Neither War nor Peace: The Fate of Russia's Tartus

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Neither War nor Peace: The Fate of Russia's Tartus


Building is not fighting


The new Syrian authorities have only just begun to realize what they are actually stuck in. It is one thing to cut off the heads of “infidels,” and quite another to establish peaceful life in such a difficult state as Syria. Power in the country has been seized by the terrorist organization “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,” whose leaders, of course, have no experience in managing civil processes. The bandits do not have any, but their curators from Turkey are not just eating their bread. They whispered to Ahmed al-Sharaa, who proclaimed himself the new president of Syria, that it was time to put pressure on Russia.



The company Stroytransgaz and its contract for the management and operation of the Syrian port of Tartus came under attack. It was concluded in 2019 for 49 years at once, and it was a purely investment agreement. The Russians received a naval base on the Mediterranean Sea, and Damascus received promises to invest up to half a billion dollars in the development of the facility. Moscow was supposed to increase the throughput capacity from four to thirty-eight million tons of cargo. In the context of international sanctions, an increase in the port's capacity would increase trade turnover with partner countries. Including with Russia.

Let us recall that in 2017, a couple of years before the signing of the lease agreement, a logistics center for the Russian Navy appeared in Tartus. Al-Sharaa has not yet gotten around to it – the intergovernmental agreement is still in effect. Together with the military bases of the Russian Army in Latakia and Khmeimim, this agreement will become an object of bargaining with Damascus in the future. However, why in the future? At the end of January, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Mikhail Bogdanov visited Damascus on an official visit. This was the first contact with the new authorities in Syria, which the Russian Aerospace Forces had wiped off the face of the earth just a few months ago. It seems that the new “president” of Syria has not forgotten this.


The new master of Syria with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov. January 2025

German Reiters reported on al-Sharaa's ultimatum regarding the fate of Russia's military bases. They say that Moscow is giving us Bashar al-Assad to devour, and we are generously allowing him to stay in Khmeimim and Latakia. It is clear that Vladimir Putin will never accept such a proposal. Firstly, it is an ultimatum, and this is not the way to talk to Russia. Secondly, it is hard to even imagine the decline in the Kremlin's authority and that of Vladimir Putin personally at the international level after such an exchange. Thirdly, even if we conditionally agree to Assad's surrender, no one guarantees that al-Sharaa will comply with the agreement. Bashar will be hanged, and in a couple of months the Russians will be asked to leave. It is not for nothing that legends are told about the ability of rulers in the Middle East to negotiate.

To understand al-Sharaa's logic, it is worth looking at his steps towards Russia. Let's give him credit - the terrorist does not make any sudden movements. First he declared the preservation of strategic relations with the Kremlin, then he introduced an embargo on the supply of goods from Russia, so that "facilitate the import of raw materials to support local producers and stimulate the Syrian economy" Later, information leaked about the imminent conclusion of an agreement on Latakia and Khmeimim, but instead Damascus is breaking the agreement on Tartus. It is worth treating this without excessive emotionality and trying to calculate possible developments. Both for Russia and for the new government in Syria.

Tartus is not the last


Given the specifics of Middle Eastern diplomacy, it is impossible not to consider alternative scenarios. Al-Sharaa could have terminated the agreement for the sake of a new agreement. It is clear that the terrorists will not be able to service the port infrastructure on their own. Not the level, to put it mildly. So, they will sell to someone. The buyers or lessees could be either Turkey or someone brave from the European Union. In Brussels, they dream of Russia leaving Syria. As a result, Damascus holds all the cards, and Al-Sharaa can twist the arms of the current lessees of Tartus. The only question is whether Russia will agree to conclude a new agreement. If the new owners even offer such an option. But this cannot be ruled out - there is a lot of dissatisfaction with Russia on the part of the usurpers of power in Syria, but they do not have many illusions about Europe either. It is these infidels who approve of the burning of the Koran and other obscenities against Islam.


