Military Review

Is China's naval blockade in case of war realistic: opinions

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The British Journal of Strategic Studies published an article by an American researcher Shona Mirsky (Sean Mirski) on the US capabilities to implement China’s naval blockade in the event of war. Mirski considers the blockade as the best, under certain scenarios of military conflict, a variant of hostilities against the PRC, which allows destroying Chinese economic potential and forcing the Chinese to admit defeat. The possibilities of the PRC to counteract such an American strategy are regarded by Mirsky as modest. China does not have the forces to break the American blockade away from its shores. Mirsky's work is important because it allows us to better understand Russia's colossal significance for the unfolding US-China confrontation. The transition of Russia to the camp of the allies of the United States will, in fact, mean that this confrontation will end with the defeat of China, and not having time to begin. At the same time, the firm support of China by Russia leads to a sharp narrowing of the US military and economic leverage over pressure on China. Accordingly, Russian-Chinese transport and energy projects should also be considered from the point of view of their strategic importance for the two countries, and not from narrow economic positions. The study of the use of nuclear submarines to damage the Chinese economy is also of great importance for Russia from the point of view of ensuring its security in the Far East. Not having, in principle, an opportunity to achieve parity with China in the field of land and ground forces in the Far East, Russia retains a powerful nuclear submarine fleet. Given the dependence of the PRC on maritime trade and the difficulties in providing reliable PLO in the seas adjacent to China, this fleet remains the only effective non-nuclear instrument of military deterrence of China available to Russia. In light of this, the decisions of the Russian leadership on the preservation and development of a nuclear submarine base in Kamchatka, significant investments in the nuclear submarine fleet and plans to deploy new types of submarines in the Far East should be considered absolutely correct and extremely important.

Is China's naval blockade in case of war realistic: opinions

IA REX: How realistic is the concept of Sean Mirsky regarding the implementation of China’s naval blockade in the event of war?

Grigory Trofimchuk, Head of the Political Consulting Department of the Russian-Asian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs:

The creation of one of the three pairs, geopolitical arcs - RF-PRC, PRC-USA, USA-RF - is able to decide the fate of humanity for a century to come. But the big question is whether one of them will be chosen.

It seems that only one Washington, at least to some extent, is thinking about the issue of the geopolitical picture of the future world, and Moscow and Beijing are stupidly preparing for a possible war, and, not understanding who is with whom. Moscow and Beijing, with the announced strategic partnership between them, do not go further than the high declarations, preferring to remember how good it was before and how good it is now. And despite the fact that the West has already deprived them of a number of strategic bases - in North Africa, in the Middle East, already practically in South America (after the death of Chávez) and other places.

In the case of the fall of Iran, the Chinese energy menu, the most dense in the world, will change dramatically, towards the strictest diet. Perhaps only then will a more substantive dialogue between China and Russia begin. Not only by the level of prices for raw materials and payment schedules, but also by more momentous issues. Most likely, at this time it will be too late for both capitals to do something.

Perhaps something will change with the election of the new Chairman of the PRC Xi Jinpingwhich sounds clear and simple things. Such intelligibility and the presence of simple human emotions inspires optimism. Otherwise, Russia and China will continue to send joint protest papers to the UN over the destruction of the next country by the West, which was a partner for both Moscow and Beijing, each time more and more afraid to roll out a concrete, physical protest. It’s like a husband and wife: he didn’t put it on the spot right away, on the very first day of marriage, then suffer life until tragedy happens, until it hits you in a dream with a knife. Therefore, very soon, even a simple paper protest of the two countries against Washington will seem to them impermissible, inexcusable audacity.

Washington - unlike Moscow and Beijing - financially invested in Russian-Chinese issues, trying to push, dissolve and dismember Russians and Chinese as much as possible: through polls, through stirring mistrust of the population of the Far East to the Chinese invaders, "who bought everything here." To counteract these information processes, we need money, we need ideas, we need carriers of these ideas, but Moscow and Beijing seem to be ready to think about anything, but not about that. There is no money for this - and this is with the existing raw material and financial shaft, which continually flows over the Russian-Chinese border in both directions.

At the same time, Russia and China, it seems, cannot understand what is more frightening for them: to declare to the West that they remove their hands from Syria and Iran, or to openly announce their bilateral bloc.

