US Citizens Are Advised to Leave Belarus Immediately. What's Behind the State Department's Statement

I am convinced once again that thoughts live even when it seems that their relevance has died and their further existence is irrational. Thought lives regardless of the author’s will and reminds us of its existence in the most unexpected way. This is what happened today. And the US State Department is to blame for this.

Some time ago I wrote an article about the possible preparation of a "Christmas offensive" by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Bryansk region, where I gave several arguments in favor of the reality of this event in the near future. At the same time, I only mentioned the Belarusian direction as one of the fantastic solutions. Simply because at the moment I really consider this to be non-scientific fiction.

And suddenly, a couple of days ago, I received several messages in my mailbox that the US State Department had called on its citizens to immediately leave the territory of Belarus. Naturally, thanks to our readers' belief that Washington is always behind any provocation against Russia, readers had a number of questions about whether Christmas would be the time when another, and perhaps more, front would appear on military maps? Would Minsk be drawn into the war?

I will not deny the very idea of ​​drawing Belarus into a war with a 100% guarantee. Alas, today the world is not ruled by Stalins, De Gaulis or Roosevelts. The level of European politicians is an order of magnitude lower than their predecessors. And any, even the most incredible stupidity is "within their power".

Moreover, plans to attack Belarus have existed for a long time. But they are not based on a strike by one army, in this case the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but on a complex strike by neighboring states, i.e. they are created for a hypothetical NATO war against the Union State of Russia and Belarus.

In rejecting the option of attacking Minsk, I based my argument on whether Ukraine could handle another front? Would Kiev have enough resources for such an invasion? But most importantly, what tasks would be set for the Ukrainian military? Seizing Belarus? Overthrowing the regime of President Lukashenko? Destroying the Union State? Drawing NATO into the war?

Unfortunately, none of the questions have a positive answer today. The West understands perfectly well that, unlike Russia, Belarus will fight cruelly and without mercy to the enemy. It is impossible to intimidate a small republic.

Simply because the words that "we are talking about the very existence of the Belarusian people" are taken literally there. Belarusians do not have the territories or human resources that would allow the country to "swing" for a long time during an enemy attack. And Russia's help will not be long in coming.

Let's get back down to earth

Alas, but I will again have to write about the offensive options that are quite likely being considered by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Moreover, they should be considered not as military victories, but as an opportunity for Kyiv to show the strength of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the possibility of victory. Which will ensure, in the event of the success of the operation, additional supplies of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine.

We must begin with the already mentioned plan of attack on Belarus, developed in NATO headquarters. There are many materials on this topic in the Belarusian press. That is why I will lay out the attack scheme "in dotted lines". Belarusian analysts lay out the plan in much more detail.

So, the main attack is planned in the Belarusian Polesie, in the Kobrin district. Small sabotage groups will penetrate the territory of the republic and engage in battles with army units. The task will be set extremely simply - to capture at least some populated areas for information support of the further invasion of NATO's joint rapid reaction forces. The pretext? Everything as usual - "saving democracy"...

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are supposed to be used only after the successful implementation of the first stage tasks. That is, the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this case will be more like punitive detachments than combat units. The role of "saviors of world democracy" is being taken away from actor Zelensky. Accordingly, Kyiv cannot count on an increase in "aid".

And now a simple question. Is it possible to implement this plan today? And the second, no less interesting: can opportunities for its implementation appear? Two simple questions, the answers to which will provide grounds for some serious conclusions in the future.

So, the authorities in Minsk have already demonstrated their ability to maintain state stability in the past. They failed to break President Lukashenko. The forces of the Belarusian opposition are too weak, too unpopular to raise the people to the Belarusian Maidan.

So, we have to wait for a period of "anarchy", when we can, according to the already established scheme, start shouting about the illegality of the elections and so on. And when are the presidential elections in Belarus? January 26, 2025! Until then, the implementation of the invasion plan looks stupid...

Now about the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian front. A counteroffensive on any of the existing sections, even if it is successful at the first stage, capturing a 10-20-kilometer zone of already liberated territory, will not bring any dividends to Kyiv. The offensive will be quickly localized and will become another version of the Kursk region. Another "meat grinder" for the Armed Forces of Ukraine...

