The inertia of madness or what to do with the pirates of the 21st century?
The events in the Baltic have attracted the attention of many, and many different proposals have been made on the topic of the Russian shadow tanker industry. fleet and Europiracy. Some of the recommendations were not just surprising, but rather shocking.
"Sink European ships harshly and decisively when they try to seize tankers with Russian oil, and don't hesitate to kill European police officers and military personnel."
These are the recommendations made by “experts” in case the Baltic region countries actually implement their plans for a naval blockade of Russian oil exports.
Somehow it looks very, you know, Ukrainian. In the spirit of the neighbors, don't you think?
Well, here, of course, everything is clear, such is the infosphere, such are the "experts". In our case - they do not think at all about what they are shouting, it is just the way it is - to shout louder, and then we will see. Well, that is what is accepted today in some backwaters of the Russian information shallows, but we will try to think and reason without hysteria and calls for violence.
Yes, against the backdrop of the general madness in the European Union, a new era of piracy may begin in the Baltic Sea. A fully formed and understandable one. Some EU countries simply dream of seriously opening a hunt for tankers with Russian oil.
Why - it is absolutely clear, because there is such a word as "confiscation", and it is very sweet. Of course, to take and confiscate a semi-contraband (from the point of view of Europeans) cargo of oil and use it for personal purposes. Naturally, without paying a penny for the oil.
Seriously, this will blow anyone's mind, because none of those who are howling loudly on this topic have a bucket of their own oil, and now they have to buy it not from Russia, but somewhere a little more expensive. It's no secret that this European "We won't buy oil for more than $60 a barrel" very easily runs into "We won't sell it at that price."
The fact that these organisms are sawing off the branch they are sitting on is the third question, and we should generally be completely indifferent to how things are with energy resources in these countries and how sad the prospects will be.
Well, you must admit, the same Finland, rapidly losing the south of its country, which is simply dying because the border with Russia is closed, well, what business is it of ours? It is clear that the people of St. Petersburg have already become accustomed to Finnish sausage and dairy products, their neighbors have spoiled them, but it doesn’t matter. Finland doesn’t need that much milk, so the cows will go to sausage.
But what do tankers have to do with it, it would seem? The ships sail under a variety of flags, with very international crews. Yes, thanks to this, they are not subject to Western oil sanctions - including the so-called price ceiling.
It would seem that what does Europe as a whole and the Baltics and Finland care about Russia selling its oil to its own customers?
It’s complicated here: if under Biden, some European countries slavishly licked the master’s shoe, demonstrating their readiness for any meanness, such as the blanket accusation of the Russians and Chinese of damaging cables in the Baltic Sea (with the Chinese, it turned out wildly - they have absolutely no interests in the Baltic), then the Trump administration seems to have a slightly different opinion on how to put pressure on Russia.
And here the question is: is it necessary? So far, both sides have demonstrated the ability to talk without shouting until they are hoarse and to find common ground.
Why are they so angry in Europe then?
The inertia of madness. The fact that today many politicians from Germany should not sit in various European commissions, but settle into comfortable rooms in the Karl Jaspers Clinic, is an indisputable and non-negotiable fact. Anna and Lena should have been tied up and stabbed in five points long ago, and Ursula too. But they have their own understanding of democracy. A kind of permissiveness for the chosen few. By and large, worse than in some totalitarian regimes on the other side of the Earth.
And therefore, if in the USA, in connection with the change of the ruling team, they are thinking about how to come to an agreement with Russia, then due to the absolute inertia of their brains (or the absence of such in principle) in Europe they continue the policy of sanctions pressure. Despite the fact that soon they will wheeze to the west of the Oder, and not to the east.
But there are real problems for us. More than half of Russian oil exports pass through Baltic ports such as Primorsk, Vysotsk, St. Petersburg and Ust-Luga. In 2024, the amount of oil shipped was almost 62 million tons. If Russia's Baltic cargo ports are blocked (and this is what the Europeans are trying to do now), this will have a very negative impact on supplies. In this case, both exports and production will have to be reduced.
