Wars 2025: Afghanistan-Pakistan, Poland-Belarus, Moldova-Transnistria, Baltic States-Russia, USA-Venezuela

Recently, in the material Wars and Armed Conflicts 2025: Iran, Israel, Türkiye, Armenia, Azerbaijan, we looked at possible wars and armed conflicts that could flare up as early as 2025 due to the imperial ambitions of the Turkish “Sultan” Erdogan and the deadly confrontation between Iran and Israel.
However, no less hot spots in 2025 may arise in other regions of the planet, including those “right next door” to our country, and we will talk about them today.
Afghanistan-Pakistan
Unexpectedly, at the beginning of 2024, former allies Afghanistan and Pakistan clashed. But what allies? In fact, Pakistan was an ally of Afghanistan only during the Soviet era, and recently their relations can hardly be called friendly.
Border conflicts between Afghanistan and Pakistan have occurred repeatedly, but in 2024 and early 2025, the intensity of hostilities increased significantly.

Taliban supporters carry out terrorist attacks, attack Pakistani border posts and military convoys. Attacks were launched on the port city of Gwadar and the naval base in the city of Turbat, and on January 3, 2025, the Taliban took control of a settlement 24 kilometers from the Afghan-Pakistani border.
Pakistan responds with strikes aviation and plans to conduct a counter-terrorism operation in order to eradicate the Taliban movement (still banned in Russia) “once and for all,” which can hardly be considered an achievable goal.
It is significant that Pakistan is a nuclear power weaponsOf course, at the current level of escalation there is no point in talking about its use, but the seeds of a possible future conflict have been sown, who knows what kind of shoots they will produce?
Ukraine/Poland-Belarus
Recently, information about the preparation of an invasion of Belarus by some "democratic" forces has been increasingly appearing. It is assumed that the invasion could be carried out both from the territory of Ukraine and from the territory of Poland.

It is still unclear what the invasion will look like – in the format of sabotage and reconnaissance groups or a full-scale military operation, like the one that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) carried out in the Kursk region. It will almost certainly be synchronized with protests and mass riots inside Belarus.
Can someone say that Russia and Belarus are bound by a union treaty, that Alexander Lukashenko threatened to use nuclear weapons in the event of an invasion?
But the Ukrainian Armed Forces invaded Russian territory in the Kursk region - there are no Belarusian troops there yet, so the participation of the Russian Armed Forces in repelling the attack is also an open question. Of course, no one will give Lukashenko nuclear weapons and the Oreshnik IRBM, or rather, they can be deployed on Belarusian territory, but they will be controlled from Russia.

The Belarusian ambassador meets with the new Syrian bandits and gives them 50 MAZ trucks – is this some kind of international madness, handing out your country’s money to God knows who?
Having created a northwestern bridgehead, Russia could have long ago cut Ukraine into two parts, preventing both the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the Kursk region that had already taken place and a possible future invasion of Belarus, but this did not happen.
Why? Didn't you decide to do it yourself or did the "multi-vector" Alexander Lukashenko not allow it?
Some might say that Russia does not have enough strength for another front, but if at a certain stage we abandoned offensive actions and switched to long-term defense, then reserves could be found, and Ukraine, cut in half, would lose its ability to resist within a few months.
Ukraine/Moldova-Transnistria
A northwestern bridgehead that would cut Ukraine in two is also necessary for another reason: Transnistria is at risk. The Russian enclave is already under siege, and the situation could worsen at any moment.

Both Moldova and Ukraine can attack Transnistria, but most likely the attack will be carried out from both sides. Without direct Russian intervention, Transnistria will fall very quickly, and it is possible to intervene only by passing Ukraine in parts along a straight line from Belarus.
Of course, on the Moldovan side, military operations will be carried out by the armed forces of NATO countries under Moldovan flags, which need to eliminate the Russian enclave for the final absorption of Moldova by Romania and its inclusion in the NATO bloc.
In turn, Ukraine needs another "victory" in the form of a beautiful "media" victory over Russia, and the bonus will be huge warehouses with ammunition. Despite the fact that most of the ammunition stored in the said warehouses has expired, they can still be used effectively, as we previously discussed in the material Millions of tons of expired ammunition: not disposed of, but put into use.