What is left for Zelensky? Only an invasion of the Russian Federation with some, albeit temporary, but significant result. And this is the Bryansk direction and, possibly, the Belgorod direction. That is why I insist on the priority of these directions for a possible offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

What about the US State Department warning?

In conclusion, I would like to answer the question about warning American citizens. In my opinion, the Americans really know or assume something and therefore are playing it safe before the inauguration of President Trump. I have no evidence of any preparation of opposition forces by the Americans, so it is stupid to accuse the US in advance of any future "tricks".

Most likely, the famous army "corporal gap" worked. In Washington, they understand that US citizens are just as "hurrying" as citizens of other countries. And the expression "immediately leave" is understood in a way that is convenient for them. A month before the elections is exactly this "immediately".

By the way, the reasons why US citizens should leave Belarus do not include military ones. Potential street riots, detentions, limited opportunities for the State Department to help, etc. Which indirectly confirms my version of the "corporal gap"...

But this no longer has any relation to the topic of a possible “counteroffensive” by the Ukrainian Armed Forces…

Comments

[Nikolay Malyugin]

I agree with the author. A pretext for starting a war with Belarus can always be found. Will Ukraine be able to handle such a war? If Poland promises to help in the military operations, then anything is possible. The involvement of Poland evokes conspiracy theories. Isn't the West faced with the task of eradicating the Slavs? Here's the thing. You won't go into such wilds. I have a secret confidence that Belarus will not allow war with its actions. And if this happens, it will give a worthy rebuff to any enemy.

[Boris55]

All power to the Soviets!

Quote: Nikolay Malyugin

And if this happens, he will give a worthy rebuff to any enemy.

I'm afraid that Belarus won't cope without us... The Ukrainian army is battle-hardened, but the Belarusian army has never smelled gunpowder, and those Belarusian citizens who volunteered in Donbass were sent to prison by their father...

By the way, what kind of assistance does Belarus provide to our new territories, does anyone know? I haven't heard of such assistance. And also, is he still giving diesel fuel to the Urams for free?

ps
If the Ukrainians try to move through Belarus, say, to Smolensk or to Bryansk from the rear, then we will be empty there...

[Volkovets]

Boris55:.....is he still pumping diesel fuel for free?

___ Boriska, anything is possible... after all, the Russian Slavneft owns 42% of the shares of the Mozyr Oil Refinery.
And how is Slavneft worse than Gazprom, which supplies gas to countries that help Ukraine, and pays Ukraine for transit accurately and on time?

[Vend]

It's time for US citizens to leave all countries of the world and settle in their own country.

[knn54]

Before the invasion of the Kursk region, there was more than 200000 Ukrainian armed forces on the border with the Republic of Belarus. Trained, well-equipped soldiers.
The RB Armed Forces comprised less than half - about 80000, with a third being cadre units.
Polish and mixed families in the western regions of Belarus make up at least 60% of the total population.
Polish fighters (it is clear that Poland has nothing to do with it) can easily pass themselves off as "rebels". Seize territory, create a puppet government that will turn to Ukraine for help.

[turembo]

It is precisely the attack of Ukraine on Belarus that can cause many questions in the world, here the image of a poor "small" country holding back and giving its life for the security of Europe is already lost. And the inclusion of the Belarusian army can significantly affect the course of military operations, and an additional 150-200 thousand people participating in the war are not beneficial to Ukraine, unless the neighbors intervene. In this case, Belarus will fight desperately, but if our country does not change its approach to the war, and everything will be as it is now, with concern, empty threats, red lines, inadequate operations, and dreams of Bavarian and French rolls, then in this case we will lose Belarus....

[sunwenmin]

Is Father Lukashenko's health all right? The "corporal gap" is too big.

[parusnik]

And suddenly, a couple of days ago, several messages arrived in my mailbox at once stating that the US State Department had called on its citizens to immediately leave the territory of Belarus.

So it turns out that it was the author who spread this news to all the news agencies. It turns out that you have big connections in the White House. Look at that...