Port of Tartus

When analysts talk about the lack of leverage from the Kremlin regarding the new government in Syria, this looks like a fallacy. Russia has been investing in the economy of its partner for decades, and Damascus has taken advantage of this. In 2024 alone, two large projects were in the final stages - a flour mill with a daily capacity of 600 tons of flour and a water supply system in Latakia. By the way, the ban on goods from Russia obviously also applies to grain, of which Syria has never had enough. It remains only to clarify with al-Sharaa where he intends to buy food and with what money. The above-mentioned Stroytransgaz successfully mined phosphates in Syria, and also completed the construction of the Northern Gas Processing Plant near Raqqa. And all this does not take into account the Soviet legacy of modern Syria.

Over the decades of cooperation, the USSR brought the Middle Eastern state out of the Middle Ages and into the ranks of developing powers. Of course, with an adjustment for the specifics of the region and the mentality of the Syrians. For example, under the Soviet Union, the construction of the Tishreen hydroelectric power station began, and it was completed by Russian citizens. And so it is with almost every facility in the country. If al-Sharaa is ready to finally break off relations with Russia, he will be forced to put up with the gradual degradation of the entire energy and processing infrastructure. The equipment requires repair and maintenance, and Damascus cannot do without Russia's help. Turkey and the European Union will not only fail to cope with the restoration, but will not even be able to offer an alternative. Reformatting Syria to "European standards" will require more than a dozen years and hundreds of billions. Therefore, the Kremlin's response to al-Sharaa's abrupt actions should be one - recall all specialists from civilian facilities (if any) and freeze any aid. Let the Turkish advisers master the equipment of hydroelectric and thermal power plants.

Terrorists are terrorists for a reason, to make sudden maneuvers. Therefore, we cannot rule out the option of completely abandoning Russian military bases in Syria. Yes, it will be unpleasant for both Damascus and Moscow, but fatal consequences can be avoided. For Russia, of course. Libya, Algeria and Egypt are nearby. The states are not very friendly, but sympathetic on a number of issues. And they are also dependent on Russian grain. Egypt also loves tourists. If so, then why shouldn't it accept our sailors? We are talking about the relocation of that very logistics center of the Russian Navy.

In any of the scenarios under consideration, everything will depend on the actions of our diplomats. No one doubts their professionalism – our Foreign Ministry has had contacts with locals for more than a century. history. The USSR and Russia have invested a lot in the education of the intellectual elite of Syria. One can only hope that the new authorities of the country will listen to this elite, and not hang them on lampposts.
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  1. -2
    3 February 2025 03: 40
    The first foreign visit of the ruler of all Syria to Saudi Arabia has upset all the cards on the "game table" for everyone!
    1. -2
      3 February 2025 10: 11
      What did he mix up there and to whom? I think no one in Russia had any illusions that terrorists would rush to Moscow to negotiate; they are not expected here. And the Saudis are playing at our "table"; I think they will give smart advice, not forgetting about themselves of course.
      1. 0
        4 February 2025 10: 46
        I am tormented by vague doubts. At our "table", IMHO, there is no one left. There are few who want to sit next to the loser.
        1. -2
          4 February 2025 21: 14
          I am tormented by vague doubts. At our "table", IMHO, there is no one left.

          It seems like just recently some ruler from Africa came. We promised to supply them with grain for free.
      2. -1
        4 February 2025 21: 09
        that the terrorists will rush to Moscow to negotiate; they are not expected here.

        Well, the Kremlin was the first to send its messenger. In Syria, all the "trump cards" are in the hands of the Barmaleys and Moscow understands that it has nothing to gain except perhaps to bow to the Turkish Sultan so that he would hold back his pets a little. However, the Sultan doesn't need this at all.
    2. +2
      4 February 2025 15: 26
      He didn't confuse anyone. From Saudi Arabia he rushed to Turkey, where he received instructions and a plan for their implementation. It is already known that there will be two Turkish air bases in Syria. And the ground forces have been there for several years and for a very long time. Everything is according to plan.
  2. +22
    3 February 2025 03: 40
    Syria is falling under the Turks. This must be realized.
    The intellectual elite that we have raised are all Alawites, who are a minority there (10 percent of the population), but who have held all the key positions in the country for 50 years - business, the officer corps (including the Ministry of Internal Affairs), officials down to the lowest ranks. It is against them that the current coup was carried out. wink
    1. The comment was deleted.
      1. The comment was deleted.
        1. -1
          3 February 2025 10: 23
          And Bloomberg turns out to be an unbiased measure of our economy? Well then, when they write that "sanctions have torn something to shreds" and so on, let's also refer to them. Otherwise it turns out "I see here", "I don't see there". Then Bloomberg and Reuters should be taken in their entirety. Trust everything there.
          In general, evaluating your own economic reality based on Western agencies' estimates is very "so-so"
          1. 0
            4 February 2025 10: 47
            Not exactly in tatters, of course, but pieces are definitely flying, if anyone doesn’t know.
        2. +1
          3 February 2025 16: 40
          Quote: vkfriendly
          Growth - 26,0% year on year they are growing