The hypothetical Russia-China bloc will remove almost all the questions, but for this, Russia will have to give China preferential raw materials, introduce China into its strategic projects, such as the Arctic, move joint space. And in order to guarantee the removal of the threat to such a bloc from the side of the Pacific Ocean monopolized by America, it is necessary to take the brothers Vietnam and North Korea, then the entire west coast of Asia will be covered completely, up to a millimeter.

At the same time, not only Russia alone, but China will also be forced to seriously invest in these two “subsidiary” economies - the Vietnamese and North Korean. And this is still possible in principle, after all, both Vietnam and the DPRK are people's states. They have not yet disowned Russia, which, it seems, slightly avoids its friends with a socialist “flavor”, but almost openly scoffs at the DPRK, going completely in the United States.

If the United States reliably opposes China to Vietnam (and such plans exist) through real money, loans, investments, technology and, most importantly, through empty promises, then in this “red” Pacific coast (“red” is not because of communism, but simply beloved colors of these peoples) a hole will be punched that you can’t shut up with any money. No Russian and Chinese surface and underwater fleet.

Therefore, the creation of the “Red Coast” is a real, theoretically achievable project. And in this case, it is no longer the United States that will block China from the sea, but China will build (and at the same time, the entire pro-Russian Eurasia) the Great Wall-2, only this time not from the north, but from the west. And not land, and sea. Nobody will pester this block with such vulgar questions as belonging to the South Kuriles or Diaoyu. Without such a wall, Russia in the foreseeable future will be locked up in the Sea of ​​Okhotsk, and China in the East and South China.

But we must start with the "small". For example, a fundamental change in the attitude of the Russian population to the Chinese. In practice, this is an even more difficult task than the construction of the Great Wall, as Russian organizations that are trying to intensify the dialogue with the Chinese are subject to noticeable obstruction in Russia: how is that? What do you want to sell us to the Chinese?

The main problem at the moment is that Russia and China are still in the project, while the United States has long been in working drawings and existing layouts. Washington knows what it wants, and no longer hides it. Obama's boycott of the APEC summit in Vladivostok; the White House conducting a conditional line in the East China and South China Seas, for which it does not intend to let the PRC; hints towards Moscow that its zone of responsibility in the vast Asia-Pacific region is, at best, China and the DPRK; the demonstrative non-appearance of the US delegation to the Asian Inter-Parliamentary Summit, where Matvienko I had to justify myself to those who had gathered about this — all these are points of the same program.

Splitting theses have already been entered into the information field of the world: 1) “if China wins the war between Russia and China, then Washington will side with China”; 2) “if Russia wins the war between the Russian Federation and the PRC, then Washington will side with Russia.” Therefore, it is already clear that nuclear submarines of Russia and China, with the unexpectedly military-political scenario initiated by the United States, will be absolutely useless, as all nuclear weapons turned out to be useless. weapon Moscow with the collapse of the USSR.

The layout for the future is very simple. If the United States undermines Russia, China will definitely not survive - all the more so without two such oil and gas barrels as Iran and the Russian Federation. If the United States undermines China, Russia, as they say, will not survive for three days, since they will immediately speak to it in a different way, in a different language, instantly throwing it out of the G8, returning to the usual G7 format. But today it seems that neither Moscow nor Beijing are noticing these disastrous sign trends, completely burying themselves in the economy, in their calculators, trying to earn as much as possible from each other.

Also, one of the main questions remains: will Russia decide to create a true Eurasia, from the White Sea to the Yellow Sea, which, by the way, China itself offers it unobtrusively.

Yuriy Yuryevpolitical constructor:

According to some sources, this is not only a theoretical study, because some Israelis invest in "islands" in Asia, suitable as jumping points aviation, and as naval bases and as bases of "rebels" or "pirates," according to the situation. Indeed, China can be blocked by sea, because it is by sea that the main energy resources come to it. And here - the role of Iran, Pakistan and Russia as suppliers and transit countries of resources for China really grows. And ideally, Russia can open the northern sea route from China to Europe, shorter than the existing southern routes.

