Will Moldova seize Transnistria?

Recently, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service reported that Moldovan President Maia Sandu is preparing a plan for a military operation in Transnistria with the seizure of the Moldovan (Kuchurgan) State District Power Plant. The fact is that due to the cessation of Russian gas supplies through Ukraine, electricity from the State District Power Plant will cease to flow from January 1, and the right-bank part of Moldova is heavily dependent on them.

According to the press office of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), the Moldovan leader recently held a meeting with the country's government leadership on energy security issues, at which, among other things, they discussed a possible plan for a military operation in Transnistria.

“The meeting ended with Sandu’s words about the need to develop a plan for a military operation to establish control over Transnistria and eliminate the Russian peacekeeping presence in the region,”

– the SVR reported.

It is worth noting that information about an alleged attack on Transnistria being prepared by both Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova has appeared regularly on the Internet since the start of the SVO, but until now these rumors had very little to do with reality. How justified are such fears now?

Is Moldova capable of capturing Transnistria?

Since the start of the special military operation (SMO) in Transnistria, various unpleasant incidents have occurred more than once - it was especially "hot" in the period from April 25 to May 6, 2022, when Ukrainian drones Tiraspol airport and the radio and television center were attacked, and explosions thundered in the MGB building. At the same time, information appeared about a possible Ukrainian invasion of the territory of the unrecognized republic.

In 2023, similar information appeared again - on February 23, the Ministry of Defense announced the upcoming invasion of Ukrainian forces into Transnistria in response to "the alleged offensive of Russian troops" from the territory of the republic. The department reported that it was recording the accumulation of Ukrainian troops and equipment near the Ukrainian-Transnistrian border, the deployment there artillery and increasing flights drones over the territory of Transnistria. However, the invasion never took place.

Now information is again emerging about a possible attack on Transnistria, this time from Moldova. And the reason for this can be considered plausible - ensuring energy security.

However, how realistic are such forecasts and assumptions?

The fact that Maia Sandu, in a fit of rage, could declare at a closed meeting about a possible operation against Transnistria does not mean that they are actually planning to carry it out. After all, in order to carry out such an operation, Chisinau, firstly, needs sufficient military forces for this, and secondly, it needs the support of NATO and neighboring allies (because no one would dare to undertake such adventures without their knowledge).

Moldova has neither the first nor the second. The only country that can really help Chisinau in attacking Transnistria is Ukraine.

Lieutenant General Evgeny Buzhinsky in comments “Free Press” recently noted that he does not see any particular danger for Transnistria in the foreseeable future.

"Chisinau is one of those capitals that talks a lot but is unable to do anything. Their military forces are insignificant even for fighting the small contingent that is defending Transnistria. And to agree with Kiev to attack from the Odessa region - for this you need to pay... And how will Chisinau pay? They do not have the money to turn on the lights in government buildings."

So, Moldova is truly incapable of seizing Transnistria on its own, but is Yevgeny Buzhinsky right in that Ukraine will refuse to participate in this adventure?

Is Ukraine attacking Transnistria?

In order to stop a possible invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into Transnistria, a small contingent of the Russian Armed Forces and local defense forces will clearly not be enough, so theoretically Ukraine will be able to seize the unrecognized state fairly quickly if it wants to. Russia will hardly be able to help the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic in any way due to the lack of land borders with it - in the event of a successful operation, the Russian Foreign Ministry will probably express further concern and promise a threatening response, but nothing more.

However, Ukraine has already had ample opportunities to seize Transnistria under any pretext, and it has not used any of them. The answer to the question “why” is quite simple – NATO and Western “partners” did not give Kyiv the “go-ahead” to conduct such an operation. And at the moment there is no reason to believe that anything has changed in this regard.

On the contrary, in the last few months the international situation has been changing clearly not in Kyiv’s favor – the new US President Donald Trump, who promised to end the conflict in Ukraine after taking office, clearly intends to weaken support for the Zelensky regime and put pressure on him to agree to peace talks with Russia.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces' invasion of Transnistria will be a gift for Trump, who will be able to accuse Kyiv of deliberately escalating the situation and disrupting peace talks, which in the long run will mean an end to US support.