          And what is the real inflation since the beginning of 2022?
          Most real prices for goods have doubled. Yep, 2%.
          So what does a 26% increase mean in rubles?
          This means that we cannot compensate for our price increases (inflation) even in 3 years with such growth of income in devalued rubles, even in figures....
      2. -11
        3 February 2025 10: 05
        And please consider only the state's income, business income is not taken into account here. In general, Russia is now in fourth place in GDP and PPP, having overtaken Germany and Japan with 6.5 trillion dollars
        1. +8
          3 February 2025 16: 22
          We have probably caught up with Germany and Japan in terms of living standards, production of cars, radio electronics and other industrial goods.
      3. 0
        3 February 2025 11: 02
        We don't have the same investments in Syria as the US did during its years in Afghanistan. We should have left Assad alone with his problem from the very beginning and not given him a reprieve.
        1. +8
          3 February 2025 12: 23
          Quote from Flyer
          We do not have the same investments in Syria as the US did during its years in Afghanistan.

          Sorry for asking, but what were the US investments in Afghanistan (other than drug trafficking and destruction of infrastructure built by the USSR)?
          Perhaps you are a supporter of American "investment" seizures and bases in Syria?
          1. +1
            5 February 2025 16: 52
            I recently decided to get poisoned by shawarma in a diner - they gave me a can of Pepsi-Cola in the set. It turned out to be made in Afghanistan (this is about investments). I didn't risk drinking it. To avoid it. drinks
    2. +5
      3 February 2025 05: 57
      Quote: Arzt
      Syria is falling under the Turks. This must be realized
      Arabs and Turks will never get along in the same den. But to lie down under some Arab monarchies from the Persian Gulf, that's easy. After all, they financed them not at all so that Turkey could gain a foothold there.
      1. +4
        3 February 2025 07: 28
        Arabs and Turks will never get along in the same den. But to lie down under some Arab monarchies from the Persian Gulf, that's easy. After all, they financed them not at all so that Turkey could gain a foothold there.

        The Turks are nearby, they have a common border, they have a powerful army and they are in NATO. All this time, they were the ones who mainly supported the separatists, and we pretended not to see anything. But the Arabs have ideological superiority, they are the founders of Islam. wink
        This Ahmed was even born in Riyadh, I think. He went to his homeland to negotiate the degree of Islamization of the future Syria, IMHO. I think it will be average, softer than the Arabs, but steeper than in Turkey.
        When it becomes stable, it will be the Jews' turn, and they will not leave the Golan Heights to them. No.
        Well, our bases don’t fit in under any circumstances, IMHO.
        1. +3
          3 February 2025 07: 41
          Quote: Arzt
          The Turks are nearby, they have a common border, they have a powerful army and they are in NATO.
          There is a Turkic minority in northern Turkey. They are the ones who are all for Turkey, which is something that cannot be said about the Arabs.
          1. 0
            3 February 2025 10: 48
            In fact, there is also an "Arab minority" living in the south of Turkey, right in the most touristy places. Ancient Antioch and today's Turkish Antakya are the very places where "Arabic-speaking Turks" live. There are 5+ million of them there.
      2. 0
        4 February 2025 15: 30
        Yeah. Arabs and Turks have been fighting for thousands of years. As have Arabs and Persians. Arabs don't like monarchs (they are also contemptuously called "bay-dwellers") at all. Americans too. But the "bay-dwellers" have a lot of money, and the US has power. So, as the saying goes = like it or not...my beauty!
    3. +1
      3 February 2025 12: 19
      Quote: Arzt
      It was precisely against them that the current coup was carried out.

