Why does a hawk disguise itself as a dove... Some thoughts on the negotiations between Moscow and Washington

The media is constantly debating Trump's proposal. "Let's stop the war at the negotiating table! Enough bloodshed! Let's save the lives of our soldiers!" and so on. I read such materials and remember the old truth that every person has repeated at least once in their life, but which we "forget" when we need to make a difficult decision.
“The road to hell is paved with good intentions”
Many nations have such a popular expression. In different versions, but the meaning does not change. Some "humanitarian" decisions often lead to huge losses in the future. What seemed to be a blessing turns out to be a grief for millions. This is not philosophy, it is story humanity.
Today, many political scientists are talking about the need to hold new elections in Ukraine. It is all wrapped up in a beautiful "wrapper". President Putin said that there is no legitimate government in Ukraine. This means that we must "slow down" the offensive and give the Ukrainians the opportunity to choose a legitimate president. And then it will be possible to negotiate and so on...
I often write that in the history of mankind much of what is happening today has already happened. Classic. There was also what foreign policy experts and military men argue about today. Let me give a couple of quotes from the memoirs of Marshal of the Soviet Union Vasily Ivanovich Chuikov about the first conversation with the German representative Krebs about peace negotiations on May 1, 1945.
- No, to start negotiations and end the war.
- However, - I catch him again, - Hitler's will clearly states that he is creating a government of people "who will carry out the war by all means." Wouldn't it be better for you to agree to end the war first and then begin negotiations?
Krebs hesitates for a moment before answering, and then replies:
“The answer can be given by my government, not me...”
The German Reich in 45 and the Ukrainian Reich today are in the same position. The front is bursting at the seams. The West is turning away, trying not to get a jab from a Russian soldier. For Kyiv, today is not yet May, but "spring" has already come. Ukraine is "swelling" from internal contradictions, from the number of corpses of its soldiers and complete "hopelessness" in the future. "Bam" is already close...
Negotiations as a last resort to deceive the Russians
Those who are interested in the history of Russia have often asked themselves why our victories often quickly became either victories for others or even defeats. I will not delve into history, today we are talking about a specific country, specific events that took place before our eyes. Nothing new, just a reminder for those with a fish memory…
Remember the first negotiations concerning the LPR and DPR, which caused a storm of indignation in these republics and in Russia? That same Ukrainian Khasavyurt in 2014-2015? How cleverly Frau Merkel fooled us! "Minsk-1" and "Minsk-2", which stopped the advance of the NM republics and ultimately led to the suffering and death of hundreds of people...
What have we got by 2022? Well, honestly, without diplomacy. We got a million-strong Ukrainian army, not counting the 200 already fighting, armed to the teeth with Western equipment and weapons, Western advisers and instructors in the Ukrainian Armed Forces and other "delights" that our fighters have been "erasing and erasing" all these years. Has anyone not seen this?
So, for your information, with what forces did we start the SVO in 22? According to officially announced data, it was 250 thousand servicemen! Almost a fivefold advantage! And do you remember the new weapons? All these Turkish Bayraktars, HIMARS installations and long-range 155-mm howitzers with guided missiles and so on. Let's add to this a fairly dense Defense...
It was then that the famous "to the borders of '91" appeared. It did not just appear. In principle, taking into account the "arithmetic", it was a completely feasible task. Only the courage of our soldiers, the professionalism of the officers and the military leadership talents of the generals saved the situation. There are many questions about the situation of '22 even today. For example, why did bombs, still from Soviet stockpiles, appear at the front quite a long time after the beginning of the Central Military District...
Did anyone in the West talk about the need for negotiations back then? At least one politician? No, they talked about the collapse of Russia, about a strategic defeat, about the destruction of the Russian army and other future "woes" of our country. Did anyone talk about a humanitarian catastrophe in the combat zone, about the death of civilians? No one! The death of civilians is a "by-product of war"...
Did anyone remember the international agreements concerning prisoners? The Internet was littered with videos of prisoners being abused, and... silence. These were Russian prisoners. Not Ukrainians. And the average Westerner, no matter what they say today, was aware of what was happening, supported and supports what is happening. So the whining about the past "good times for the average person" does not affect me at all. The "Cat" "scraped together enough to cover its own back" after all...
I can't help but recall the partial mobilization in Russia. Simply because I consider this event a turning point in our society, our consciousness "broke". The country suddenly realized that this is not a war with Ukraine, this is a war for the lives of Russians, for Russia.
