Military Review

Popovkin told the senators about the space threat and space debris

17
12 March 2013 of the year in the Federation Council held a round table on the theme "On the development of measures to ensure planetary security against space risks and threats." A report to the senators was made by the head of Roscosmos, Vladimir Popovkin. Following the results of the round table, Viktor Ozerov, the head of the Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security, sent the government a proposal to create a center in the country to prevent and counter threats related to the asteroid hazard. After the fall of 15 in February of the current year of the Chelyabinsk car, everyone is a danger that emanates from space, and no one has any idea how to counter this threat. One thing is clear - money is needed for this.


Vladimir Popovkin about the space threat


According to Popovkin, his department, together with the Russian Academy of Sciences, will work to create a single center for countering and preventing threats from space. In the number of such threats in the first place, he put asteroids and comets. It is characteristic that the third, but clearly not the last member of this group will be the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. This center will be distributed geographically across the facilities of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Roscosmos, the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Industry and Trade. A working group to create this center has already been created. Vladimir Popovkin told the senators that at the first stage, the main tasks of the center will be to increase the efficiency of monitoring small celestial objects and space debris, as well as launching research missions to potentially dangerous asteroids and comets and developing and testing means to influence space objects.

Curiously, at the same time, Vladimir Popovkin immediately noted that the creation of technologies to counter asteroids and active removal of space debris can serve as a very convenient cover for the creation and testing of military technologies. Therefore, he believes that it is necessary to create international documents that would exclude any possibility of creating, testing and deploying weapons systems in space. Accordingly, it is planned to connect the Russian Foreign Ministry to the work. This position was immediately supported by the head of the Russian Emergencies Ministry Vladimir Puchkov, who said that, together with foreign colleagues, it was necessary to work out the creation of an international early warning system for space threats deployed on satellites equipped with powerful telescopes.
Popovkin told the senators about the space threat and space debris

According to Vladimir Popovkin, the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) should be responsible for monitoring comets and asteroids, Roscosmos - for the fight against space debris and the solution of this problem. He also presented to the senators the projects of anti-asteroid spacecraft of the State Rocket Center. Makeev and NGOs them. Lavochkin. The participation of the Russian Ministry of Defense in this program at the meeting was not disclosed. Such a silence on the role of the military leaves room for fantasy. Most likely, we are talking about the creation and deployment of non-militaristic programs, then dual-purpose programs. At the same time, the existence of an international system for the exchange of information about asteroids approaching our planet with the help of orbiting telescopes does not in the least hinder the development of the military component of the space program.

According to Lydia Rykhlova, head of the department of the Institute of Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia will need about 58 billion rubles in the next 10 years to create a modern system for monitoring the asteroid danger on earth. But, according to Dmitry Rogozin, who oversees the defense industry and space, it is completely inefficient to create such a system of surveillance and protection on earth. And to count in such work only on our own financial resources for our country is also very costly.

According to experts, today there are simply no reliable technologies in the world that would predict with 100% the likelihood of large asteroids falling to Earth - fairly large objects that can lead to real destruction. Thanks to the currently existing American infrared telescope WISE, scientists have become aware of all the potentially dangerous to the planet meteorites of diameters about 1 kilometer, but the smaller the meteorite, the lower the probability of its detection, and most importantly, the later it will be noticed.

The diameter of a meteorite falling near Chelyabinsk was approximately 17 meters, and its fall was a complete surprise for all scientists. NASA experts, analyzing the trajectory of the fall of a given celestial body, determined that with the most favorable scenario it could be detected only 2 hours before the fall. In the best case, during this time it would be possible to warn citizens about the danger, although, as the flood in Krymsk showed, even with this we cannot always hope for it. In any case, even if people find out about the approach to Earth of a large meteorite, say, for 5 hours before its fall, during this time it will be possible at best only to write a will.

