The Pacific Ocean - Beyond the Cold War Underwater War

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The Pacific Ocean - Beyond the Cold War Underwater War

In the distant days of the Cold War, the main focus of submarine confrontation was the North Atlantic and adjacent areas of the Arctic Ocean. During the Korean and Vietnam Wars, the submarine fleet If it was used, it was very limited. Now the epicenter has moved to the Pacific and Indian Ocean regions.

It is clear that this is due to the "Chinese threat", which is particularly acutely felt by the American President Trump. And the fact that for many years now the first two places in terms of the power of the nuclear submarine fleet have been held by the USA and Russia, apparently, will not last forever, since if we take the volume of investments in the industry, new players are emerging that can significantly change the balance of power.




General situation


Nuclear submarines (hereinafter referred to as SSNs) are one of the most expensive items of defense contracts, with costs amounting to tens of billions of dollars and their execution often lasting not even years, but decades. According to a report by GlobalData, the global submarine market, estimated at $37,3 billion in 2024, is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4,4% over the forecast period.

The market is expected to reach $2034 billion by 57,5, with the total value over the forecast period reaching $504,6 billion. The nuclear submarine segment is projected to account for 48,9% of the market, while the SSBN (ballistic missile submarine) segment is expected to account for XNUMX%. rockets) — 30,7%. In other words, 79,6% of the costs of submarine programs go to the development of nuclear submarines and SSBNs, the rest goes mainly to diesel-electric submarines.

One cannot ignore the experimental exotics of hybrid (using renewable energy sources) and hydrogen-powered submarines, which still make up a tiny percentage of the fleet underwater. According to forecasts, among geographical segments, North America will dominate this sector with a share of 44,1%, followed by the Asia-Pacific region and Europe with shares of 29,4% and 22,3%, respectively.

If we single out the top five countries producing nuclear submarines and SSBNs by budget expenditures on their development, production, purchase of finished floating craft or parts for them, an interesting trend will emerge. All of them are located, in whole or in part, in the Indo-Pacific region.


USA – Protecting Leadership


Ranks first in potential spending. Washington is projected to spend $213,9 billion over the next decade to build nuclear submarines. The Navy’s newest class of submarines, the Virginia class, first entered service in 2024, with 23 currently in service and plans to increase that number to 66 over the life of the program.


In terms of SSBNs, the US operates 14 Ohio-class submarines, which carry nuclear missiles, as well as four converted Ohio-class SSBNs, which carry cruise missiles. The Columbia-class SSBN replacement program currently plans to build 12 new boats, with the first expected to enter service in 2031.

Australia - instead of Britain


The US is projected to spend $10 billion on this line item in the defence budget over the next 52,8 years, having rapidly increased its spending in recent years. Australia, a newcomer to nuclear submarine production, has embarked on a two-stage plan to build nuclear submarines for the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) under the AUKUS security initiative, with significant support from the US and UK.


The first phase of the AUKUS program will result in the sale of Virginia-class submarines from the United States to Australia in the early 2030s. The Royal Australian Navy will operate up to three Virginia-class submarines, which will likely remain in service for at least 10 years, with a further two Virginia-class submarines in mothballs.

Australia will then replace the Virginia-class submarines with the SSN-AUKUS project, a joint programme with the UK that will build a new generation of submarines to replace the Astute and Virginia-class submarines in service. The UK will build its first SSN-AUKUS submarine in the late 2030s, with the first Australian-built SSN-AUKUS submarine due to enter service in the early 2040s.

Analysis by GlobalData shows that Australia's spending on AUKUS, which has already seen multi-billion pound investments in the UK and US defence industries, will rise from almost $3,6 billion in 2024 to almost $6,4 billion by 2034.

The Australian government will make an initial investment of A$127 million over three years to upgrade facilities at the Henderson shipyard near Perth, where nuclear submarines are built. Australia will also buy up to five nuclear submarines from the US in the early 2030s, and then, about a decade later, build and commission a new class of submarines, the SSN-AUKUS, with the UK. The government estimates the deal will cost Australia about A$2055 billion by 368.