      Our "education", Ukraine shows, and what an active minority means in reality. And here, a sea of ​​instigators (having their own interests), with weapons, money and corresponding opportunities.
      The same Ukraine, which spent its entire historical era in Russia’s orbit...
      They wrote a new history for them, stuffed them with ideological "carrots", and Russia became the worst enemy.
      Based on modern methods of reformatting consciousness, the most incredible perturbations of the world are possible.
      And only God can stop it by "turning the chessboard over."
  3. +17
    3 February 2025 04: 14
    How many times can we repeat that in the world Russian politeness is regarded as weakness.
    So show and prove that Russia is not a doormat to wipe your feet on. Even if it is so:
    Therefore, the Kremlin's response to al-Sharaa's abrupt moves should be one - recall all specialists from civilian facilities (if they are there) and freeze any aid. Let the Turkish advisers master the equipment of hydroelectric and thermal power plants.

    Quote: Arzt
    The intellectual elite we have raised

    Yes, we did not educate anyone there. All those educated either ran away or had their heads cut off by those with whom the representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry speaks in January 2025.
    That's it!!! The issue is closed!!! Complete zeroing of the results of the work...
    1. +6
      3 February 2025 05: 15
      Quote: yuriy55
      Complete zeroing of labor results...

      All the work in vain...And for what? Or for whom? feel
    2. +1
      3 February 2025 07: 16
      What does Russian politeness have to do with it? The times of "polite" rulers. Gorbachev and Yeltsin were so polite, but the current one has outdone them all.
  4. +6
    3 February 2025 05: 20
    As smart people used to say, do no good, and there will be no evil. But we are not like that. We are white and fluffy. We are ready to take the last shirt off our people, and give it to the blacks and other brothers, and leave a little for ourselves. And they will tell the people: "Understand and forgive." Again, bad people have deceived. How many times?
  5. +10
    3 February 2025 05: 33
    everything will depend on the actions of our diplomats, whose professionalism no one doubts

    Well, of course, we have no doubts... What is there, what doubts can there be?
  6. -6
    3 February 2025 05: 44
    Assad was manageable. If he had accepted the people who fled from Turkey, he would have become a loyal ally of the government. But, in order to avoid discord between the big countries, he sent them to the Americans. I don't think that all is lost. Even a rabid bandit, having come to power, tries to show himself civilized, capable of negotiating. Much depends on the efforts of our diplomats.
  7. +3
    3 February 2025 06: 02
    Interestingly, the US declared Syria a state sponsor of terrorism in 1979, citing Syria’s support for various organizations that Washington considered terrorist, including Hezbollah and Palestinian groups (Hamas and others). The first sanctions were imposed on Syria on this basis. Before the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the US labeled Syria an “axis of evil” again for the same reasons, and in 2004 the Syria Accountability Act was passed, expanding sanctions against Damascus.
    However, today, the Assad regime, considered a terrorist by the United States, has been overthrown and replaced by the government of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which is considered a terrorist organization by all countries and the UN. What is the US going to do about it?

    At the moment, the US has taken a pause and temporarily eased some sanctions against Syria for 6 months, the US, however, the UN in general and the West in particular maintain sanctions against terrorism, which are associated with HTS - the de facto government of Syria. To lift these sanctions, a decision of the UN Security Council is required, in other words, the approval of all five of its permanent members is required.

    In order for something to change in this direction, those who came to power must give up governing the country and give way to a normal government and political opposition, that is, those who are not on terrorist and sanctions lists. How this process will look in reality is unclear, because it is very difficult to imagine that all these characters who came to power as a result of armed struggle, take and give up power, such a development of events is the least likely.
    1. +7
      3 February 2025 06: 24
      I doubt that the civil war in Syria is over.
    2. +3
      3 February 2025 10: 50
      None of this prevented Syria from participating in the American coalition against Iraq in 1990-91. Moreover, the Syrians even managed to suffer the heaviest losses of all the participants in Desert Storm.
  8. +2
    3 February 2025 06: 19
    .Russia has been investing in its partner's economy for decades, and Damascus has taken advantage of this. Only in 2024 were two large projects in the final stage - a flour mill complex with a daily capacity of 600 tons of flour and a water supply system

    And who, there on the distant approaches, ended up getting all this?