But Russia is no less vulnerable than China. Radicals can cut the Trans-Siberian Railway, and cut the main lines of communication between Russia and its own east. As jointly, in the case of joint jihad, and "simple" terrorism. And the precedent of this was already when the railway communication of Russia with the ex-republics of the USSR, and now with the countries of the Caucasus, almost paralyzed Ichkeria, which increased their separatism and alienation from Russia. Perhaps for this reason, threats are reported in Russia itself, and the actual "Eurasianism", which is now politically engaged in Russia, is not really focusing on countries where there are many Russians, such as Ukraine, Latvia and Lithuania. But Russia can be cut open by internal intrigues, for example, taking control of the leadership of Russian Railways and other means of communication to show Russia what happened at the time of Tsushima - poor passage of forces and reserves to the Far East theater. It is possible that there are already symptoms of “buying up lobbyists” in Russia itself, which will clouded and sabotage Russia's ability to supply not only China, but also itself, with increasing threats.

As for the clashes of Russia and China with their heads and the already long-term intriguing game of the United States to set off China and Russia, Zbigniew Brzezinski is not very successful at this game, and Sean Mirsky doesn’t work too well. They remember too well both in Russia and in China, at what cost wars, and especially civil ones. But in the USA they probably forgot that the “western” is born on its own, like an infection, and if someone fires out at rallies in the USA, then this can generate a chain reaction to the whole country, since there are a lot of weapons there. Al-Qaeda somehow missed the chance to shoot at the crowd of Yankee demonstrators, although such a threat is even worse than the blockade of the state. So, the Chinese, or the Russians or someone else, whom the US intends to block, may cause something worse in the US than a blockade from the outside. Therefore, it is better for the United States to continue to sell high-tech and not to block anyone, especially for high-tech producers, even if those who are generous with the mind of Mirsky offer the United States some benefit from violence.

Leonid Savin, political scientist, editor-in-chief of the information and analytical publication Geopolitics:

In addition to this study and the like, for example, the concept of "war from the sea", which involves a military operation against China, there are also other versions, where, on the contrary, China will inflict a hypothetical defeat on the United States and its allies in the region. Such an analyst was conducted primarily in respect of Taiwan and the simulation games showed that the United States and its ally will shamefully lose. There are other scenarios, for example, in China’s invasion of the Far East. In this case, the United States is helping Russia fight the aggressor. But here, too, theirs (and us) will fail. So there are quite a few options for the future. In terms of energy supply for China, the Strait of Malacca is important primarily, and the South China Sea is a kind of HartSea. The question of the expediency of submarines, as well as the development of the Russian Navy, of course, no one doubts. At the same time, it is necessary to think deeper - underwater robots, both offensive and deterrent, should also be developed and put into service. And Mirski’s research can be interpreted in the light of the recent words of the Pentagon’s head that the European missile defense budget will be cut down in order to strengthen the US Pacific flank. Officially, North Korea is named as the cause, but most likely China is meant, which scares the United States with its growing power.

Michael dorfman, writer (New York, USA):

The blockade of the coast of China, along with nuclear bombardments, was proposed by General MacArthur in the 1950s, thinking in this way to win the war in Korea. Then MacArthur was fired for professional unsuitability and lack of subordination. No one will lay off the mundane, because the neoconservative Tink tank, where he works, is designed to work out just such scenarios. The blockade of the PRC, first of all, means an economic catastrophe for the United States itself, whose economy today depends on Chinese exports, imports and Chinese loans. If we are talking about the Cold War, then where it is more realistic to simply cut off food supplies to China. The Chinese have nothing to replace the supply of grain and soybeans from the United States. The United States also has enough leverage to impose an embargo on the supply of grain and oil from Latin America. The USA has already played such games against Japan at the end of 1930, and is still living here with the mentality of victory in World War II.

Andrey Davydov, journalist:

Without going into the scenarios of possible hostilities, you can make for yourself the main conclusion. In the foreseeable future, China, with the sound mind of its leadership, does not carry a military threat to the territory of Russia. For it means war on two fronts. Not in the sense that the United States would suddenly become an ally of the Russian Federation, but the sense that, more than aspirations of starting a war with Russia, China would have set itself up under the American blow — at least under the same blockade. It may be objected that China could be in alliance with America ... Such an alliance for China is no better than a defeat in the war with America. Because regardless of the course of the war with Russia, China will put in a subordinate position. Hard subordinate.

