The rule-based order is replaced by the force-based order

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The rule-based order is replaced by the force-based order

It is unlikely that anyone will deny that international law, to put it mildly, has lost its force – the mechanisms of the Yalta-Potsdam system have finally stopped working, and the United Nations (UN), which serves the interests of the United States, has essentially turned into a useless “talking shop” for officials who want to hang out in New York for free.

When did it start? After the collapse of the USSR, when Russians were massacred in the former Soviet republics, which is shamefully hushed up to this day, and when betrayal of national interests in the new Russia became almost the norm?



Or after the war in Yugoslavia, when a part of a sovereign country was forcibly and in violation of all international norms taken away? The Albanians slaughtered Serbian settlements, and then in all official sources, as well as in Western fiction, the Serbs were portrayed as villains.


On the left is the Croatian Ustasha's "Serbosek", designed for mass executions of Serbs in concentration camps; on the right is Radovan Karadzic demonstrating a miniature version of the modern "Serbosek", designed for torture and killing of civilians.

Or maybe later, when Georgia attacked Russian peacekeepers, and Russia was blamed for everything, having been forced to defend its soldiers and the civilian population of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. (which then sat on our necks and hasn’t come off since).

Or when the "orange" coup d'etat in Ukraine happened, after which shells rained down on the civilian population of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, when black was called white and white was called black? I wonder how many of those boys who jumped on the Maidan are still alive?

Then there was the strange coronavirus epidemic, which became the reason for significant restrictions on the rights and freedoms of citizens in many countries of the world. However, there is no doubt that it will not be the last one, both for objective reasons and because such epidemics can be very beneficial to certain groups of people.

However, the coronavirus epidemic did not prevent Azerbaijan from conducting a military operation against Nagorno-Karabakh, and Armenia, having refused to defend and not even recognizing the Republic of Artsakh, blamed Russia for its defeat.


Perhaps it was this man who became the reason for the beginning of the end of Armenia as an independent state. Now try to guess where they will all go when Azerbaijan starts to impose its own order there?

Then began and continues to this day the Russian special military operation (SMO) in Ukraine with its trampled red lines, strange self-restrictions and continuous process of escalation on the part of NATO countries.

2024 has seen Israel continue to pummel its neighbors, Iran and Israel exchange blows, including Israel's unique and daring operation to blow up pagers of Lebanese Hezbollah members - too bad we can't do that. Or do we want to?

Well, by the end of the year we had Turkish aggression against Syria, which resulted in a huge zone of instability with the prospect of further escalation. Israel grabbed part of Syrian territory, and Russian military bases found themselves in a state of limbo, in which they remain to this day.

And so, Donald Trump, who some in our country were waiting for almost like manna from heaven, ascends to the throne of the United States, the world’s leading democracy, and who, even before taking office, with the impudence and cynicism of a classic “Yankee,” kicked international law into a dusty corner, publicly declaring his desire to annex Greenland and the Panama Canal to the United States.


He also suggested that Canada become the 51st state of the United States and promised to deal with Mexican drug cartels. Well, let's see what comes of this?

USA-Denmark/Greenland


It would seem funny, how could there be a war between the US and Denmark - they are NATO allies? They need to fight Russia, and Denmark is under protection - they have a "security agreement" with Ukraine.

Of course, the US will not physically fight either Denmark or Greenland. Firstly, their military potential is monstrously incomparable, and secondly, their economic capabilities are even more incomparable, and the issue here is not in the gross domestic product (GDP), but in the degree of US control over the global economy - they can easily crush Denmark with sanctions alone, imposed both on the country as a whole and on its leaders separately.

Neither Denmark nor Greenland have any means of resisting - if the decision is made, the US will take Greenland. The issue is different - that the "first democracy in the world" is openly and publicly robbing its ally, and no one dares to squeak - this is the most direct and obvious demonstration that the order based on rules is being replaced by an order based on force.


The US wants to grab a rather large piece of land – well done, that’s how it should be done, and not to smear snot on the tablets of international law

For us, the situation is twofold: on the one hand, Greenland will open access to the North for the US, a new foothold will be formed for American expansion towards the North Pole and its riches. The US will probably start actively building icebreakers and adapting its naval forces to work in low-temperature conditions (they have problems with this now).