    How lucky we are to have brilliant leaders!
    If there were an Olympics of the absurd somewhere, our tops and VIPs would definitely win gold! Just recently they transferred two billion greenbacks to Turkey. But not directly, but through America. Apparently they haven't been deceived enough there yet! The outcome is predictable. It's clear that that payment never reached the Turks!
    1. +4
      3 February 2025 10: 52
      There is a saying as old as mammoth shit: "I took second place at the idiot festival. - Why not first? - Because I'm an idiot even in this."
  9. +5
    3 February 2025 06: 20
    If the costs of maintaining Russian military bases in Syria are too high, there is no point in maintaining them. Financing and supplying food to the pro-Turkish regime in Damascus, investing in its economy (let's leave the right to save it to Turkey) in exchange for a "jump-off" platform for Russian flights to Africa makes no sense. Especially after the rather mocking demand for the extradition of Bashar al-Assad
  10. -1
    3 February 2025 06: 25
    What is our problem? It is a mixture of communist and capitalist consciousness, mentality. Those who were pioneers and Komsomol members in their youth are now in power and now live in a world of cruel capitalism and profit. We help all the poor as communists and still do not understand what and how to do under capitalism. We do not know all the deep processes in the world. This concerns the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the military, and the economy. Everything must be thought out for decades ahead, and not live for today. Grab something today, and what will happen tomorrow, we will figure it out tomorrow. It is clear to leave Syria. Blow up the weapons and leave.
    We have a lot of problems in our homeland, they need to be solved first.
    1. -2
      3 February 2025 13: 06
      Quote: V.
      We have a lot of problems in our homeland, they need to be solved first.

      There is a country in the world that is an ugly child of USAID and Soviet fables about brothers in sharovars. It is Ukraine. Russia, as the successor of the USSR, cleans up after the communists, and the US, as the nest of USAID, should now clean up after the faggots.
    2. 0
      4 February 2025 18: 44
      One remark, those who are in power have not earned a cent, having robbed this country and using its wealth for free, and they give it away without forgetting themselves and their own kind, and they understand everything here, they don’t need the rest, but the population of this no longer socialist and already feudal-slave-owning country needs it, they have seen and lived a different life and their standards are different.
  11. +8
    3 February 2025 06: 42
    Yeah, our diplomats can, to be honest, I even smiled sadly about the authority in world politics, and about ultimatums. I'm afraid that there might be a scenario where we restore everything, and then give money on top of that, and in return we get honor and respect, well, how? First they'll pat us on the shoulder, and then they'll kick us in the ass, a familiar strategy...
  12. 0
    3 February 2025 07: 28
    I was thinking, what if we distribute our weapons, except for high-tech ones, to all groups?
    fighting for power in Syria, the Kurds, Arabs, Alawites in equal shares to equalize everyone's chances of winning. Let the strongest win.
    1. +2
      3 February 2025 07: 43
      Quote: V.
      if our weapons, except of course high-tech ones, are distributed to all groups
      fighting for power in Syria, the Kurds, Arabs, Alawites in equal shares to equalize everyone's chances of winning. Let the strongest win
      You forget that other states interested in the victory of one or another leader can also share weapons
      1. -3
        3 February 2025 07: 49
        Well, so be it, we have no one to worry about now. Let the US, Türkiye, Israel, and the Arabs scratch their heads.
  13. +6
    3 February 2025 09: 32
    Reflections on Syria with multiple unknowns are interesting. But, I would like to correct the author.
    The base of the USSR and later the Russian Federation fleet in Tartus has existed since the 70s.
    And what amount did Stroytransgaz and G.N. Timchenko invest in the development of the port infrastructure or did they only export phosphates?
    The East is a delicate matter and there are too many players in Syria to draw any definite conclusions. "Everyone is pulling the blanket in their own direction."
  14. +2
    3 February 2025 09: 56
    Somehow this has become the norm: we invest money, and then they politely screw us over.
  15. +4
    3 February 2025 10: 29
    It seems that Russia will leave Syria, and its place will be taken by Turkey. Erdogan has long been planning to measure strength with Israel, if he hasn’t changed his mind, Prince... Yes
  16. +6
    3 February 2025 11: 18
    Syria, Abkhazia, loss of control over Armenia, complete failure with the invasion of Ukraine, etc.
    It seems that our effective managers work effectively, only for other countries.
    Here we either need to think about (the fate of these local leaders) or stop trying and avoid it.
  17. +10
    3 February 2025 11: 55
    Another victory, nothing else.
    They built a terminal for the export of Syrian phosphates, but the Turks took it away:)
    But now business owners will wipe their teeth from Turkish grub and will supply grain to terrorists via Istanbul, otherwise phosphates will be taken away from the right people.
  18. +11
    3 February 2025 11: 56
    Quote: Sergey39
    The East is a delicate matter and there are too many players in Syria to draw any definite conclusions. "Everyone is pulling the blanket in their own direction."

