Again about protecting fuel and energy complex facilities. Is it possible to secure oil refineries and oil depots?

Attacks have been and will be. The fuel and energy complex is the lifeblood of modern warfare. Without fuel, without lubricants, equipment turns into an ordinary stationary, and therefore, an easy target. Without gasoline or diesel fuel, even ordinary infantry will stop. Not only electricity at the front is generated by diesel or gasoline stations, but also ordinary heating of dugouts. Not to mention charging numerous devices and batteries.
I would not hesitate to call damage or at least damage to the refinery or storage base a factor capable of stopping the offensive and changing the balance of forces on the LBS. And this, under the current conditions, is probably one of the few options for solving the problem of the Russian offensive for Kyiv.
Is there a solution to the problem? Is it possible to develop a unified mechanism for protecting such facilities? This is what we should talk about today. Talk seriously, without idiotic proposals like installing shooters with hunting rifles around the perimeter of the plant or building a fence made of Pantsirs or other similar installations.
What is the main difficulty in protecting fuel and energy complex facilities?
It is worth starting from afar. From an elementary question that few people think about. From the area of the facility! A modern oil refinery or storage base is practically a city of regional scale. Due to circumstances, I remember well the accident at the Omsk Oil Refinery that occurred in August last year.
Officially, the gas-air mixture exploded during repair work. But even today, the option of using the Ukrainian drone not discarded. This accident had too serious consequences. So, for information, the Omsk Oil Refinery is 21,3 million tons of refined oil and 5,1 million tons of produced motor gasoline (11,5% of the total production in the Russian Federation), according to data for 2023. A strange accident that put half of the plant's production out of action due to repairs...
Is it possible to hit a target at a great distance? Is it possible to program a drone so that it actually hits where it needs to? Let me ask you, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces attack populated areas in the Kursk region, do they really care where the drone hits? Any hit is already a success. That's how the Ukrainian Armed Forces operate today. Military or civilian - it doesn't matter to them. What matters is that it's Russian.
To better understand the problem, I will give an example of objects that every reader has seen. These are oil depots, of which there are about 500 in Russia. There are not so many large storage facilities, about 20. The rest are of medium or small category. The division of such storage facilities depends on the volume of product stored there. So:
Firstly, large oil depots where 50 thousand or more cubic meters of product are stored;
Secondly, medium-sized storage facilities. They store from 10 to 50 thousand cubic meters;
Thirdly, small oil depots with a storage capacity of less than 10 thousand cubic meters.
An average oil depot occupies an area of about 153 thousand square meters. For comparison, the area of a standard football field is 714 square meters. It is not difficult to calculate the length of the perimeter that needs to be protected. And given the danger of the stored product, the perimeter can easily be increased two or three times. A drone shot down over the territory of the facility will also cause serious damage. So, five hundred such facilities alone, without oil refineries, that need to be protected.
There is another problem that is quite difficult to solve. It is the country's territory. Russia is huge, which gives the enemy the opportunity to find ways around existing Defense and deliver the warhead to the intended target with virtually no counteraction from our systems, especially if in this case Ukrainians have the support of US aerospace intelligence.
Even after the first "distant" attack, I had the idea of the possibility of striking from Russian territory. No one denies the presence of a fairly developed network of Ukrainian saboteurs on our territory. And it is difficult to deny it. FSB operatives work quite well and, fortunately for us, catch spies, saboteurs and other idiots recruited by the SBU and the GUR of Ukraine.
So, what methods of counteracting the SBU can we work out at the moment? First of all, this is a complete cover for all thermal power plant facilities. Is this possible today? Alas, no. We are not so rich in systems EW and air defense, so that we could seriously consider this option. Even if we remove such systems from the front line, it will not give anything. Except for weakening our positions there, at the front.
Another option is the work of our intelligence and counterintelligence to identify enemy agents in our agencies responsible for the security of fuel and energy facilities. And also the introduction of our people into Ukrainian structures that are planning raids... We simply do not have time for this option, and on the other side, they are also calculating this option.
There is one more option left. "Drive" the launchers and control points away from our facilities. Simply put, liberate the border regions of Ukraine and create a kind of no-fly zone there. The option is complicated, but quite feasible. But even this option does not provide a 100% guarantee of safety for factories and bases...