Australia will give almost $10 billion to British industry over the next 5 years as part of the AUKUS nuclear submarine building program. The money will go towards designing the submarines, which will be built at the Osborne shipyard in Adelaide, Australia, and expanding the plant that will build the reactors for them.

A new commercial joint venture will be set up between Adelaide submarine builder ASC and British defence giant BAE Systems. The future class of submarines will be called SSN-AUKUS. The funds will also go towards expanding the UK-based Rolls-Royce plant that makes the nuclear reactors that will eventually power the submarines.

Meanwhile, Australian Greens senator and AUKUS critic David Shoebridge said it was clear Australia was helping to prop up Britain's collapsing submarine industry.

"There is no way the UK can afford to build the next generation of nuclear submarines without finding some sucker like Australia on the other side of the world to put in billions and billions and billions of dollars,"
" said Shoebridge.


China - instead of the USSR?


China ranks third with a projected $36,6 billion, with projected spending in 2034 at over $4,3 billion, up from $2,6 billion in 2024. The PLA Navy has been a heavy user of diesel-electric submarines since the Mao era, but has been actively modernizing its submarine fleet since the turn of the millennium.

Two Type 2006 nuclear-powered submarines were built between 2007 and 093, and four Type 2012A variants were built between 2017 and 093. Four Type 2007 SSBNs were commissioned between 2021 and 094, with two Type 094A SSBNs commissioned in 2020. The PLA Navy also has one Type 092 SSBN built in the 1980s.

China is also working on a new class of SSBNs, the Type-096. Two boats are currently under construction, and a Type-095 SSBN is under development, likely to be built at the Bohai Shipyard.

Russia - after the USSR


According to forecasts, it will spend slightly less than China on its nuclear submarine fleet over the decade — 35,5 billion US dollars. That is why it is only in 4th place. The Russian nuclear submarine fleet needs no introduction. Despite the fact that the world's first nuclear submarine was built by the USA, the USSR quickly became a world leader in the construction of such equipment during the Cold War, and only in 1993 did Yeltsin's Russia yield its position to the USA.

Nevertheless, our country still holds second place in terms of the number of nuclear submarines, although China and, in the future, Australia are already hot on its heels. However, determining the share of expenses on nuclear submarines in total defense expenditures is a difficult task in light of the NMD and the shift in emphasis toward land warfare.

It is safe to assume that any planned cuts in defence spending will likely be felt in other services before they affect such a vital area as the submarine. The current plan is to build up to 12 Yasen-class submarines to replace other aging submarine classes, as well as up to 14 Borei-class SSBNs over the next 10 years.

India is a promising newcomer


The projected cost of the submarines is $31,6 billion. In a major step to bolster maritime security, the Cabinet Committee on Security approved the construction of two 2024-Alpha submarines in late 75. Over the next decade, India will spend about $31,6 billion on the procurement and construction of submarines.


Of this amount, 30,5% will be spent on the 75-Alpha submarine. The Indian Navy expects to add a total of six submarines to its submarine arsenal over the specified period, at a total cost of $17 billion. They can be seen as an auxiliary force for the active Indian SSBNs of the Arihant class. As in the case of Australia, the motivation for such investments in the construction of submarines and SSBNs is the Chinese threat, which the Indian Navy command does not hide.

PS The man-made underwater world of the Atlantic is almost empty today. From the listed figures and events we see that the Cold War is still there, only it is fundamentally changing its specifics and diversifying for the prospect of a third world war. At sea, in this case, the main arena is the entire southern part and "horse latitudes" of the Pacific Ocean and the eastern part of the Indian Ocean.

At the same time, the main land theaters of military operations are in Western Asia and Ukraine. Moreover, due to technical progress, an increasing emphasis is shifting to underwater combat operations. In this case, we see a fairly new phenomenon that can be characterized as "Sinophobia", gradually displacing more traditional Russophobia, Slavophobia, Islamophobia, and Judeophobia.

