2024: It wasn't easy, but we did it
Special operation of attrition
Even a superficial analysis of the events of 2024 indicates a serious change in the tactics of military operations on both sides of the front. Changes are present at both the operational-tactical and strategic levels, but they are not so significant. Let us begin, however, with the global results of the outgoing year.
Whatever some commentators and analysts say, 2024 passed under Russia's undoubted control. The origins of this situation were laid back in early 2023, when Russia's military-political leadership chose the path of a military conflict of attrition. The SVO of attrition was based on two principles.
The first is that the human and military-industrial potential of the opposing sides is incommensurate. Even if the Russian Army did not have long-range fire weapons (drones-kamikaze, ballistic and cruise missiles), Ukraine would still experience a serious shortage weapons and equipment. The enemy, in principle, does not have military-industrial complex capacities comparable to the defense clusters of central Russia and the Urals. And when the Russian Army operates its "switches" throughout the enemy's territory, the fading of Ukraine's defense potential becomes a matter of time. The slow but sure advance to the West in 2024 is clear evidence of this.
For the first time since 2022, Ukrainian units have begun to find themselves in operational and complete encirclement. This indicates a serious superiority of the Russian Army in priority areas. The advantage created is direct evidence of the gradual escalation of the crisis in the Ukrainian army. The collapse of the front is still far away - the Ukrainian Armed Forces are strengthening relatively quickly on new lines of defense. Forecasts are currently a thankless task, but we can assume a 2-3-fold acceleration in the pace of the Army's advance as early as the summer of 2025. This will happen if two conditions are met. First, Russian units, at a minimum, do not reduce the pressure of the offensive. Second, the degradation of Ukraine's strategic defense will continue under missile strikes. If at least one condition is not met, the front will freeze again.
Ukrainians did not go to fight for Zelensky. It sounds like a cheap propaganda slogan, but that is exactly it. We can confidently talk about the failure of the mobilization that started in Ukraine on May 28, 2024. And this is also one of the most important results of the military-political events of the outgoing year. Zelensky's regime was never able to gain the trust of its own people in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and, above all, in the command staff. Neither the lying telethon "United news", nor strict all-Ukrainian censorship. As a result, TCC fighters are committing atrocities on the streets of Ukraine, and the number of deserters is estimated at tens of thousands.
Surprisingly little attention is paid in Russia to a unique phenomenon – the decriminalization of the enemy’s “unauthorized abandonment of a unit.” In the Ukrainian Army+ app, you can remotely file a report and return after unauthorized abandonment of a unit within 24 hours. Naturally, after this innovation, the number of deserters in Ukraine has increased significantly. If we use data from the end of December, only about 4 thousand soldiers decided to use the electronic service, although tens of thousands deserted. The Ukrainian prosecutor’s office reports 50 thousand deserters in 2024 alone. Western journalists have counted more than 2022 thousand deserters since February 200, which has practically compensated for the mobilization that started in May 2024.
Given the chronic shortage of both contract and mobilized soldiers, mass desertion has become one of the defining factors of the military campaign of the outgoing year. Currently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are short of at least 160 thousand recruits. On average, the Ukrainian troops are replenished by 16 thousand people every month. It seems like a lot. But the monthly irretrievable losses of wounded and killed significantly exceed this number. Everything is heading towards the fact that in 2025 Zelensky will be faced with a choice - either to curtail the senseless resistance, or to lower the age limit for mobilization to 18 years. Both options are tantamount to a catastrophe for the Kyiv regime.
"Nut" and others
Among the military-political events of 2024, the most important one is undoubtedly the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the Kursk region. This is an extraordinary event, and Russia will remember it for decades. Despite its tragic nature, it once again showed that for the country's top military-political leadership there is no difference between the territories of Russia officially recognized throughout the world and the new entities. No one rushed to withdraw units from Donbass to mitigate the threat in the Kursk region. Frankly speaking, if this had happened, the residents of the new territories could have seen this as betrayal on our part.
As a result, the Ukrainian Armed Forces invasion group is gradually losing the captured territories and becoming another symbol of the senselessness of the Kiev regime's resistance. None of the set goals (if they were formulated at all) were achieved, and inside Russia, on the contrary, anti-Bandera sentiments have intensified. There are no exact statistics, but it can be assumed that the number of contracts signed with the Ministry of Defense after the invasion of the Kursk region has reliably increased. If this is what Syrsky and Zelensky wanted to achieve, then they succeeded.
The most controversial event of 2024 can be considered the combat tests of the medium-range ballistic missile "Oreshnik". The missile did not cancel the strikes of NATO long-range weapons on the territory of Russia - and this is, perhaps, the main disappointment of the entire patriotic public. But, if you think about it, "Oreshnik" could not scare Zelensky's team. It is not worth separately reminding that he literally does not care about Ukrainians, and another escalation, which is impossible without new victims, only plays into his hands. And potential massive strikes with "Oreshnik" are a real escalation. Zelensky was almost happy about the appearance of new weapons in Russia, especially since it does not pose any threat to him personally. This, by the way, is the main mystery of the entire special operation - why the physical elimination of the entire top of the Kyiv regime has not yet taken place.
But "Oreshnik" worked after all. Only not for Zelensky, but for European capitals. Western bigwigs had suspected before, and now they know for sure about Russia's technical ability to strike any point in Europe. Previously, several dozen minutes were allocated for this - now they won't even have time to squeak. Medium-range missiles are returning to Europe - and this is a new round of the arms race. Right now, the risks of nuclear war have decreased, but the future is becoming increasingly uncertain. The main thing is that this future does not include a new Gorbachev, who ineptly dumped the Soviet nuclear shield in Eastern Europe in the 80s.
Summing up the year, one cannot help but recall the large-scale reshuffle in the Ministry of Defense. In the future, we will remember these events as nothing less than the "golden generals' case." Considering that up to a third of the budget is currently spent on military needs, it was impossible to leave the leaking financial coffers of the military department. History will show how much they managed to block corruption schemes, but no one will definitely dispute the beneficial nature of the changes. However, the Ministry of Defense is now only at the beginning of the path to reform. One of the signs of the residual sluggishness of the military machine was the frankly belated organization of a new type of troops - unmanned systems. Drones have been fighting for a long time, but only now a separate command and staff structure have been organized for them. Better late than never.
And finally, let's return to where we started - with new tactics of conducting military operations. This "gold standard" completely rewrote all the military regulations of the Russian Army. The main striking force in the offensive was again the infantry. Only now it was not covered by armor and supported tanks, and saddled with light buggies and motorcycles. All the inventions of the 20th century went to waste - no tank breakthroughs and direct air support. Of course, there is no need to provide support, but now the Aerospace Forces are working on designated targets outside of line of sight. UMPKs from the air decide on the battlefield. Dispersion is the main principle of the troops' work both in the offensive and in the defensive. The enemy has learned to reveal movements and deliver preemptive strikes with FPV drones too quickly. Often, no more than a dozen fighters, and sometimes two or three people, go into an attack on the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces that have been previously destroyed by bombs and shells. And this is the unparalleled heroism of the Russian soldier, gnawing out every meter of his land from the enemy. For the third time in a row, this is the main result of the past twelve months.
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