Kazakhstan presents preliminary report on Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Aktau

Kazakhstan has published a preliminary report on the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) airliner near Aktau airport on December 25, 2024. It has been established that some of the damage to the aircraft was caused by external objects before impact with the ground.

According to the transcript of the conversations of the pilots of the Embraer 190, flying on the Baku-Grozny route, the crew reported a collision with birds, requested weather in Makhachkala, Mineralnye Vody and Baku, and then decided to go to Aktau. As a result of landing at the airport, the plane crashed, 38 people out of 67 on board died.

According to the preliminary report, numerous damages caused by unidentified "external objects" were found in the tail section of the aircraft fuselage, as well as in the left engine and wing. At the moment, it is not precisely established what exactly caused this damage. For this purpose, special studies and examinations will be appointed and carried out.

The initial inspection revealed multiple through and non-through damages of various sizes and shapes in the tail section of the fuselage, vertical stabilizer and stabilizer, elevator and rudder. Similar damages were found on the left engine and left wing of the aircraft, as well as on the aircraft units and components. In some places, the damages have a regular rectangular shape.

- the document says.

In general, at the moment there is no final conclusion on the plane crash, the investigation is ongoing. The commission recommended assessing the risks of flights to "some" regions. In Azerbaijan, some resources continue to blame Russia for the plane crash, allegedly shot down by fire from the ground.

Comments

[ZovSailor]

Kazakhstan presents preliminary report on Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Aktau

[ZovSailor]

The Commander and the Crew knew about the "Carpet" plan in advance before approaching the dangerous region, as well as the difficult weather conditions in the Kav Mineralnye Vody - Grozny - Vladikavkaz - Makhachkala region, but did not cancel the decision to land in the dangerous region.
A monstrous provocation by MI6 + CIA with the SBU as perpetrators cannot be ruled out.

[Lev_Russia]

So in the photograph, if I'm not mistaken, these holes are turned outwards, that is, the damage occurred somewhere from the inside or from the side... However, it is difficult to draw any conclusions from this photograph alone... And the Azerbaijanis can continue to roll over to Russia, but it is unlikely that this will make it any easier for anyone... In general, the truth, as always, is somewhere nearby... request

[Neo-9947]

the damage occurred somewhere inside or on the side..

Well, yes. Either inside or on the side (outside). There is no third option.
But the keel is cut specifically, which means not inside. That means outside.
So it was shot down by a missile. The question is whose?
Let it be our missile, rather than it turn out that over the sovereign territory of the Russian Federation, everyone and their dog is shooting down civilian aircraft with missiles.

[jonht]

All anti-aircraft missiles are guided on a collision course, and even if they shoot in pursuit, the warhead is still detonated in the aircraft's nose sectors, most aircraft have engines in the middle and part, and the pilots are also in the nose, so it is also possible to pierce the tail, but for the aircraft it will be far from fatal. My brother is a former air defense specialist and they practice all this not only on electronic launches (without real shooting), but also on training grounds with real launches.
So if the embayer's tail was cut off, it was definitely by shrapnel as it was flying away. Besides, even in poor visibility, missile launches glow well, how did the pilots miss them?

[Vladimirsky]

Portable MANPADS - Igla, Strela, Verba - on chase with a homing head on the engine. Judging by the power of the explosion, it was something from this series. A larger missile simply cuts the plane.

[Shurik70]

Please note that the plane crashed at an airport in Kazakhstan.
If he had been shot long before the crash, the pilots would have reported it.
Therefore, the shot was fired just before the crash.

[Commissar Kitten]

Quote: Shurik70

If he had been shot long before the crash, the pilots would have reported it.

There is an implicit assumption here that the pilots would have clearly understood that the plane had been shot at, and this is not obvious.

[jonht]

that's the thing, the holes are in the tail, and the MANPADS missile - Igla, Strela, Verba, explodes when it hits the engine or in the latest versions at a minimum distance, it seems they wrote within 3 meters from the heat source. But this model of the embayer has engines on the wings, which means the holes should be in the wings and fuselage, but certainly not in the tail. And the MANPADS - Igla, Strela, Verba do not come from the upper hemisphere, but explode in the lower one. So there should also be holes in the tail of the fuselage and the rear stabilizers. But the fuselage is intact there and the empennage is not cut by shrapnel either. In general, let them figure it out. If there was a missile, it exploded very far from the plane and much higher. Too little damage for an air defense system.

