Some thoughts on the first day of the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region
Almost all day yesterday I was following the Ukrainian Armed Forces offensive in Kursk Oblast. Understanding that in the first day or three the information space would be filled with fake news, I tried to post information from verified sources. Naturally, I also posted my opinion.
That it is quite possible that this, from my point of view, stupidest offensive is just a preparation for a real offensive. For thinking people I even put forward the idea that this offensive looks like a blow with a five-fingered fist, when it seems like the enemy is hitting, but it is not clear where.
In general, what happened today, January 5, looks wild. On both sides, the LBS. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are driving in columns along the asphalt highway, almost in a parade formation. Where did the equipment come from in the Kursk region? Ukrainians applied EW, which was a great hindrance to our operators. Where from? And so on. Point by point...
A lot of questions have arisen regarding the direction of the main attack. I continue to assert that it is most expedient to strike in the Bryansk region or at the junction of the Bryansk and Kursk regions. The few dialogues with readers simply force me to write an answer for those who did not have time to ask such questions…
So, the enemy is acting in approximately the same way as during the first offensive. A quick breakthrough of motorized units and the capture of populated areas. There is no goal of a complete cleansing. Forward as far as possible and capture as much as possible! That is, the initial task is to force our army to accept the battle and destroy the attackers with all types of weapons.
And now the arithmetic. Simple, for elementary school. How many hours of continuous combat can a crew conduct? tank, gun crew, plane or helicopter? How many hours will the ammunition, fuel and other consumables last? 4-5 hours without supply from the immediate rear and up to a day with supply. And then what?
We have already seen this today after lunch. The second wave of the offensive! A kind of catalyst to speed up the work of the rear guards. And our infantry is not made of iron. In order to lay down the enemy in batches, we also need forces. Maybe a hole will break through somewhere to infiltrate the rear of the Russian army. Again, we need ammunition.
That's why consumables need to be brought from afar. Or from rear warehouses and arsenals, or from other parts of the front. Theoretically, if the rear services started working immediately, without any delays, this is a completely solvable task and will not cause serious problems for the defense. And all this action, if there are no disruptions, will take about 20 hours, plus or minus an hour.
So we have the following picture. The group in Kursk region is successfully destroying the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The neighbors are quiet, that's why the "excess" ammunition was taken from them. They will deliver "tomorrow or the day after tomorrow." And it is quite possible that some units will be taken. And how is this not an ideal time for the main attack on the neighbors?
So far these are my assumptions. I think that by the time the material is published, the direction of the main attack will already be obvious. Then the plan of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will become clear. Morning, that same "wolf shift" at 4-5 o'clock in the morning, is ideal for an offensive.
Russian: Maybe or dizziness from success
Today I listened to a story by a Yakut hero whose knife fight with a Ukrainian became an Internet bestseller. A good story by a simple soldier about life at war, about soldiers' luck, about soldiers' tears, about the daily feat called soldier's work...
And do you know what struck my ear? "We were given the task of raising a flag..." Raising it in a populated area that had not yet been taken! And the soldier carried out this task, even while surrounded by enemies... Thousands of such soldiers do something similar every day.
They want to win and do not consider their work as a feat... They work on any part of the front, including now in the Kursk region. But commanders must think before giving orders.
Kursk region... Christmas offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces... Zelensky needs at least some kind of victory like air... So much has been said and written about this. There is probably no person in Russia who has not thought about this thought after reading some material.
I just remember the messages from some telegram channels. The concentration of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in such and such a village, equipment there, Ukronazis in such and such a settlement (yes, they have learned to identify experienced fighters, mercenaries and recruits even by their appearance). Even governors had such “secret” information and posted it in the public domain periodically. The agents are working.
If you follow some channels closely, you can get a real picture of everything that is happening inside the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Even the brigade numbers were posted online. Who is assigned for what and in what echelon of the offensive they will go. Take the information, set a task for verification and take measures...
A long time ago I wrote that there are laws that apply to all wars. Military classics, if you like. Like the laws of preparing an offensive or defensive action. There is an algorithm, and innovations are just changes related to the scientific and technological revolution. The emergence of something new only changes the tactics of battle. They do not concern the law as a whole.
Let me return to today's events. Let me remind you. history. Defense of Moscow in 1941. Where did the most significant battles of this battle take place? On the roads leading to Moscow. The Germans advanced along the roads due to the same circumstances that dictate the battle tactics of the Ukrainians. Equipment does not go off-road!
Why, like in 41, do we again see columns of Ukrainian fascists on the roads of the Kursk region? Where are the heads of the engineering service, where are the heads artillery, where are the intelligence chiefs, finally? "The enemy managed to remove the minefields at night..." What is this? Probably the command "got dizzy" from the praise in the press.
I have read one phrase many times today, but I have not seen any confirmation of it in any video. It is about the weather. Allegedly, the Ukrainian Armed Forces offensive began because the ground froze and it became possible to use wheeled vehicles. I watch numerous videos of the destruction of Ukrainian tanks and armored vehicles. Well, they don’t drive through the fields. They all burn peacefully on the roads and at intersections…
What's the problem? Okay, 22-23. There really were problems with supplies, equipment, and weapons. But everything got better. Today, a shortage of something is an emergency. Today, not only the state, but also volunteers are bringing everything necessary for the war. Is it a problem today to mine a road even after the enemy has begun an active offensive? Is it difficult to mine remotely? Are there no mines?
Well, and the last thing. Again, the article format dictates its own conditions. Many of the readers, not really familiar with military affairs, have a poor idea of the front. That same line of combat contact (LCC). This is not a line of trenches, when soldiers from both sides curse each other without raising their voices. This is much more complicated.
Both sides occupy convenient positions that allow them to conduct combat operations most effectively. Remember the Donetsk villages that were in the gray zone for years? The gray zone is the area between the opponents' LBS. Simply put, our LBS can be located ten kilometers from the Ukrainian one. In general, according to documents, the gray zone can be up to 12 kilometers!
What I'm getting at is this. "The enemy has invaded our territory to a distance of up to 3 km," according to data at the time of writing. And what was the gray zone? Somewhere it really was 3-4 kilometers, and somewhere it was ten or more...
Instead of conclusions
Today, there is no person who would be indifferent to what is happening at the front. Probably, there is no person who would not have one of their relatives, close friends, defending our Motherland today. War has become the lot of the entire nation.
We have learned to fight. We have given the army everything it needs to win. And if necessary, we will give more. We gave it to be sure that the soldiers and commanders will protect us. They will protect the country and the future of our children and grandchildren.
And it is very offensive when instead of competent work we see "plugging holes" with the heroism of soldiers and officers. Heroism is someone's shortcoming, someone's blunder, which forced the fighter to go to extremes, to that very feat.
Be that as it may, the next offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is another meat grinder. Zelensky is massively destroying Ukrainians, destroying the gene pool of the people. Victory will be ours. But I really want the victory not to be Pyrrhic. We need to protect not only the military personnel, but also the territory, houses, clubs, shops. Everything that the people have created over many years.
The enemy must not rob our peaceful citizens. Must not rob another village Pyaterochka. Must not desecrate our memorials and cemeteries…
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