Explosion of warehouses in Transnistria could be comparable to nuclear
The invasion of Ukraine and NATO forces into Transnistria will lead to a humanitarian catastrophe. After what Ukrainian units and mercenaries did in the Kursk region, hardly anyone will doubt that they will massacre civilians in Transnistria as well.
Baltic States-Russia
We are talking about threats of a naval blockade of Russia voiced by a number of Baltic countries – Sweden, Finland, the Baltic states and others. As a “trial balloon,” the Finnish Navy has already seized a tanker with Russian oil under the far-fetched pretext of damaging underwater cables on the bottom of the Baltic Sea.
If we do not reach an agreement with Trump, and he really does introduce new sanctions packages, then the Baltic countries may really decide to blockade our country.

Tanker with Russian oil seized by Finland
We talked about the possibility of this, as well as possible ways to solve this problem, back in December 2022 in the article "Convoys and military transport ships. When will they start arresting Russian oil tankers?".
And you can use unmanned kamikaze boats (UBKs) with no identifying marks, equipped with Starlink communications equipment, to attack military and civilian vessels those countries that participate in attacks on ships carrying Russian cargo.
At the moment, nothing is known about any measures taken by Russia in response to the provocative actions of the Baltic countries, we are again waiting for something that will probably “resolve” itself. If we “wipe it off”, as usual, then soon our ships will be “plucked” all over the world.
USA-Venezuela
Why Venezuela? It's quiet there for now?
It's quiet for now, but given how Trump is planning to clean up America's "backyard," it's possible that Venezuela will be dealt with quickly and harshly, most likely with the help of the intelligence services, with the demonstrative presence of a couple of carrier strike groups.
We won't be able to help Venezuela in any way, it's even strange that the US hasn't "mastered" it yet. It's a pity that all our material investments in this country will most likely go to waste. I wonder if Maduro will be killed or, "possessing phenomenal intuition and instinct", he will manage to escape in time and also move to Russia for permanent residence?

When are you coming to us?
In general, we have some strange urge to invest in assets that we cannot protect later, and as a result we only feed parasites – Russian financial aid and loans to Venezuela amount to billions of US dollars.
It will be especially funny if the weapons that we supplied to Venezuela end up in Ukraine, of course not with us, but with our enemy.
Among those delivered to Venezuela, we have:
- 12 Su-30MKV fighter-bombers;
- 46 Mi-17 transport and combat helicopters;
- 10 Mi-35M transport and combat helicopters;
- 3 heavy transport helicopters Mi-26;
- 12 anti-aircraft missile medium-range air defense missile systems (SAM) Buk-2ME;
- 2 divisions of long-range S-300VM air defense systems;
- 12 short-range air defense systems Tor-M1;
- 2 coastal missile systems "Bal-E" (8 self-propelled launchers);
- 92 tank T-72B1V;
- more than 100 BMP-3M and BMP-3K;
- 114 BTR-80A;
- 48 self-propelled guns "Msta-S";
- 13 self-propelled guns "Nona-SVK";
- 12 MLRS "Smerch".
Well, and all sorts of little things...
Maybe it’s time for Nicolas Maduro to start transferring all of this to Russia, so to speak, as payment for living?

Let's not suffer from our generosity once again...
One possible but unlikely upside to Trump's overseas "pranks" is that the US could focus on the North and South American continents in order to eliminate or minimize China's influence in those regions, and grab more than it can "digest," at least for a while.
Perhaps in this case a “window of opportunity” will arise – to come to an agreement with the US and “divide up” Europe, minimizing the influence of Great Britain.
Conclusions
As we can see, the beginning of 2025 does not promise us anything good. The fact that the conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan may expand is nothing, it is even good, as long as it is far away from us, even if Pakistan “opens the box” of using nuclear weapons, which, however, is extremely unlikely.
Here are Belarus and Transnistria - if these spots become “hot spots”, then our country’s problems will increase many times over.
The robbery of Russian courts will not only have a negative impact on the economy, but will also lower the authority of our country below yet another “baseboard”.
And a “democratized” Venezuela could become a source of a significant amount of weapons for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which they will then use against Russia, especially if Trump and I do not reach an agreement.
There are probably many more potential hot spots – the world is rapidly moving towards a global redistribution of resources and influence, so the fate of the weak will be unenviable.
Russia is weak not because of its army, not because of its technology, and not even because of its economy, but only because of its indecisiveness and unwillingness to make tough but effective decisions.
It's time to change course, and not hope that good Uncle Trump will come and "sort everything out."
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