[Zoer]

Quote: jonht

All anti-aircraft missiles are aimed at oncoming courses, and even if they fire in pursuit, the warhead is still detonated in the forward sectors of the aircraft,

Isho odYn iksperd air defense...
The tail of the Il-22, shot down over the Sea of ​​Azov and able to make an emergency landing in Anapa.

[jonht]

and a bunch of holes in the tail section of the fuselage and horizontal tail, which is clearly visible in your photo. And look at the photo to the article, the differences are clearly visible.

[Zoer]

Quote: jonht

and a bunch of holes in the tail section of the fuselage and horizontal tail, which is clearly visible in your photo. And look at the photo to the article, the differences are clearly visible.

Of course there will be differences. Do you think that the warhead of, for example, the S200/S300 or Patriot SAM that flew into the Il-22 is different from the warhead of the Pantsir SAM, or not? No need to put a good face on a bad game. It is absolutely clear that the nature and location of the damage are IDENTICAL. The difference is only in the density and size of the holes.
And for dessert. The Azerbaijanis have gone to the Russian House in Baku. But again, only our grandfather's snot allows this. When these creatures killed 5 of our peacekeepers point-blank and shot down our helicopter, the Guarantor was not very upset and did not throw lightning bolts. So maybe here too, it was worth IMMEDIATELY admitting the obvious, nodding towards the Ukrainian attack on the airport, and shrugging our shoulders...

[smart ass]

Isn't it clear whose rocket it was? Obama and Trump launched it and Macron helped!

[hellcos]

Quote: Lev_Russia

So in the photo, if I’m not mistaken, these holes are turned outward, that is, the damage occurred somewhere from the inside or from the side.

The news says that the holes are through. That is, on one side inward, on the other outside.

[Zoer]

Quote: Lev_Russia

It's like this in the photo, if I'm not mistaken.

You are confusing them, and all the others, and intentionally. It is clearly visible that the edges of the holes are turned inward.

[nordscout]

ZovSailor, confidence in the "work" of MI-6 in this direction is not excluded... I will even suggest, moreover, that the British drone was launched from the territory of Azerbaijan and detonated a warhead with striking elements, like those of the Russian air defense forces... A well-orchestrated British "multi-move" with Turkish-Azerbaijani "back-up dancers" at the highest level...

[ZovSailor]

nordscout
Today, 21: 08
ZovSailor, confidence in the "work" of MI-6 in this direction is not excluded... I will even suggest, moreover, that the British drone was launched from the territory of Azerbaijan and detonated a warhead with striking elements, like those of the Russian air defense forces... A well-orchestrated British "multi-move" with Turkish-Azerbaijani "back-up dancers" at the highest level...

Oh, my dear, what the hell are you so hungover about? It seems like your second mustache has come unglued?
In the fragments, if you believe the photos, the damage occurred from within, even a schoolchild would say, guess why?
And in the Malaysian Boeing 2014, when hit by a Bandera weapon from outside due to a breach in the cabin's hermetic seal, the differences are huge, verstehen? Did you understand?

[Simargl]

In the fragments, if you believe the photos, the damage occurred from within, even a schoolchild would say, guess why?

Because the schoolboy is stupid.
A smart schoolchild will read:

Initial inspection revealed a number of through and non-through damage

... and assume that the entrance holes are on the other side.

[ZovSailor]

Simargl
Yesterday, 23: 51
A smart student will read: and assume that the entrance holes are on the other side

How is it that international experts from several countries have not put forward the main versions for more than a month, demanding additional examinations, but at the forum they are already voicing details?

[faridg7]

Quote: ZovSailor

How is it that international experts from several countries have not put forward the main versions for more than a month, demanding additional examinations

All this time, international experts have been coordinating the text of the commission’s conclusion, which will satisfy those who support them.

[Commissar Kitten]

Quote: ZovSailor

How is it that international experts from several countries have not put forward any main versions for over a month?

Because they say in plain text on the very first page of the report that this is not their task.

The investigation conducted within the framework of this report does not presume to establish the share of guilt or responsibility of anyone. The criminal aspects of this event are presented within the framework of a separate criminal case.