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http://www.iarex.ru/fd-non/34838.html
42 comments
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  1. Pashhenko Nikolay
    Pashhenko Nikolay 20 March 2013 07: 38
    +3
    Strange hypothetical reasoning. And the option that China in such a situation will launch missiles with nuclear warheads toward the United States is not considered?
    1. igor.borov775
      igor.borov775 20 March 2013 08: 22
      +2
      Hello everyone, this fairy tale is not familiar to you, The whole Yankee has been trying to push this whole scenario with only minor changes for half a century, Everything is too familiar
      1. Captain Vrungel
        Captain Vrungel 20 March 2013 08: 46
        +2
        There is a small "BUT". Are the people and personnel of the US Army ready for a global war? To fight with aborigines and tribes is one thing (and it bites painfully), with a billion-dollar state, having on its territory a multimillion-dollar fifth column that can instantly turn the situation in the United States into uncontrollable chaos with lethal consequences? It’s not realistic and not profitable. It's like two dogs furiously barking at each other over the fence, and then scatter to their booths.
        1. Gluxar_
          Gluxar_ 20 March 2013 23: 53
          0
          Quote: Captain Vrungel
          There is a small "BUT". Are the people and personnel of the US Army ready for a global war? To fight with aborigines and tribes is one thing (and it bites painfully), with a billion-dollar state, having on its territory a multimillion-dollar fifth column that can instantly turn the situation in the United States into uncontrollable chaos with lethal consequences? It’s not realistic and not profitable. It's like two dogs furiously barking at each other over the fence, and then scatter to their booths.

          All right. Moreover, you need to look more rationally at the strategic picture. Neither Russia, nor China, nor India or Brazil needs a war. Only the Anglo-Saxons constantly shout about the war, they are barbarians and simply do not know anything else or can do, except how to kill and rob. Their system collapsed in less than 20 years of relatively peaceful life.
          All forces need to be concentrated on the internal development of our states, the reunification of peoples and an end to the division into our own and "churkov" is necessary. Lumps are Aglo-Saxons, they are enemies of all mankind. You need to be friends with China, but you shouldn't go too far. There will be no war if you do not wage provocations. it is good that China understands this and there will be no violent seizure of Taiwan. The only weak link is the DPRK. Only here can the United States begin to pick out a festering wound on the body of Asia. However, China can use this for its own purposes. Russia needs to get into this region very carefully, the best option is through cooperation on the development of the Far East. Russia needs to resolve the issue with the Eurasian Union and, most importantly, with Ukraine. Also, tighten up the "baltic" and gain a foothold in central Europe. and after that work hard at home, at least 50-100 years. Population, economy, ecology. Getting involved in a showdown of 1,5 billion Asians and 1 billion "gold" with a population of about 300 million does not make sense.
          This does not mean that we must leave the region, on the contrary. But you don’t need to get into trouble.
    2. Guun
      Guun 20 March 2013 12: 05
      0
      They are so used to beating the weak to the USA, and they don’t consider what the Russian-Chinese nuclear weapons will fly to their aug from the Russian-Chinese nuclear weapons - after all, they are used to bombing from afar without thinking that an average and strong opponent will give a rather crushing change, unlike a weak one.
    3. Geisenberg
      Geisenberg 20 March 2013 17: 45
      +1
      It is believed that weak ... it is also believed that the warheads will intercept ... also that there are no such weapons in Kiat ... etc etc. In general, yes - not considered.
    4. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 20 March 2013 23: 28
      0
      Quote: Pashhenko Nikolay
      Strange hypothetical reasoning. And the option that China in such a situation will launch missiles with nuclear warheads toward the United States is not considered?

      But what about the missile defense? In the USA, they believe in it from here and similar scenarios. No article, has been published more than once. It was clear, this is the first comment of a "specialist" ... Russia is a weak barn, without China it will not survive like the same. Doesn't take into account the fact that there is no longer any power in Europe. Wars in North Africa come not from the strength of the West, but from its complete impotence. War is the last thing, and if the West fired the first shot, then there is no sense in rushing for Russia and China. They are gaining strength and this is a fact.
      Regarding the scenarios themselves, Russia and China are too big to be friends. Together against the United States as a common threat, but no further. Russia has its own goals, we need Central Asia and restoration within historical borders, including with eastern Europe. Enormous internal work is needed for at least a century, or even more. Needs in the outside world are limited only by a temporary borrowing of technology; everything else is there.
      China has completely different tasks, somewhat similar but in a completely different direction. Russia does not need to get into this mess at all, just get benefits from both sides.
  2. fenix57
    fenix57 20 March 2013 07: 40
    +4
    There is one more TRIO- RF-INDIA- VIETNAM. But why is it for Russia now .. Although there probably is a strategic option ... It’s more dangerous from the side of Amers + Japan + South Korea ... hi
    1. Guun
      Guun 20 March 2013 11: 51
      0
      Quote: fenix57
      ... More dangerous from the side of amers + Japan + Yu. Korea

      So long ago they concluded this trio, and only for this reason Russia and the PRC are getting closer and closer to each other, because they are arranging both Bear and Dragon on all sides, forcing them to gain muscle.
    2. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 21 March 2013 00: 01
      0
      Quote: fenix57
      There is one more TRIO- RF-INDIA- VIETNAM. But why is it for Russia now .. Although there probably is a strategic option ... It’s more dangerous from the side of Amers + Japan + South Korea ...