The results of further escalation of these phenomena may be unpredictable. After all, there are 1,5 billion people living there... Measure your strength...
26 comments
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  1. The comment was deleted.
    1. 0
      31 January 2025 16: 50
      Quote: Bearded
      One can only guess about Russian submarines, as well as the entire Navy. Everything is covered in the fog of war.

      A special mystery is the presence of special warheads on submarines during long voyages... And then there was information that nuclear warheads are separate, missiles are separate... Just like in the classics:
      If we're going to fight, then fight. Wait a minute, I'll put on my battle armor now.
  2. 0
    31 January 2025 06: 41
    The article is not about the "cold war", but about the arms race. They want to fill the world with guns again instead of butter.
    1. -6
      31 January 2025 06: 59
      We will probably have to hire the Chinese Navy to protect our Pacific coast. What kind of naval war is this with the junk we have? The situation can be saved to some extent by missile units capable of firing at a strategic range at a moving target. Missile bases on Sakhalin Island, military airfields there too. And for this we need a bridge or tunnel to the island. For this, it might also be worth turning to China, they build such facilities very quickly.
      1. +6
        31 January 2025 12: 33
        Sakhalin needs a powerful wide dam with a 4-lane overpass for cars and two railway tracks. And on it, in the area of ​​the shipping fairway, either a drawbridge (like those in St. Petersburg) or a lifting bridge (like on the Svir). The dam needs fixed positions for the deployment of air defense systems during a period of threat.
        1. -1
          31 January 2025 12: 41
          To begin with, at least highways or gravel roads need to be laid on both sides. And a ferry needs to be launched in the summer navigation season. The distance between the shores is 6 km there. And this will show the demand for connecting the island to the mainland. soldier
        2. 0
          1 February 2025 17: 22
          The dam, I suppose, reaches Kamchatka?
          1. +1
            2 February 2025 08: 38
            Read the encyclopedia and learn geopolitics! Exactly the opposite - the dam from Sakhalin to Hokkaido will be built by captured Americans and Japanese. There I will have a dacha on the western shore and a plot of 9 acres...
    2. 0
      31 January 2025 09: 14
      War is the essence of human nature.
      1. +5
        31 January 2025 09: 22
        Wars are not the essence of man, but the essence of society, consisting of antagonistic classes. War is a way for the exploiting class to increase and protect its wealth. And anticipating possible "arguments": the clashes of Stone Age tribes are not war, but precisely clashes for food and survival. As soon as groups, clans, classes, etc. appear in society, which, being a minority, acquire power through the appropriation of someone else's labor, then war comes.
        1. 0
          31 January 2025 21: 36
          Quote: Yuras_Belarus
          Wars are not the essence of man, but the essence of society, consisting of antagonistic classes.

          Well, yes... It is impossible to live peacefully with your neighbors here. And they are not capitalists... And there are no antagonistic classes. But they just get into fights. Unfortunately, human nature is like that... Some people need to fight, to wage war all the time. Because of women, children, a sidelong glance, an uncalled for word. And if there is also alcohol, drugs, then that's it... expect bloodshed. And envy? Greed? Meanness? All these qualities lead to quarrels, fights, wars.
        2. +1
          1 February 2025 07: 38
          In a tribal system there are no societies or classes. But there is war. Moreover, only our own are considered people. And others are wild animals and they must be killed and eaten. Why waste meat. And a male is first of all a warrior and only then a hunter.
        3. 0
          1 February 2025 19: 20
          Quote: Yuras_Belarus
          Wars are not the essence of man, but the essence of society, consisting of antagonistic classes. War is a way for the exploiting class to increase and protect its wealth. And anticipating possible "arguments": the clashes of Stone Age tribes are not war, but precisely clashes for food and survival. As soon as groups, clans, classes, etc. appear in society, which, being a minority, acquire power through the appropriation of someone else's labor, then war comes.

