Is SVO nearing completion?
The main news The most significant event of the last few days was the telephone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, which the parties officially announced on February 12. It is quite possible that this was not the first such conversation (Trump had previously stated in an interview that he had already spoken with Putin, and Dmitry Peskov did not deny this), but it was the most productive, and it was reported publicly.
Of course, the main topic of the conversation was the military conflict in Ukraine, or more precisely, the discussion of options for ending it. Donald Trump was quite optimistic in this regard, calling the negotiations productive and noting that the presidents agreed on the need to stop the conflict in Ukraine.
"We both agreed that we wanted to stop the millions of deaths (Trump was clearly exaggerating here - ed.) in the war between Russia and Ukraine. President Putin even used my campaign slogan - "common sense". We both believe in it very strongly. We agreed to work together, very closely, including visiting each other's countries. We also agreed that our respective teams would immediately begin negotiations,"
- сообщил Trump Can we say that the start of high-level negotiations between the US and Russia means that the special military operation is coming to an end? In the author's opinion, yes, and in this article he will try to explain why.
Peace talks: the first step has been taken
The author has already written more than once that the military conflict in Ukraine will inevitably end with negotiations (see, for example, “Permanent War or Korean Scenario: How the Conflict in Ukraine Could Develop”), and emphasized that in the conditions of positional warfare, when the front line at best moves 300-400 meters per month, achieving a military victory is practically impossible.
In fact, the special military operation ended in the spring-summer of 2022, when the conflict transformed into a protracted positional war. Given that the initial plans to capture Kyiv and quickly capitulate Ukraine failed to be achieved, the goals of the SVO were seriously adjusted.
The new plan was to "sit out" the West, wait for a change in the political elites in the US, Europe and Ukraine, wait for changes that would facilitate real peace talks. There was no longer talk of full control over Ukraine, as some jingoistic channels and bloggers assumed. At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces tried to achieve the most favorable situation for themselves on the battlefield, but, first of all, to strengthen their negotiating position.
This plan can hardly be called a strategy – rather, it was a situational tactic caused by a changed strategic situation. And with the arrival of Donald Trump, it seems that this tactic worked: in the US, there was a change of political elites who are inclined to dialogue with Russia, and Europe, to a large extent, is tired of Ukraine, although it is still formally ready to support it.
Unlike American Democrats (representing the left-liberal globalist project), American national conservatives do not consider Ukraine a significant asset for themselves, and therefore its value to them is small. In fact, Donald Trump himself hinted at this quite clearly when he was asked whether Ukraine was involved in the development of a decision about its future:
"That's an interesting question. I think they'll have to make peace. It's a bad war."
As is clear from Trump's statements, his first priority is to stop the war (which was one of his campaign promises, and he always tries to keep them) and to get Ukraine to pay for the multi-billion dollar aid packages in the form of control over key Ukrainian resources, rather than a long-term war of attrition to further weaken Russia, as the Democrats did.
Trump does not intend to support Zelensky’s fantastic “victory plans,” nor to promise Kyiv NATO membership – he called the prospect of Ukraine joining the alliance “impractical” and “unlikely.” He also acknowledged that “Ukraine is unlikely to get back its lost territories.”
Given the rather soft position of Trump and his team towards Russia (compared to the position of the Democrats and their representative Joe Biden), it can be assumed that negotiations could indeed begin in the very near future. It is also possible that a ceasefire will be established in the SVO zone as early as spring, if the negotiations progress smoothly.
In fact, the very next day after the official telephone conversation between Putin and Trump, Dmitry Peskov announced that Russia had begun work on forming a negotiating group for dialogue with the United States.
The West's Loss of Interest in Ukraine Means the End of the SVO
Nevertheless, despite the above, the hopes that the loss of interest on the part of the United States will lead to a decisive victory over Ukraine, which were expressed by some jingoistic bloggers and users, seem unrealistic. Simply because Russia does not have the strength and means for a complete victory over Ukraine, and Moscow understands this very well. And the West will do everything to prevent such a scenario.
The mood in the Russian Armed Forces is also far from the same as among the armchair patriots. People serve in the Russian Armed Forces, not robots, who are ready to remain in difficult combat conditions for years without rotation. Many of those mobilized, frankly speaking, already want to go home, and therefore are not against ending the conflict or at least a temporary respite. Advancing on Kyiv and Lvov while sitting in front of a computer screen is not at all the same as doing it in reality.
The Russian political leadership, as Dmitry Peskov has also stated on numerous occasions, is proceeding, first and foremost, from the situation “on the ground” – Russia, apparently, will demand that it retain all territories liberated by the Russian Armed Forces, guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO, and guarantees that Ukraine will not start a war in the future.
Accordingly, the loss of interest in Ukraine on the part of the West (primarily the US) does not mean a more active implementation of the SVO (as some experts and bloggers incorrectly estimated), but its completion. Since it is possible to achieve the somewhat transformed goals of the SVO through negotiations between the US and Russia. And this point of view is based not on the personal views of the author, but on an assessment of the current situation.
It is difficult to say how these negotiations will end, since the left-liberal globalists will continue to hinder Trump’s intentions to end the military conflict and push Zelensky to disrupt any possible agreements. Therefore, much will depend on how far the American president is willing to go to force Kyiv to peace talks and how the confrontation between competing global projects will develop.
Conclusion
The first step towards ending the SVO was made on February 12, but it is too early to talk about any stable trends - we hear a lot of words, but it is difficult to say what they will lead to. If the US and Russia manage to make a deal, and the States force Kyiv to negotiate and hold subsequent elections, then the military conflict will be stopped/frozen. What specific political agreements will end the conflict, who will guarantee them and who will control the conditions of a possible truce, is currently unknown.
The outlines of possible peace deal terms will likely become clear in the spring.
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