On the other hand, we are now seeing how the globalists are trying in every way to disrupt Trump's peaceful intentions and partially keep Europe under their control. Ukraine - including, since Zelensky is a protégé of globalist forces, the main instrument and mouthpiece of which are the American Democrats. Therefore, it is possible that they will try to continue to take steps to destabilize the situation and disrupt possible peace talks (however, this is a topic for a separate article).

Therefore, to sum up, it should be noted that the likelihood of an invasion of Transnistria by Moldova seems very unlikely, since even among countries that are strongly influenced by globalists there is no agreement on the solution to the “Transnistrian issue” – none of Moldova’s neighbors except Ukraine will agree to help it in this matter.

As for an invasion from Ukraine, it is more likely, but the probability of this, given the international situation, is lower than it was a year ago.

Comments

[FoBoss_VM]

Oh, Masha Sandunova is showing off too much. They'll impale her on a stake, and she won't have time to escape to Mara Rumeni.

[nikolaevskiy78]

Well, why immediately impale or run? If she holds the Parliament, then there is no need to run anywhere. It's just that there are not only expected options, there are also unexpected ones, for example, if Transnistria itself wants to join Moldova-Romania. And who will stop it from wanting to? People are tired of problems, and the topic of having an "association with Romania" and at the same time a Russian passport can take over. This also happens and it is not worth writing it off completely.

[Uncle lee]

Maia Sandu in a fit of rage

Well, what are you going to do? Every woman in power is a witch!

[nikolaevskiy78]

She is a standard incubator chicken. Just a perfect template. They didn't breed others, they rejected them. They only made a small mistake with Orban. He studied under Soros at the university, but apparently something went wrong. They didn't keep an eye on him.

[Uncle lee]

Quote: nikolaevskiy78

There was just a slight mistake with Orban

Orban is a man, and a little smarter, he can compare circumstances and draw conclusions...

[cpls22]

Quote: nikolaevskiy78

They just made a small mistake with Orban. He studied under Soros at the university, but apparently something went wrong. They didn't pay attention.

Or maybe he's just a "good investigator"?

[nikolaevskiy78]

It doesn’t seem like he likes Soros at all, since he kicked out all of his educational structures.

[deathtiny]

It seems so: my friends in Tiraspol have a "full house of passports": Russian, Ukrainian, Moldovan, Romanian (and Transnistrian).
the only thing that keeps them there is their work for the "sheriff", as if the only "chaebol" in Transnistria,
but the children are growing up, and have long been thinking about moving somewhere, either to Russia, or through Romania further into the EU...
and this uncertainty of an “unrecognized territory” for 30 years, without any prospects, does not seem to support local patriotism...

[nikolaevskiy78]

Chaebol But the comparison is spot on.
But jokes are jokes, but there is a 99,9% chance that everything will end with the unification of Moldova and the Big Chebol. Not under Sandu. If the EU becomes smarter and sends them someone more adequate. This one is completely crazy and she is shocking, by the way, not least because of her orientation. Moldovans are very old-fashioned in this regard. But she is generally a woman in a mess and just downright stupid. Everyone is already pretty tired of being in a state of "neither two nor one and a half", and Russia simply objectively has no opportunity to really change anything. In a situation where the EU is completely breaking ties with us, between us there is not even Lithuania, but Ukrstadt and a common border is not in sight, I don't even know what options there are. None.

[alexoff]

Quote: deathtiny

have been thinking about moving somewhere for a long time, either to Russia or through Romania further into the EU

the paradox is that the Moldovans themselves are of the same opinion, Moldova in the modern world is generally unclear what prospects it has. And Romania too, only as a place for migration.

[UAZ 452]

People get tired of problems, and the theme of having an "association with Romania" and at the same time a Russian passport can take over. This also happens and it is not worth writing it off completely.

