Wars and Armed Conflicts 2025: Iran, Israel, Türkiye, Armenia, Azerbaijan

Just recently we talked about The rule-based order is replaced by the force-based order, accordingly, there were many people willing to “wave their fists”.
The year 2025 has only just begun, but the contours of wars and armed conflicts that are still smoldering but could flare up in the near future are already visible. Potentially, some of these conflicts could well lead to the use of nuclear weapons by the parties (or one of the parties) weapons.
Today we will talk about the prospects of wars and armed conflicts involving countries such as Iran, Israel, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and of course, the United States will not be involved.
Türkiye-Israel
One of the regions where high-intensity fighting could potentially begin is Syria, or rather, the territory that remains of it.
Israel has already officially called for preparations for a possible war with Turkey, but this does not mean that Israel and Turkey will start fighting against each other in the near future - rather, this is a reserve for the future, since Israel clearly sees Recep Erdogan's imperial ambitions and reasonably predicts the almost guaranteed emergence of a conflict of interests with the future revived Ottoman Empire.

Gaza Strip after Israeli bombing
At the same time, there is a significantly higher probability that hostilities will begin this year, but with the use of proxy formations.
It is vital for Turkey to destroy the Kurdish enclave in Syria or at least cause it maximum damage. Accordingly, Turkey can use the radical groups that have captured Syria to attack the Kurdish enclave, ensuring their support.
Direct participation of the Turkish Armed Forces (AF) may be limited to the actions of special forces and strikes aviation and the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), which are controlled by no one knows who - by the way, the author spoke about the possibility and prospects of waging wars in this format back in September 2020 in the material Outsourcing War.
In turn, the Kurds are supported by the United States, which may not like such activity by Turkey, and they are unlikely to want to part with the oil fields, especially considering the intentions of the “bulldozer of American politics” to firmly defend the economic and political interests of the United States.
As a result, the US Armed Forces may begin to do the same thing that the Russian Armed Forces did earlier – operate from the air against pro-Turkish bandits attacking Kurdish territories. Sanctions may be imposed on Turkey itself, both economic and in terms of military-technical cooperation.
Israel is unlikely to introduce ground forces, but they could very well carry out air strikes against the pro-Turkish bandits together with the US Armed Forces.

IDF establishes forward operating base in Quneitra province in southwestern Syria
The main question that arises from the situation in Syria is how much more complicated will relations between the US and Turkey become, and will there be a direct clash between the Turkish and Israeli Armed Forces this year, at least in the form of incidents with aviation?
Of course, Erdogan may well "backtrack" by refusing to destroy the Kurdish enclave, stopping where he has been and halting expansion in this direction. In this case, the US will not interfere, and Israel will begin to develop the territories captured from Syria.
However, it is unlikely that the Kurds do not understand that this will only be a delay, so they will most likely develop military-technical cooperation with Israel to the maximum extent, strengthen their armed forces and strengthen the controlled enclave.
What then should the restless Sultan Erdogan do?
He'll find something to use it with, he has another point of application of force.
Azerbaijan-Armenia
After Azerbaijan managed to wrest Nagorno-Karabakh (the Republic of Artsakh) from Armenia without much effort, one might have assumed that if not peace, then at least calm would come to the region, however, as has always been the case, the weakness of the victim only inflames the aggressor.
The course chosen by Nikol Pashinyan to break relations with Russia and get closer to Western countries looks like an invitation to a table for Azerbaijan and Turkey, which oversees it, where Armenia’s sovereignty is the main dish, since they understand that there is no real power behind the loud declarations and promises of Armenia’s new Western allies.
France itself will not defend Armenia, and will not be able to do so, and limited supplies of super-expensive European weapons will not allow Armenia to do so independently. And no one in Armenia wants to fight - as soon as the turmoil begins, its "defenders" will scatter like cockroaches, emigrate to Russia, Israel, the USA and other countries, after which they will complain and assert their rights at their place of residence.
Understanding the balance of power perfectly well, at the very beginning of 2025, Azerbaijan put forward demands to Armenia to demilitarize it, refuse to purchase weapons from third countries, and return those weapons that had already been delivered.

