The Russian Federation became the first country that Xi Jinping selected for the state visit as the new chairman of the PRC. The most important documents signed during the visit appeared agreements to increase the supply of Russian hydrocarbons to China and the construction of pipeline branches in the southern direction. In addition, an intergovernmental agreement to expand cooperation in the trade of crude oil and an agreement on cooperation in the construction and operation of the Tianjin oil refining and petrochemical plant were signed.
Xi Jinping’s visit began on Friday with long (seven-hour!) Talks with Vladimir Putin. Then the two colleagues jointly opened the year of Chinese tourism. The next day, Comrade Sy visited the State Duma, gave a lecture to MGIMO students and visited the Operational Control Center of the Armed Forces. Vladimir Putin called Xi Jinping’s trip a “landmark gesture”, and State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin said that this fact speaks of the priority of the Russian Federation in China’s foreign policy.
Commenting on the results of Comrade X's visit to Moscow, some experts say that relations between Russia and China are in good shape, but in the future they may become complicated. Analysts of the Economist magazine associate deterioration in relations with China’s ambitions in the arms market. Beijing is dissatisfied with the deliveries of Russian weapons to Vietnam and India, while in the meantime it is becoming an active player in the arms market, competing with Russia.
Recall that at the end of last year, China entered the top five of the world's largest exporters of the main types of conventional weapons. About it says in the report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The report includes data on the supply of main types of conventional weapons and military equipment in the period from 2008 to 2012. The top five largest arms suppliers, as before, are the United States (30% as a share of global exports). weapons), followed by Russia (26%), then Germany (7%), France (6%) and China (5%).
China is also a significant arms importer. The top five importers of weapons are led, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, India (12% in the share of world imports), followed by China (6%), Pakistan (5%), South Korea (5%) and Singapore (4 %).
As for Russia, on the eve of the visit of the Chinese leader, Russia and China have signed framework agreement on the supply of aircraft and submarines. The PRC will purchase non-nuclear submarines of the 24 Amur project from the 35 and Su-4 and 1650 aircraft of the Russian Federation. The implementation of these two agreements may be the first in the last decade a major supply of Russian weapons to China. Moreover, the Chinese side believes that in the future, the PRC and the Russian Federation may expand cooperation in the field of arms supplies. We are talking about the purchase by China of heavy 117C engines, C-400 anti-aircraft guns, Il-76 transport aircraft and Il-78 tanker aircraft.
The current contract for the supply of Su-35 and submarine project 1650 "Amur", as told “Russian service BBC” Independent military expert Viktor Murakhovsky, really signed. It was prepared for several months: during this time, the parties discussed the volume of deliveries. The fact is that Russia refused to supply a small batch of aircraft to China, fearing that Beijing is planning to copy these products. But during the negotiations last year, an agreement was signed on the protection of intellectual property in terms of defense products. Murakhovsky notes that China had previously successfully copied the gliders of the Russian Su-27 and MiG-29 aircraft, then starting production of the J-10 and FC-1 fighter jets. True, the engines, and less modern than the Su-35, the Chinese could not copy.
Dmitry Mosyakov, Head of the Center for Southeast Asia and Oceania at the Institute of Oriental Studies, who answered several questions "Euronews"He believes that the route of the Chinese leader speaks about the priorities that modern China is building, and about those foreign policy priorities that the PRC leadership is building for the future. Russia, from the point of view of the new Chinese leadership, is moving towards a position of a very close alliance, the expert believes.
D. Mosyakov has no doubt that Russian-Chinese relations will improve, but relations between China and the United States will, on the contrary, be tense: “I think that these relations will consistently improve. And clearly there is a common interest and common positioning in the world of Russia and China. As for China, it is increasingly clear that its relations with the United States have entered a very difficult period of struggle, when the USA is trying with all its might to stop the growth of Chinese power, the growth of Chinese expansion in Southeast Asia, in the countries of the Pacific region, when very complex relations with Japan. Russia in this situation also has a huge interest in strengthening relations with China, not only as an economic alternative, but also as a political alternative. Because it is natural that the position of closer relations with China strengthens the position of Russia in negotiations with both the EU and the United States. ”
The main purpose of Xi Jinping’s visit was to expand Chinese purchases of Russian hydrocarbons. Today, Russia provides 6% of oil supplies to China. Mostly Celestial buys her in saudi arabia.
CNPC and Gazprom signed a memorandum on gas supplies to China via the eastern route. The signing of the memorandum allows you to start a long discussion of the value of the contract. The volume of deliveries can be 38 billion cubic meters with the possibility of increasing to 60 billions. The agreement is likely to take effect from the 2016 year. An outlet from the Power of Siberia gas pipeline will be built for deliveries.