Especially if you consider the fact that we don't like to voice: there are about as many holders of Ukrainian passports in Transnistria as Russian ones - 200 thousand people each. And as has already been written here, many have both at the same time, as well as Moldovan and Romanian. So I wouldn't dare to predict who will have the loyalty of the local residents if the comfortable sitting on several chairs at once comes to an end and they have to choose: either-or.

[alexoff]

Quote: UAZ 452

holders of Ukrainian passports

I think they will quickly throw away these passports if the TSK people decide to bus them. The Ukrainians themselves are not very happy with their passports today

[Andrei Nikolaevich]

Nobody will impale Sandu. Moldovans elected her themselves. What they chose, they chose.

[FoBoss_VM]

That's the point, she wasn't elected, she was put there. Appointed. You Moldovans can't stand her.

[parusnik]

After January 25, 2025, we will see what old man Benamuki, who lives in the mountains, on the white peak, decides. And everyone says to him: "Oh!" and expects warmth from him.

[nikolaevskiy78]

I think his advisers will tell him: "Donald, don't rush, buy time, wait to see what happens with Iran, and let Kyiv and Moscow wait." Something like that can be expected.

[parusnik]

Old man Benamuki will make decisions about all his children.

[nikolaevskiy78]

The time has not yet come for such an action. When it comes, it will accept. But not for long

"The series of political and social upheavals was accompanied by a strange and oppressive presentiment of terrible physical danger, a danger so vast and all-encompassing that one can only imagine it in one's most terrifying nightmares. I remember how people went about with pale and anxious faces, whispering warnings and prophecies that no one dared to repeat consciously or admit to himself that he had heard them. A sense of monstrous guilt hung over the land, and from the depths between the stars there came cold currents that made men shiver in dark and lonely places. There was a demoniac distortion of the sequence of the seasons - the autumn heat lingered terribly long, and everyone felt that our world, and perhaps the whole universe, had passed from the control of known gods or powers to gods or powers that were unknown. And then Nyarlathotep came out of Egypt. No one could say who he was, but he was of ancient native blood. and looked like a pharaoh. The fellahin fell on their knees when they saw him, though they could not explain why. He said that he had risen from the darkness of twenty-seven centuries and had heard tidings from places beyond this planet. Dark, slender, and sinister, Nyarlathotep had come to civilized lands constantly buying strange instruments of glass and metal and assembling them into still stranger instruments. He talked much of science—of electricity and psychology—and demonstrated powers that left those who saw him speechless and by which his fame grew immeasurably. People advised one another to see Nyarlathotep and trembled...
Howard F. Lovecraft "Nyarlathotep"
Nyarlathotep... The creeping chaos... I am the last... I will speak to the listening void...

[deathtiny]

and quite a scenario...
The Bidenites pumped Ukraine up to the point of "bursting any minute" with money and weapons, they got the EU going, and the shop didn't budge...
Trump has a kind of "it's not me, it's all them", and the opportunity to leave the situation alone for a year... and then "either the sultan, or the donkey, or Nasreddin", i.e., maybe it will somehow form itself, and the responsibility is on the "predecessors who did not allow a successful deal to be resolved in 1 day")

[Motorist]

Quote: parusnik

After January 25, 2025, we'll see what old man Benamouki decides

Vladimir Semenovich's birthday. Old man Benamouki loves Vysotsky? Why should he decide anything after this day? And who is Benamouki anyway?

[turembo]

Transnistria is currently still a lever of pressure on us; if Moldova solves this problem with the help of others, it will only be another political defeat for us, yes, there will be concern, and threats of a harsh response and everything, but our opponents will also lose their leverage over us.

[Alex 1970]

Moldova and Kyiv can easily sniff each other about this. Moreover, Kyiv really needs a new reason for "victory". And it is practically impossible to provide support without our taking Odessa. And you can see for yourself what we have to do with taking it, the Kursk region is an example.

