Is the West really saving Kyiv? Or is Ukraine just a "chessboard" for the games of "big people"
This is not the first time I have fallen into the same "cow patty". Material written "out of line" with other similar ones automatically raises many questions from readers, and they, in turn, force the author to write a sequel. This is what happened this time.
We'll have to start from afar. From those very "nobody knows what" negotiations in Riyadh. Remember your own joy that the negotiations began between the "great powers" without the participation of any European "monsters" and Ukraine? Remember the panic that reigned in European capitals and in Kyiv at that time.
But what actually happened? Did Trump and Putin really decide to "play" together? If so, will they be able to achieve real results in such negotiations? The questions seem simple, and the answers to them are obvious. Two leaders capable of stopping the war... But is that so? Did the bilateral negotiations really have such a goal?
A very dubious conclusion. We should look not "far into the distance", but "under our feet". The negotiations had a specific goal, which is being realized today. Both Washington and Moscow, first of all, need to restore the very platform for communication. Restore normal diplomatic relations. Restore the work of embassies and consulates.
I think that the participation of additional "parties" would only lead to delays in decisions even on the above-mentioned issues. And what about the issue of Ukraine? Here, alas, to the chagrin of many readers, we cannot do without Kyiv. No matter what ways the Russian Federation and the United States develop to stop the war, Kyiv always has the option of simply rejecting these options.
Moreover, I will not be afraid to say a seditious thought, which I have already voiced in one of the articles. If Russia does not fully fulfill the tasks set before the army at the beginning of the Central Military District, any peace, no matter what conditions it is based on, will become just a truce. I cannot say the duration of this truce, but it is not difficult to predict that it will end in a new war.
There is another problem that many analysts have already voiced. We greatly overestimate the importance of American supplies to Ukraine. Now the US has frozen supplies, and what happened? Has the front collapsed? Are the Ukrainian Armed Forces fleeing in all directions? Has the frontline stopped receiving equipment, weapons, and ammunition?
Unfortunately, none of this is happening. Firstly, the supplies were on such a scale that they will be enough for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to actively resist for several more months. And Europe will make every effort to purchase weapons in third countries. There is enough money in Europe. The only problem that the US can really create for the Ukrainian Armed Forces today is intelligence and communications. The collapse of Starlink will greatly affect the combat capability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. But, according to some information, Kyiv is already actively looking for a replacement for this system...
So in the short term, Ukraine may well wage war in the same mode as today. And this means more difficult tasks for the Russian army. It is necessary to speed up the liberation of the Kursk region. It is necessary to resolve issues in Novorossiya. It is necessary to take Kharkov, Nikolaev and Odessa…
Well, and probably the last thing that characterizes the situation in international relations today. In order for negotiations to be successful, it is necessary for there to be... trust between the negotiators! Yes, simple trust. Alas, which none of the possible parties to these negotiations have. Just as there is no desire to compromise. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv are going to reduce their demands on the enemy...
"A Loophole in the Fence" to Bypass Article 5 of the Treaty
Zelensky dreams of Ukraine joining NATO. The leaders of Russia, the US and some member countries of the alliance, on the contrary, do not see Ukraine in the alliance. Membership itself is seen as a kind of bonus for Kyiv for winning the war with Russia. And there are problems with victory... So the dream of many Ukrainians remains a dream. And in connection with the situation on the fronts, it is becoming a chimera.
But the question arises whether Kyiv needs this membership in the near future? In the future, no one denies the possibility of joining, but what about today? Are there "loopholes in the fence"? Why loopholes and not gates? Simply because in the event of their implementation, the West provides almost the same guarantees as Article 5 of the Treaty, but does not enter into direct confrontation with Russia!
How many years has Russia been watching peaceful cities and towns in Donbass being destroyed? I have been asked many times: "Why?" I believe one of the reasons for this behavior is precisely this loophole. We knew very well about the Ukrainian Armed Forces being armed with Western weapons weaponsWe knew about the work of Western instructors. We knew about almost all the actions of the West.
But the state of our economy, our army, and the reaction of society to the military actions against the "brotherly people" prevented us from providing open assistance to Donbass. Let's add here the "vague" position of the residents of Donbass, who advocated completely different continuations stories region. But most importantly, add the power of NATO, which has become the main beneficiary of the militarization of Ukraine.
It worked for eight years. And it would have continued to work if Zelensky had not decided to finish off Donbass with one blow at the beginning of 2022. Remember the massive shelling of Donetsk, when people were forced to flee to Russia, which began on February 17? The question became urgent. Either the LPR and DPR will disappear and many of the citizens of these republics will be repressed, or Donetsk and Lugansk need to decide on the future.
I think there will be a critic now who will declare such conclusions controversial. "Everything is much simpler!" Of course it is simpler. The passengers of the Titanic probably also admired the beautiful iceberg floating nearby. Until the moment when they realized that they were seeing not even half, but a small part of this killer ice floe. But it was too late. In the case of Donbass, we managed to save the "crew and passengers".