Rosneft signed an agreement with CNPC on the terms of supply of crude oil to China on a prepayment basis for 25 years, a contract for cooperation in the construction and operation of the Tianjin refinery, an agreement on cooperation in the field of exploration, production and sale of hydrocarbons. CNPC will cooperate with the Russian company in eight projects in Eastern Siberia, as well as on the shelf of the Barents Sea and in the Pechora basin.
Publicist Andrew Parshev on this topic says the following: “In general, we must understand that Russia is gradually becoming an important source of resources for China. Modern geopolitical development is likely to result in the fact that China will experience a significant shortage of resources from other sources. Of course, this is certainly a very offensive perspective for us, but, on the other hand, if we have already accepted the fact that we are a raw materials appendage of the West, then, as they say, we should not get used to it already. ”
Speaking to representatives of Russian Sinology at the Diplomatic Academy, Xi Jinping рассказал listeners about their passion for Russian literature. His favorite book is the novel “What to do?” The PRC leader recalled his youth: “At that time I was working in the village and decided to follow the example of Rakhmetov. In the summer, he went out in the rain, in the winter he went out in the snow, so that he could harden his will. ” (Comrade C was probably not sleeping on the nails). At the end of the meeting in the Diplomatic Academy, the PRC leader expressed hope that new generations in China and Russia will continue to develop friendly ties between the two countries.
Analyst Ivan Preobrazhensky (Rosbalt), recalling Xi Jinping’s statement that the results of the visit exceeded his expectations, remarks that the Chinese delegation did not come to pay, but to ask prices.
New Chinese top is going to solve the problem of reorientation of the economy: to turn quantity into quality, not allowing overheating. The best way here is to invest the surplus in a foreign economy, in exchange for acquiring what the national economy lacks. China needs Russian energy, weapons and technology.
“Watching all this for the future has arrived, apparently, this time the Chinese delegation. And the statement by Xi Jinping means that the Chinese have found that there are clearly more people suitable for acquiring property in Russia than could have been expected, judging by its rates of “de-modernization” in recent years. And most importantly, they saw that the Russian elites are ready to part with this property. ”
According to the expert, returning back home, the Chinese will analyze the information received and estimate how much money they are ready to give to the Russians. Basically, the money will go to Russia in the form of loans. And then the Chinese negotiators, writes Preobrazhensky, will conclude dubious contracts for Russia.
“Well, and then, as was already the case in Europe, for example, in the case of BMW, or in many African countries, in dozens and hundreds of cases, Chinese loans will need to be paid exactly when there is no money in the treasury. And a happy Chinese guest will get enough of what he needed: technology and energy. Together with the companies that develop or produce them. ”
As for the Chinese, they provide information about the meeting and planned cooperation in solemn tones. Influential newspaper "People's Daily" пишетthat in bilateral trade and economic contacts over the past 10 years, besides the period of financial crisis, double-digit growth rates remained. The trade turnover between China and Russia for twenty years has grown 15 times, last year a record was set - 88,2 billion dollars. Before the overseas tour, Xi Jinping emphasized that the goal of achieving turnover in 100 billion dollars in bilateral trade, which was planned for the 2015 year, should be achieved earlier. The newspaper also notes that during the visit, the Chairman of the PRC and the President of the Russian Federation decided to transform the advantages of a high level of political relations into practical fruits of pragmatic cooperation.
An article in a Chinese newspaper ends almost in the style of the editorial board of the Soviet Pravda:
“At present, China and Russia are going through an important period of national revival, almost identical countries face historical missions and development tasks. Sustainable cooperation and win-win relationships will contribute to the joint upsurge. Economic interaction is aimed at balancing quantity and quality, deepening cooperation in the field of energy, high technology, and investment, will certainly raise bilateral mutually beneficial cooperation to a whole new level, and at the same time, the goal will be achieved to strengthen the integrated power of the two states and increase their international competitiveness. ”
As for the western assessment of Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow, it is remarkably illustrated by an article by Stephen Garner, published recently in the journal "Forbes". The journalist is sounding the alarm that the Chinese and Russians have not only knocked together a successful anti-American alliance, but also started strengthening it. One might think that the correspondent writes with humor, but no: he is tormented by real fear. He is afraid for his native United States. Behind the little eagle, at which, bear and frowning, look Bear and Dragon.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping shook hands in the Grand Kremlin Palace. Many people in the State Department, the White House and the Pentagon, the journalist continues in a tragic tone, wriggled in their chairs this weekend, and those responsible for US Asian policy (especially China policy) did nothing but listen and read the reports. about the meeting comrades Putin and Xi.