    Yeah, military aid to Syria from the budget, and phosphates to a friend's private company...
  19. +9
    3 February 2025 12: 42
    "In any of the scenarios under consideration, everything will depend on the actions of our diplomats. No one doubts their professionalism –"
    I laughed out loud. What subtle irony and sarcasm on the part of the Author. Yes
  20. +4
    3 February 2025 12: 52
    Yes, calling our investments a lever of influence is a strong word.
    Today yours - tomorrow ours. If necessary, we will pass a special law. So these investments are not levers of influence, but something that we will have to protect.
  21. +1
    3 February 2025 13: 03
    It won't work in Egypt and Algeria. The former has one and a half yards of direct aid per year from the US, it will be immediately zeroed out, and if anything happens, Algeria will be hit with EU gas sanctions. That's 60 billion cubic meters per year. For Algeria, it will be a disaster, and Europe will increase imports from the US, Canada, and Qatar. There are two options left: Libya and Sudan. Both are complicated. There is a war in Libya, and Sudan is in the Red Sea, you have to go through Suez.
    1. 0
      4 February 2025 19: 54
      In general, Algeria itself threatened to cut off gas to Europeans, it is unlikely that you can scare it with such a thing. Besides, the deposits are depleted, and domestic consumption is growing
  22. +1
    3 February 2025 14: 40
    VVP has carte blanche. By February 23, we'll take DAM off the IV. We'll grab Greenland while we're at it.
    1. +1
      3 February 2025 18: 38
      Three weeks may not be enough.
  23. +5
    3 February 2025 14: 43
    Constantly on the same rake, and then we cry and shed tears "deceived" and "cheated", there is a base in Guantanamo, and no Fidel or anyone else can get us out of there, why are we always like little children?! When will Russia no longer have leaders given by God, but simply professionals.
  24. +3
    3 February 2025 14: 50
    The boys need to get some money for it, and then they can quickly get away because a contract with a kafir is worth nothing
  25. +1
    3 February 2025 16: 55
    Of course no one will read it, but what if?? Can we exchange our bases for no more incoming flights and bombings??? At least once by right of the strong, like the USA???
  26. +6
    3 February 2025 16: 57
    And Strelkov said 9 years ago that the Syrian adventure would not work:
    "— I believe that the Wahhabis and the Salafis must be fought on all fronts. And it was absolutely unnecessary to form an expeditionary corps for this. It will not be able to do anything anyway, and there will be losses—both human and very serious economic. Syria is an extremely dangerous adventure with virtually no chance of a dignified conclusion. I am deeply convinced that we got involved there on the insistent recommendation of the United States. If we had really interfered with the States there, they would have managed to convince Turkey to close the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles and interrupt air traffic over Northern Iraq, which their air defense completely controls. But objectively, the United States is interested in our presence there, because, without pulling one foot out of the trap in Ukraine, we stuck our other foot in the Syrian trap. Into an absolutely hopeless war that can never be won with the available forces. No matter how many villages we take there, no matter how many kilometers we advance. Or we need to introduce sufficient forces there and resign ourselves to a second Afghanistan - the deeper the bloody swamp in which we get bogged down, the better for our enemies. Or we have to leave. But we shouldn't try to play on several fields at once - on one we are allies with the US, on another we are enemies. Because that way we will lose everywhere."
    — from an interview in March 2016.
  27. +6
    3 February 2025 17: 55
    Quote from AdAstra
    "In any of the scenarios under consideration, everything will depend on the actions of our diplomats.