      This trio is much more realistic and promising. Russia has no way out only to the Indian Ocean, in such a union this way out exists. Moreover, such an alliance is not opposed to China, although it holds it by the sleeve. The stability of such an alliance guarantees China, with its goodwill, secure access to African resources.
  3. Apollo
    Apollo 20 March 2013 07: 41
    +4
    Good morning everybody!!! hi

    the ratio of the armed forces of China and the United States in the Pacific Ocean.
    1. SergeyIV
      SergeyIV 20 March 2013 09: 11
      +4
      It is very interesting whether the entire US nuclear submarine fleet is located in the Pacific Ocean (as far as I know, "As of July 2007, the US Navy had 73 nuclear submarines, including: 14 Ohio type with ballistic missiles (BR) Trident 1/2 "(SSBN / SSBN), four with Tomahok cruise missiles (SSGN / SSGN), converted from the first SSBN of the same type, as well as 55 multipurpose (SSN / PLA) types" Los Angeles "(49), Seawulf (three) and Virginia (three) "
    2. hrych
      hrych 20 March 2013 20: 06
      +3
      Quite clearly, especially the "bottleneck" where tankers go near Singapore.
      1. Gluxar_
        Gluxar_ 21 March 2013 00: 16
        -1
        Quote: hrych
        Quite clearly, especially the "bottleneck" where tankers go near Singapore.