Ivan Moiseyev, scientific director of the Space Policy Institute, is also quite skeptical. According to him, the trajectories of all large asteroids today have long been known and studied by scientists. If we talk about small space bodies, today there are no technical means for their detection and destruction, which could be called effective. The real task of this entire program can only be scientific - to put telescopes into orbit and gradually, step by step, to create a network of observations of small celestial bodies. This is how some countries act today, but not Russia. According to him, a fairly good program to control meteorites is developing in the USA today, and it would be nice for Russia to cooperate with the Americans in the exchange of information. We can hardly do more so far. Therefore, the discussion of the problem in the Federation Council reflects only the hustle and bustle that the officials must demonstrate. After all, they had to respond to the fall of the Chelyabinsk meteorite.

According to Moiseyev, everything will end with the creation of a new structure, which will receive some funding, but not very large. According to him, back in Soviet times, they asked the current chief of the General Staff to allocate funds to fight the meteorite threat, to which the latter replied that the probability of a thermonuclear war on Earth is much higher than the threat of a meteorite falling, but you ask me for financial resources the destruction of asteroids is more than i spend on the thermonuclear program. Money for the project was not allocated at all. According to Ivan Moiseyev, exactly the same thing will happen now. First, calculate the budget, then estimate the probability of an asteroid falling, and the estimate will be reduced as it should.

Vladimir Popovkin about the threat of space debris

The head of Roscosmos also told about the danger of space debris, which represents a real threat to satellites located in the geostationary orbit of the Earth. According to Vladimir Popovkin, if in the near future the international community does not take urgent actions to protect spacecraft, then in the next 20 years the geostationary will be littered to such an extent that it cannot be used for its intended purpose.

According to him, the unique resource of the geostationary orbit of the Earth, where the vast majority of spacecraft are currently deployed, including the main communications satellites and satellites warning systems for rocket attack, can be completely lost. The debris of the geostationary orbit with space debris is so great that even if launches from the Earth are completely stopped, the process of aging and decommissioning and destruction of spacecraft will continue in the geostationary orbit. For this reason, it is just necessary to create an international community that would take up the solution of this problem, since the geostationary orbit is of strategic importance to earthlings.

Earlier, information appeared that there are more than 600 thousands of space debris objects in the near-earth orbit, the diameter of which exceeds 1, see. Collision with such space objects is fraught with serious damage to satellites, and with objects more than 10 see diameter, which there are already about 16 thousand, the complete destruction of the device. Today, satellites have to regularly "lead" from a collision with debris dangerous for their operation. And this, in turn, leads to the consumption of fuel reserves and shortening the service life of satellites. Currently, the losses of European satellite operators due to space debris are estimated annually at 140 million euros. At the same time, in the next decade, this figure could grow to 210 million euros per year.

Information sources:
- http://svpressa.ru/war21/article/65372/
- http://ria.ru/science/20130312/926831072.html
- http://pda.lenta.ru/articles/2013/03/13/phantommenace
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  1. Clueless
    Clueless 27 March 2013 08: 29
    +2
    In any case, even if people learn about a large meteorite approaching the Earth, say, 5 hours before it falls, during this time it will only be possible to write a will at best.


    Well, this is nonsense, in 5 hours you can easily evacuate a small town, provided that the military and the Ministry of Emergencies will do their job normally

    Especially under this case, it is necessary to restore bomb shelters in cities (now they are restored to the current city administration)
    1. Cosmonaut
      Cosmonaut 27 March 2013 09: 16
      +6
      If it flies large a meteorite, I assure you, no bomb shelter will save.
      Evacuation too.
      1. does it
        does it 27 March 2013 16: 14
        +2
        Quote: Cosmonaut
        If a large meteorite arrives, I assure you, no bomb shelter will save. Evacuation too.

