Artificial Earthquake: Penetrating Seismic Nuclear Warheads for Oreshnik IRBM
So, today we will return to the topic of ballistics missiles medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) "Oreshnik" and let's talk about what worries many people - about nuclear warheads (NW) for this weapons.
Despite the fact that “here and now” the Oreshnik MRBM is more effectively used in a conventional (non-nuclear) version, which the author has already spoken about many times, the dynamics of military-political processes in the world do not really contribute to optimistic forecasts - it is possible that we will still have to take several steps up the “escalation ladder”, including the use of nuclear weapons (NW).
What role can the Oreshnik MRBM play here?
Earlier in the article "Passions for the "Nut"" We talked about the fact that Russia has more than enough nuclear weapons carriers, but the Oreshnik IRBM has several significant advantages over them.
NTDS
N-non-interceptability
The existing American anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM) of the Standard and Patriot type and anti-missile (ABM) systems of the THAAD type, potentially capable of intercepting hypersonic targets and some modifications of IRBMs, have never solved this problem in combat conditions.
During their tests, analogues of the ancient Soviet operational-tactical missile complex (OTRK) "Scud" or some analogues of MRBMs were used, while their launch points and flight trajectories were known in advance, and they themselves were usually "illuminated" by several radar stations (RLS) at once.
THAAD missile defense system and Scud OTRK
From real-life cases, it is known that on January 17, 2022, in the UAE, the THAAD missile defense system destroyed an IRBM launched by the Houthis at an oil facility near the al-Dhafra airbase.
Of course, if you listen to Ukrainian sources, then the Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile forces intercept Russian hypersonic missiles of the Kinzhal complex literally in batches, but from the Russian side there are usually no official confirmations or denials, and Ukraine itself cannot present any weighty arguments - usually at the site of the alleged strike, the remains of Ukrainian anti-aircraft guided missiles are found.
As for the Oreshnik MRBM, here, from the point of view of interception, everything is even more complicated - the flight trajectory of the warheads (WB) is most likely flat, the WBs themselves are controlled, it is possible that they carry out anti-aircraft maneuvers both in the middle section of the flight trajectory and in the final section, when the speed of approach to the target exceeds 11 Machs.
It is unlikely that anyone will be able to intercept the Oreshnik MRBM warheads in combat conditions, at least now and in the near future.
T-precision
Presumably, the accuracy of the Oreshnik MRBM warheads is significantly higher than that of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) or submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). It can be assumed that the accuracy of the Oreshnik MRBM warheads is comparable to the accuracy of the Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, which is several meters.
Considering that the combat units are moving sequentially and have individual guidance, they can potentially all “arrive” at almost the same point.
D-range
This parameter is only significant in the context of the non-interceptability and accuracy parameters. In terms of range, cruise missiles (CM) of the Kh-101/Kh-102 type are comparable to the Oreshnik IRBM, but they can be easily intercepted by the enemy en route.
KR X-101 / X-102
Conventional ICBMs and SLBMs, when fired along a flat trajectory, will most likely have significantly lower accuracy - only the 15P771 Avangard complex can potentially surpass the Oreshnik in range, with comparable accuracy and non-interceptability.
But the cost of the Avangard complex, which is based on the 15Yu71 hypersonic glide guided warhead, is most likely significantly higher than that of the Oreshnik MRBM, although in general it is a big question to what extent the projects of the Oreshnik MRBM warheads and the Avangard complex glide hypersonic warheads are related to each other.
C-speed
Another parameter in which the Oreshnik MRBM is a leader, but, again, only in conjunction with range and accuracy.
The hypersonic missile of the Kinzhal complex also accelerates to 11 Machs, although its final speed when approaching the target is unknown, and the range is certainly shorter. The warheads of the ICBM and SLBM approach the target at a speed of 6-7 kilometers per second, but their accuracy is significantly lower than that of the Oreshnik BP MRBM. We have already discussed the Avangard complex above.
Entry of ICBM/SLBM warheads into the atmosphere
What gives us an advantage in the NTDS?