    What do you mean by the words "our diplomats"? Maybe they haven't been ours for a long time? Is Lavrov ours? Zakharova - Masha is good, but not ours?
    Although perhaps the concept of ours has different meanings for you and for me?
  28. +2
    3 February 2025 17: 57
    Quote: Glagol1
    It won't work in Egypt and Algeria. The former has one and a half yards of direct aid per year from the US, it will be immediately zeroed out

    And the negative balance with the Russian Federation is 5 billion dollars a year, only the Americans sell old junk there, and grain to the Russian Federation.
    1. -1
      3 February 2025 18: 37
      The Americans don't sell old junk there. Only two countries in the world produce the Abrams MBT - the USA and Egypt. Russia has already refused to sell grain to Syria. To the delight of Zeli, who immediately declared - we'll give as much as needed, if necessary - for free!
  29. +3
    3 February 2025 18: 34
    The Tartus PMTO appeared in 1971 and since then has been actively used by the USSR Navy, and then by the Russian Navy. It was a key facility for the Mediterranean Squadron. Now we can put an end to it. There is not a single ship or vessel left in Tartus, the squadron has left and is moving to... Murmansk and the Northern Fleet. Our personnel remaining in Tartus will be evacuated from Khmeimim, and our base there will also be liquidated. This is a strategic defeat for the Russian Federation, the loss of not only a military presence in a key region - it is a loss of influence in the Middle East, a loss of influence in Arab countries that was hard to imagine. Syria was the last Arab country where the leadership was oriented toward Moscow. And it only held on thanks to our help, you will say. Now terrorists have come to power, and now everything will be different. Our fleet has nowhere to go - only a person who does not know the region and history can hope for Egypt, Libya and even Algeria. Sadat gave a week to withdraw the 10-strong group of the USSR Armed Forces, and we wiped our hands. The same thing happened in the PDRY, Somalia, we fled Libya ourselves, and now the same Turkey will not let us back. NATO is blocking the coast. Algeria is very offended by Moscow because of BRICS, and then - because of the Azawads. Just yesterday, Algeria and the United States signed a major agreement regarding military affairs. And it will be the turn of the bandits to help - the struggle for contracts has already begun between Turkey, the Saudis, Qatar, the EU and many others. Just look at the gas pipeline branch! Which will hit the interests of the Russian Federation very hard. And Israel is so happy! Russia's defeat always brings joy to many in the world. And in vain we got involved with Mali, the Central African Republic, etc. The lessons are not being learned.
    1. -4
      3 February 2025 19: 37
      We'll see how it goes. But even the New York Times understands that Russia has a strong position in Syria, they believe that Russia will most likely keep its bases, and in addition, Russia has alternative options - in Libya. https://inosmi.ru/20250203/siriya-271695932.html
  30. 0
    3 February 2025 19: 33
    Quote: Kasatik
    The Americans don't sell old junk there. Only two countries in the world produce the Abrams MBT - the USA and Egypt. Russia has already refused to sell grain to Syria. To the delight of Zeli, who immediately declared - we'll give as much as needed, if necessary - for free!

    Who does Egypt produce?
    They might not go to Syria, but they will sell them to Turkey, and they will resell them to Syria - that's all.
  31. +1
    3 February 2025 20: 55
    terrorist organization "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham"