        Yucatan meteorite confirmation of this ...
        1. wartruk
          wartruk 27 March 2013 16: 42
          +2
          As if only meteorites with a diameter of 1 km and above fell on the ground ...
          From smaller ones, a shelter would be quite useful. Yes, and notify the people, at least an hour, would not hurt. There will be at least fewer victims of the shock wave, over how many people were injured in Chelyabinsk.
    2. postman
      postman 29 March 2013 19: 39
      0
      Quote: Bad
      in 5 hours

      how?
      5x3600x40 km / s (or under 80 km / s if oncoming) = from 720 000 km (R)

      6 511 billion km2
      to "catch" such a small object in the celestial sphere, you need to know roughly where it is or stick the entire planet radar (very powerful)
      Quote: Bad
      you can easily evacuate a small town

      unlikely, the more so there is no warning system (radio point)
      and where to evacuate? in field? what's the point?
  2. Ascetic
    Ascetic 27 March 2013 09: 24
    +7
    Earlier, there was information that more than 600 thousand objects of space debris, whose diameter exceeds 1 cm, are currently in low Earth orbit.


    On the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office website, it is noted that in orbit there are over 200 thousand relatively small particles of space debris, the sizes of which vary from 1 to 10 cm. As for smaller objects, their number is measured in tens of millions.
    Mostly space debris is concentrated at altitudes from 850 to 1500 km above the Earth's surface.
    Space debris, wandering at altitudes below 600 km, enters the atmosphere and burns out in it for several years. But the garbage located at an altitude of 800 km, it takes decades. At heights of more than a thousand kilometers, space debris can be hundreds of years old.

    The same report says that "large debris" - satellites, boosters and rocket stages total about 15 fragments. Of the total 12 objects - third missile stages, booster blocks and debris of space technology
    Another 3 thousand 333 objects - working and failed spacecraft,
    Russia occupies the first place in the contamination of outer space. On her account 5833 objects. The United States is a little more than a thousand fragments behind. Behind them are 4824 pieces of garbage. Another 3288 units of garbage belong to China: “conscience” of France - 472 fragments of garbage, Japan owns 190 fragments, India - 170 (and this is the only country that has not appeared new space waste). The European Space Agency has 83 fragments. Other countries and organizations own 590 properties,
    link
    1. does it
      does it 27 March 2013 15: 59
      0
      Quote: Ascetic
      Russia occupies the first place in the contamination of outer space. On her account 5833 objects. The United States is a little more than a thousand fragments behind. Behind them are 4824 pieces of garbage. Another 3288 units of garbage belong to China: “conscience” of France - 472 fragments of garbage, Japan owns 190 fragments, India - 170 (and this is the only country that has not appeared new space waste). The European Space Agency has 83 fragments. Other countries and organizations own 590 properties,

      Where from! such accurate data on the debris belonging to a particular country .......
      1. Ascetic
        Ascetic 27 March 2013 20: 05
        +2
        Quote: kvirit
        Where from! such accurate data on the debris belonging to a particular country .....


        SKKP funds maintain a dynamic catalog in which
        rum contains information about the appointment of co, their affiliation, condition
        phenomena, orbit parameters, various non-coordinate characteristics
        etc. This information is subject to regular updating according to the results.
        observations of CO. in the world at present there are only two such systems,
        The systematic and efficient enough to solve this problem.
        These are the space monitoring systems (SKKP) of Russia and the United States.
        they were not created at all to monitor the contamination of the okP. home
        their task is to detect satellites that are dangerous to their
        her country from a military point of view. They belong to national
        ministries of defense. to complete this task
        to troll not only acting ka, but also all large ko, against
        of which objects dangerous from a military point of view are identified. This is a
        fishing as well since the systems were "made in good faith" and their real
        characteristics overlap specified initial requirements, they can
        They can solve broader problems. in this sense space debris
        "Lucky"