[Commissar Kitten]

Regarding the origin of the objects, it is clearly stated that they came from outside:

Through-and-through damage to the aircraft indicates penetration of external objects into the aircraft structure.

[Simargl]

and are they already announcing the details on the forum?

I didn't give details. You gave an assessment (delirious in my opinion):

In fragments, if you believe the photo, the defeat came from within, even a schoolchild will say, guess why?

Defeat from the inside?! Seriously?! And didn't you find it strange that the source of the defeat would have to be somehow shoved into the tail stabilizer without attracting public attention?!

[nordscout]

ZovSailor, are we on first-name terms yet??? I don't remember us herding geese together as kids... But you can depict anything you want in a photo, especially for the feeble-minded and not particularly "burdened" with professional knowledge and "expert" skills.....

[smart ass]

You remind me of a character in our rush. And who did this??? Ayyyyy!)))))

[by land]

The most mysterious thing: don't modern air defense systems have systems for identifying friendly aircraft? After all, every civilian aircraft is equipped with a transponder that freely announces its identification.

[vertirex]

Civilian aircraft do not have a combat friend or foe identification system, and the system is completely closed to external and civilian influence or use.

[smart ass]

Yeah, everyone around is to blame, Trump, Obama and Al-Qaeda

[ZovSailor]

Lev_Russia
Today, 20: 34
So in the photograph, if I'm not mistaken, these holes are turned outwards, that is, the damage occurred somewhere from the inside or from the side... However, it is difficult to draw any conclusions from this photograph alone... And the Azerbaijanis can continue to roll over to Russia, but it is unlikely that this will make it any easier for anyone... In general, the truth, as always, is somewhere nearby... request


That is absolutely true, there is other evidence that has not been made public to this day (more than a month has passed) in order to exclude any claims in the future, following the example of the Malaysian Boeing.

[Botanologist]

The armor has cubic-shaped striking elements, and in the photo there are holes from cylinders or a prism. Buk is also not suitable, and after Buk it would not have flown anywhere. Maybe an air defense drone of our smaller brothers?

[topol717]

The shell has cubic-shaped striking elements,

The cube can give rectangular holes. BUT! The probability that the fragment will fly strictly perpendicular to the target, as you understand, is close to 0. And several such holes are nonsense. And such a plane, such fragments pierce right through.

[D16]

The armor has cubic-shaped striking elements, and in the photo there are holes from cylinders or a prism.

The 9M335 SAM has a rod-type warhead.
https://aftershock.news/?q=comment/17970802#comment-17970802

[D16]

The link contains photographs of the striking elements removed from the aircraft.

[Zoer]

Quote: Botanologist

The armor has cubic-shaped striking elements, and in the photo there are holes from cylinders or a prism.

If the cube enters the plane not parallel to the edge, then the hole will be in the form of a rhombus. And if at the same time it is tangent to the plane, then it will be a prism.

[Botanologist]

If so, then the cubes were flying in different directions, which is kind of weird. Or was he being hit with missiles from all sides?

[Zoer]

Quote: Botanologist

If so, then the cubes were flying in different directions, which is kind of weird. Or was he being hit with missiles from all sides?

The cubes were rotating around their axis, while flying apart in a cone from the warhead. Moreover, according to Azerbaijan, there were two hits, so yes, and from different sides too.

[Berkut752]

There are so many aviation specialists here, it's scary.............................

[Eugene 62]

In some places, the damage has a regular rectangular shape.

Did the birds peck at you with their beaks?

[fiv]

A preliminary report on the need to conduct a ton of expert examinations. Words for the sake of words. Russia is not participating in the investigation, as I understand it. Another boil with anti-Russian pus is maturing.

[Montezuma]

Quote: fiv

Words for the sake of words. Russia is not participating in the investigation, as I understand.

You misunderstand, specialists from the Russian Federation are also participating in the investigation. Here is a paragraph from today's publication of the Azerbaijani news agency Turan:

The investigation is ongoing. Kazakh, Brazilian, Azerbaijani and Russian aviation agencies are participating in the investigation. Kazakh authorities promise to give a full report.

