Globe remote. "The task is to pit Russia against China. It's not easy, but let's get started"
So, the study is interesting by the very fact of a serious study of the possibility of a naval blockade of China by the United States. But this, after all, is predictable - China is growing and more than other countries threatens the sole American dominance in the world. The Americans need to do something about this. Actually, Sean Mirsky himself says that the naval blockade will destroy the Chinese economic potential, since China is critically dependent on maritime transport in foreign trade, as well as in the flow of raw materials. Much more interesting are some of the findings of the study, which relate to the measures necessary for a successful blockade of China. These measures have something to do with us.
Mirsky believes that the key factor in the success of such actions is the involvement of Russia in the blockade of China: “...in stories The blockade of China never succeeded without the tacit consent of the Russians." He admits that without the participation of Russia, the blockade of the PRC project turns out to be technically unfeasible for objective reasons.
At first, on other routes of movement of raw materials and goods - the United States may have an impact. This could be political pressure on transit countries or military strikes. Mirsky, for example, is considering attacking the transport infrastructure of countries that China is currently trying to use as an alternative to maritime transport. It is noted that the PRC understands its vulnerability to a naval blockade and is investing heavily in land access routes to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the straits.
"Military coercion" against Russia Mirsky considers impossible because of our defense potential. That is, there would be no potential - they would talk about the bombing not only of Myanmar, but also of us. So, you need to look for other methods.
Secondly, Russia will be able to compensate for the blockade in other directions for China: “... for example, China may try to shift all its international trade to the Russian direction, and even if Moscow is inclined to support the United States, they will not be able to do this when they collide with significant pressure from their business community.” Read: the benefits from such trade will outweigh any benefits from supporting the Americans. In addition, Russia and Kazakhstan will be able to cover a significant part of China's energy needs, which will also deprive the blockade of any meaning: "... Russia, on the one hand, will be China's hope to overcome the American blockade, on the other hand, it will also be for the United States the key to closing the transit route through Central Asia and preventing oil supplies to China.”
Based on this, the success of the blockade depends on the creation by the Americans of an anti-Chinese coalition by attracting neighboring countries to it, primarily Russia, India and Japan. And if Japan is planned without a twinge of conscience to be used as "cannon fodder", then, thank God, direct military participation is not required from Russia and India yet: "... Neither Russia nor India will have to participate in the American military operation, but they will have to tacitly support American action through national embargoes against China."
Now Mirsky rightly considers Russia's "tacit support" of such actions by the United States as an incredible and even fantastic scenario. However, if there is such a need, then it is necessary to work on its implementation - Americans are more inclined to work on changing reality in their own interests than to "wait for the mercy of nature." And Mirsky is quite frank about what can change the situation from fantastic to possible.
He believes that Russian fears of China can help: “The possibility of Russia agreeing to US actions against China may seem ephemeral. However, Russian military officials often express concern about the rise of China and its encroachment on the Far East. The pressure of Chinese growth could be a spur to future Russian-American reconciliation, as Russian leaders may decide that a rising China on the borders is a greater danger than a troubled but distant United States.
The question arises: will the Americans rely on the fact that “the curve will take it out by itself” and the Russian leaders, in an embrace with military officials, will unanimously change Russian policy in the direction the Americans need, or are they ready to influence the situation? The answer is easily found in the same text: "The United States should concentrate on winning the battle to perceive China (as an enemy - A. G.) by three neighboring countries - Russia, India and Japan." That is, work should be carried out with the public opinion of our countries. And something tells me that the “battle for perception” is already underway. There are too many "stretched on the globe" facts and suspiciously persistent publications.
... Well, the growing China is really closer to us than the distant Americans. Perhaps that is why we are strengthening military cooperation with China, and not with the United States. Well, really, should we be interested in American dominance and the dubious benefits of "friendship" with them? The consequences of American dominance have never benefited anyone but the Americans themselves. We should be interested in our own dominance and our own growth, and not the attempts of "distant and problematic" Americans to remain the dominant force where no one needs them.
PS Viktor Marakhovsky
I would like to add one remark to what my colleague said. Not only our mass consciousness is being processed within the framework of the "solution of the Chinese question": the Chinese itself is also. If anyone watched the second film about Kung Fu Panda, they will remember: there the plot is built around a negative character on the imperial throne of the Celestial Empire, who wants to interrupt the blessed isolation of the country and go to conquer foreign lands. The positive heroes are actually engaged in the fact that they are smashing the navy (!) Of their homeland. So as not to interrupt the silence, smoothness and Taoist grace.
Given the natural tendency of Chinese civilization to pupate in itself, Hollywood figures know what to put pressure on. By the way, American big-budget films of the turn of the 1980s and 90s about Russia put pressure on the completely organic Russian "if only there was no war." As a result, we got a lot of these wars and everywhere.
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