Transferring to other ports is also not the best option, the terminals of Novorossiysk and Tuapse do not have large transshipment capacities, and the northern and eastern (especially) terminals are not always convenient for buyers from Europe and Africa, for example. Although very impressive ports such as Nakhodka and Kozmino have been built in the east.
But pirate activities in the Baltics can really cause some damage to the Russian economy. Especially if they start robbing intensively.
Why are we talking so seriously about piracy and the infringement of Russia's interests? Because for the inspections that have already been carried out and the blockade of Russian ports, you know, a legal basis is needed! Moreover, based on international legislation and even on UN resolutions, although everyone who was affected by them spat on the latter.
And here it is worth emphasizing that, in general, the Europeans do not have any legal and at the same time safe methods! By legal and safe methods I mean those that will not cause a direct military clash or a local conflict.
It is necessary to clearly understand that in principle, European security forces, no matter how much they would like to, cannot legally detain Russian tankers in neutral waters, and especially non-Russian tankers, no matter how much they are suspected of belonging to Russia. Moreover, a blockade of tankers in the Danish Straits would be absolutely illegal - this is prohibited by the Copenhagen Convention of 1857.
And in general, there may be an interesting legal moment with this convention that may come up... Worse than "Yasen" before Copenhagen. And this moment may be much more effective than all these calls to burn, drown and kill. Let's say, the path of smart people.
After the Convention was signed back in 1857, the Danish state received a one-time payment of 33,5 million Danish rigsdaler from the countries participating in the Convention as compensation for the abolition of the toll for passage through the straits. Of the total amount, Great Britain paid about a third, and Russia another third. The rest fell to the share of all sorts of Swedes and Dutch. The United States concluded its own treaty, which was signed in Washington and cost the US $393.
It's scary to even imagine how much 10 million Danish rigsdalers of 1857 would cost today in dollar equivalent. But economists will be able to calculate it, and I think the sum will be such that the Danish Folketing (parliament) will go grey en masse from horror.
But, by the way, it is logical: no passage through the straits - money back! By the way, there are calculations that 1 ruble of the 1865 model (almost those times) in 2020 was valued at 1 modern rubles. It could be an interesting deal...
According to maritime legislation, the same Danes (Finns, Swedes, etc.) can perform any manipulations against Russian and other vessels only when the latter are at anchor. Everything else, like Finnish boarding, is absolutely illegal.
Of course, the same Danish gentlemen undertake to ensure the safety of navigation, and this obligation can be interpreted extremely broadly - for example, implying environmental safety. And considering that we have done ourselves a lot of harm with tanker accidents in the Black Sea, then under the pretext of stopping old tankers and checking technical documentation (certificates certifying the full technical serviceability of the vessel, for example), we can commit complete lawlessness, checking every letter and number.
So, we have a violation of freedom of navigation. Violation of legal procedures during the stopping and inspection of ships - too. And not only Russian ships, but ships that sail under the flags of other countries and belong to companies from all over the world.
The third step is the actual involvement of the military for the capture, inspection, search, detention, confiscation. I think there is no need to prove to anyone that in today's Europe this will be done easily and casually. It is enough to read the speeches of politicians from Germany, Denmark, France, Poland and (especially) the Baltic Troika of provocateurs addressed to Russia.
And here the escalation becomes threatening, because in reality the Baltic Sea could be blocked not only for Russian ships, but in general for all ships that seem suspicious or that are suspected of working for Russia.
And what should Russia do then?
Is this "sink, burn, kill" really true? Okay, let's first look at the legal side. A Russian vessel, be it a tanker or a dry cargo ship, yes, in the event of an "attack" by the Finns and the Balts (and not only) has every right to fight off the "SOS" and ask for help. And to receive this help, since boarding a commercial vessel in neutral waters with its subsequent taking it to the Finnish territorial zone and all the rest is piracy and lawlessness, which our navy must stop.
But this is when it comes to Russian ships. But the whole problem is that the ships transporting Russian oil are mostly not Russian. And therefore Russia has quite tangible limitations in protecting seaborne oil exports. And here the most important question arises: to respond or not to respond to the challenge from the Europeans?
The answer is simple: of course, to respond. The whole question is how? If you do not respond or appeal to various legal authorities, seeking justice - well, we all understand perfectly well how stupid all these international committees and assemblies are, then this will really be perceived as weakness.