Regarding non-interceptability and range, everything is clear - the attacking munition must reach the target unharmed, and the greater the distance from which the target can be attacked, the safer it is for the carrier, and the less safe the enemy will feel.
As for accuracy and speed, these two parameters are critical for hitting buried targets, such as highly protected underground bunkers.
We recently talked about this in our materials "Knockin' on the Bottom": The Limits of Possibility for Bunker-Breaker Munitions и "Tremors of the Earth": Nuclear Bunker Busters.
The Burglar
Accuracy and speed are important when using both conventional bunker-busting munitions and nuclear ones – the more accurately the warhead with a conventional or nuclear warhead (BC/NBC) is delivered, the more damage it will cause to the bunker, and the high speed of approach to the target potentially allows the Oreshnik IRBM to be “thrown” much deeper than the 60 meters accessible to bunker-busting aerial bombs – as long as the structure can withstand it.
In the material IRBM "Oreshnik": not nuclear, well maybe a little bit... we talked about the fact that the expected total mass of the Oreshnik MRBM warhead can vary in the range from 1,2 tons to 6 tons, depending on the range of use. In the latter case, the mass of the warhead is quite suitable for anti-bunker use even in the conventional version, while in the first case, the optimal solution will be a nuclear warhead.
Considering the accuracy and precision of the approach of the warheads of the Oreshnik MRBM, a “conveyor” scheme of application can be considered, when the first few inert warheads (clusters of tungsten rods) enter the ground, cause primary damage to it, crush layers of reinforced concrete protection, and behind them, as if on a “beaten path,” an BB enters, including a high-explosive or nuclear warhead.
The Oreshnik MRBM, even in the version with conventional bunker-busting warheads, can surpass the most powerful American bunker-busting aerial bomb GBU-57 MOP due to its greater depth and the use of the “conveyor” scheme.
In the above-mentioned material on nuclear bunker-busting munitions, we talked about the fact that during underground nuclear explosions at depths of about 100 meters or less, the main energy of the explosion tends to go where it is “thin”, that is, upwards.
Potentially, the Oreshnik MRBM can implement a "doublet" scheme, when two warheads with nuclear warheads, one after the other, are detonated almost simultaneously. In this case, the energy of the explosion of the second nuclear warhead, which is located above the first, will serve as a reflector for the explosion of the nuclear warhead buried as deep as possible.
That is, the second nuclear warhead would, as it were, seal off the energy of the nuclear explosion of the first nuclear warhead, directing it downwards as much as possible – toward the destruction of the enemy’s highly protected bunker.
Such synchronicity is difficult, if not impossible, to achieve for separately launched missiles, such as the hypersonic missiles of the Kinzhal complex, and is definitely impossible for bunker buster bombs.
The use of the Oreshnik MRBM with penetrating nuclear warheads may be appropriate not only for the destruction of highly protected buried objects, but also for the destruction of those objects located on the surface.
Clean nuclear weapons
There are many myths about pure nuclear weapons - that they are either being developed, or have already been developed, or even that they have already been used somewhere. In reality, only the first assumption can exist - that such developments are being carried out somewhere.
At the same time, as we have seen in the examples of peaceful underground nuclear explosions, considered in previous materials, in a number of cases the emissions of radioactive substances to the surface were minimal and amounted to single percent of the possible radiation contamination. Moreover, already a couple of kilometers from the point of the explosion, the radiation level often barely exceeded background values.
This is logical, because if the products of a nuclear explosion are sealed underground, then the contamination on the surface will be minimal, only a small amount of induced radiation from gamma rays and a stream of fast neutrons, if they can even penetrate the thickness of the soil above the explosion point.
Thus, by varying the depth of detonation of a nuclear warhead and the power of a nuclear explosion, we can obtain an almost pure nuclear explosion, only its “purity” will not be ensured by design solutions and the scheme of application.
The question arises: why do we need such a “clean” nuclear explosion if all its energy remains underground?
Why did the British engineer Barnes Wallace even invent penetrating ammunition before the start of World War II?