        surveillance equipment
        used SKKP are able to detect and control in regular
        modes mainly to a size of more than 10 ... 20 cm.
        measures to lower this threshold. as it turned out, this is possible
        when using controls in abnormal (experimental
        ny) modes. for example, when conducting a space experiment
        ODERACS-1 in 1994, Don-2n radar, (about a-135) operating in an emergency mode, early
        more American controls found the sphere with the smallest
        ~ 5 cm in diameter at a height of ~ 352 km (with an inclined range to the target
        500 ... 800 km)
        from existing domestic radars for monitoring km, perhaps more
        just suitable multifunction radar circular review "Don-2n"
        designed to detect ballistic targets,
        tracking them (up to 100 targets), determining coordinates and pointing
        anti-missiles (several tens) in the control of air
        countries of Russia and the countries of the Commonwealth
        1. Ascetic
          Ascetic 27 March 2013 20: 08
          +2
          Help. Space experiment ODERACS (Orbital Debris Radar
          Calibration Spheres), whose purpose was to detect
          capabilities and calibration of radar and some optical instruments, pro
          NASA was conducted in two stages, respectively, in 1994 and 1995. (ODERACS-1
          and ODERACS-2). From the board of the MCC “Shuttle” metal was thrown
          spheres of three sizes - 6, 4 and 2 inches in diameter (respectively,
          ~ 15, 10 and 5 cm) - as well as dipoles. In the work on the spheres
          and some Russian radar stations UHF-, S- and C-bands. They find-
          whether they accompanied 15- and 10-centimeter spheres from the first passer-by
          denia through the action areas of stations, with the exception of the UHF radar,
          which steadily observed 10-centimeter spheres only after
          lowering the sensitivity threshold and installing special
          gram noise reduction filter. 5-centimeter spheres reveal
          only S-and C-band radars were armed and accompanied. Special interest
          present the results of the work of a functional RLSPROkru-
          The first review of the C-band Don-2H. Its frequency range and potential
          The characteristics were almost perfectly matched to the
          Cham experiment - to assess radar detection capabilities
          small-sized QoS and measuring their EPR. In the work on five-centimeter-
          In these areas, an emergency (experimental) program was used.
          mA with incoherent echo accumulation. In every walkthrough
          spheres were accompanied until the exit from the zone of action. According to the result
          there, both sides (American and Russian) concluded
          that the Don-2N radar, while operating in the indicated mode, reliably detects
          Fractional size up to 5 cm in the sector 100 ... 200 ° at a range of 500 ... 800 km
          and steadily accompanies them to the border of 900 ... 1500 km. Radar can
          be recommended as an adequate sensor for research
          for monitoring the contamination of the low orbits of the OKP
          gene CM (up to 5 cm). To track smaller CMs or increase
          the maximum range of guaranteed detection may be
          used longer incoherent accumulation more-
          the total number of echoes — up to 100 or more, while in the ODERACS-1 experiment no more than 10 echoes were accumulated.
          link
  3. Z.A.M.
    Z.A.M. 27 March 2013 09: 26
    +2
    Space debris - relevant.
    Everything else is a very distant prospect ...

    Quote: Bad
    In any case, even if people learn about a large meteorite approaching the Earth, for example, 5 hours before it falls, then during this time it will be possible at best, just write a will.

    Well, this is nonsense, in 5 hours you can easily evacuate a small town, provided that the military and the Ministry of Emergencies perform their work normally

    I do not agree with you. Popovkin is completely right. There can be no evacuation in 5 hours, and even in 20. Remember the last flood ... I forgot the name of the village. What an evacuation, howlers there didn’t work, what a warning means. They can’t cope with earthly problems, and some wish asteroids, like on a computer, to shoot down with lasers ... or losers.
    And where to evacuate from the meteorite asteroid? To the other world on buses? What to do? Nothing - live TODAY, and live DECENTLY. Arrives, so it arrives. From death you will not evacuate ... for any ...
    1. Ascetic
      Ascetic 27 March 2013 10: 52
      +3
      Quote: Z.A.M.
      Popovkin is completely right. There can be no evacuation in 5 hours, and even in 20.


