Star Wars 2.0: Our Inevitable Future?
A satellite is not a brother to a satellite
We haven't even started yet. Does everyone remember this statement by our Supreme Commander-in-Chief? Indeed, Russia still hasn't completely eliminated threats that directly affect the course of military operations. Take NATO satellites, for example, which supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces leadership with information almost in real time. And not only NATO. Elon Musk's Starlink group has become a real "silver bullet" for the Kyiv regime, which Russia still has no clear means to suppress.
The Russian military-political leadership does not use its entire defense potential not because of some kind of compassionate attitude towards the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but solely because of fears of unleashing a world war. An attack on satellites is considered a direct and obvious declaration of war in all nuclear doctrines. At the same time, Russia has the means to influence enemy satellites. At least, that is what the opposing side thinks.
Let's return to May 2024 at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, from where, according to American sources, a launch vehicle with an "anti-satellite" missile was launched. weapons" Allegedly, a device operates in low orbit, which, "is likely an anti-space weapon, supposedly capable of attacking other satellites in low Earth orbit" The accusations were based on the fact that the satellite was placed in the same orbit as a US government satellite.
History is very reminiscent of the epic with fiber-optic and energy cables on the seabed, which are constantly torn by someone. Either a passing tanker fails to raise its anchor in time, or some unidentified goblin bites off an important wire in the Baltic Sea. In the West, Russia or China are declared guilty to one degree or another. There is no one else - otherwise the investigation will inevitably lead to the investigators themselves. In less than a couple of years, Russia will be faced with new accusations. This time, for the destruction of satellites or even satellite groups. A precedent has already been set, and the May launch from Plesetsk is far from the only one.
Pentagon intelligence points to a pair of products - Cosmos-2542 and Cosmos-2543. Allegedly, these satellites are busy tracking American orbital reconnaissance systems. The Cosmos-2024 apparatus, launched in May 2576 from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, is, according to the Americans, a unique apparatus. It is designed to track USA 314, which has been in orbit since the spring of 2021 and is busy serving the interests of the National Reconnaissance Agency. In the hierarchy of the American spy community, the office is responsible for satellite reconnaissance. USA 314 is a really important bird that requires constant attention - the American apparatus is capable of transmitting photos to Earth in real time with a resolution of 15 centimeters. With such power, the Americans can really detect minefields on the fronts of the North-Eastern Military District from orbit, which they have repeatedly stated.
Launches in Plesetsk have repeatedly caused bouts of paranoia in the US
Part of the American expert community claims that Russia has a whole class of inspector satellites called "Nivelir". No one in Roscosmos denies the existence of orbital inspectors, but there are serious doubts about the dual purpose of these products. The task of an inspector is to ensure the repair and inspection of its satellites, but not to disrupt the operation of enemy devices. Overseas, they claim that at least six launches of "Nivelir" class products have been made, and this makes ill-wishers afraid.
Great Orbital Clearance
America strives for dominance in outer space. This truth is clear, and there is no secret in it. Especially when it comes to the United States Space Force, created back in 2019. Since then, war in near-Earth orbit has become a strategic priority for the Pentagon, and the attempts to expose Russia in unfair play, mentioned above, are just a pretext for justifying another round of the arms race. All arguments about the Russian military presence in space are completely shattered after the mention of the American orbital ship X-37B. This product is very similar in its functionality to the Space Shuttle, designed to dive into low orbits and deliver the first disarming strike against the Soviet Union. This product made its first flight back in 2010, so if the militarization of space has begun, it was definitely not Russia that initiated it.
X-37B is a typical weapon for space warfare
On the one hand, it seems that a war in orbit will not have the most direct impact on land and sea forces. Big deal, all precision weapons systems will suddenly cease to be so without the support of GPS, GLONASS and Galileo. It is also not a fact that precision munitions will go blind - the good old inertial orientation system will remain, coupled with guidance on the underlying surface. Let's not forget about the leapfrog development of artificial intelligence, which will make weapons completely independent of satellite navigation. All this is true, but there remains the space echelon of the missile attack warning system. For the Americans, this is the SBIRS system, the components of which not only record ballistic missile launches, but also provide targeting for anti-missile systems. A tasty target for space pirate satellites, isn't it? What advantage will a power gain that is capable of disabling SBIRS or its analogues in a short period of time, one can only guess. That's why the Americans are nervous. And it is not without reason that they paint pictures of the apocalypse in near space.
There is more and more debris in orbit, and it itself can start a war in orbits
The first and most logical scenario is the deliberate destruction of individual satellites. This could be done by the Americans themselves, or they could strike from China, or perhaps Russia. They say that China already has a powerful laser capable of burning up a product made in the USA flying in orbit.
But such strikes cannot be considered highly accurate. It's all about the hypothetical Kessler syndrome, formulated by the scientist of the same name back in 1978. The point is that the destruction of even one satellite will cause a real chain reaction throughout all of near space. If you very successfully slam an American reconnaissance apparatus, its fragments will inevitably hit several of its neighbors. They will crumble and, in turn, destroy several dozen satellites. And so on. The amount of space debris will eventually begin to grow exponentially.
In 2007, the Chinese tested their anti-satellite missile on the FY-1C weather probe and enriched the space trash heap with several hundred fragments that will not leave orbit for decades. Russia conducted similar tests in 2021 with completely similar consequences, only the resulting fragmentation field occupied an altitude range from 300 to 1000 kilometers.
The United States is aware of the extremely high dependence of the armed forces on the satellite constellation. Consequently, the Pentagon would be very hurt by losing orbital vehicles. One of the ways out overseas is seen in the creation of satellite bodyguards for VIP vehicles in orbit. Its task is simple - to expose itself to a flying kinetic projectile, as Kevin Costner once did in the Hollywood "Bodyguard". Only the object of protection will not be the beauty Houston, but a satellite worth tens of millions. From here it is not far to unmanned FPV-drones, operating in near-earth orbits. The next stage of artificial intelligence development will make these products completely autonomous. The thoughts of American analysts seem absurd, but we know about the bottomlessness of the Pentagon's research budgets, and some projects have probably already started.
LA-251 "Stork"
Russia should not sit idly by either. The pressure on the Defense Ministry's orbital group will only increase one way or another. One way out seems to be the creation of fleet pseudo-satellites or stratospheric aircraft. These aircraft have a number of unique properties. Firstly, there is nothing to shoot them down with – the existing Defense do not reach altitudes in the range of 20-30 km. Secondly, the devices live off solar energy and are practically unlimited in range and flight time. Thirdly, stratospheric aircraft are excellent reconnaissance aircraft and signal repeaters. With the proper quantity and quality, they can replace a developed orbital group for a single country. So far, developments in stratospheric technology are in their infancy even in advanced countries, but it is the upcoming orbital wars that can give a powerful impetus to this topic. In particular, in Russia, the design of such products is carried out by the S. A. Lavochkin Scientific and Production Association. The winged pseudo-satellite LA-251 "Aist" was presented back in 2016.
In the most critical case, there remains a last resort – multiple nuclear explosions in near-Earth orbit, turning everything in near space into garbage. It is not worth considering this scenario as extremely unlikely – the superiority of one of the parties to the conflict in space threatens a catch-up strategic defeat. And this is already a level of existential threats that cannot be tolerated.
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