The meeting between the leaders of China and Russia is not a big failure, it’s just a disaster for US interests, Garner writes. What is happening now testifies to the stupidity of the Obama-Clinton-Panetta trio with their "turn towards Asia." This demonstrates the complete political inability of the Obama administration to create constructive relations with China.
Moreover, the analyst continues, the Japanese must panic too. Even stronger than the Americans. After all, Comrade X declared that the outcome of the meeting exceeded his expectations. What could be worse for the Japanese?
The American exactly cuts the tablet: the days from 22 to 24 in March 2013 of the year related to the official state visit of Xi Jinping, more precisely, with his first foreign visit after accepting the highest state post, unfortunately, gave a historical beginning to a new anti-American geopolitical alliance in East Asia.
According to Garner, the meeting of the two leaders confirmed their intentions to form a strategic partnership that would allow them to advance the interests of the two countries. The analyst believes that the strategic and territorial interests of each country are clearly confirmed, including claims for disputed territories. For China, here are the Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku), claimed by Japan, and the islands in the South China Sea, claimed by the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam. For Russia, such territories include four islands, which Japan assumes as its “northern territories”, and in Russia they are called the South Kuriles. The American journalist argues his opinion on the fact that at a joint press conference after the meeting, Xi and Putin especially emphasized that the right of the victorious powers in World War II (read: Russia and China, the journalist nervously remarks, not knowing what distant historical conclusions from his remarks, other American readers can do) can not be revised. Such statements indicate that Garner believes that Russia and China have established coordination and mutual support in resolving international disputes - in particular, in the United Nations, where both countries are permanent members of the UN Security Council with veto power.
Then Garner clutches at all his head. After all, Chinese and Russian officials signed 30 agreements on cooperation in the field of energy, trade, technology and military exchange. All these agreements are not just strategically important, but indispensable for both countries. In the area of military equipment, Russia has proven to be an invaluable and indispensable supplier for China: the West, led by the United States, continues to block the transfer of military technology to it.
It got to the point that Comrade Sy visited the Operational Control Center of the Armed Forces - where none of the foreign leaders had ever been before! Here, the Chinese were even allowed to video, says the journalist.
And in order to feel more connected, the Chinese and Russians agreed to strengthen energy cooperation. According to the American, Moscow is afraid of such a factor of competition as the gas “shale revolution”, besides energy is the most important branch of Russia. Therefore, Russia and China have planned to jointly develop the extraction of coal, oil and gas in Russia and ensure the current and future energy needs of China.
So, Garner summarizes what we really know is that the summit of Xi and Putin testifies: American diplomacy over the past four years has not been able to effectively motivate China to chart a course that is consistent with US interests. Most likely, the Obama administration has shown itself on the militaristic side, adhering to the rhetoric about strengthening the United States and focusing on the Asia-Pacific Region, and, on the whole, clearly pursuing an anti-Chinese strategy. Along with this, rhetoric included the return of the anti-Soviet Cold War. "Russian hugs," writes the journalist bitterly, seemed to be conceived as a counterweight to American hegemony and regional military alliances, in particular, the alliance between the United States and Japan. It is likely that the meeting between Xi and Putin on 22-24 in March was a turning point in history.
Let's sum up. Officially, Russia and China are fine. However, Russian analysts and observers fear that things are like in the song: "Everything is fine, beautiful marquise." The homeland is about to turn into a raw materials appendage no longer of the West, but China, Chinese investments will be small, and there will be loans with interest, which the Kremlin authorities for some reason are always happy about. As for airplanes and engines, thanks to the new agreements, the Chinese will in the coming years copy everything they could not copy earlier. Xi Jinping declared with purely Chinese frankness that the results of the visit exceeded his expectations.
Western experts and journalists, too, are sounding the alarm: after all, now that Russia and China have concluded a true strategic alliance, the Kuriles will remain with Russia, and Senkaku will go to China. Moreover, from now on, Beijing and Moscow represent the united and very evil enemy of Washington, who was greatly upset by the anti-Soviet White House. There used to be two relatively small enemies, and after the 22-24 March meeting, one major enemy appeared on the planet, which enabled Forbes journalist Mr. Garner to conclude that the entire Obama administration policy was disastrous. From now on, even the “shale revolution” is not terrible for Russia: after all, it will begin to supply energy to China, but it needs a lot of them. Japan, an American ally, will be ill from the Russian-Chinese meeting (for the time being, however, there is no heard of mass hara-kiri in the government). Finally, the fact that comrades Putin and Xi shook hands testifies to the onset of a new historical era: with the friendship of the PRC and the Russian Federation, world geopolitics will make a sharp turn.
Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru