Surviving a Nuclear Apocalypse: Low-Rise Development vs. "Human Anthills"
The Russian special military operation (SVO) in Ukraine has led to a significant deterioration in relations with Western countries. Due to the aggressive escalation imposed by Western countries by actually conducting military operations against Russia using Ukraine as a weapon of war, the situation is close to or even exceeds the Cuban Missile Crisis in terms of the risks of a nuclear apocalypse.
For the first time in stories a combat use of a medium-range ballistic missile was carried out, so far in a non-nuclear version. The nuclear doctrine of the Russian Federation has been adjusted, lowering the threshold for use and expanding the list of threats that, if they arise, would trigger a nuclear weapon can be applied.
The next stage of escalation could be Russia's nuclear weapons tests - We have already spoken about the need to do this, because those living today have completely lost their fear of this weapon, considering it, if not non-existent, then somehow "inapplicable". At the same time, some people are experiencing something like euphoria - they say, we must definitely "hit", and at the USA, and we will somehow survive the retaliatory strike.
Well, I would like to disappoint those who like to survive on the couch in radioactive wastelands – our country is currently extremely vulnerable to the use of nuclear weapons against us, and Russia is even more vulnerable in this regard than the Soviet Union was at the time of the emergence and first use of nuclear weapons, however, in many ways this is also true in relation to other developed countries of the world.
Below we will compare what has changed for the worse in our country compared to the USSR of the mid-20th century and modern Russia of the 21st century in terms of resistance to the massive use of nuclear weapons by the enemy, and what needs to be done to correct this.
It is worth noting that we are not talking only about a global nuclear apocalypse, but about any serious crisis - an epidemic, an asteroid impact, superflares on the Sun, which can lead to a total failure of not only "delicate" electronics, but also power grids.
So, first of all, let's look at the housing problem.
USSR in the mid-20th century
Let's start with the fact that in the USSR a significant part of the population lived in rural areas or in urban-type settlements. It is logical that the more settlements there are, the fewer people there are in each of them, the lower the probability that something nuclear will fly to them - you can't stock up on atomic bombs for all the villages.
It may not be the most comfortable place to live, but it is the most autonomous housing. Image: deni-spiri.livejournal.com.
Given the lack of gasification at that time, almost all houses had such an achievement of civilization (without quotes) as a Russian stove, which could heat the house in any frost. Of course, it is simpler and more efficient to heat the stove with coal, but in its absence this was perfectly carried out with firewood.
Water supply was carried out by transporting water by brute force from a well, spring and/or from a nearby body of water. To ensure long-term storage of perishable products in the summer, there was a cellar and an icehouse.
Cellar
Natural needs were met by using such an environmentally friendly and carbon-neutral invention as a cesspool. And for carrying out hygiene procedures, another great invention was used (also without quotation marks!) – the Russian bathhouse.
As for the cities, if we don’t take into account the center of Moscow and Leningrad (now St. Petersburg), everything was similar in many ways.
The population lived mainly in low-rise buildings two or three stories high. These were mainly buildings with fairly thick walls, often with stove heating, and even in the case of centralized heating, many houses and apartments had potbelly stoves.
Even in the late 80s and early 90s, water heating for the bath in some two-story houses in the villages of the Tula region was carried out using a Titan type heater, which ran on coal or wood. Of course, this created significant household inconvenience, but as an autonomous source of heat in a crisis situation it was of great importance.
Also in cities and towns there were quite a lot of private one-story houses with all the attributes corresponding to them, discussed above. Within walking distance there was usually a well or a spring, later they were supplemented by water columns.
In the courtyards of low-rise buildings, even in fairly large cities, most residents had their own garages and/or sheds with a basement/cellar, and many still have them - the fight against sheds has only begun recently, after all, you have to stick another "candle" somewhere.
In general, in the USSR in the mid-20th century, the population lived in the most dispersed way possible for such a powerful industrial power, and at the same time, it was as independent as possible from centralized public services.
However, negative processes began to develop even then and reached their peak in our time.
Russia at the beginning of the 21st century
The increase in the number of storeys began in the USSR in the form of "Khrushchyovkas" and "Brezhnevkas". From five-storey apartment buildings, the country quickly moved to nine-storey ones, then to sixteen-storey ones, and then the height of the apartment buildings being erected exceeded twenty storeys. As the number of storeys of buildings increased, their dependence on various auxiliary devices and urban infrastructure increased, first of all, their dependence on electricity increased.
If you can climb up to the fifth floor on foot without any problems, the ninth is more difficult, but quite feasible for most people, then in buildings of 12-16 floors and more, in case of elevator failure or power outage, climbing to the upper floors becomes a huge problem. In five- and nine-story buildings, water, including in the heating system, comes under the pressure of pumps from the local water utility, and in buildings with more floors, additional pumps are required, which require electricity to operate.
