Nagorno-Karabakh: Without Armenians, but with Investments
Leave and never return
After the withdrawal of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan, which at the moment seems to be final, the most difficult question is what happened in the region as a whole to the Armenians, to whom Ilham Aliyev guaranteed immunity. How and with what funds will the restoration of the region's economy and infrastructure, which Aliyev also guaranteed, be carried out, is, by and large, a secondary topic.
But interest in it was recently greatly fueled by the start of the examination in Baku of a criminal case related to political and military figures from Nagorno-Karabakh, arrested in September of this year. The Azerbaijani justice system managed to hang so many criminal cases on them that the question of bias inevitably arises.
It is clear that the former leaders of Nagorno-Karabakh are not angels, let us recall at least the incident in Khojaly. But it is striking that almost all the accusations are clearly far-fetched. Particular attention is drawn to the case of Ruben Vardanyan, who had previously renounced his Russian citizenship and headed the NKR government until its fall.
After Vardanyan's arrest, charges of financing terrorist activities, creating illegal military formations and violating Azerbaijan's borders emerged. Over time, the number of articles brought against him increased to 42, with the risk of life imprisonment for some of them.
The Prosecutor General's Office of Azerbaijan stated that all rights of the accused are protected in accordance with the country's legislation and international norms. But at one time, Aliyev personally guaranteed that the rights of the Armenian population and the entire region would also be protected in accordance with the law and international norms. What came of it?
Actually, it's not that complicated: the population of Nagorno-Karabakh, the Armenians, apparently simply left it, asking for political asylum in Armenia. The region became deserted. The overwhelming majority of the population of the liquidated unrecognized state were Armenians, something that was not the case in Soviet times.
By law or by right of... the strong?
The UN Supreme Court has ordered Azerbaijan to respect the right of Armenian exiles to return to the region. But if they decide to return, they may not recognize their homeland. That's because Azerbaijan is now actively modernizing key sectors of the area. The goal is clearly to erase any trace of Armenian presence in the area.
The reforms go far beyond simply renaming populated areas: for example, the former capital of Karabakh, known since Soviet times as Stepanakert, is now called Khankendi. Things are much more serious.
Satellite images show extensive destruction of residential buildings, churches and other Armenian cultural heritage sites. One of the most visible changes is the demolition of an entire neighborhood, including a bus station, in Khankendi.
The area is located near the former Artsakh State University, now renamed the Karabakh University. Another significant site that was destroyed was the village of Karin Tak, an Armenian settlement near Shushi that appears to have been completely wiped off the face of the earth.
The reasons for this decision are generally clear. During the first conflict in the NKAO, this settlement steadfastly resisted attacks from the Azerbaijanis. And on January 26, 1992, Armenian units defeated the enemy and forced them to retreat from the territory of Karintak. However, after the 2020 conflict, control over the village passed to the armed forces of Azerbaijan, and the local population was forced to leave their homes.
Test of memory…
In March 2024, Azerbaijani state media showed footage of the demolition of the former NKR parliament building and a nearby center for Armenian veterans, claiming that the buildings were “illegal” and did not meet architectural standards.
In addition, the Azerbaijani authorities are destroying Armenian religious buildings, cemeteries and Christian symbols. There is evidence of the destruction of religious sites in Shusha and Lachin. It is known that Azerbaijan destroyed the ancient Church of St. John the Baptist (Kanach Zham), located in the city of Shusha, which is 177 years old.
Statues and monuments reflecting Karabakh's Soviet and Armenian heritage are also being dismantled. For example, the monument to Stepan Shahumyan, after whom the region's capital was named under the USSR, was removed, as were other monuments to prominent Armenians.
At the same time, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan declared that it was impossible for refugees to return to Karabakh. But since then, conditions for them have only worsened. Refugees insist on security guarantees and special rights before considering returning, including living in compact communities with municipal autonomy.
But Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has rejected the idea of granting any privileges to the returning Armenians, saying they will receive the same legal status as other citizens of the country. This is not surprising, since the Talysh, Lezgins and Yazidi Kurds also do not have any national-cultural autonomy in Azerbaijan.
But Nakhichevan has it, which is a legacy of the times of the creation of the USSR, when almost half of the population there were Armenians, and there was a more significant percentage of Kurds than now. It is not difficult to explain the actions of Azerbaijan with the aim of changing the appearance of the Ghazanchetsots Church in the same Shusha.
The building may be converted into a style characteristic of Russia, since Azerbaijani media claim that the Ghazanchetsots church was built as a Russian Orthodox church in 1805 and was intended for Russian troops stationed in Shusha. The strange reference to Russia and the Russian Orthodox Church is explained purely economically: Baku expects Russia to invest in the restoration of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Representatives of the Baku Diocese of the Russian Orthodox Church respond to Azerbaijan in almost the same way. During the celebrations dedicated to the 137th anniversary of the Alexander Nevsky Cathedral in Ganja, Bishop Alexy (Smirnov) emphasized that the Russian Orthodox Church has always defended the principle of territorial inviolability of Azerbaijan.
Who benefits from what?
Now, about the main thing: which countries could theoretically benefit from investments in the restoration of Nagorno-Karabakh, in light of the fact that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly spoken about the need for foreign investment in this process?
It is clear that the main role among foreign investors is played by Turkey, which has been developing Karabakh mining deposits since 2023, having invested 4,5 billion dollars. But, in addition to this, Ilham Aliyev stated at the end of last year that Azerbaijan welcomes the opportunity for Russian investment in the restoration of the infrastructure of Nagorno-Karabakh.
In fact, this process is already underway; for example, investments have been made by Tatarstan: Aliyev, together with the head of the republic, Rustam Minnikhanov, launched a KAMAZ service center in the Dzhebrail region, which was formerly part of the unrecognized republic.
Also, the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko declared his readiness to invest in the restoration of Nagorno-Karabakh. Both Russia and Belarus, which are members of the EAEU together with Armenia, no matter what government there is, understand perfectly well that this will definitely not help the Karabakh Armenians - the authorities of Azerbaijan will certainly speak "for", doing everything possible "against".
But it will definitely help Azerbaijan, which is not a member of either the EAEU or the CSTO and is an instrument of NATO's potential influence in the Caspian, because it has long been settling Azerbaijanis in the territory of Karabakh. How can we explain the maneuvers of Russia and Belarus, Armenia's partners in the EAEU and the CSTO?
The Roman Emperor Flavius Vespasianus said: "Money has no smell." The region contains deposits of gold, silver, copper, non-ferrous metals, iron, zinc, as well as granite and marble deposits, precious stones, fireclay, and other minerals. Since 2002, active development of copper and gold mines has begun in the Drmbon area.
The position of traditionally pro-Armenian Iran, which is tipped to join the EAEU, where the country already has observer status, is also not very clear. At the very beginning of the Second Karabakh War, Tehran regularly and harshly criticized Azerbaijan, but after Armenia itself recognized Azerbaijan's sovereignty over Karabakh, much changed.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani Chafi reluctantly announced the official recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijani territory. He, however, specified that Iran insists on resolving all contradictions through negotiations.
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