[deathtiny]

in the current situation, this (the loss of Transnistria) is no longer a significant "pro%b" for us...
simply writing off bankrupt toxic assets (Syria, Transnistria)...
Once upon a time these were important outposts for Russia, control points. They served their purpose.
There is no point in wasting energy, resources and the lives of soldiers now.
the very most we can do is organize (perhaps by agreement with the Moldovans and Romanians) a demonstrative television picture of the heroic evacuation of our peacekeepers from there.
Well, that's enough.

[realing]

organize (perhaps even by agreement with the Moldovans and Romanians) a demonstrative television picture of the heroic evacuation of our peacekeepers from there.

I'll let you in on a secret, they're almost all local, just with Russian citizenship.

[UAZ 452]

That's right. If tomorrow they announce the withdrawal of personnel from bases in Armenia and Transnistria to Russia, it will "suddenly" turn out that only senior officers actually arrived in the Russian Federation (and not all of them). And the rank and file submitted reports of dismissal, and if they refused to sign them, they simply went home. Fortunately, almost everyone has a local passport.

[jdiver]

And then we'll write off the toxic Russian regions that came under attack - they've done their job, and so on. After all, the process is the same - the enemy has gnawed off the distant approaches, is already gnawing at the nearby ones and the body of the country itself, and our media are saying that these are all toxic assets, there's no point in worrying, everything is going according to plan. Sleep well. We'll go far on this course, I almost wrote Kursk.

[UAZ 452]

Or better yet, as it is now - we have not been able to liberate the Kursk region for almost six months, but we are present in Syria, Armenia, Transnistria, etc.? It is wonderful when a country can be strong everywhere, but this is not about today's Russia, and it is time to learn to set priorities. Otherwise, the option you describe will become inevitable.

[jdiver]

Oh, my comment was deleted. What concern for the audience's peace of mind. I won't repeat what was deleted again. I'll say it briefly, with the priorities you propose, we will very soon be left without the current country. Just as we very quickly were left without the USSR, thanks to the joint efforts of those who betrayed it and those who explained to the people that everything was going according to plan. The main thing is that no one makes noise. Everything is calm in Baghdad. Well, or not in Baghdad anymore... it's already all over there, in Damascus. No, everything is already over in Damascus too... Then everything is calm in Moscow, that's it. That's right. Everything is calm in Moscow, let's not get nervous.

[UAZ 452]

The USSR collapsed not least because its foreign policy ambitions greatly exceeded the capabilities of the country's economy. They helped the Lumumbas and other Timbuktu, and as a result they overextended themselves. They began to leave their foreign bases only after everything had fallen apart inside the country, and not the other way around. And now we risk repeating that.

[jdiver]

And this is the result of internal problems that had to be solved in a timely manner. And the surrendered external contours are absorbed by the enemy. These are lost markets, this is the mobilization potential that the enemy now has, this is the flight time of missiles in the end. The situation has deteriorated catastrophically. There are fewer of us and more of them. In people, territories, technologies. Where on this path of decreasing us and increasing "them" in all parameters is the way out for us? At least in the internal transformation of which there is no sign at all yet. And if we can somehow suddenly change the basic things of our society and state, we will be forced to increase our presence "outside" and push enemies away from the core - our country. Otherwise, we simply will not exist. And where is the benefit in this scenario of surrendering allies and cocooning the remnants of life in the core? There is no such benefit here. We must not call for curtailing the presence, but for transforming the ideology, economy, and so on of the country, which should have been done not even the day before yesterday. But for some calls you can go very far because everything is fine beautiful marquise. And also so the organism dies in the cold - giving death to limbs and keeping warmth in the area of ​​internal organs to the very end in the hope that something will change. but the body is no longer able to move live and resist. The body must be warmed up and saved, and not rejoice that frostbite is already going on legs and arms but the heart is still somehow contracting.

[alexoff]

Quote from jdiver

And then we'll write off the toxic Russian regions that came under attack.

