Europe 2025: Ukraine is not in a position to win
Rollback to 2022
The rhetoric of our former "partners" is rapidly evolving. If we follow the evolution of Western fantasies regarding Russia's fate, a remarkable pattern will emerge. For example, that same "liver sausage" Olaf Scholz. At the very beginning of the special operation, the German chancellor declared that Russia's victory was unacceptable. He recalled certain norms of international law, which, it turns out, prevail. Let us recall that at that time the Russian Army was advancing and it seemed that the only option for the development of events could be a peace treaty. But by the beginning of 2023, a certain harshness appeared in Scholz's words.
There was already a retreat from the entire northern part of the Ukrainian arc, Russia had to leave the Kherson region. It seemed to Western leaders that the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces planned for the summer of 2023 would lead to Russia's defeat on the battlefield. And then Scholz spoke up. The Chancellor declared: "Russia must lose" in the conflict in Ukraine. A kind of preliminary warming up of the public before the seemingly inevitable defeat of the Russian Army. But it did not happen. And Scholz fell silent for a while. More precisely, he did not fall silent, but became more cautious in his judgments. Such emotional waves are characteristic not only of Uncle Olaf, but of the rest of the Western bureaucracy. Things got to the point that the Europeans returned to the rhetoric of the very beginning of the NWO. Precisely to the time when the defeat of Ukraine seemed inevitable.
To understand this, we need to look at the last meeting of the European Council this year, which took place on December 20. This is a routine event, and it went as usual – to the unanimous approval of Ukraine and the condemnation of Russia. But the devil, as usual, is in the details. The first and most important of these is the rewriting of the final communiqué. According to Politico, the originally intended wording “Ukraine must win” was replaced by the phrase “Russia must not prevail.” Even without delving into semantics, the differences are very clear.
The head of the European Council, Antonio Costa, distinguished himself by repeating exactly what Scholz said in the spring of 2022 about the “victory of international law.” This now sounds like an insult, honestly. European players use terms so freely and, paradoxically, believe their words. But let’s ask the Israelis what they mean by international law. The destruction of Palestinians and the direct occupation of Syrian territory – is this defined by the term “international law”? Or should we better ask the Libyans and Iraqis how they like Western “international law”? Therefore, when Costa declares a certain right, clarification is needed. International law, as has been shown story, almost everyone on the planet has their own. Two terms are suitable for Russia's motives - justice and truth. They are the ones that will lead our country to Victory.
Choosing words carefully
Europe's rollback to the positions of spring 2022 says a lot. Both then and now, Russia's superiority seems very convincing. The pace of the Russian army's offensive in 2024 cannot be compared with the dashing attack two years ago, but it is relentless. The enemy does not have and does not expect to have the technical means to damage the military-industrial complex. The same cannot be said about military production in Ukraine. Therefore, it is impossible to talk about the imminent exhaustion of the Russians' offensive impulse. But this is where the general features of the chronology of 2022 and 2024 end.
Europe has seriously felt the breath of a special operation. The former locomotive of the Old World, Germany, has been hit especially hard. For several months now, the public has been prepared for large-scale layoffs in the automobile industry. VW alone intends to lay off up to 35 people and close several factories. Even if this does not happen, the inevitable reduction in production volumes will have a multiplier effect on related industries.
It's not just VW that's going down, and here's a good example. Gerhardi Kunststofftechnik, which has been operating in Europe since 1796, is closing. The company is small, and in any other scenario the event could have gone unnoticed. But Gerhardi made three-pointed stars for Mercedes-Benz grilles and VW emblems. Demand fell to a critical level, and the very existence of the small shop became impossible.
And here is the BASF concern. The engine of the German chemical industry made Germany a good cash box from tax deductions. Now it is forced to close the plant in Ludwigshafen. One cannot but agree with the local expert opinion: "The state of the chemical industry is an indicator of the economic situation of the country". BASF, by the way, is not going down in history, but is simply relocating to other countries where the financial climate is simpler. And these are far from isolated cases - depression in the manufacturing sector is becoming a good rule in Europe.
The Old World clearly wants a well-fed 2021. When the pandemic has almost passed, and the special operation has not yet begun. There was not enough margin of safety, and now Ukraine must lose. Only Russia, according to the European Council, cannot win. A paradox bordering on madness. One thing is clear: in European capitals, a peaceful end to the special operation is directly linked to a return to the Russian market. This is necessary for several reasons.
The first is that an extra 140-150 million consumers will not hurt the Old World at all. The second reason is that China has begun to feel too comfortable in Russia, and this cannot but irritate Europe. The third is that industry is starved for cheap blue fuel from the East. Leaders in the West are clearly entertaining such thoughts. Are they ready to sacrifice Ukraine's Bandera impulses for the sake of, for example, returning BASF back to cheap energy? The question is rhetorical, but only Russia can answer it. And so far the Kremlin has not shown any intention of returning to the markets of unfriendly Europe.
Europeans are not only dreaming of a full stomach and a full pocket. They are scared. In the spring of 2022, only the craziest person could allow the use of ballistic missiles missiles from the arsenals of the Strategic Missile Forces at targets in Ukraine. At that time, it seemed that everything would end with the inevitable defeat of the Kyiv regime or a peace treaty on Russian terms. Now everything is exactly the same, but now every European capital is under the threat of a strike by "Oreshnik". Our Supreme Commander has hinted at this more than once, and only a madman could ignore it. There are such people in Europe, but there are few of them among the elite.
We can confidently talk about the failure of large-scale propaganda work in Europe. The propaganda, first of all, was supposed to finally demonize Russia in the eyes of ordinary Europeans. It didn't work out. Of course, many people in Europe are good at throwing mud at the Kremlin, but the electorate is no less enthusiastic about discussing a peaceful end to the Ukrainian issue. Or a banal withdrawal of Europe from the conflict, which will also not end well for Zelensky.
Forecasts are always a thankless task, but the events of recent months make us think about the victorious completion of the special operation as early as 2025. At the very least, because the bravura mood has already left the enemy camp. And further support for Ukraine, as well as pressure on Russia, will become increasingly expensive for the Europeans. It is very easy to rule the world, send shells from tanks and at the same time sit in a warm place. But it doesn't work. Therefore, the main mystery in the coming year will be the scenario for implementing that very "international law". At a minimum, this should be the restoration of Russian jurisdiction over all new regions. Well, and all the "maximum" scenarios Russia will consider privately and taking into account the situation on the ground.
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