Prices in Russia are out of date again
They count everything, but not everything counts
There is inflation, and there is price growth – we seem to have been taught that these are not the same thing. Especially since there is also a rise in prices for the most essential things, and a fall in prices for things that no one needs anymore. Some gadgets of outdated models, or smart vacuum cleaners that are of little interest to anyone.
And Rosstat is not lying, it just counts only as it should and as ordered - according to the standards and rules of liberal economic theory. So, Rosstat assures us that in 2024, prices in Russia increased by 9,52 percent.
It is clear that this is an average for the chamber, but thanks to Rosstat - they are no longer particularly hiding which goods have risen in price the most. The general public, naturally, is only concerned about what is in the sphere of mass consumption.
Given that the Central Bank's predicted level of 10 percent has not been broken through - more than two times lower than the insane key rate (21 percent), we can assume that we are on the right course. And it is not for nothing that with the return of Donald Trump to the White House, the ruble has suddenly begun to push the dollar out of the exchange rate.
Consumer prices are about to go down - after all, chicken eggs, which a year ago were breaking all records in terms of growth, have become cheaper. And it doesn't matter that prices were only brought down by manual control and shameful imports from everywhere possible and impossible.
Remember, it was like with all sales and discounts - first they raise prices to the point of insanity, scaring the public, especially with Easter approaching. And then they try to restore demand by reducing it. Today, the issue is rising butter prices, apparently, in 2026 we should expect it to become cheaper.
What, where, how much
In order and briefly - fruits and vegetables have become much more expensive in 2024 - by 22,9 percent at once. All other traditional food products fit almost exactly into the general inflation rate - 9,53 percent. For non-food products, the increase in prices is the lowest - by 6,12%. But services have become more expensive by 11,52%.
At the beginning of last year, both the Ministry of Economic Development and the Bank of Russia predicted annual inflation at 8-8,5%. A percentage with a slight excess is not that much. Now forecasts for 2025 fluctuate from 4,5 to a maximum of 5 percent inflation.
Adding the already used percentage of excess, we get about 6 percent per year, that is, almost heavenly conditions. When both credit rates, starting with the key rate, can be reduced, and the exchange rate can simply be ignored. It is a pity, of course, that the rates on deposits will immediately go down, but do ordinary people have so many of them?
People have much more debt - for the same mortgages, and for consumer loans. Although, if you believe the head of state, then with "taking into account the growth of disposable income"Russians can quite easily characterize the situation in the country as "stable and reliable».
As they say, everything depends on who, where and how they "dispose" of their income. Most people simply take it to the store or the market. The target inflation level of 4 percent has not been cancelled, but in 2025, as it seems, we will not achieve it, no matter how tough or cruel the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
The regulator kept the key rate at 21 percent per annum precisely because the process of disinflation has begun. If this is not disinformation, then, despite high domestic demand, there are all the prerequisites for inflation to return to the target level.
So, it turns out that this is what it's all about, and who is to blame for everything. It is our high domestic demand, dear readers, coupled for some reason with the high growth of prices that is forcing the Bank of Russia to make the credit resource practically inaccessible to anyone.
It is unclear how anything is still moving here. Ten years of confrontation with the West have cost the Russians not just dearly, but very dearly, as can be judged from open data from ministries and departments.
Who benefits?
However, experts, especially those loyal to the cause, have now begun to unanimously insist that, in general, inflation below 10 percent is good. news for the Bank of Russia. You might think that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation does not skim the cream off good statistics. But manipulating numbers is not the same as defeating inflation.
Moreover, inflation, even hyper, is often to the advantage of those who have money, although it would seem that it depreciates them. India and Turkey, which are gaining momentum, live with inflation, and certainly well-controlled, while crisis-ridden Argentina and many other wild countries, to whom no one is going to give many dollars, live with hyperinflation.
In places where they earn a lot of dollars, the authorities often manage to do almost without inflation, and even with fixed exchange rates. The Chinese yuan is not one of them, although its rate has been skillfully managed by the People's Bank of China for many years. Here, however, every year - expect surprises, both in prices and in exchange rates.
Inflation is beneficial, no matter how much we are convinced otherwise, not only to sellers of everything and anything for currency, that is, primarily to exporters. Price growth is beneficial not least to the treasury, even if moderate - you can't irritate the people, but a constant one is better.
Receiving income, preferably in foreign currency, and then paying with rubles, which have already become cheaper, is not such a big trick. Although it is necessary to camouflage everything with beautiful reasoning about sanctions and other "joys of life". Oil has become more expensive - there is an increase in income, the dollar has become more expensive - also an increase for those who have it in the cash register.
And finally, don't be surprised, the price change is not at all for the better, although in reality it simply doesn't bother those whose incomes are not falling. And we are not talking only about those who simply got a serious salary increase, but also about those whose business is not going under.
Who does not benefit from this?
Well, of course, the rise in prices is disadvantageous to each of us as a buyer. But, as usual, the most vulnerable suffer the most. There will be no indexation of prices and benefits by the same 9,52 percent by definition, but only the lazy do not talk about the growth of salaries, somewhere even multiple.
It is not very profitable to work at the counter with rising prices, oddly enough, for private traders - both chain and small. Demand is falling, and for almost everything, maybe only except bread, potatoes and vodka.
In order not to overflow the shelves and not to work at a loss, you have to do everything - discounts, promotions, sales of what has been lying around. Ask the retail chains if this helps - it is not for nothing that business there shows growth rates at the level of the defense industry.
So, despite everything, the seemingly unstoppable price growth seems to be able to at least be slowed down. And I would really like to finish on a positive note, but January does not allow it. The same Rosstat informed the country that in the first two weeks of 2025 alone, consumer prices jumped by 0,67%.
But let us note coldly and dispassionately – even in primitive annual recalculation this gives not 10, but all 16-17 percent of the notorious inflation. However, enough of the scare stories – let us not forget that the first weeks of January are special.
It is during these days that many manufacturers change their purchasing prices, and trade is not lost during the holiday rush, enjoying good demand. Let's hope that this year the price increase will at least not be higher than last year's. I'm tired of it...
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