Well, in 1991 they wrote off a bunch of subsidized regions, I think many of our top brass wouldn't mind transferring all sorts of Chita regions and Khakassia to someone else, because they don't bring in any profit and they spoil the statistics

[jdiver]

Well, it seems like Norilsk Nickel is being transferred to China. Also probably out of great concern for the country and the people. The priorities have finally been set correctly.

[UAZ 452]

It looks like that. Someone has set priorities exactly like this: to hold on to Syria, Transnistria and the rest with all their teeth until the very end, and Norilsk Nickel and other factories - they can go, let them go with God... Business values ​​peace and security more than "action" and the pursuit of imperial greatness.

[jdiver]

I have a strong suspicion that this shameful state in which the situation is where we held out to the last is the result of those priorities according to which the rare surviving Soviet strategic productions are being rolled up and dragged out of the territory of our country. When you are surrounded by predators and are saving yourself on the last tree in the forest, from which branches are breaking off and you yourself have already sold and sawed up part of this tree and instead of taking care of it you preferred to walk on the sawed up tree somewhere far away, then the thought arises: how did it happen that the entire forest of industrial enterprises, scientific institutes, educational institutions that has now been turned into stumps? And the proposal to saw off and sell the lower branches of the last tree to the enemy in order to save it looks like a step (possibly one of the last) in exactly the same direction in which such a situation came to our present

[kor1vet1974]

"!They made a daisy here: I remember, I don’t remember…" (c)

[Idle_piston]

With the Russian leadership's policy of "let's chew on the snot and it will go away on its own," I wouldn't be surprised by worst-case scenarios not only in Transnistria.

[deathtiny]

in the current situation, this (the loss of Transnistria) is no longer a significant "pro%b" for us...
simply writing off bankrupt toxic assets (Syria, Transnistria)...
Once upon a time these were important outposts for Russia, control points. They served their purpose.
There is no point in wasting energy, resources and the lives of soldiers now.
the very most we can do is organize (perhaps by agreement with the Moldovans and Romanians) a demonstrative television picture of the heroic evacuation of our peacekeepers from there.
Well, that's enough.

oh, and also blow up the legendary "weapons depots" for the last time, no one got the shop...

Of course, the "svidomye" will squeal about "Russia is everything", but this will not have any effect on the main field of the SVO, and we are already immune to image injections.

[nikolaevskiy78]

oh, and also blow up the legendary "weapons depots" for the last time, no one got the shop...

Is it really still alive there? It seems to be underground, but who inspects all of this and checks for "operability"? And how?

[deathtiny]

I don't know... from the outside - these are "Schrödinger's warehouses" - don't look inside yet, they are simultaneously full and empty, with both working ammunition and expired rust... )

[Aleprok]

The most unclear thing is how will the capture of Transnistria help Moldova solve its gas problem? Maybe it's just a pretext? Do we need our arsenal? But then it will have to be blown up anyway

[deathtiny]

gas - no way. But to remove the barrier to integration into NATO-EU - absolutely possible ("without territorial conflicts").
because now, in order to launch the formal process, it would be necessary to abandon the PMR...

[realing]

The most incomprehensible thing is how will the seizure of Transnistria help Moldova solve its gas problem?

Moldova would solve not the gas problem, but the energy problem, the majority of electricity is generated by the MGRES in Dnestrovsk, PMR

[Jacques sekavar]

Moldova is the same as Romania, they speak the same language and are much closer than Russians and Ukrainians.
The question is who will get the PMR - Ukraine or Romania, because there are practically no Moldovans there

[realing]

because there are practically no Moldovans there

Half of Transnistria speaks Moldovan, especially villages and cities, with the exception of Tiraspol/Bender

[AdAstra]

Yes, easily.""""""

[odometer]

Ukraine also wanted to attack the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, they managed to forestall it... Literally at the last seconds... So why drag it out... "Lyapi, what's already there..."

[realing]

As a person who lived in the PMR for 18 years, I can say that the PMR army is a laughing matter, and nothing more. At the first rumor of mobilization, Transnistria will be emptied (which is what happened after the explosion in the MGB), and the rest will raise their hands and surrender, but what is even funnier is that Moldova does not really have the strength to suppress even this misunderstanding, and the population is clearly categorically against any military action.