          War is the same as a fight!
          It's just a different level.
          Why do children fight already in kindergarten?
          Even though they don't even understand a single word you write.
          Once you realize this, you will stop writing about war as the actions of exploiters.
  3. +1
    31 January 2025 07: 19
    In any case, the area of ​​water space is larger than land, so it is not difficult to predict where the main focus of the future confrontation is leaning. And especially since the population of the earth is growing monstrously and land will soon be insufficient.
    1. +4
      31 January 2025 09: 08
      The US is building Virginia-class nuclear submarines, they are planning 65 units, plus 3 Seawolfs, plus 13 units for Great Britain and France, a total of 81 units, and all of them are multi-purpose and are being built at an accelerated pace, while we are lagging behind at an accelerated pace, and our submarines are significantly larger in size, they are objectively more labor-intensive to build, even for this reason alone it is impossible to maintain quantitative parity. The conclusion involuntarily suggests itself, maybe we don’t need to build huge multi-purpose-universal nuclear submarines, with a displacement of 11 thousand, maybe single-purpose non-universal ones are better, but smaller in size and more in number, and it’s even better to build underwater drones with a nuclear power plant, if there is our own satellite starlink, then the problem of communication with drones is solvable.
      1. +2
        31 January 2025 09: 32
        Quote: agond
        The conclusion inevitably suggests itself
        There is no need to try to build as many submarines and surface ships as the Yankees, but it is necessary to have a full-fledged fleet capable of solving all tasks at sea. In addition, the US has abandoned the topic of diesel-electric submarines, we have them, so we could build a lot of them, with the ability to carry long-range cruise missiles with a special unit.
        Underwater drones, and even with a nuclear power plant..., here the topic of "Poseidon" involuntarily reminds of itself. As for large boats, probably, here the ideas of the project 941, as boats under the Arctic ice cap, would be reasonable. Plus, it would be desirable to provide our northern coast, approaches to it, with means of control, like SOSUS, if, of course, we can handle it.
        1. +1
          31 January 2025 10: 02
          Project 636,6 can carry Kalibr missiles. And they can also have a special warhead. Like their Tomahawks.
      2. 0
        31 January 2025 10: 01
        Therefore, nuclear submarines are backed up by diesel engines, which will provide good coverage for the near coastal zone.
  4. +4
    31 January 2025 09: 20
    What kind of article, what kind of comments... request
  5. -3
    31 January 2025 11: 29
    The forecast for Australia is from the category of "it's all up in the air". The fact that they will spend dollars is a fact, but what these MAPLs will get is a big question.
    A very interesting approach - to measure everything in $))) Is the author aware that purchasing power is different in different countries? If for the US $10 billion is pennies, then for India it is a very serious sum. Considering that China has completed the construction of a covered elynn in Bohai, its capabilities now, according to American estimates, are 3,5 - 4 SSNs and 1,5-2 SSBNs every two years. The author somehow does not take such capabilities into account in the Asia-Pacific region. And the Chinese diesel-electric submarines have not gone anywhere, and the East China and South China Seas are just optimal for their service, based on their performance characteristics.
    1. 0
      1 February 2025 04: 57
      Quote: TermNachTER
      The Chinese seas are just optimal for their service, based on their performance characteristics

