The Pacific Ocean - Beyond the Cold War Underwater War

In the distant days of the Cold War, the main focus of submarine confrontation was the North Atlantic and adjacent areas of the Arctic Ocean. During the Korean and Vietnam Wars, the submarine fleet If it was used, it was very limited. Now the epicenter has moved to the Pacific and Indian Ocean regions.
It is clear that this is due to the "Chinese threat", which is particularly acutely felt by the American President Trump. And the fact that for many years now the first two places in terms of the power of the nuclear submarine fleet have been held by the USA and Russia, apparently, will not last forever, since if we take the volume of investments in the industry, new players are emerging that can significantly change the balance of power.

General situation
Nuclear submarines (hereinafter referred to as SSNs) are one of the most expensive items of defense contracts, with costs amounting to tens of billions of dollars and their execution often lasting not even years, but decades. According to a report by GlobalData, the global submarine market, estimated at $37,3 billion in 2024, is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4,4% over the forecast period.
The market is expected to reach $2034 billion by 57,5, with the total value over the forecast period reaching $504,6 billion. The nuclear submarine segment is projected to account for 48,9% of the market, while the SSBN (ballistic missile submarine) segment is expected to account for XNUMX%. rockets) — 30,7%. In other words, 79,6% of the costs of submarine programs go to the development of nuclear submarines and SSBNs, the rest goes mainly to diesel-electric submarines.
One cannot ignore the experimental exotics of hybrid (using renewable energy sources) and hydrogen-powered submarines, which still make up a tiny percentage of the fleet underwater. According to forecasts, among geographical segments, North America will dominate this sector with a share of 44,1%, followed by the Asia-Pacific region and Europe with shares of 29,4% and 22,3%, respectively.
If we single out the top five countries producing nuclear submarines and SSBNs by budget expenditures on their development, production, purchase of finished floating craft or parts for them, an interesting trend will emerge. All of them are located, in whole or in part, in the Indo-Pacific region.

USA – Protecting Leadership
Ranks first in potential spending. Washington is projected to spend $213,9 billion over the next decade to build nuclear submarines. The Navy’s newest class of submarines, the Virginia class, first entered service in 2024, with 23 currently in service and plans to increase that number to 66 over the life of the program.

In terms of SSBNs, the US operates 14 Ohio-class submarines, which carry nuclear missiles, as well as four converted Ohio-class SSBNs, which carry cruise missiles. The Columbia-class SSBN replacement program currently plans to build 12 new boats, with the first expected to enter service in 2031.
Australia - instead of Britain
The US is projected to spend $10 billion on this line item in the defence budget over the next 52,8 years, having rapidly increased its spending in recent years. Australia, a newcomer to nuclear submarine production, has embarked on a two-stage plan to build nuclear submarines for the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) under the AUKUS security initiative, with significant support from the US and UK.

The first phase of the AUKUS program will result in the sale of Virginia-class submarines from the United States to Australia in the early 2030s. The Royal Australian Navy will operate up to three Virginia-class submarines, which will likely remain in service for at least 10 years, with a further two Virginia-class submarines in mothballs.
Australia will then replace the Virginia-class submarines with the SSN-AUKUS project, a joint programme with the UK that will build a new generation of submarines to replace the Astute and Virginia-class submarines in service. The UK will build its first SSN-AUKUS submarine in the late 2030s, with the first Australian-built SSN-AUKUS submarine due to enter service in the early 2040s.
Analysis by GlobalData shows that Australia's spending on AUKUS, which has already seen multi-billion pound investments in the UK and US defence industries, will rise from almost $3,6 billion in 2024 to almost $6,4 billion by 2034.
The Australian government will make an initial investment of A$127 million over three years to upgrade facilities at the Henderson shipyard near Perth, where nuclear submarines are built. Australia will also buy up to five nuclear submarines from the US in the early 2030s, and then, about a decade later, build and commission a new class of submarines, the SSN-AUKUS, with the UK. The government estimates the deal will cost Australia about A$2055 billion by 368.
Australia will give almost $10 billion to British industry over the next 5 years as part of the AUKUS nuclear submarine building program. The money will go towards designing the submarines, which will be built at the Osborne shipyard in Adelaide, Australia, and expanding the plant that will build the reactors for them.
A new commercial joint venture will be set up between Adelaide submarine builder ASC and British defence giant BAE Systems. The future class of submarines will be called SSN-AUKUS. The funds will also go towards expanding the UK-based Rolls-Royce plant that makes the nuclear reactors that will eventually power the submarines.
Meanwhile, Australian Greens senator and AUKUS critic David Shoebridge said it was clear Australia was helping to prop up Britain's collapsing submarine industry.