        However, there is one snag; in the Arabian Sea there are no such necks. And Pakistan has already transferred the port in Gwadar to China.
        Why do you think China is reacting so harshly to the rebels and the Dalai Lama? Just because the region of Tibet is strategically extremely important for China, it is its alternative to the "Malak neck". And the Chinese understand this very well and have been working in this direction for more than a decade. The same construction of a super-road mountain railroad to the "closed region" of Tibet is just the laying of the first branches of a new transport corridor. So don't think the Chinese are fools. At the time of the birth of the United States, China was already experiencing the 6th cycle of growth and decay of its civilization, and when even historians have forgotten about the United States, the traditional drawing on clay pots will not change much in China.
        1. hrych
          hrych 21 March 2013 20: 32
          +2
          All these cycles of withering and flowering are associated either with the Xiongnu, or with the Jurdjens, or with the Xiangbins, or with the Manjurs, which was the last emperor Pu Yi, and the indigenous Han tribe that gained independence in the 20th century and all these tsikls, they were untouchable slaves and could have a career to do only as eunuchs, he managed to do something so that there is nowhere else. The "wise" Chinese (I'm talking about the Han people, the Khitan tribe or the Chinese, they have nothing to do with the present-day Chinese only by geographical name) quarreled, well, they got horns with all their closest neighbors, including the USSR, and the most successful war is the war with the sparrows. I will keep quiet about the kulutorny revolution, then the "wise" little Den, sold his people as a cheap slave of power to Western corporations, as a reward the top party members have now become billionaires, and a billion has no pensions, free medicine and education, 370 million domestic migrant workers living in Beijing undergrounds, etc. Through Tibet, your oil will probably be transported in wineskins on mountain yaks, if a piece of iron can get somewhere, so on the other hand, it's a pity that the country is not in the know. There is no alternative to the sea supply of hydrocarbons, and there cannot be. more than 80%. The entire Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and especially the Hormuz one, is a bottleneck where US aircraft carriers swarm, and then the Indians, no less developing their fleet, incl. building an aircraft carrier in Russia and leasing a nuclear missile carrier, well, Brahmos to help them. China is doomed and dear to it there, because state capitalism is an even greater utopia for billions of slaves.
          1. Gluxar_
            Gluxar_ 21 March 2013 23: 23
            -1
            Well, the Chinese in their "slave history" will give the whole truly slavish and anti-human history of the West three millennia of a head start for humanism. But this is on your subjective historical conclusions, they have a very distant relation to reality. After all, even such banal "common human benefits" as toilet paper or a toothbrush came to us from China.
            The reality of today is that China has built a modern road in fact in the Himalayas, taking this into account, I think there are no problems to lay there and there will be no special oil pipeline. What matters is not even the current moment of the implementation of such plans, but their very presence, indicating the foresight of the leadership.
            The Strait of Hormuz is not a problem for China, it is a US problem. Iran will not block it from the Chinese, and the United States is not in a position. A pair of aircraft carriers does not do weather, but China got its first deep-sea port in this region. And this is only in 20 years of development, which will be difficult to imagine in 10. But given today's dynamics, I think Chinese control over this region will only increase. China will have access to Africa, from where it takes resources.
            It is this circumstance that makes the Americans howl and whine about the "Chinese threat", but very few people are fooled by their stories, even former satellites like Pakistan. This is already an indicator.
            1. hrych
              hrych 22 March 2013 16: 17
              +2
              About the hegemon to say "Howl and whine" by no means fits, because he is a hegemon, even though he is a bastard. Having built state capitalism, the CPC party members engaged in state imperialism, rushed to invest their green waste paper in Africa, but the veterans of colonialism have been sitting there for two hundred years. Libya and Mali are examples of how the Franks defend their positions. In Pakistan, the Americans generally do whatever they want, they want to kill Benya Ladan, they want to burn the peasants with drones, they want to change presidents. They will not leave Pakistan on good terms, because it is the only Muslim nuclear country, if you have to leave then they will leave ruins. About access to Africa - this is hypothetically and I beg you to take a map of Tibet with a mark of the heights of the peaks and plot a route, you will be pleasantly surprised that no transit other than bags of dung is simply impossible. There is also the profitability of the transit of goods, the most profitable is the pipeline, then the sea, then the railway, then the automobile, horse-drawn caravans, even in China, an anachronism. Those. by the ratio of costs and quantity of goods. A good example is when a Korean car goes by sea to Finland and customs in St. Petersburg, making a march that is not inferior to Vasco Da Gama's journey, and then ends up in the Urals with the buyer and it turns out to be more profitable than driving by railway directly to the Urals. Economics and nothing personal. And if you buy 90% of oil, and more than 80% from the Middle East by sea, then nothing will help.
              1. Gluxar_
                Gluxar_ 22 March 2013 19: 02
                -1
                The fact remains. The US has prostrated Africa and Pakistan, and Afghanistan will soon be surrendered. Whatever they do there, they constantly find themselves in a puddle. For the sake of killing a non-existent old man, they will tear down a nuclear country and give it into the hands of their main geopolitical competitors.
                Regarding transit, a railway was laid and a pipeline will be built. The fact is that the Chinese simply take and do what others consider impossible or unprofitable, the Chinese have their own strategy and they do not look back at all.
                The discussion is not important, but the real steps. I see the real steps taken by the Chinese leadership to create an alternative to sea delivery. I see steps to get rid of dependence on external suppliers; look at the growth of our own gas and oil production. I see the concrete policy of building a sea power with the main priority on the fleet, I see the introduction of new ships and the creation of new bases and ports.
                And these are all real concrete actions. What do I see from the USA? Demagonism and populism. Chatting, chatting, chatting. Scare, scare, scare. What made the USA real to block China from the sea? Besides what they already had? Have 3500 Marines deployed in Australia? Reassured local voters? They printed more papers and promised to distribute it to those who refuse to cooperate with China? What will the United States do when Taiwan voluntarily joins China?
    3. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 21 March 2013 00: 07
      -1
      Quote: Apollon
      Good morning everybody!!! the ratio of the armed forces of China and the United States in the Pacific Ocean.