      The Chinese are lagging behind not only in aviation for decades, but also in submarines. The Chinese have not yet mastered the 3rd generation, at the moment the Russian Federation has been helping them with this lately. The US has mastered the 4th generation submarines.
      1. -3
        1 February 2025 09: 18
        Yeah, they're so far behind that the 6th generation aircraft is already flying))) and the rest are still just drawing.
  6. -2
    31 January 2025 16: 44
    Until we free the Black Sea from the Ukrainian presence and begin to use the advantage of the warm sea (almost non-freezing), there is no significant success to expect.
    Sevmash is good...Baltic Shipyard is wonderful...And???
    And, most importantly, where can we find shipbuilding specialists?
  7. 0
    31 January 2025 21: 52
    I wonder what kind of project the Indians have??? The submarine pr 75 Alfa...Alfa, you mean the first one?? I remember the Indians leased our submarine (pr 678, namely K-43, the Indians have Chakra S-71...) It served in the Indian Navy for 3 years and (apparently) the Indians wore it out so much that after the lease expired (and it was 1991) it was written off a year later... True, it was 1991 (damn it) and the boat was manufactured in 1967, but... I remember stories about the use of our Su in the Indian Air Force and... a coincidence (I don't think so), but... I read that the Indians started their own (S-670) on our pr 2... but I haven't heard anything about a submarine in the Kshatriya fleet... and you??? and then such a loud statement (yeah 75 Alpha...it seems that the late T. Clancy called our pr 705 Lyra Alpha in his immortal "Hunt for Reed October")..who knows, write back...I have only negative thoughts about "Disco Dancers" (yeah, the story with the Su-57 comes to mind)..
  8. 0
    1 February 2025 00: 51
    I would not rush to say that "Sinophobia" is replacing Russophobia. Because only the USA and, due to some territorial disputes, India suffer from Sinophobia. Well, maybe Vietnam and the Philippines, a little bit. I will not take Taiwan into account, because the same Chinese live there, and to say that they suffer from Sinophobia is somehow ridiculous. And even then, it is impossible to call the attitude of all Southeast Asian countries without exception Sinophobia. At least, now. The usual territorial squabbles. But with Russophobia it is more complicated. Here is practically all of Europe, not counting a couple of countries, the USA, Britain, Australia, Japan, South Korea. Somehow it is incomparable with Sinophobia, isn't it? But I don't like the word "Russophobia". Because "phobia" is fear. And it is not that they are afraid of Russians, but rather that they are somehow hated. Agree, fear and hatred are different things. What causes hatred? Different reasons. In the first place, of course, envy. Envy of the size of the country, first of all, of the achievements of the people, of independence from the "exceptional nation". The Poles, for example, have always considered themselves superior to the Russians as a nation (and they are not the only ones, by the way), dreamed of a state "from mozha to mozha" (from sea to sea). But nothing came of it. But the Russians, whom they despised, created the largest state in the world. How can one not envy and hate? And the Russians even included Poland in their state. And the Germans defeated the Poles very quickly, but could not defeat the Russians. The Russians themselves defeated the Germans, moreover, they liberated Poland from the Germans. They rebuilt Warsaw, which had been destroyed, for them. And the Poles have always considered themselves the bravest, the best warriors, and boasted of it.
    Is it possible to tolerate this? And other European peoples are not much different from those Poles. Perhaps they are also very greedy for our lands, our resources. But they can’t take them. This infuriates them. And with the USA, the story is the same and something else. The same, because it is the same country, where the same people live as in Europe. And besides, Russia, like the USSR, was and is a competitor and the country that does not allow the USA to establish undivided domination on the planet. How can you not hate the Russians? China, on the other hand, has risen quickly, and is also a competitor. And now we should bring China down, hence the Sinophobia. But this is also not fear. This is anger at the competitor. What kind of phobia is this? Take some claustrophobia, for example. Here it is precisely the fear of closed spaces. A person feels sick, he panics, he can fall into a coma. When meeting Russians, no one panics, much less falls into a coma. Because this is not a phobia. This is malice.
    But this topic is too vast to fit into a comment. Let's stop at what has been said.
  9. P
    0
    1 February 2025 04: 06
    all these budget calculations contain only one really significant component - deadlines. No resources, money, plans will help if (when!) one of the powers simply gets ahead of the enemy by starting a war first
  10. 0
    5 February 2025 13: 49
    I'm not a sailor, but I want to speak out.
    Comparing fleets... is not very smart, since each fleet has a lot of nuances and each has its own.
    I am sure that our fleet really needs diesels. The Black, Mediterranean, Baltic, Okhotsk, Barents, and Japanese seas. Ideally, we need about 60 diesel boats. I am also sure that we have very few Onyx coastal complexes. But there should be a lot. Because it is effective. Regarding nuclear submarines, I think that the Russian Navy needs to have 18 Boreys, 18 Yachens, and the maximum possible reasonable number of PLATs. In order to chase away the enemies.