[Victor Leningradets]

So, the main attack is planned in the Belarusian Polesie, in the Kobrin district. Small sabotage groups will penetrate the territory of the republic and engage in battles with army units. The task will be set extremely simply - to capture at least some populated areas for information support of the further invasion of NATO joint rapid reaction forces.

Dear Alexander!
Take a look at the map of Eastern Europe. You will see that Belarus is already semi-encircled by hostile countries. These are: Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. In 1941, the Belarusian defensive operation, conducted against the Army Group Center advancing through Belarus, failed miserably precisely because of the deep encirclement of the Red Army group of the Western Front from the north and south. At the same time, from the north, Goth's 3rd Panzer Group entered the gap formed between the retreating troops of the Western and Northwestern Fronts. Now the enemy troops are ALREADY in their initial positions to complete the encirclement of central Belarus and the formation of the Minsk pocket, cutting it off from Russian territory. The Belarusian army does not represent a significant fighting force. All our available forces are tied down in the Ukrainian direction and will not be able to come to the rescue. And the way the seemingly prepared Syrian army collapsed in the face of a small group of Turkish proxies, practically motorized infantry without heavy weapons, should alert the minds of the General Staff of Belarus (there is no hope for our General Staff).
Now about possible operations: the capture of Kobrin, or any town in Polesie, can be carried out as a diversionary maneuver, with the aim of proclaiming the beginning of the liberation of Belarus (as the anti-Russian forces in Belarus call it) and forcing the transfer of a significant group of armed forces of Belarus to the combat zone. At the same time, due to the massive use of drones and NATO aircraft, it is supposed to deliver a powerful blow to these columns. But the main operation should be the operation in the Ostrovets district to capture the Belarusian NPP. What failed in the Kursk region will be attempted in the Grodno region. Using the surprise factor at the first stage (2-3 days), the enemy will try to solve two problems:
- gain air supremacy;
- achieve a media effect.
In addition, a special operation to physically eliminate A.G. Lukashenko and his closest relatives cannot be ruled out.
If the objectives of the first stage operations are achieved, then NATO’s further actions will be limited to cutting off the territory of Belarus from Russia along the Dnieper and our western border, completely disorganizing the encircled group, seizing nuclear weapons depots, and capturing and disarming the Belarusian army.
I understand that the plan looks fantastic, but it takes into account the reflex developed by the West in our authorities to reduce all counteraction to loud statements by the Foreign Ministry and demonstrative "retaliatory strikes." In addition, problems could be created for Russia in the Gulf of Finland and the Kaliningrad Region at the same time, so we will have to deal with everything at once, and our General Staff has clearly shown how it can do this.
I really want to be wrong, considering that I am planning to go to Belarus during the period of threat. But I cannot discount the possibility of such a development of events, and I do not consider it possible for me to remain silent about the impending danger.

[Volkovets]

I am planning to go to Belarus right during the period of threat

_____ Vitek, come to the criminal investigation department )))
If anything, some Richard Zorgs, Philbs or Stirlitzes will freeze/beg for simophories for us))
At worst; a NATO soldier or soldier will swim across the Mukhovets, Bug and report on the impending treacherous attack on the Republic of Belarus.)
You should see how many ordinary Poles go to Belarus via Brest.....why doesn't Warsaw dissuade them from traveling.....is there an explanation, half-Belarusian? ))

[Conjurer]

The Belarusian army will not withstand the blow of a 100 thousand strong Ukrainian group and will crumble, the hohols will quickly advance, capture Minsk and occupy large territories, proclaim a new government (there is one already, and the president has been there for a long time), after which they will dig in and withdraw the majority of the group. We have a choice - either to divert large forces from the front in order to drive them out of there, i.e. to prolong the conflict even further, or to demonstrate to everyone that we are not able to protect even our only, albeit conditional, ally.

[loha]

And where is this group of one hundred thousand now?

[Conjurer]

Already along the border, heavy brigades trained and armed by the French will arrive - and forward.