Azerbaijan also directly states that it needs control over the Zangezur corridor, which will provide it with a direct transport route with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, and back in 2023, Heydar Aliyev directly stated that the Zangezur corridor would be implemented, whether Armenia wanted it or not.
The more Armenia objects, the higher the probability that Azerbaijan will resolve this issue by force. It can be assumed that Azerbaijan will gradually carry out provocative measures against Armenia, which are necessary to justify forceful intervention.
It is unlikely that Azerbaijan will drag it out, as they say, “you have to strike while the iron is hot,” it is unknown how the situation will change in the future, and while Russia and European countries are focused on Ukraine, Armenia is clearly not a priority for the US either, so another armed conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia could potentially begin this year.
Theoretically, Iran is the hope for saving Armenia, but it seems that it is now “knocked down” after the liquidation of President Ibrahim Raisi, the destruction of the leadership of the Hezbollah movement and the loss of Syria.
It should not be forgotten that Donald Trump has come to power in the United States, for whom Iran is like a red rag to a bull, and this could become the cause of another war.
Israel-Iran
Despite Israel's statements that Türkiye may become its future enemy, at the moment Iran remains Israel's main mortal enemy.
One of the biggest threats to Israel is the possibility of Iran developing nuclear weapons, and therefore there is always the possibility of Israel launching a massive missile and bomb attack on Iranian nuclear program facilities. Donald Trump's lifting of restrictions on arms supplies to Israel, as well as the increased involvement of the United States in the Middle East conflict since his arrival, may lead to Israel making a "now or never" decision.
Until now, Iran has limited itself to extremely limited responses to Israeli strikes, both against Iran itself and against its allies, so limited that "Iranian retaliation" can already be considered a household name.

However, Iran could perceive a massive strike on nuclear program facilities as an existential threat to its existence, which would result in an equally large-scale retaliatory strike with all types of Iran's long-range precision weapons, with the resumption of ground combat operations against Israel by Iranian proxy forces.
Let's be honest, as effective as the Israeli air force and special services are, the IDF ground forces in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon have "screwed up" just as much. Their only salvation was the equally stupid and primitive conduct of military operations by the Hamas and Hezbollah movements - if the IDF's adversary had been the Ukrainian Armed Forces, not to mention the Russian Armed Forces, their fate would have been sad.
Based on the above, there is a possibility that in response to a massive attack by Iran, if one occurs, Israel will use nuclear weapons, which it officially does not have.
Even if Iran does not yet have its own nuclear weapons, it can respond with so-called “dirty nuclear weapons,” that is, using kamikaze, cruise, and ballistic drones. missiles for the delivery of radioactive materials to Israel.
We talked about this earlier in the article Iran and Israel: one step away from mutual destructionGiven the size of Israel's territory, the consequences could be catastrophic for it. However, despite all the risks for both sides, the chances of an intensification of the conflict between Israel and Iran are now very high.
Conclusions
As we can see, the main “troublemaker” in the region is now Türkiye, which can become a direct participant or accomplice in almost all wars or armed conflicts in the region.
Regardless of how Turkey is listed in official documents – as a “partner” or a “friendly state”, it is necessary to understand that this country is one of Russia’s oldest and most bitter enemies. As Turkey becomes Islamized and radicalized, along with Erdogan’s growing imperial ambitions, its hostility and the harm it causes to our country will only increase.
It is Turkey, along with Great Britain, that is most likely responsible for the intensification of attempts to Islamize Russia; it is Turkey that is responsible for our disgrace and defeat in Syria – and this is precisely a defeat, even if for a lot of money the bandits allow us to keep our military bases.
We must accept defeat, leave Syria before the bandits change their mercy to anger and, with the support of Turkey, arrange a massacre of our fighters, and after leaving, blow up everything possible there, rebuild, taking into account the experience gained, and look for new points of application of force on the continent.
Armenia's prospects are bleak - under the current circumstances, sooner or later it will have to become Western Azerbaijan. It's time for us to introduce a visa regime with Armenia, because as soon as Azerbaijan starts the "dearmenization" operation there, tens of thousands of refugees will rush to Russia, and anyway, thanks to Nikol Pashinyan's policy, Armenia is rapidly moving into the camp of unfriendly countries.
As for Iran and Israel, we must act strictly within the framework of the agreement concluded between us. As a situational ally, I would like to wish Iran victory. If Iran had a common border with Israel, then so it would be, but knowing how Israel can work with aviation, I have little faith in Iran's victory.
In any case, it is high time for Russia to focus on its own problems - we have no friends, no permanent allies, only situational ones, we do not owe anyone anything - neither to save, nor to help, nor to support (including paying for other people's schools, theaters and mining farms), nor to accept refugees or migrants.
In 2025, Russia may face new challenges, but we will talk about them in the next article.
Information