[belovvladimir]

The strange thing about the holes is that they are rounded from the inside out, and some have a rectangular shape from the outside, I could be wrong, but this is definitely not shrapnel from the air defense system, maybe someone planted the explosive device in advance during loading, and at the appointed time there was an explosion, in the first videos from the crash site, and before that, there was smoke in the cabin, smoke, I repeat, I could be wrong, I hope the experts will figure it out!

[ZovSailor]

belovvladimir
Today, 20: 39
The strange thing about the holes is that they are rounded from the inside out, and some have a rectangular shape from the outside, I could be wrong, but this is definitely not shrapnel from the air defense system, maybe someone planted the explosive device in advance during loading, and at the appointed time there was an explosion, in the first videos from the crash site, and before that, there was smoke in the cabin, smoke, I repeat, I could be wrong, I hope the experts will figure it out!

I am also inclined to one of the versions about the explosion in the luggage compartment of the aircraft at the appointed time remotely, and additionally, based on previously voiced materials and excerpts from the recordings of the crew and dispatchers, fragments of phrases about the explosion of an oxygen cylinder inside the cabin, in order to divert the investigation from the main cause of the disaster.
A collision with birds is unlikely, otherwise they would have been indicated in the report with the photo tracks.

[kit88]

Quote: ZovSailor

I am also inclined to believe that there was an explosion in the luggage compartment.

At least take a look at the photo. What luggage compartment? The tail fin is cut through with shrapnel. What trajectory did the shrapnel fly from the luggage compartment to the tail fin? The tail fin here is not all-moving like on the Su-57, it always stands in flight.

But of course yes, I saw myself how Zelensky and Biden were shoving something into the engine back in Baku. I'm telling you for sure!

[Mazunga]

They were looking for Jews there with a skull measurer

[belovvladimir]

kit88 whether Biden pushed Zelensky, this is not discussed, and you can continue to enjoy the glory of gray Russia!

[Zoer]

Quote: kit88

At least take a look at the photo. What luggage compartment? The keel is completely cut up by shrapnel. What trajectory did the shrapnel fly from the luggage compartment to the keel?

These fairy-tale uryakly will justify anything, even a sink on the ceiling and the flow of water upwards into it, just to get Grandpa off the hook. Well, they're fanatics, what can you expect from them? It's not common sense, after all.

[Volunteer Marek]

Yes, on the first day it was clear to everyone that the air defense had worked. Another question: why was there an airliner at this time, in this place?

[Boycott]

It was clear only to those in a hurry, like the Azerbaijani big boss. Thinking people only have questions, even after preliminary decoding of the black boxes. For example: who believes in the coincidence of at least 3 events, an anti-aircraft missile, a bird hitting the engine and the explosion of oxygen cylinders? By the way, a question for the anti-aircraft gunners: can a fragment penetrate the cylinder through the casing? (And even in this case it should not explode, in my opinion. But I am not entirely sure)

[Commissar Kitten]

There were no birds in the engine and no balloon explosions. That's what the radio said as part of the guesswork about what happened.

[Zoer]

Quote: BoyCat

Thinking people only have questions,

Thinking people have only one question. Why did the Persians almost immediately decide to admit their mistake with the Ukrainian aircraft and air defense, and our grandfather turned out to be so irresponsible?

[nswe]

report https://www.gov.kz/uploads/2025/2/4/84f9ee83af415a658fc3d2830d317889_original.3875924.pdf "According to the document: air traffic controllers warned the crew of the AZAL aircraft about the introduction of the "Carpet" plan in Grozny. An important detail is E) IN THE AREA OF THE AIRFIELD, MALFUNCTIONS IN THE OPERATION OF SATELLITE NAVIGATION SYSTEMS (GNSS) ARE POSSIBLE. Those that have electronic warfare, those that don't - it doesn't matter. The "Carpet" leaves for the alternate due to the weather conditions of Grozny in Baku. (Is it leaving us?) "Carpet" leaves from the approach, those "Carpet" turn on after leaving. To the alternate. The striking elements Fig. 8243, 21 do not, to put it mildly, coincide with the striking elements of the missile. pantsir 22s forums.airbase.ru Pantsir ZRPK (1/116) [Balancer.Ru Forums] … Because they use as sources what the press services give them, like: their production is being mastered in Naberezhnye Chelny. Experimental copies already appeared last year. That is… (p. 141 of 116) forums.airbase.ru type of destruction - the missile does not have a contact target sensor... a swarm of fragments opens up in front of the target, the target flies into the fragmentation field and dies. The striking elements of the Pantsir 141s missile, see the damaging effect of fragments + features of missile guidance and detonation, see there, below It seems to me that Ukraine /UAVs/ and the USA /guidance/ are in trouble

[kit88]

Similar damage was found on the left engine and left wing aircraft

What kind of "specialists" compiled this report? In the official document "... and in the left wing".