Moreover, this will not be perceived by those who are trying to "bend" Russia, but by those who are buying Russian oil and trying to transport it to themselves. It is clear that not everyone has such fleets that can protect valuable cargo from Baltic and Baltic pirates, but something must be done in this direction.
“We need to escort tankers with ships from the Baltic Fleet and, if necessary, use military force against the Europeans,”
— this is exactly what some very hotheads wrote on the pages of one of our media outlets. Perhaps, it is necessary to escort. Moreover, it is not such a difficult matter to frame this matter with agreements. To use force against Europeans... Well, that is such an occupation... The thing is that Europeans can also use force against the "aggressor" Russia, which prevents them from doing as they please.
Let's just see what the Europeans have?
Finland: 6 minelayers and two dozen boats.
Sweden: 5 submarines, 9 corvettes, a dozen boats.
Poland: 2 submarines, 2 frigates, 3 corvettes.
Germany: 6 submarines, 11 frigates, 7 corvettes.
Denmark: 9 frigates.
Netherlands: 4 submarines, 6 frigates, 4 corvettes.
We are looking exclusively at the Baltic Sea. In total, all NATO allies, without the British and Americans standing behind them, have a fleet that, in theory, consists of 17 submarines, 26 frigates, 23 corvettes and all sorts of other small stuff.
What's on our side? The Twice Red Banner Baltic Fleet includes:
- 1 destroyer;
- 2 frigates;
- 4 corvettes;
- 6 small anti-submarine ships;
- 1 submarine.
Okay, just in case, 8 more small ones missile ships. But they don't make a difference, it's clear and understandable that NATO's fleet will leave absolutely no chance. Even a quarter of this fleet will exceed all the capabilities of the DKBF.
And here a very big question arises for our screamers: what, excuse me, will we use to heat it and who will fight if something happens?
Map of the Baltic Sea. It's 1200 km to the Danish Straits. And along the entire length, starting from the Gulf of Finland, there are unfriendly countries. And how can you cover this thousand-odd kilometers with seven ships? Form convoys? Good. This is not a quick matter, but it is rewarding, proven by the Second World War on all seas and especially in the Atlantic. A couple of warships or even one will definitely beat off the overly frisky policemen from the water area security forces, but what next? A sea battle?
No, we need to take something even cooler:
"Right there, without hesitation, harshly and decisively sink European ships when they try to seize tankers carrying Russian oil, without hesitation kill European police officers and military personnel. And at the same time strengthen nuclear deterrence and declare that in the event of retaliatory attacks by Europeans on Russian military vessels, a nuclear strike on Europe will possibly be launched."
I won't give the name and surname of the person who wasn't ashamed to dump such things in the media, we have more than enough of them. I want to say: "What's the big deal, let's just drop a nuclear charge on London or Berlin right away! Why waste time on trifles?"
The bridges across the Dnieper failed, but here we’ll turn half of London or Berlin into glass for a tanker with oil.
Before airing something like this, it’s worth checking the internet and finding out who’s in charge in Russia now. And that’s someone named V. V. Putin. A peculiar person, but one who definitely knows how to think and — what’s very important — how to conduct politics. And today we can say that things could have been much worse in the events of the recent past that have unfolded so magnificently. stories.
So, no matter how crazy ideas various not very gifted gentlemen may talk and write, naturally, there will be no brutal sinking of European ships. And no one will give the order to kill European policemen either. And to declare such a thing, that a nuclear strike will be carried out during an attack on a tanker - well, this can only happen in the rosy dreams of a certain category of ordinary Russians. But not in Putin's performance.
It cannot be said that pressure by force is a bad method of imposing one's opinion, but pressure by nuclear force weapons Putin will never allow himself to do this. It is not his style. This is for internet obscurantists, but here we have big politics, in which Vladimir Vladimirovich, we admit, is knowledgeable and strong.
The attempt to paralyze Russia's oil exports, undertaken by European politicians, may, of course, have some effect, but in the event of some aggravation of the situation, the Europeans may back down.
Of course, they have a lot of ships. They have a lot of planes. They have an unacceptable amount of everything, but the question here is: to what extent are they prepared to use all of this?