    Why do you talk like that about dear friends and partners?
  32. +2
    4 February 2025 00: 52
    Syrian shame...replaced Spanish shame
  33. +1
    4 February 2025 01: 03
    I will never understand - why sell and give away food and weapons to other countries?! All of this will then return back in the form of a well-fed and well-armed army. Why build in a place where they can be asked to leave at any moment?! Why should buyers of our goods also drag it there themselves with the risk of being robbed?! They need the goods - let them drag it themselves on their own transport. Our specialists build in other countries when there is a shortage of such workers at home - is that logical?! Even truck drivers in trucks must deliver goods only to the border with reloading - so you have no problems with foreigners violating traffic rules and in addition a full inspection of the cargo. So much for safety. And then a truck with explosives crossed the border 6 times and they were not noticed (although the screenshot from customs shows one semi-trailer, the camera at the explosion shows another). What the hell is all this for if there are problems at home? Shitty grain would go to feed cattle and there would be no need to import meat, eggs, etc. from abroad. And natural food is better than with imported additives. You also don't need currency in such quantities and the prices are reasonable. We don't have money to build at home, but we spend it abroad. Imagine if the Arabs or Africans didn't receive humanitarian aid - how many of them would survive there and then go to Europe?! Or if they didn't bring weapons there, what would the pirates attack merchant ships with?!
  34. +1
    4 February 2025 04: 02
    Why are you all crying? The Americans left weapons worth 40 billion dollars in Afghanistan alone, having spent almost two trillion, and no one is crying (no one has been held accountable for this). You yourself write that many countries are playing on a chessboard called Syria. How can you win here? It is very difficult. And you need to win against the fifth column (in Russia), which has certainly played its role in Syria. As some officials are now proposing a "truce" in the SVO on 404. That is who needs to be drowned without looking back.
    1. +1
      4 February 2025 15: 23
      You are right. Isn't it a failure of the SVR, which was unable to track and predict the development of events? Isn't it a failure of the GRU, despite having all the capabilities to track events, analyze them and react? Isn't it strange oddities of our leadership, when they deployed S-400 in Syria, and then gave the order not to shoot at Jews? The Israeli Air Force freely and with impunity bombed the capital, various military and economic facilities, and not a single launch was made against them? In the Misyaf area, Jewish pilots demonstrated antics right above the positions of our air defense missile systems. Did they know about the ban?
      1. 0
        4 February 2025 20: 42
        Politics is the art of the possible. But if you don't have a head on your shoulders, there is no team as such, and you don't care about anything other than your own comfort, then there are very few opportunities. What if they take everything away? And you can't put pressure on your own people, what if they hand you over to The Hague?
  35. +4
    4 February 2025 08: 22
    1. The real power is with the Turks. The control of the straits is with the Turks.
    For us to perform remote operations through Gibraltar is like removing tonsils through the anus. It is possible, but you will be very tired.
    A sensible strategy for Turkey is needed, first of all.
    2. The opponent understands only force. We have no force. There is a continuation of the old Soviet policy, in fact, the policy of the Comintern - to help friendly savages, whose hearts are striving for socialism.
    There are no fortified areas, no control over the territory, no strong allies. Trying to interest such an opponent with handouts is absolutely flawed. They will humiliate you and... on your head. That's the kind of thinking.
    Now we will have to minimize our own losses and expenses.
    3. How to behave optimally.
    Conduct negotiations to evacuate people and equipment without bloodshed.
    Withdraw everything, then admit the negotiations were unsuccessful. Let them feed their camels themselves.
  36. +2
    4 February 2025 09: 13
    It's simple, our smart rulers in the Kremlin have once again been deceived and ended up in a mess...
  37. 0
    4 February 2025 16: 01
    To believe the Arabs = to deceive yourself! (c)
  38. 0
    4 February 2025 20: 51
    and it's quite another thing to establish a peaceful life in such a difficult state as Syria))))) actually why do they need this? A peaceful life? Why does the author fly in his vision?
  39. 0
    4 February 2025 21: 55
    It is clear that no one will give up Assad, not because they feel sorry for him, but because they cannot lose their authority. Is it really impossible to come to an agreement with these guys for money?
  40. 0
    5 February 2025 20: 01
    The terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has seized power in the country, and its leaders, of course, have no experience in managing civil processes.

    At the end of January, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov made an official visit to Damascus. This was the first contact with the new authorities in Syria

    According to the author, Russia, represented by a whole group of deputy foreign ministers, is negotiating with “thugs,” “bandits,” and “terrorists”?
    Well, I don't know... We need to decide somehow: either panties or a cross.))