On the other hand, from a military point of view, Greenland is now “under the US”, and while they are “gobbling up the loot” – developing its resources, we have time to take counter-measures, and the US allies will think about their prospects under the shadow of American global power.

USA-Panama


The same can be said about the US claims to the Panama Canal, everything will depend on the political will of the US itself, no one will dare to interfere with them.

Recently, some pathetic, insignificant worm – the head of the UN International Maritime Organization, Arsenio Dominguez – declared that the Panama Canal will remain under Panamanian control, saying that there is no reason for serious discussions about its transfer under US jurisdiction. Well, let's see how he sings when personal sanctions are imposed specifically on him.

Yes, perhaps the Panama Canal may remain under the jurisdiction of Panama, but China will definitely be "asked" to leave, and this will be recorded legally. For us, the best option is precisely this option, when the Panama Canal will not become part of the United States, but China will be kicked out.

We are currently constrained in our actions against the Panama Canal because our conditional ally, China, has its own interests there, and any actions to damage the Panama Canal could complicate our relations with China.


The Panama Canal is so narrow and vulnerable

If the Panama Canal remains without China, then in the event of a serious complication of the international situation, at the level of the Cuban Missile Crisis, it (the Panama Canal) can be completely destroyed by several nuclear strikes, completely blocking this route for military and civilian ships of both the US and other countries of the world.

If the US “privatizes” the Panama Canal, and our relations with them continue to deteriorate more and more, then there are ways to exert indirect influence, for example, if some dry cargo ship with a cargo of reinforced concrete, under the flag of a country with an unpronounceable name, sinks across the canal, or even more than one dry cargo ship – they will spend months raising them from the bottom.

USA-Canada


We can also recall Trump's mockery about Canada becoming the 51st state of the USA, but this topic is unlikely to be developed yet - they can't swallow everything at once, they'll choke, and from a purely organizational and economic point of view, Canada's accession will be a nightmare. Rather, these are plans for the future, voiced so that Canadians, so to speak, go through the stages of "denial" and "anger".

On the other hand, Canada is such a disgusting, degrading country that it is not at all pitiful, we talked about it earlier in the article "Dystopia of the North American Continent, or Simply Canada - a Stronghold of Nazism and LGBT Terror".


The Land of the Rotten Maple Leaf

USA-Mexico


But the fact that the US can carry out some kind of special operation in Mexico is closer to reality, of course, "with permission" from the Mexican government. At present, drug cartels have a huge influence on the US, through them pass, or rather, leave the US, huge amounts of money.

It is unlikely that the powers that be and big business in the US like this, so the cartels may be dealt with harshly, here the question will most likely be how involved are the American elites and big business themselves in the activities of the cartels?

However, if the US were to start such an adventure, they would be in trouble; the special operation could well lead to a full-fledged civil war in Mexico, the echoes of which would certainly reach the US itself. This would require an iron will and the help of a country that knows how to fight terror, including on its own territory.

So let them dare - maybe we'll come to an agreement.

USA-Cuba


A small surprise at the end of Biden's administration - the US removed Cuba from the list of countries sponsoring terrorism, and also lifted some sanctions - this is like an "invitation to dance". Over decades of poverty, Cuba has learned a lesson - who to be friends with, who to fear, and who to screw over and send away with impunity.


The revolution is over, camaradas, so now – “it’s just business, nothing personal”...

If/when American capital starts pouring into Cuba, then in a few years no one there will even remember their Russian friends on the other side of the world; it looks like that page has almost been turned, too.

So, it’s time for those dreamers who dream of placing “Oreshnik” in Cuba to moderate their ardor and return to reality.

Conclusions


Yes, it looks like Trump might actually make America great and attractive again, at least for a while.


It is possible that the second half of the 20th century will enter history as the "golden age" of humanity

It doesn't really matter whether Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal become part of the United States. The new contours of the world order are becoming increasingly clear, and they clearly indicate that the time for empty UN chatter is passing, and only the right of brute force and impudence remains.

