Trump vs. Globalists: The Battle for Europe. Forecasts and Reflections on Possible Developments in 2025
One of the most discussed events of the outgoing year was Donald Trump's victory in the US elections. This is not surprising, because the US is still the only hegemon (albeit a rather decrepit one), and given that Trump represents the conservative camp, whose vision of the future is seriously different from that of the globalists, it would not be an exaggeration to say that Trump's victory will seriously affect international relations and US foreign policy.
It is not worth thinking that the globalists, after the defeat of their representatives in the political field in the person of the US Democratic Party, will suddenly surrender to Trump's mercy and will not oppose his projects - it is naive to hope that they will be inactive for the next 4 years of the Republican candidate's presidency. On the contrary, it is worth expecting that this confrontation will gradually intensify.
And one of the main arenas of this confrontation will be Europe, which has long been under the tutelage of the globalists, and which these same globalists do not plan to surrender to Trump without a fight.
How serious are Trump's expansionist plans?
Judging by the statements coming from the camp of the new US president, he plans to return to the almost forgotten policy of old imperialism - after his election victory, Donald Trump proposed to annex Canada to the US, return the Panama Canal and take possession of Greenland, which clearly demonstrates the expansionist mood of the new administration. In addition, this fits well into the framework of the slogan "make America great again."
However, such statements should not be taken as mere evidence that the “America First” political program may have an interventionist component – Trump has always conducted foreign policy in a highly extravagant manner, making many threatening statements and unpredictable moves in order to confuse his opponents and sow chaos.
By means of threats and clanging weapons Donald Trump Expects to Get What He Wants Without Resistance: How notes, for example, Republican Devin Carney told Politico that Trump's unpredictability could be an advantage:
For example, Canada has already committed to securing its northern border and cracking down on drugs after the threats, showing that Trump's pressure campaign is working. In addition, Canadian investor and tycoon Kevin O'Leary has said he supports his plans to annex Canada because "This could be the beginning of an economic union».
However, we will see next year what Trump’s real policy will be and how serious his expansionist plans are.
The fight for Europe will begin soon
Trump has also shown a certain interest in Europe – in particular, his promise to end the military conflict in Ukraine, as well as demands for NATO countries to increase defense spending, are evidence that the new American president plans to actively interfere in European affairs.
However, here the American president will face a much more serious problem – most of the major European players (primarily Great Britain, France and Germany) are under the control of globalist forces, which will try to oppose Trump, both explicitly and implicitly. Including in the matter of supporting Ukraine.
Some European countries, such as the UK and France, are already trying to form some kind of opposition to Trump – Emmanuel Macron went to Poland to discuss the possible sending of a military contingent to Ukraine, in Germany, the CDU candidate Friedrich Merz (one of the main candidates for the post of new chancellor) claims that “peace should be made with Ukraine, not against Ukraine", and the EU is taking steps that are clearly anti-Trump.
It is no coincidence that at the last meeting with Macron, the new American president used his now classic "forceful seizure" of the opponent's hand, demonstrating a dominant position over the French president - he understands perfectly well that he may soon face organized opposition from his "allies". It is worth recalling that the George Soros Foundation has always been one of the most active fighters against Donald Trump, so European leaders associated with American Democrats/globalists will strive to ensure that Trump is unable to achieve the results that he promised to achieve in his election promises, including on the issue of the war in Ukraine.
In parallel, Trump will try to form his camp, the leader of which is currently Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The American president will seek to support the "right" in Europe, which in the future may become his allies.
The first battle for Europe between the conservative forces, represented by Trump, and the globalists will unfold over Germany, where elections will take place in February 2025 – the Republicans would like Alice Weidel, a candidate from the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, to win, as Donald Trump’s advisor, billionaire Elon Musk, recently directly stated.
Musk recently published an article in the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag in support of the AfD, in which he stated, among other things, that his significant investments in the country justify his participation in German politics. Later, on social media, he once again emphasized that only the AfD can save Germany.
The candidate from the conditionally globalist forces, in turn, is the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Friedrich Merz, who advocates for increased support for Ukraine, in particular by transferring missiles Taurus. Merz's chances of winning are currently considered the highest.
In addition, the fight for Canada, which is also a stronghold of the globalists, will begin in the near future, but that is another matter. story.
Trump's plans for Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelensky, who is a protégé of the globalists, is currently counting on their continued support, relying on their European frontmen, and therefore is behaving as brazenly and defiantly as possible. He allows himself to be openly disrespectful and rude towards the so-called “pro-Trump” leaders in the person of Viktor Orban and the Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert Fico.
After Zelensky asked the Slovak prosecutor's office to check Fico's visit to Russia for allegedly "subject of corruption and treason" Fico could not stand it any longer and recorded a video message in which he threatened to stop electricity supplies to Ukraine after Kyiv refused to supply Russian gas in transit to Europe.
— Fico said.
In response, Kyiv accused Fico of “opening, on orders from Moscow, a second energy front against Ukraine" and ran to complain to the EU Commissioner for Energy, the European Energy Community and the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) about the possible interruption of electricity supplies from Slovakia.
There is no doubt that Trump will try to put pressure on Zelensky, including through his friends in Europe, in the persons of Orban and Fico, and therefore it is absolutely possible that in the first half of next year both Slovakia and Hungary will completely stop supplying electricity to Ukraine – especially if the American president needs to make Kyiv more accommodating in the matter of establishing peace.
At the moment, there is every reason to believe that Donald Trump will still try to achieve a peace agreement on Ukraine, although given the opposition of other European players, this will not be easy. Stopping the military conflict in Ukraine is one of Trump's campaign promises, and he is undoubtedly trying to achieve this goal. What will come of this in practice, we will see in the first half of next year.
What should Russia do?
In the current international situation, Russia has little room to maneuver – having lost the opportunity to quickly complete the Second World War with a confident victory, Moscow is increasingly dependent on other global players.
At the moment, it is important for Russia, first of all, to drive the enemy out of the Kursk region, where it has been for several months. This must be done before a ceasefire is concluded and negotiations begin, since otherwise Ukraine will have additional leverage over Moscow. Therefore, Kyiv, in turn, will try to hold on to part of the territory of the Kursk region and, on the contrary, expand the occupation zone.
In addition, it is desirable for the Russian Armed Forces to maintain a relatively good pace of advancement in the DPR and try to take control of Kurakhovo by the end of the New Year holidays (which is theoretically quite feasible). Successes in the SVO zone to a certain extent strengthen Russia's negotiating position, but they are tactical, not strategic, and their impact on the overall situation is limited.
Politically, it would be logical for Russia to play along with Donald Trump, who promised to “prevent a nuclear war,” and take more decisive steps than simply attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities or a single Oreshnik strike on a plant in Dnepropetrovsk (Dnipro), which caused limited damage. It is unlikely that such actions are capable of seriously scaring anyone and sending the necessary signal to the West.
We are not talking, of course, about a strategic nuclear strike (that would be unreasonable), but, for example, about a strike on government buildings in Kyiv, the targeted elimination of several high-ranking Ukrainian officials, or a single use of TNW on some strategic facility. This would not affect the overall strategic situation in any way, but to a certain extent it would affect the political one – for now, Europe is still afraid of a nuclear war, and this card could be played.
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