[Private Rifleman]

As someone who lives here now, I don't see the point in turning my cities and villages into ruins, there is no chance to fight back, Russia won't help, so why these deaths, so that they will be praised in the comments, they were marinated for thirty years and a generation grew up that is no longer taken in by the fairy tales that Russia will come

[Karelian]

These are not Mandova's wishes, she is voicing NATO decisions

[K-50]

And to agree with Kiev to attack from the Odessa region - for that you need to pay... And how will Chisinau pay? They don't have the money to turn on the lights in government buildings."

The possible price will be an arsenal containing tens of thousands of tons of ammunition, which the Ukrainian Wehrmacht so badly needs.
Well, they are always happy to stick an “extra” needle under Russia’s skin.

[Jager]

Here's the question: what's the point of shells, the newest of which is 40 years old?

[your1970]

Quote: K-50

And to agree with Kiev to attack from the Odessa region - for that you need to pay... And how will Chisinau pay? They don't have the money to turn on the lights in government buildings."

The possible price will be an arsenal containing tens of thousands of tons of ammunition, which the Ukrainian Wehrmacht so badly needs.
Well, they are always happy to stick an “extra” needle under Russia’s skin.

There may be shells there, there may not be shells there...
No one can say for sure.
The expiration dates have clearly expired.
Some amount was probably disposed of.
In general, this is a daisy, not a warehouse - only guessing on them

[Private Rifleman]

The warehouses are full of shells and missiles for MLRS, tens of thousands of automatic and machine guns, millions of rounds of ammunition and all in very good condition, mines, grenades, almost everything is in hangars underground where the temperature and humidity preserve the property well, I myself served there for a term

[your1970]

Quote: Private shooter

The warehouses are full of shells and missiles for MLRS, tens of thousands of automatic and machine guns, millions of rounds of ammunition and all in very good condition, mines, grenades, almost everything is in hangars underground where the temperature and humidity preserve the property well, I myself served there for a term

You served in the USSR for a while.
Since then:
1) at least 34 years have passed
2) the warehouses were not refreshed - the freshest there is from 1990 at the most
3) weapons were sold from there
4) storage conditions there were not maintained with the same strictness as in the USSR.

[AC130 Gunship]

The region is not recognized by anyone at all. It's like if the "Nizhneye Bukhalovo" district decides to separate from the "Velikoye Bukhalovo" urban settlement

[Vik ganz]

That's how we always are. When Israel needs it, it doesn't give a damn about international treaties. It needs it, it will enter a "foreign" country, it needs it, it will bomb. And not a single bastard in the world will say that they don't have the right.
The Americans need it - they will enter Panama and come up with a pretext to "appropriate" the Panama Canal.
We can't.

[Vik ganz]

I read and am amazed. They have already surrendered Transnistria, and are preparing to surrender the Chita region and Khakassia.
Shameful.

[Alex013]

It's interesting about electricity. Since April 2017, Moldova has stopped purchasing electricity from the PMR and has started buying it from Ukraine, at a price lower than on the domestic Ukrainian market. And when they started to demolish the energy structure in Ukraine, they naturally switched to Romania. The PMR, squeezed on both sides by unfriendly countries, will suffer more from the shutdown of the GRES.

[boni592807]

Will Moldova seize Transnistria?

This is a philosophical question.

Or "and will the Russian Federation seize a vessel near the territory of the Russian Federation using the Priratsky "mugging" method!? What already!?
Or How long will "hardworking multi-skilled moped ditch diggers" and other representatives of them be a nightmare in the Russian Federation? зand the money of indigenous peoples - taxpayers not only of citizens and spectators of Crocuses. to apply Khokhloma already to representatives of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. but also to destroy people of the level of chief designers and commanders of the branches of the armed forces!?
That's when those who should answer... Then it will become clear what the former "fruit and berry" republic of the USSR can or cannot do...