Where did they find the left wing of the Embraer 190?
The corncob has two wings. They teach this right at the entrance to the aviation school.

[Simargl]

Which of the "corn dusters" has two wings?
The Embraer 190 has two wings: left and right. It won't even take off with one.

[Arisaka]

The wing seems to be the entire bearing surface. But what was meant was probably the left and right wing consoles.

[kit88]

Quote: Simargl

The Embraer 190 has two wings: left and right. It won't even take off with one.

This is how Simargl decided. So be it.

Dear Sir, have you ever heard the words monoplane and biplane? Well, a biplane is a "maize" - two wings. A monoplane is a regular modern airplane - one wing. But the wing has two planes - right and left.
The correct one would be the left plane of the wing.
But this is according to science. Which is the official report on a flight incident, such mistakes are not allowed there (which is what I pointed out). But in everyday life it is so easy, even if the plane has four wings - two large ones in the front and two small ones in the back.

[Simargl]

The correct one would be the left plane of the wing.

and also in the left engine and wing

But this is according to science. Which is the official report on the flight accident

It remains to see this report.

[Ramiz Babayev]

Now stones and minuses will be thrown at me. Especially since I am a citizen of Azerbaijan and an Azerbaijani by nationality. Have you read the report? This is the first question. Have you seen all the photos in the report? Did the temporary reference points monitor the negotiations? So what is it that the majority of commentators write that I am not me and not my f...? I apologize for my French. Before shaking the air, read the report carefully. And everything is described there clearly. One of the most important points in the report: note that the problems on board began in the recording at 05:13, and the "Carpet" plan is mentioned at 05:21. That is, the "Carpet" plan was announced 8 minutes after the tragedy. Look carefully at all the photos in the report and then it will become clear how the tragedy occurred. The report talks about external influences. Azerbaijan never said that the attack on the plane was deliberate. We are saying that it was a tragic accident. So have the courage to admit it. They can immediately remind me of the Russian helicopter shot down during the second Karabakh war. So we immediately took the blame, made official apologies and paid all the compensation. Although there were a lot of questions there.

[Hole puncher]

The Russian position is "NEVER CONFESS", so don't expect anything else.

[Commissar Kitten]

This time, perhaps, they will admit it. When the topicality of the topic dies down. Since this does not threaten anything in terms of information consequences, except, perhaps, a complete refutation of the theses "Russian air defense could not have mistakenly shot down a civilian airliner because professionals serve there / there are transponders / it is clear from the radar mark that it is civilian" etc., which they waved all the way in relation to the Malaysian Boeing.

[Neo-9947]

Quote: Ramiz Babayev

the majority of commentators write that I am not me

The majority of adequate commentators write that everything is clear, what is there to comment on... what happened happened. Or they write nothing at all.
And about the fact that it was done by cormorants, Mossad agents, MI6 and MI5, as well as aliens from outer space - these are the authors of comments about Kyiv in 2 days and that it's time to bang. But there are plenty of those.

[nswe]

problems on board began at 05:13 on the recording, and the "Carpet" plan was announced at 05:21. That is, the "Carpet" plan was announced 8 minutes after the tragedy. Look carefully at all the photos in the report and then it will become clear how the tragedy happened

owl on globe
1.18. Additional report information
DVZ: Due to weather conditions in Grozny, it is leaving for Baku on reserve AKHY8243 (is it leaving us?) it is leaving from the approach /about the bird strike = 0/
and only then
05:15:57 E Grozny control failed, bird strike in the cockpit. Aa bird strike and 2 seats in the cockpit exploded.
I assume that: 1. the Ukrainian Armed Forces, on a tip from the US, brought the UAVs to the side and blew them up. That's why they're keeping a tight-lipped silence /for comparison - the hype around the collision of the side with the helicopter/; 2. a missile blew up the UAV and its fragments cut up the side
The aircraft was flying along a known route and altitude, the UAV was brought to the intersection point in advance. And that's all.
+ Type of damage - the missile has no contact target sensor... a swarm of fragments opens up in front of the target, the target flies into the fragmentation field and dies
https://tvzvezda.ru/news/2021222145-X43OE.html

[Zoer]

Quote: Ramiz Babayev

So why do the majority of commentators write that I am not me and not my p...s?