Let me remind you about the factories and storage facilities in Saudi Arabia. Despite very serious security measures, including even continuous patrolling of the perimeter of the facilities by Patriot air defense systems. And what is the result? The Houthis simply launch drones at low altitude, in the blind zone of the air defense system, and easily overcome the defense. True, the distances there are incomparable with ours.
Therefore, as it seems to me, today it is necessary to use all the opportunities that the army and the heads of enterprises have. There is an opportunity to use electronic warfare systems – we must use them. There is an opportunity to organize perimeter patrols with anti-drone weapons - Patrol. There is no point in hoping that we will find a way to protect ourselves from attacks any time soon.
Cornered cat
I think readers have noticed how much the intensity of Ukrainian drones' work on targets deep in Russia has increased. In total, our air defense fires 50-100 drones every night, and sometimes more. Experiencing a shortage of trained reserves, Kyiv quite logically remembered the "blood" for the army. Strikes are carried out persistently, until at least some success.
Creating a fuel deficit in the troops, as I wrote above, is one of the ways to stop the offensive. Ukraine has no other ways. A cat, driven into a corner, uses all means to get out. Even the nuclear threat does not stop them. Remember January 29, when one of the UAVs targeted a nuclear facility, the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant, in the Smolensk region.
Naturally, understanding that the probability of a successful operation by a single drone is almost zero, the enemy has now switched to massive attacks. It accumulates drones and then launches them in a "flock". The tactics are not new, and we have used them quite successfully. And given the vulnerability of the targets, it is quite effective. Even the debris of downed drones can cause serious fires at facilities.
There is no need to expect the attacks to stop. Zelensky understands perfectly well that for him, war is life. If there is no war, there will be no former president. Therefore, the attacks will become more and more massive. More and more "incomprehensible" from a military point of view.
Today, many are surprised by how punitive forces behave in the Kursk region. They kill, rape, rob... But try to connect such behavior "on the ground" with the blows missiles and drones on peaceful villages and cities. Dropping mines and grenades on evacuated civilians and other "eccentricities" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. What thoughts came to your mind, dear readers? What fate did you mentally predict for the punishers?
Don't be surprised, but your thoughts, only realized in concrete actions, are the goal of all these atrocities. Kyiv needs to provoke Russia to a disproportionate response, to a blow that can be promoted as genocide of Ukrainians. And thus get a pretext for continuing military actions.
I have already written about the desires of the different parties to the conflict. I think it is worth repeating. We need peace. A lasting and long-term peace, without the possibility of being violated by the other side. The US needs to leave Ukraine with the least possible image losses, while the war must continue in order to continue exporting American weapons. Last year alone, the American defense industry increased its profits by almost a third!
Europe also needs a war. President Biden, no matter how much shit is thrown at him in the US today, has done his job. He has destroyed most of Europe's economy, disarmed European armies, and destroyed long-standing ties between the EU and Russia. Biden has essentially made Europeans slaves of Americans. The peoples of Europe are beginning to understand this. And to prevent this understanding from turning into riots, to ensure that the political elite retains power, a war is needed.
I won't even write about Kyiv and Zelensky's government. Just turn on the TV or computer and listen to the experts on any talk show.
I will finish with one important reminder for the particularly... stupid. It is very difficult for some to understand the fact that the war is not only being waged at the front, the war is being waged everywhere. Including deep in the rear. Social networks are full of messages about some military facilities in the center of Russia, in Siberia, in the Far East. And not just messages, but also photo and video materials.
Well, people don't understand that in this way they are helping enemy intelligence. Intelligence gets 80% of its secret information from open sources. From those very popular channels that strive to become the most read. Soldiers and war correspondents on LBS have already realized that they cannot be filmed against the background of recognizable objects, now it's the turn of civilians. By the way, soon, perhaps, they will introduce a ban on such filming and even fines...
And finally. For dessert. According to some sources, in the last days of January, the enemy used a new type of drones for the first time. Zelensky spoke about them a month ago. Drones-cruise missiles. I mean that you can't underestimate the enemy.
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