China - instead of the USSR?
China ranks third with a projected $36,6 billion, with projected spending in 2034 at over $4,3 billion, up from $2,6 billion in 2024. The PLA Navy has been a heavy user of diesel-electric submarines since the Mao era, but has been actively modernizing its submarine fleet since the turn of the millennium.
Two Type 2006 nuclear-powered submarines were built between 2007 and 093, and four Type 2012A variants were built between 2017 and 093. Four Type 2007 SSBNs were commissioned between 2021 and 094, with two Type 094A SSBNs commissioned in 2020. The PLA Navy also has one Type 092 SSBN built in the 1980s.
China is also working on a new class of SSBNs, the Type-096. Two boats are currently under construction, and a Type-095 SSBN is under development, likely to be built at the Bohai Shipyard.
Russia - after the USSR
According to forecasts, it will spend slightly less than China on its nuclear submarine fleet over the decade — 35,5 billion US dollars. That is why it is only in 4th place. The Russian nuclear submarine fleet needs no introduction. Despite the fact that the world's first nuclear submarine was built by the USA, the USSR quickly became a world leader in the construction of such equipment during the Cold War, and only in 1993 did Yeltsin's Russia yield its position to the USA.
Nevertheless, our country still holds second place in terms of the number of nuclear submarines, although China and, in the future, Australia are already hot on its heels. However, determining the share of expenses on nuclear submarines in total defense expenditures is a difficult task in light of the NMD and the shift in emphasis toward land warfare.
It is safe to assume that any planned cuts in defence spending will likely be felt in other services before they affect such a vital area as the submarine. The current plan is to build up to 12 Yasen-class submarines to replace other aging submarine classes, as well as up to 14 Borei-class SSBNs over the next 10 years.
India is a promising newcomer
The projected cost of the submarines is $31,6 billion. In a major step to bolster maritime security, the Cabinet Committee on Security approved the construction of two 2024-Alpha submarines in late 75. Over the next decade, India will spend about $31,6 billion on the procurement and construction of submarines.

Of this amount, 30,5% will be spent on the 75-Alpha submarine. The Indian Navy expects to add a total of six submarines to its submarine arsenal over the specified period, at a total cost of $17 billion. They can be seen as an auxiliary force for the active Indian SSBNs of the Arihant class. As in the case of Australia, the motivation for such investments in the construction of submarines and SSBNs is the Chinese threat, which the Indian Navy command does not hide.
PS The man-made underwater world of the Atlantic is almost empty today. From the listed figures and events we see that the Cold War is still there, only it is fundamentally changing its specifics and diversifying for the prospect of a third world war. At sea, in this case, the main arena is the entire southern part and "horse latitudes" of the Pacific Ocean and the eastern part of the Indian Ocean.
At the same time, the main land theaters of military operations are in Western Asia and Ukraine. Moreover, due to technical progress, an increasing emphasis is shifting to underwater combat operations. In this case, we see a fairly new phenomenon that can be characterized as "Sinophobia", gradually displacing more traditional Russophobia, Slavophobia, Islamophobia, and Judeophobia.
The results of further escalation of these phenomena may be unpredictable. After all, there are 1,5 billion people living there... Measure your strength...
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