Now it was offensive... The majority of reasonable people understood everything immediately. But the fanatics of the believing KGB officer will aggressively and loudly prove all sorts of fables with birds, cylinders, rugs and other nonsense. Please do not pay attention to this loud minority. Especially since some of them are actually on the payroll, on a bot farm.

[Yuri L]

I remember Governor Beglov identified the main culprits of the destruction of the dome of the "SPB Arena". They turned out to be cormorants. The cormorants did not calm down. And here in the photo you can clearly see the traces of their nasty beaks.

[Zoer]

Quote: Yuri L

I remember Governor Beglov identified the main culprits of the destruction of the dome of the "SPB Arena". They turned out to be cormorants. The cormorants did not calm down. And here in the photo you can clearly see the traces of their nasty beaks.

It wasn't BigLov. It was his deputy. Slyunyaev-Albin. Although, what does it change, all of them there are inadequate.

[Million]

I think that everything is already known. And now the bargaining is on about which official version to issue.

[Ezekiel 25-17]

Judging by your nickname, you are Lithuanian?...

[January]

And judging by your nickname, are you a Jewish prophet?
Want to dig into genealogy? I'm Russian. Of Polish-Russian descent. Will you demand analyses?

[Ezekiel 25-17]

No, my great-great-grandfather was the general treasurer of the Zaporozhian Host. And this is a historical fact. We knocked off your heads pretty well then. And now your time will come too.

[Glagol1]

Based on the crew's conversations with the dispatchers and the foreign fragments /shards/ in the rear of the plane, we can now make an assumption. Since the fragments do not match the Pantsir PE, but are similar to those used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces drones, most likely a Ukrainian drone crashed into the plane. However, the crew misjudged the event and reported that there was a collision with birds and an explosion of an oxygen tank. The impact resulted in hydraulic failure, and here is the first question for the crew - 3 hydraulic circuits do not fly out from an explosion of an oxygen tank, and especially from a bird. Oh well. According to aviation manuals, in the event of hydraulic failure, well, except for one circuit, the crew must land at the nearest port, provided that there is an appropriate runway and the weather is in accordance with the crew's meteorological minimum. The weather was acceptable everywhere, except for the windy weather in Baku. But there it is almost always. The runway in all ports is more than enough for an airplane like the Embraer. However, it seems that due to hydraulic failure and drone attack, the pilots had an emotional breakdown. This is evident from the negotiations. They misjudged the cause of the strike, failed to perform landing procedures at the nearest port, started looking for alternatives, and eventually found one that was not the closest. The skill of manual piloting in the conditions of aircraft malfunctions due to the long flight to Aktau was not enough, the aircraft made a rough landing in normal weather conditions. Well, what about the root causes? It looks like it was a British provocation with the SBU or GUR performing the task. Drones are launched at a civilian airport far from the LBS. A cover plan is announced, electronic warfare and air defense systems start working. Civilian aircraft in the airport area immediately find themselves in a difficult situation, communication is poor, GPS is jammed, everyone is nervous. In this muddy water, the Anglo-Ukrainians caught their bird and reported everything to Aliyev in the form they needed. The provocation was a success, Moscow is again under the hate.

[Tikhonov_Alexander]

It seems that the initial information about the crash indicated that the plane had attempted to land twice at a Russian airport and failed to land, and that some oxygen tanks inside the plane had exploded. It is possible that the pilot was insufficiently qualified to land the plane, and that an explosion inside the baggage compartment was carried out by unidentified special services...,

[Rtu]

Georgia couldn't be dragged into a war with Russia - so Azerbaijan will do. And the army there is better prepared during the Karabakh crisis. And now the Russian House has been kicked out. The local sultan is all puffed up. All talk about the helicopter disaster with Raisi, which, by the way, took off from there, has been drowned out.