It's time for us to learn these lessons too.
15 comments
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  1. +9
    23 January 2025 06: 02
    so what to do now, when in the USA for the annexation of the territory of their state they would execute by death, not to mention the possibility of being in power, and in Russia those who were loyal Yeltsinites are in power, when their idol Yeltsin threw back the borders of the state 400 years. Here the originally Russian Kyiv and Odessa are under a big question - to return to Russia or not, because the "idol" Yeltsin considered his main goal to forever tear Ukraine and Belarus away from Russia. And there in the USA, no questions - if necessary, then we will take foreign Greenland and Canada for ourselves! By the way, the Yeltsinites look at the Russian Tsars who assembled the Empire from Crimea to Murmansk and from St. Petersburg to Kamchatka somehow without enthusiasm. Here, the Center named after Ivan the Terrible, or Peter the Great, or Catherine the Great, or Stalin was not opened, but the Yeltsin Center, please... So now we have to chew from nose to mouth, watching how the US expands its empire the way they need...
    1. +6
      23 January 2025 07: 28
      The rule-based order is replaced by the force-based order.

      Order is always based on force, no matter what it is called or how noble it may look. Of course, different types of force are used - from secret operations, naked violence of war and occupation, to economic coercion.
  2. +4
    23 January 2025 06: 05
    It is clear that the struggle for a new world order will only intensify. But for us, the most important thing is not the actions of the US or Europe, but a deep analysis of our situation and capabilities. To identify all our weak points, which Western countries are putting pressure on. And to get rid of them. After all, the ability to put pressure on us will depend on the strength of the resistance.
    1. +3
      23 January 2025 07: 41
      Identify all our weak points, which are being pressured by Western countries. And get rid of them. After all, the ability to put pressure on us will depend on the strength of the resistance.
      You think like a statesman, like a person who loves Russia. But the authorities now have different ones.
  3. +7
    23 January 2025 06: 20
    How did diplomacy and agreements come about?
    The story is not at all different from the division of power in the city by different gangs - when the forces are comparable, they come to agreements so as not to destroy each other. And when the balance is violated (or there is an opinion that it is violated), a redistribution of "agreements" occurs.
    The flourishing of the implementation and observance of agreements was achieved precisely with comparable power - both of countries and of gangs.
    And "strength" is not necessarily military.
    After the collapse of the Union and the emergence of a "great energy power", it would be strange to maintain the distorted world order. And the redistribution was inevitable.
    And there are different ways to fight - for example, economically. No wonder weapons like Oreshnikov will help with this.
    Sitting with a grenade in your hand and saying that if you blow everyone up, you won't win the battle. This is despair.
    You need to have the economy behind you first and foremost...
  4. +6
    23 January 2025 08: 20
    Nothing changes in this world, for understanding I will quote the words of I.V. Stalin
    To slow down means to fall behind. And those who fall behind are beaten. But we don’t want to be beaten. No, we don’t want to! The history of old Russia consisted, among other things, in the fact that it was continually beaten for its backwardness. The Mongol khans beat it. The Turkish beys beat it. The Swedish feudal lords beat it. The Polish-Lithuanian lords beat it. The Anglo-French capitalists beat it. The Japanese barons beat it. Everyone beat it – for backwardness. For military backwardness, for cultural backwardness, for state backwardness, for industrial backwardness, for agricultural backwardness. They beat it because it was profitable and went unpunished… Such is the law of exploiters – to beat the backward and the weak. The wolfish law of capitalism. You have fallen behind, you are weak – that means you are wrong, therefore, you can be beaten and enslaved. You are powerful - that means you are right, therefore we must be wary of you...
  5. +6
    23 January 2025 08: 32
    If/when American capital starts pouring into Cuba, then in a few years no one there will even remember their Russian friends on the other side of the world; it looks like that page has almost been turned, too.
    And Russian capital has no intention of pouring in there and never did. Russian capital doesn’t dare, it’s an American fiefdom. And then they’ll start writing that the Cubans sold out to the Americans.
  6. +5
    23 January 2025 08: 39
    Mr. Mitrofanov!
    I made an excerpt especially for you:
    Count: You would only have to engage in politics under my guidance.
    Figaro: Yes, I know her.
    Count: Just like the English language – the basis!
    Figaro: Yes, but there is nothing to boast about here. Pretend that you do not know what everyone knows, and that you know what no one knows; pretend to hear what no one understands and not listen to what everyone can hear; the main thing is to pretend that you can surpass yourself; often make a great secret out of something that is no secret at all; lock yourself in your study only to sharpen your pens, and seem profound when, as they say, the wind is blowing in your head; whether it is good or bad to play a character, to breed rumors and feed traitors, to melt wax seals, to intercept letters and try to justify the poverty of means with the importance of the goalThat's all politics for you, I can't move from this place.
    Count E, this is intrigue, not politics!
    Figaro. Politics, intrigue – call it what you will. In my opinion, they are somewhat akin to each other, and therefore let them be called as one likes. “And I prefer my beauty,” as they sing in the song about the good king.