      like we were joking, why are two pistols in the safe? So that after starting you could shoot yourself winked
      Veterans told. that in the 60s when there was no silos, they were given special first-aid kits with ampoules and tablets on duty. It was believed that a person exposed to lethal doses of radiation from burns could use them for 2 hours to be efficient and complete the task .. and then .. to die with a clear conscience .. We also had such pencil cases, but they didn’t give them to us, only during the threatened period when the troops were brought to the GBO
  4. Volkhov
    Volkhov 27 March 2013 09: 31
    -2
    The article itself is informational garbage, and the saddest thing is that the country's leadership really floats on these issues.
    As for Chelyabinsk, the most important is the physics of the explosion - what it was, and thanks to the video everything is visible with the eye, only to realize, but this contradicts some of the dogmas of academics.
    As for the forecast and evacuation - take an example from crows and other animals - they did everything correctly and well in advance, again you need to understand the physics of the forecast and learn from wise ravens and not from rogues from the ministry - they only steal better.
    As for space debris, an understanding of the physics of the explosion of comets will lead to the creation of beam (vector) equipment that will be able to spray objects in the zone of flight of the ship and the space will be cleared, although the closest cleaning of satellites and their debris will occur during the Ripple, but then there will be a lot of meteorites.
  5. ALPETSEM
    ALPETSEM 27 March 2013 10: 12
    +5
    About space ... Today is 45 years since the death of the first cosmonaut Yuri Alekseevich Gagarin.
  6. Egor.nic
    Egor.nic 27 March 2013 12: 41
    +1
    At first, it would be better to clear the cities from the garbage and even the brains would not hurt. And then waving a broom in space. Our people are without normal work, but we import tons of migrants. There is no full-fledged production, agriculture is in decline, technology is backward. And the great idea is to make money.
    1. does it
      does it 27 March 2013 16: 08
      0
      Quote: Egor.nic
      At first, it would be better to clear the cities from the garbage and even the brains would not hurt.

      everything is clear with cities and villages! and what are you going to clean your brains with?
  7. jayich
    jayich 27 March 2013 12: 50
    0
    It’s a pity the POLUS project was ruined; it could have been used even if only to a limited extent.
  8. lazy
    lazy 27 March 2013 12: 52
    +1
    Thanks to the current American WISE infrared telescope, scientists have become aware of all potentially dangerous meteorites with diameters of about 1 kilometer, but the smaller the meteorite, the lower the probability of its detection, and most importantly, the later it will be noticed. I wonder where such confidence comes from? Did they scan the entire Oort cloud?
  9. MrFYGY
    MrFYGY 27 March 2013 12: 58
    +5
    They dirtied the Earth, space dirtied, and who will clean?
    1. studentmati
      studentmati 27 March 2013 22: 41
      0
      Maybe we’ll deal with Alex?
  10. knn54
    knn54 27 March 2013 13: 27
    +2
    Each month, the ISS has to perform several maneuvers of escape to avoid collisions with space debris. And the problem of clearing the orbit of debris has not been solved .. In about 30 years, the launch of new satellites will be practically impossible.
  11. evgenii67
    evgenii67 27 March 2013 14: 03
    0
    Quote: MrFYGY
    They dirtied the Earth, space dirtied, and who will clean?

    It’s time to send Tajiks to space
  12. studentmati
    studentmati 27 March 2013 22: 47
    0
    Solving the problems of the cosmic threat is still weak humanity, but striving to solve them is certainly necessary.
    The problem of space debris - another ten years, no more - will cost the lion's share of all the budgets of countries participating in the space club.
  13. postman
    postman 29 March 2013 19: 48
    0
    talk of space debris of one of the main garbage collectors touched.
    CleanSpace One - Switzerland

    in implementation, by a country that has not launched a single pH

    Besides talking, Popovkin will solve the problems of our cosmonautics, otherwise he would only go in cycles in the carriage
    =======================
    talk about monitoring a space (asteroid) threat at this stage of development is empty and meaningless, and the likelihood of such events is simply negligible
    Apophis (Guinness record for danger), now 1: 250 000