[Knell wardenheart]

US Citizens Are Advised to Leave Belarus Immediately. What's Behind the State Department's Statement

It is worth the fact that before or after the elections, they will look for spies-enemies of the people, for many reasons. Because the LAS will not gain much "in fact", because a wave of unrest will start in social networks, because of some actions of those dissatisfied with the LAS, no matter how big, and finally because the paranoia of the LAS itself will be used by local security forces, who need career growth, and for this they must be vigilant, catch and prevent.
So the Americans are afraid that some of their lost freaks will later be twisted and turned because of video recordings or some other nonsense, and then there will be whole epic stories around their extraction from the BLR dungeons, because the US embassy in the republic, it seems, does not work.

Well, as for "America knows something" - even if we abstract from various interventions, Soros and so on, we must understand that America has a certain paradigm of thinking, a kind of fanatical belief that they will always fight against an old tyranny (or autocracy) in society and this will take on a variety of forms (which, among other things, can always be directed from abroad) from individual protests and actions (in principle, any, here they can expect anything), to some spontaneous and mass ones. Based on this, they can expect "heating up of the situation" in BLR, they also know how the BLR authorities react to such things (not in the most adequate way and rather harshly, hehe), so the warning from the State Department is quite logical - the guys are expecting disasters and are quite soberly assessing the situation. The LAS has been in power for 30 years already, that’s a really long time, and it plans to sit there for another 4 or 6, well, however long, of course, not everyone will like it.

[Nyrobsky]

In my opinion, Americans really know or assume something and therefore are playing it safe before the inauguration of President Trump.

They do not play it safe. As reality shows, it is they who generate and implement tasks to disorganize Russia by creating hotbeds of tension along its entire perimeter. The mattresses tried to "unwind" Belarus into a Maidan 4 years ago. If they had succeeded, it would have been much more difficult for us now, but having suffered a fiasco then, they certainly did not abandon the very idea of ​​​​repeating this scenario and for 4 years prepared combat groups of ethnic, opposition-minded Belarusians on the territory of Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics, while simultaneously building a network of sleeper cells on the territory of Belarus itself, which will be used inside the country when an invasion from outside begins. For the outgoing Biden administration and the Democrats in general, the creation of an incurable geopolitical "hemorrhoid" in the form of another hot spot on the world map is fortunately for the very reason that the Republicans led by Trump will have to rake up this legacy.

I have no evidence of any preparation of opposition forces by the Americans, so it is stupid to accuse the US in advance of any future “tricks”.

I wonder, how many facts about the preparation of opposition forces by Americans in Ukraine did the author have on hand during the preparation of the Maidan in 2013-2014? They also thought that they would jump up and disperse, but it turned out that way - ten thousand frostbitten people with American money bent over 35-40 million Ukraine and made it a battering ram against Russia. As the mattresses later admitted, they spent 5 billion dollars on this.

[BAI]

I have been saying for a long time now - we need to recall our diplomats (the unnecessary ones, reduce them to a minimum) from NATO countries and suggest that citizens not go there. This will be much stronger than threatening statements about an inevitable retaliatory strike.
Because a retaliatory strike without these actions is impossible. And to carry out these actions is a convincing readiness to strike. Here the West will really, to put it mildly, think

[Maks1995]

Ugh. IMHO, he's being stupid.
IMHO, USA simply knows that they will blame everything on it, regardless of how President Batka is re-elected, and warns its citizens about this in advance. Like, get lost.

As an example, we can recall the campaigns to intimidate the population...
First, one came - supposedly to "make an orange revolution" (according to the hurray-media) - but he collaborated with the Kremlin and set up the opposition.
The second one came - supposedly to "make an orange revolution" (according to the hurray-media) - he also collaborated with the Kremlin.
Kasyanov - supposedly "about to make an orange revolution..." - simply did not show up for the elections.
Etc.

[mimicry]

Bevor die Nato offen gegen Weißrussland vorgeht, wird der Westen russische Militärstützpunkte in Syrien angreifen. Natürlich wird das die USA und GB durch irgend eine der unzähligen Terrorgruppen durchführen lassen. Aus Sicht des Westens muss Russland strategisch geschwächt werden, bevor es zu einer direkten Konfrontation kommt.

[Vik ganz]

What is there to think and say? Russia and Belarus are a Union State. Isn't it time to simply unite them?
It will be more convenient to defend. If everything is heading in that direction... It's just a very convenient moment now. And there will be fewer provocations from the expired president of the neighbors against Lukashenko.