    © "Crazy Day or The Marriage of Figaro"
  7. +3
    23 January 2025 09: 09
    Abkhazia and North Ossetia (which then sat on our necks and hasn’t gotten off them to this day)
    ..it's clear about the Abkhazians...but what did the residents of North Ossetia do to displease you!? request .. another Mitrofanovism... negative
  8. +4
    23 January 2025 10: 28
    If the Russian Federation had not flirted and had not supplied the enemy with its money and natural resources during the war, and had responded to provocations like the US, no one would have dared to demonstratively spit on warnings and trample on red lines - everyone respects strength, and the second largest army of the Russian Federation and, as the former Minister of Defense, Mr. Shoigu, who was transferred to another responsible job, said, is 80% equipped with the most modern weapons.
  9. 0
    23 January 2025 11: 37
    If I were in Trump's place, I would probably do the same with "Canada/Greenland" with the words "Well, we've played at independence and that's enough, come join us because it's not necessary."
  10. +3
    23 January 2025 14: 10
    Rules are power. When the USSR existed, we were a huge power and the whole world took us into account. Then the USA got rid of its competitor. Fukuyama declared the end of history. It's just that since 1991, we have not been a power and no one takes us into account globally. Because it was very convenient for our oligarchs and the fifth column. Now we are sort of "cheating" ourselves and cannot normally complete the SVO, not because we have no power, but because we cannot use it. Hazelnut and nuclear weapons are great. But as Brzezinski said, when your elite has $500 billion of our money (now it is several times more), then whose is it? That is why Moscow has almost no red lines (we hope that there are some)
  11. +1
    23 January 2025 18: 47
    The world today has changed beyond recognition... It has become tougher, more pragmatic and cynical... The "price" is power, unpredictability and inevitability. The world of Leopold the Cat, with its concepts of respect and honor, good neighborliness and predictability - "has sunk into oblivion"... The world order based on the results of World War II has ended, thanks to Russia, as sad as it is... Russia, "in pursuit" of the "universal values" of the West, for the right to enter the "friendly family" of capitalist states, destroyed and has destroyed that world order, with its concepts and values. Well, now we "have" what we have... The difficulty of the "moment" is that Russia, at the present moment, does not have anyone nearby who is ready to "cover its (Russia's) back", to stand "shoulder to shoulder", to extend a "helping hand" to it (Russia)... True, in the "big "sufficient" temporary fellow travelers and those wishing to "cling" to a strong enough "shoulder" with its capabilities in the sphere of raw materials and finance... Yes, once there were allies and devotees to the cause of socialism, and the communist idea.. But this is all in the past... Russia betrayed socialist principles, and with them the states that believed in these principles... The result is obvious, we are trying to dance "tango" on the international arena, in "proud solitude"... And "tango", against the background of the SVO, is quite difficult..... And about the USA, in short, they will do what they want, for one simple reason, that there is no one in the world who could, at the moment, "put them in their place"... Does Russia understand this??? Question..... That's how it is about us, and about Trump, with his geopolitical "wants".....
  12. +1
    24 January 2025 22: 07
    When the war began, they expected a meeting with the VVP at the beginning of March, there were rumors about nationalization and a change in economic course. It didn't happen..., but then there was Istanbul and the special military operation probably smoothly flowed into a strange VO.
  13. 0
    27 January 2025 14: 11
    To your attention the President of the USA, the Duke of Greenland, the Prince of Denmark, the King of Panama, the Prosecutor of Canada! A big, white, honest guy! Takes what he can and wants to take. Well done! The Bandarlogs are trembling.