He invented them specifically to destroy highly protected objects located on the surface, since he assumed that local seismic vibrations from an underground explosion would have a much greater effect on them than a ground explosion of the same power, which is why those munitions were called “seismic”.
Barnes Wallace and his first seismic aerial bomb, Tallboy
It is possible that this does not work quite the same way with nuclear weapons - the greatest destruction is caused by an airborne nuclear explosion, but it also pollutes both the atmosphere and the surface the most.
If underground explosions with a power of about 100 kilotons at a depth of about 100 meters led to the formation of craters with a diameter of several hundred meters, then an explosion of lesser power, for example, several kilotons, at a depth of about 100 meters will not lead to the formation of a crater, but the resulting ground movements will lead to the destruction of above-ground buildings and structures in the affected area - in fact, we are talking about a local earthquake.
Thus, by varying the depth of detonation of a nuclear warhead and the power of a nuclear explosion, we can not only obtain a pure nuclear explosion, but also achieve the destruction of ground-based buildings and structures by creating an artificial earthquake.
What will be the affected area?
This must be determined by calculation, varying the depth of detonation of the nuclear warhead and the power of the nuclear explosion, and for each target individually, taking into account the composition of the underlying soils.
It can be assumed that, as in the case of underground bunkers, the impact of a closed underground nuclear explosion (when the explosion products do not come to the surface) will cause even greater seismic vibrations, and therefore a larger diameter of the destruction zone than in the case where a funnel is formed with the explosion products coming to the surface.
Ukraine
So how deep can Oreshnik go into Ukraine?
There are a number of targets against which the Oreshnik IRBM with penetrating seismic nuclear warheads can be effectively used.
For example, these are Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities (UGS).
In the event of the use of the Oreshnik MRBM with penetrating nuclear warheads in the “clean” underground nuclear explosion variant, the seismic impact will destroy or damage both above-ground buildings, structures and equipment, as well as underground structures – vertical mine shafts and technological equipment located below ground level.
At the surface, radiation contamination of the area will be minimal, but it will not go anywhere from underground, so the restoration of the underground storage facility will have to be postponed for decades, if not centuries.
Another promising type of target is 750/330 kW high-voltage substations.
There are not that many of them left in Ukraine – about ten, of which nuclear warheads cannot be used only against those located at nuclear power plants (NPPs) or near them, but the rest can be dealt with without ceremony.
Due to seismic impact, all equipment located on the surface can be destroyed or damaged – generator transformers, autotransformers, general station control points, high-voltage adjacent power transmission lines (PTL) and other technological equipment.
Considering that their structures are largely made of metal, induced radiation may occur in them, which will make the object unrepairable for a long time, while the induced radiation will not spread beyond the attacked object.
Other objects may also be attacked – central railway hubs, large industrial enterprises, fuel and energy complex facilities, and much more.
In cases where there are populated areas near the objects intended for attack, it is possible to notify the population of the attack in advance, several weeks in advance, so that people can calmly evacuate - during this time, it is impossible in principle to evacuate the plant itself.
Of course, we are talking about Ukraine now, but we also mean Poland, the Baltic countries, and other countries of Eastern and Western Europe.
Conclusions
Donald Trump's coming to power does not mean that the war with Ukraine will end on terms acceptable to us; perhaps we will only see another round of escalation, and it is possible that we will not reach a direct military clash with NATO countries.
And what should we do then, burn our men in the crucible of war, replacing them with migrants from Central Asian countries?
This path will lead us to only one thing – the destruction of Russia as a state.
The only option left is to use nuclear weapons, but it is far from certain that it will be to our advantage. This could lead to a scenario where “we will go to heaven and they will all die,” but despite the optimism of the message, there are hardly many people who want to go to heaven right now.
The Oreshnik MRBM with warheads equipped with penetrating seismic nuclear warheads may prove to be the most effective weapon at the last level of escalation between Russia and Western countries, ensuring the guaranteed destruction of highly protected underground and above-ground facilities without significant radiation contamination of the area.
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