the same thing. That's when they start to "scold" or what kind of hysteria from amers, we are going the right course; when the praise from the US economist is alarming. It's better to let it be calmer and more familiar ...

[Danash I]

lying. and doesn’t blush. all is well beautiful marquise!

[darksoul]

I looked at the title of the article and at these nasty faces in the photo, I did not read