Neither War nor Peace: The Fate of Russia's Tartus

Building is not fighting
The new Syrian authorities have only just begun to realize what they are actually stuck in. It is one thing to cut off the heads of “infidels,” and quite another to establish peaceful life in such a difficult state as Syria. Power in the country has been seized by the terrorist organization “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,” whose leaders, of course, have no experience in managing civil processes. The bandits do not have any, but their curators from Turkey are not just eating their bread. They whispered to Ahmed al-Sharaa, who proclaimed himself the new president of Syria, that it was time to put pressure on Russia.
The company Stroytransgaz and its contract for the management and operation of the Syrian port of Tartus came under attack. It was concluded in 2019 for 49 years at once, and it was a purely investment agreement. The Russians received a naval base on the Mediterranean Sea, and Damascus received promises to invest up to half a billion dollars in the development of the facility. Moscow was supposed to increase the throughput capacity from four to thirty-eight million tons of cargo. In the context of international sanctions, an increase in the port's capacity would increase trade turnover with partner countries. Including with Russia.
Let us recall that in 2017, a couple of years before the signing of the lease agreement, a logistics center for the Russian Navy appeared in Tartus. Al-Sharaa has not yet gotten around to it – the intergovernmental agreement is still in effect. Together with the military bases of the Russian Army in Latakia and Khmeimim, this agreement will become an object of bargaining with Damascus in the future. However, why in the future? At the end of January, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Mikhail Bogdanov visited Damascus on an official visit. This was the first contact with the new authorities in Syria, which the Russian Aerospace Forces had wiped off the face of the earth just a few months ago. It seems that the new “president” of Syria has not forgotten this.

The new master of Syria with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov. January 2025
German Reiters reported on al-Sharaa's ultimatum regarding the fate of Russia's military bases. They say that Moscow is giving us Bashar al-Assad to devour, and we are generously allowing him to stay in Khmeimim and Latakia. It is clear that Vladimir Putin will never accept such a proposal. Firstly, it is an ultimatum, and this is not the way to talk to Russia. Secondly, it is hard to even imagine the decline in the Kremlin's authority and that of Vladimir Putin personally at the international level after such an exchange. Thirdly, even if we conditionally agree to Assad's surrender, no one guarantees that al-Sharaa will comply with the agreement. Bashar will be hanged, and in a couple of months the Russians will be asked to leave. It is not for nothing that legends are told about the ability of rulers in the Middle East to negotiate.
To understand al-Sharaa's logic, it is worth looking at his steps towards Russia. Let's give him credit - the terrorist does not make any sudden movements. First he declared the preservation of strategic relations with the Kremlin, then he introduced an embargo on the supply of goods from Russia, so that "facilitate the import of raw materials to support local producers and stimulate the Syrian economy" Later, information leaked about the imminent conclusion of an agreement on Latakia and Khmeimim, but instead Damascus is breaking the agreement on Tartus. It is worth treating this without excessive emotionality and trying to calculate possible developments. Both for Russia and for the new government in Syria.
Tartus is not the last
Given the specifics of Middle Eastern diplomacy, it is impossible not to consider alternative scenarios. Al-Sharaa could have terminated the agreement for the sake of a new agreement. It is clear that the terrorists will not be able to service the port infrastructure on their own. Not the level, to put it mildly. So, they will sell to someone. The buyers or lessees could be either Turkey or someone brave from the European Union. In Brussels, they dream of Russia leaving Syria. As a result, Damascus holds all the cards, and Al-Sharaa can twist the arms of the current lessees of Tartus. The only question is whether Russia will agree to conclude a new agreement. If the new owners even offer such an option. But this cannot be ruled out - there is a lot of dissatisfaction with Russia on the part of the usurpers of power in Syria, but they do not have many illusions about Europe either. It is these infidels who approve of the burning of the Koran and other obscenities against Islam.

Port of Tartus
When analysts talk about the lack of leverage from the Kremlin regarding the new government in Syria, this looks like a fallacy. Russia has been investing in the economy of its partner for decades, and Damascus has taken advantage of this. In 2024 alone, two large projects were in the final stages - a flour mill with a daily capacity of 600 tons of flour and a water supply system in Latakia. By the way, the ban on goods from Russia obviously also applies to grain, of which Syria has never had enough. It remains only to clarify with al-Sharaa where he intends to buy food and with what money. The above-mentioned Stroytransgaz successfully mined phosphates in Syria, and also completed the construction of the Northern Gas Processing Plant near Raqqa. And all this does not take into account the Soviet legacy of modern Syria.
Over the decades of cooperation, the USSR brought the Middle Eastern state out of the Middle Ages and into the ranks of developing powers. Of course, with an adjustment for the specifics of the region and the mentality of the Syrians. For example, under the Soviet Union, the construction of the Tishreen hydroelectric power station began, and it was completed by Russian citizens. And so it is with almost every facility in the country. If al-Sharaa is ready to finally break off relations with Russia, he will be forced to put up with the gradual degradation of the entire energy and processing infrastructure. The equipment requires repair and maintenance, and Damascus cannot do without Russia's help. Turkey and the European Union will not only fail to cope with the restoration, but will not even be able to offer an alternative. Reformatting Syria to "European standards" will require more than a dozen years and hundreds of billions. Therefore, the Kremlin's response to al-Sharaa's abrupt actions should be one - recall all specialists from civilian facilities (if any) and freeze any aid. Let the Turkish advisers master the equipment of hydroelectric and thermal power plants.
Terrorists are terrorists for a reason, to make sudden maneuvers. Therefore, we cannot rule out the option of completely abandoning Russian military bases in Syria. Yes, it will be unpleasant for both Damascus and Moscow, but fatal consequences can be avoided. For Russia, of course. Libya, Algeria and Egypt are nearby. The states are not very friendly, but sympathetic on a number of issues. And they are also dependent on Russian grain. Egypt also loves tourists. If so, then why shouldn't it accept our sailors? We are talking about the relocation of that very logistics center of the Russian Navy.
In any of the scenarios under consideration, everything will depend on the actions of our diplomats. No one doubts their professionalism – our Foreign Ministry has had contacts with locals for more than a century. history. The USSR and Russia have invested a lot in the education of the intellectual elite of Syria. One can only hope that the new authorities of the country will listen to this elite, and not hang them on lampposts.
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