We suddenly realized that we are not only Tatars, Chechens, Buryats, Yakuts, Ossetians and hundreds of other peoples of Russia, we are all Russians. I recently watched a video of four Akhmat fighters who had just captured an enemy stronghold. They laugh: "A Russian, a Dagestani, a Yakut and a Bashkir... Try to stop the Russian army." The 300 mobilized in '000 became the "parents" of the 23 volunteers who joined the army last year.
Now about the sad part. War kills and maims. This is not a computer game, but a real fight for life. The fight of each and everyone together. Losses in war are inevitable. Recently, President Putin named the ratio of losses of the Russian Armed Forces and the Ukrainian Armed Forces. One to five. Videos from the front line are simply horrifying in the number of uncleaned corpses.
I will not bore the reader with my "arithmetic", especially since it is based on approximate figures, but it is worth mentioning that Ukraine has practically exhausted its human resources. Today we have enough reserves to continue the war, while Kyiv, even in the case of mobilization of 18-year-olds, can call up 350-400 thousand people. Which, given the losses that the Ukrainian Armed Forces suffer daily, will last until August-September at most...
I think that's enough "reminding". Let's get back to the topic of negotiations. To how timely the "peacemaker" Trump appeared. Somehow it's hard to believe that a staunch opponent of Moscow, the initiator of sanctions pressure on Russia, suddenly became our friend, suddenly concerned about the lives of our soldiers. This doesn't even fit with the latest statements of the American president.
Nobody has cancelled the task of destroying Russia for the West. Trump is just the leader of the main Western country. Trump is a businessman, which means he should be considered as a businessman. That is, the military component is not the main thing for him. Moreover, after the incident with the aircraft carriers against the DPRK, it became clear that his “nerves” are “not made of iron.”
So, we agree to cease hostilities. The remnant of Ukraine remains under the rule of "democratic" forces. Democratic elections are held there and all the other nonsense designed to blind the people. At the same time, simply because Ukraine was not accepted into NATO, Kyiv is building up its own armed forces, receiving modern weapons and equipment from Western countries. I think that in a couple of years the army of the remnant will become strong enough... And the military-industrial complex will be quickly established at the expense of Germany, for example.
NATO, meanwhile, is pursuing a policy on the edge of foul play, forcing us into an arms race and increasing military spending. Thus, we will be forced to maintain a huge army that needs to be fed and clothed. Russia's economy will most likely withstand such a burden. But all social programs will be closed, and civilian production will fall to a critical level...
Doesn't this remind you of anything? Remember the 90s.
By the way, the "peacemaker's" statement about the price of oil fits perfectly into this scenario... Let's put it all together and we get 1991. Devaluation of the ruble, deficit of everything, exorbitant interest rates on loans, indignation of the people, including the participants of the SVO... The second perestroika, damn it...
And most importantly, we will again go for spending cuts. One of the points will be army reduction. And then we will become easy prey for NATO. The rest of the plans are known to readers. Fortunately, our liberals have been telling us for many years about the benefits of life in small countries “independent” from Moscow… So our choice is small. Either we put pressure on Kyiv and force it to capitulate, or we will be destroyed according to the same scenario that destroyed the USSR.
Instead of totals
I wanted to sum up some of the above, but interesting reports from the GUR of Ukraine appeared in the media. Budanov allegedly stated that "if there are no serious negotiations by the summer, then very dangerous processes for the very existence of Ukraine may be launched."
To be honest, I don’t believe Budanov’s statements, even if they were made. Quite often, such statements turned out to be lies or deliberately launched disinformation. Moreover, in parallel with this statement, an interesting report about the change in sentiment in Ukrainian society was published in the Ukrainian press. According to these reports, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians are in favor of negotiations. That is, Zelensky allegedly received carte blanche to conduct these negotiations.
I wonder when, before this message, Zelensky was interested in the opinion of the people? It doesn't fit somehow. And secondly, what about the decree of the president, mind you, a legitimate one, on the ban on negotiations? An illegitimate decree cannot be cancelled. A legal paradox...
What follows is even more interesting. What should we talk about? About stopping the offensive? President Putin and our military leadership have already spoken out on this issue more than once. We will not stop the BD even during the negotiations! Another phrase by Marshal Chuikov came to mind. I started with his conversation with General Krebs and will end with the same:
So, just like Marshal Chuikov once did, our command must declare the only way to end the war is the complete capitulation of Ukraine!
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