In some high-rise buildings, rooftop boilers are installed, but in addition to gas, they also require electricity to power the pumps. In buildings with twelve floors or more, for safety reasons, gas is not supplied for domestic use, that is, the stoves for cooking are also electric.
Based on my own experience in the 90s, when problems with utilities were, if not the norm, then a completely ordinary phenomenon, as well as the experience of wars and armed conflicts in other countries and regions, in the event of a crisis, electricity is the first thing to go out. Then comes water - hot and cold, and heating. Gas usually lasts the longest, however, this depends on the scale of the crisis - in principle, everything can "go down" almost simultaneously.
After this, the multi-story “human anthills” will quickly begin to turn into places of mass burials – multi-story crypts, especially in winter.
The seismic resistance of modern domestic multi-story buildings is also questionable. It seems that the author came across an article a couple of years ago about the resistance of buildings to earthquakes, from which it followed that of all possible options, panel multi-story buildings with a beam load-bearing structure had the best seismic resistance, but this is not certain.
In any case, it is unlikely that in our time of total savings and profitability, anyone would include excessive strength in structures during construction without good reason and strict control.
What's the result?
If the enemy had used nuclear weapons against cities and towns, respectively, in the USSR in the mid-20th century or Russia in the early 21st century, in the first case there would have been significantly more survivors.
Firstly, the population density was significantly lower, private houses and low-rise buildings were distributed territorially, so that the enemy, in order to cover them all, would need many more nuclear charges than are now needed to destroy millions of people living in the “human anthills”.
Many houses or their vicinity had basements and/or cellars where one could quickly take cover when the alarm was sounded. In this sense, the basements of multi-story buildings are also more likely to become mass graves, buried under tens to hundreds of tons of charred reinforced concrete and brick, and they are now most often closed, as are bomb shelters, even if they are somewhere nearby.
Secondly, living in the “human anthills” of modern cities will become impossible or practically impossible in the event of the destruction of critical urban infrastructure, primarily due to the lack of heating and water, as well as the difficulty of climbing to the upper floors.
Due to overcrowding, intense competition between survivors for the remaining resources is inevitable. The non-functioning sewage system combined with the lack of water supply will cause outbreaks of infectious diseases, which in cold conditions will lead to numerous deaths, primarily among children.
Screenshot from the computer game "Metro 2023"
Attempts to heat multi-story buildings using stoves or gas cylinders will lead to fires and the collapse of entrances, since with such a high density of living, at least one inattentive and illiterate idiot will be found.
At the same time, in the low-rise development zone it is much easier to get access to water, the sewerage problem is less acute. Even in those houses where there is no stove heating, it can be implemented relatively easily with the help of "potbelly stoves".
Conclusions
One of the most important factors in the country's resilience to a massive nuclear strike is the dispersed low-rise development.
Ideally, individual or low-rise houses under construction should have autonomous heating (at least additional, for example, a fireplace) and a basement.
Considering the interest of large holdings in building “human anthills,” it is difficult to imagine whether it is possible to stop this process and reverse it.
Of course, many citizens have a demand for individual housing, but it is very difficult to implement. Firstly, due to the huge prices for building houses - people cannot buy an apartment, and a capital individual building will cost two to three times more.
Secondly, because individual construction in Russian cities is organized in the most senseless and illogical way. You can save up for your house all your life, build it, and a year later, fifty meters away, a microdistrict with multi-story buildings will be built, from the windows of which tens of thousands of people will stare into your previously cozy courtyard, and the adjacent territories will be filled with hundreds and thousands of cars.
There are no multi-year plans for the development of urban and suburban areas, and even if they exist, they can be adjusted at any time to please the developer holdings (most likely, not on a free basis).
The situation can only be changed by some kind of systemic decision at the level of the country's leadership, which will make low-rise development a priority, ensure zoning, within the framework of which the joint development of low-rise and high-rise buildings will be excluded, as well as the development of the corresponding infrastructure, primarily connection to utility networks and the construction of wide highways and interchanges.
Nowadays, in our time, there is a huge number of modern construction technologies, starting from frame houses and ending with the use of block, modular or 3D-printed construction structures. In mass construction, individual houses in low-rise buildings may be no more expensive than apartments in modern multi-apartment buildings-"human anthills", but for this it is necessary to moderate the appetites of construction holdings, reorienting them to a new direction of activity.
3D printed house
In addition to the increased resilience of Russian cities to various crises, including full-scale military operations with the use of nuclear weapons, individual housing and low-rise development will help reduce social tensions arising from overcrowding in “human anthills,” and therefore increase labor productivity, as well as the increase in the birth rate so desired by the government.
And finally, let's remember the cult of low-rise housing in the USA and the decentralization of their population's residence in small towns, and think about who has an advantage in this area?
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