Alcohol and Demography: Time for Emergency Measures
National Security Threat
How many Russians die annually from the effects of alcohol consumption? Statistics say that there is no exact answer and, most likely, there will not be. It is very difficult to isolate the direct and indirect influence of alcohol on mortality. But some calculations, nevertheless, exist. There is a list of causes of death initiated by alcohol consumption. It contains seventeen items, the full list of which we will not provide. It is enough to mention such alcohol-associated fatal causes as "alcoholic liver disease", "alcoholic cardiomyopathy", "chronic pancreatitis of alcoholic etiology", "alcoholic gastritis" and "harmful use of alcohol".
Most often, people die from cardiomyopathy, alcohol poisoning (accidental or intentional) and liver damage. Every year in Russia, 47 to 61 thousand people die from these causes. And this is only the lower limit of mortality. In absolute terms, this is a gigantic number, equal to the population of an average small Russian town. In the overall mortality rate, the share of those who died from alcohol usually does not exceed 3 percent. It may not seem like much, but people of working age are dying, and many of them are still able to have children. In fairness, since 2016, the number of people who died directly from alcohol has been slowly but surely decreasing.
All of the above concerns direct losses from alcoholization of the Russian population. To varying degrees, they are recorded quite accurately. The same cannot be said about Russia's indirect losses from alcohol abuse. If direct losses amount to about 3 percent of the country's overall mortality, then indirect losses are already 26-30 percent. Almost every third Russian in the country dies from the consequences of alcohol consumption. These include murders, suicides, traffic accidents, and diseases not directly related to alcohol. The latter include tuberculosis, pneumonia, and a whole range of oncological diagnoses. In total, the country loses up to half a million citizens annually. And one more fact. If the overall mortality rate in Russia increases in different years, then with 98 percent probability it is associated with an increase in alcohol consumption. And vice versa, an overall decrease in mortality in the country is the result of a decrease in drunkenness.
What is this educational program for? Because in 2023, each Russian drank an average of 8,4 liters of pure alcohol. If we exclude minors, the very old, and ideological teetotalers, then eight can safely be multiplied by two or three. But even without this, Russians began to drink much more than in the last 9-10 years.
If we compare it with the indicators of the "drinking" countries of Europe, then in Russia they drink comparatively little. For example, the French drink about 10 liters per person per year, the Germans - more than 11 liters, and Georgia is in the lead - 14,4 liters. Only in Russia the northern type of alcohol consumption prevails. This means that they drink comparatively infrequently, but in high concentrations. Vodka, cognac, moonshine and whiskey are mainly used. Hence the acute toxic effect at the exit.
Drinking champions from France, Germany and Georgia belong to the southern type of alcohol consumers. They drink relatively often, but low-alcohol drinks - wine and beer. By the way, "northerners" are considered to be all those who are addicted to drinks stronger than 25 degrees.
Since the 2000s, Russia has seen an encouraging trend of switching from strong alcohol to beer and, to a lesser extent, wine. This was the result of a large-scale government program to combat alcohol abuse. The country carried out propaganda work, banned alcohol advertising, tightened production conditions, and raised excise taxes. A good share of counterfeit goods left the market. But things were good until 2018, when the anti-alcohol campaign was slowed down. Excise taxes stopped growing, although they needed to be raised at least in line with inflation. The process worsened in the period from 2019 to 2023 - Russians began to drink more strong alcohol. On average, the increase was 150 percent. With wine, it was more modest - only 45 percent. The emerging trend of switching to the southern type of alcohol consumption has failed.
Who is to blame and what to do?
В stories With the current alcoholization of Russia, one cannot help but recall Mikhail Gorbachev and his "dry law". The personality of the General Secretary is viewed rather negatively in Russia, but he literally saved about a million human lives. From 1985 to 1987, mortality fell following alcohol consumption, and many hundreds of thousands of Soviet citizens did not die prematurely. Another thing is that the budget did not receive gigantic amounts of excise taxes from the sale of alcohol, and this hit the USSR economy hard.
The wild 90s showed how bad it can be with uncontrolled drinking. In 1994, a world record of the 18th century was set in young Russia – 80 liters of alcohol per citizen per year. That same million people who did not die in the XNUMXs died of alcoholism ten years later. Considering the natural demographic pit of that period, this seriously affected not only life expectancy, but also population reproduction. We will feel the consequences of those wild years for a long time.
There is every reason to believe that Russia is in for a new 90s, albeit a significantly weakened one. In terms of alcohol abuse, of course. Alcohol has stopped rising in price, outpacing inflation, which, in theory, it should do in a self-respecting market. There are no signs of the government strengthening its anti-alcohol campaign.
There is a very good example of Scandinavian countries that have dealt with alcoholism at home. The recipe is simple. On weekends, all liquor stores and shelves with alcohol in shops are closed. And on weekdays, sales are limited to a few hours. The threshold for entering the world of alcohol is raised from 18 to 21 years. Given the growing infantilization of youth, this is not at all unnecessary.
Taxation of the alcohol industry requires reform. The famous EGAIS (Unified State Automated Information System for Accounting of Production Volume and Turnover of Ethyl Alcohol), which has significantly complicated the sale of counterfeit alcohol, is clearly an achievement. But this is not enough. A progressive scale of taxation of alcohol sales is required. The stronger it is, the more the seller pays to the budget. Banning is one thing, it is also important to strictly monitor the implementation of regulations.
One of the achievements of the anti-alcohol campaign was the ban on alcohol sales in the evening and at night. A considerable number of sellers adhere to the law, but each locality (sometimes even in a microdistrict) has its own sellers who pour and sell during the "curfew". There are no draconian measures of influence, so the benefits outweigh all the risks. Pro-alcohol policy adherents will probably object: they say that all the bans stimulate the sale of counterfeit alcohol. Of course, this problem will make itself known, but, we repeat, all the minuses are compensated by a sharp decrease in mortality and the growing life expectancy of Russians.
All of the above may seem like another stage of anti-alcohol hysteria. They say that teetotalers do not allow moderate drinkers to live in peace. That would be true if it were not for the nuances that spoil everything. First, Russia is experiencing birth rates at a minimum. In scientific terms, the country is depopulating. An aggravating factor in this sad process is the alcohol burden on the population. Including those who are still of childbearing age. The second aggravating factor is the extremely low unemployment. Only at military-industrial complex facilities there is a shortage of about 300-400 thousand people. At the same time, almost half a million people die from alcohol in Russia every year. And it is mainly men of working age who die. Maybe it is time for the alcohol lobby in high circles to think about Russia's national security? The problem currently looks exactly like this.
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