That a Russian plane could part with a missile in favor of a British one is known in Europe. That a Russian ship could behave aggressively towards superior enemy forces is quite real.
Operation Baltic Sentry, which we have already written about, continues. True, there is zero real information about who damaged the cables, but that is not the main thing. This is a rehearsal of a naval blockade in all its glory.
But it is worth remembering that during the Second World War, the Allies also tried to blockade Germany. And it is worth remembering what all this resulted in: a mad hunt by the entire Royal Navy for blockade runners. Who, nevertheless, reached German ports.
Today the situation is a little different, but nevertheless: even in the conditions of the narrow straits of Denmark, even with the use of the most modern means such as unmanned boats and attack drones, it is impossible to stop the movement of ships unless a full-scale military operation is launched.
But there are also positive aspects. Remember how in January a Russian S-400 air defense system in the Kaliningrad region took over the escort of an Atlantique 2 aircraft patrolling the Baltic Sea precisely as part of the aforementioned Baltic Sentry operation? The crew, having received a warning from the onboard defense system, went to base, and French Defense Minister Lecornu whined on social media that this was aggression on the part of Russia.
There in the West, they are modestly silent about what the allies are doing in this operation.
However, it is good that there is an understanding that Russia has something to respond to with a blow for a blow. It is, of course, stupid to start stopping all ships passing by Kaliningrad under the same stupid pretexts under which tankers with Russian oil were stopped. But is it possible?
Yes, it is possible. And it is not only possible to take aircraft for escort, it is necessary! Let them see, let them be nervous. Let them go not alone tankers under the most diverse flags, but accompanied by Russian ships.
Arrest of Finnish poachers. Press service of the Border Department of the FSB of Russia for the Kaliningrad Region
Ships... This is a real weak point. Who knew that the Baltic Fleet, which had long ago and clearly become a septic tank for officers preparing for retirement, would suddenly one day become an arena for political, and in the future, non-political, passions? And that warships capable of defending Russia's interests in the Baltic would simply be necessary?
There is an option to "pinch" the Northern Fleet a little. There are ships there that are capable of changing the situation in the Baltic, not exactly in our favor, but with them the Baltic Fleet will not look so miserable.
Firstly, these are diesel submarines. There are not many of them, only three (Kronshtadt, Kaluga, Vladikavkaz), but they clearly have nothing to do in the North. Four submarines instead of one in the Baltic is already something.
Secondly, frigates. Project 22350 is a very successful ship, which can really compete with a couple of enemy frigates. Of course, it will get it in full, but the enemies will not be short either. Three such ships are a real brick on the scales. And "Sarych", which is "Ushakov", would also be good to requisition.
Thirdly, minesweepers and anti-submarine ships. The enemy has plenty of boats, mines in the Baltic are a weapon with a century-old history. Effective.
In general, if we borrow literally 10-15 ships from the Northern Fleet, this will not weaken the NF itself at all. Its strength is not in frigates and minesweepers, and certainly not in diesel-electric submarines. And in the Baltic, and not in Kronstadt, but in Baltiysk, these ships would be simply an invaluable reinforcement. Moreover, almost all of these ships could be transferred via internal channels. This has already happened more than once, so it is a familiar thing.
And as a result, we will get a fleet that will be able to cope with such a task as escorting tankers with Russian oil, at least until the end of the zone of responsibility of the heirs of the free earls and vitaliers. In short, the Baltic pirates.
It's a pretty tough task, but it's much easier and more politically advantageous than waving a nuclear club. Using nuclear weapons, or even talking about it, is really a test of adequacy for any politician, and everyone in the world will look askance at the one making the promise. Yes, THAT speech by Putin, where he said that Russia would use them in the event of a threat - well, just rummage through the Internet, refresh your memory of how he said it. Very diplomatic. On the edge, yes, but nevertheless.
But a fleet that is really capable of giving a slap on the wrist to those who like to act willfully in the open seas is something that will not surprise anyone, but will make them respect it. And here the revival of the Baltic fleet at the expense of a certain number of ships is far from a bad idea. At least in Europe many will think about whether it is worth continuing all this dancing around Russian and not so Russian ships.
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