If anyone thinks that it doesn't work that way, I suggest you surf the Internet and read the Treaty between the US and Taiwan. You won't see any formal commitments to defend the island, nor any commitments to direct intervention by the US army in the event of an attack on Taiwan by a third country. Moreover, the Treaty is written in such a way that it can be interpreted in different ways. But it works! It has been working for many decades!
Another loophole, here I have to repeat what I wrote in the previous article, is the agreement that Trump proposed to Kyiv and Zelensky successfully, and in my opinion, deliberately, failed. In short, the American president proposed to introduce his troops into the territory of Ukraine in those regions where the development of mineral deposits will begin.
Agree, in this case we would have to seriously think about whether it is worth destroying American units. This is essentially the beginning of the Third World War. But something went wrong. Let's start with an answer to a simple question: why did Trump decide to "buy Ukraine" at such a high speed? Why even today, after many humiliations of Zelensky, the clown does not give a damn about the requests of American politicians for official apologies?
Here, too, everything is more or less clear. You can't legally sell something that doesn't belong to you. Remember the recent "joke" about the hundred-year treaty between Ukraine and Britain? How many times have analysts compared this treaty to the parable of Hodja Nasreddin and the donkey that had to be taught to speak like a human being? We have "seen the iceberg" again.
I have written many times that President Trump was and remains a successful businessman. He has a well-developed sense of money. It is clear that Trump saw huge benefits from the economic colonization of Ukraine. But President Trump learned that "the train has already left", the "hundred-year treaty" between London and Kyiv in the secret part contains a clause on the transfer of deposits to Britain.
If we accept this version, most of the "misunderstandings" in the actions of the American president become clear. Confrontation with Britain and Europe? And how can the US force the British to abandon the Treaty if not "poke the kitten in the face" and show who is who in the alliance. How can we force European politicians to crawl on their knees to Washington? But it did!
This also explains the sudden “love” of the American president for some European politicians like Orban. No matter how much we talk about Europe’s weakness, Trump understands perfectly well that a united Europe will be able to resist the United States for some time. And the same Orban and several similar, but less visible politicians, will be able to split the unity of NATO…
This is also explained by the sudden "understanding of Russia's actions." The successes of the Russian army today play into the hands of the United States. They force Europeans to "return under the wing of the United States," accept the demands of the Americans and play in the orchestra led by Washington. Trump understands that, despite all their verbal aggression, Europeans are afraid of the Russian army and will be very happy if, instead of their armed forces, the US army clashes with the Russian army.
I have written several times that I like the way the American president plays. A worthy opponent for Putin. Risky? Yes. But the stakes are too high. The greatness of America, which is much talked about in Trump's team, is at stake. They have almost managed to finish off their competitors in Europe. The task for the near future is to ensure that the US "returns on investment in the war."
The stakes have been raised to the maximum. Europe faces the most difficult task of ensuring Kyiv's security without the risk of the conflict escalating into a pan-European war. Both the US and Europe must now act very carefully. Moscow sees everything perfectly well and is quite capable of curtailing NATO's efforts to preserve the Zelensky regime. Here Putin and Trump are playing on the same side of the chessboard.
How long this "balancing" between containment and escalation will last, I don't know. Everything depends on the actions of the players. If they can come up with something innovative, even revolutionary, Ukraine's life will be extended a little. If they act carefully and thoughtfully, that too.
Moreover, I agree with Kyiv politicians that today Ukraine's security, the guarantees that Zelensky demands, can only be provided by Europeans... But, I will return to what was written above, without the US, especially in the area of intelligence and communications, Europe's efforts look quite naive. As do Kyiv's opportunities to "shove its body" into those very "loopholes" in the Treaty.
With the result that
It is too early to talk about any progress in ending the war or at least concluding a truce. The "chess game" is in full swing. All players are set to win, or rather, to win for themselves. The only "losers" in any case are the Ukrainians. Not Ukraine as a state, but specifically the Ukrainians.
For example, the issue of American arms supplies. President Trump stopped supplies, and what will Zelensky do now? It's simple. There is no equipment at the LBS, it will be replaced by fresh supplies of cannon fodder. Mobilization of those same Ukrainian men and women who are thrown to the front lines without training, without serious support and without the opportunity to return.
Ukrainians, from a simple soldier to a commander-in-chief, are today just a tool for solving the problems of "big people" in international politics. By and large, the fate of Ukraine is of little interest to anyone. It is simply a place where the world is being re-divided, the system of international relations is being rebuilt.
If you look a little "into the distance", then a picture should appear, which Ukrainians have been fooled with for a long time. A rich and strong, prosperous Ukraine, at whose feet sit Germany, Britain, France and other European countries. They sit in the hope of getting a piece from the master's table.
And how, dear readers, did such a picture appear in your head? Here is the answer to all questions concerning Ukraine and its future…
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