      This is not the balance of power in the Pacific Ocean, this is the ratio of all US fleets with ships mothballed with the Chinese Navy, without taking into account the fact that China has a huge air force and many airfields off its coast. The real presence of US forces in this region is two AUG and several destroyers at bases. It is this situation that makes the Americans "transfer" their zone of attention to the Asia-Pacific region, and in fact an attempt to at least somehow reverse the tendency of their strength to fade. The United States simply does not know how to speak without a pistol in hand, but here they are naked and therefore begin to whine.
      1. hrych
        hrych 21 March 2013 20: 54
        +2
        Have you forgotten the fleet of the British, Australia, France, Spain and other NATO. Plus, the beautiful Japanese Navy, South Korea, Vietnam, we are building good ships. The extinction of US power in financial and economic hegemony, but not in military, due to such fools as China, who plowed a golden billion, and with the proceeds earned worthless American securities and greenery, the Americans built more than a dozen aircraft carrier groups. To become a hegemon, the United States organized two world wars in the twentieth century, were able to destroy the great USSR, in order to give way to some insignificance locked in the South China Sea. Twenty years ago, the Chinese were waiting for the death of Russia to take it without a fight, but it was necessary to build a fleet, Russia survived, and the Chinese lost time. Although they would start building a fleet 20 years ago, the Americans would then begin to solve the Chinese question. But Russia is now tidying up and updating its nuclear arsenals, but it will not fight against white America, but it is possible to share the defeated China with them.
        1. Gluxar_
          Gluxar_ 21 March 2013 23: 38
          -1
          British fleet? Australian? Are you talking about what rust troughs? They even sailed to Libya. Maybe Latvia will begin an invasion of the Middle Kingdom?

          You have very distant ideas about the functioning of the national economic complex of states. Just because of the presence of potential 11 AUGs, the United States goes bankrupt, and without money, these rusty boxes will not leave the home port. Already today, half of the aircraft carriers are not operational, the rest are breathing incense. Talking about the naval power of NATO, with the collapse of the US Navy is simply ridiculous. Not a single European will snoop into China, even in Afghanistan they are exclusively under pressure and are fishing off fishing rods. All NATO and half of the Arab League barely barely rolled out a little Libya.

          As for your further fantasies ... just ridiculous. "but there will be no war with white America" ​​what nonsense? What is white America? There are 2-3 blacks and Mexicans, a third of whites are mulattos. It is the same in Europe, where there are Islamic patrols in London and there are more Arabs in Paris than white Frenchmen. And everywhere there are pederasts, who are now giving children to eat.
          If you do not know, then there was no China that we are discussing today for another 20 years. It was he who grew up during these 20 years so that today he is building aircraft carriers, and not only sowing rice. The Chinese did not waste any time. They concentrated all the industrial capacities of the world, while stupid and greedy Americans, in their thirst for profit, beat their people and bankrupted all their factories. Now paw and kneel in front of the Chinese so that they do not throw off their "sort" green paper.
          And the problem is not with the Chinese who saved up 2 trillion dollars, but with the Americans who were greedy and gave so much paper in one hand. After all, the amount is ridiculous in international finances, but the entire international financial system of the dollar cannot digest such a sum of treasuries. And the Chinese, having collected treasuries by 2 trillion for several years, have not increased their portfolio, adding their gold reserves to other international instruments and gold.
          1. hrych
            hrych 22 March 2013 17: 02
            +2
            Well, apparently you are not aware that the British fleet is one of the three most powerful fleets in the world.
            According to military analysts, the fleet rating by indicators: number / quality, ability to solve combat missions, etc.:
            1) USA
            2) France
            3) United Kingdom
            4) India
            5) Russia
            6) Italy
            7) Spain
            8) China
            9) Turkey
            If we take into account the Russian nuclear submarine fleet, then Russia moves to second place, but oh well.
            Those. to defeat the Chinese Navy, one "rusty" British fleet is enough. Poor China barely bypassed the Turks, and everyone from 1st to 7th place, to put it mildly, are not cross-eyed friends, and he has no friends, there was one Polpot. And the main weakness of the Chinese naval commanders is the complete lack of combat experience, which apparently means nothing to you, but oh well.
            Also, as you said, "China is building aircraft carriers," I must say that it buys in Ukraine, like scrap metal, and finishes building, though for twenty years, but oh well again. About kneeling in front of China, I'll tell you the truth from the news. Former CPC leader Hujintao came to Barak and complained that China, holding assets in the securities of American companies, had lost $ 370 billion without doing anything (this loot can be used to build 100 aircraft carriers - for reference). To which Barack smiled a white-toothed smile from ear to ear and explained that the United States, as a state, is not responsible for private companies such as Goldman Sachs and Lemon Brothers, and in general it is not the US government but the FRS that prints greens. Obama smiled sweetly at a mild hint that the PRC would throw off the "toilet paper", but did not say anything. Possessing knowledge in economics, I understood that the main holder of the paper would suffer from a sharp dump of paper, and this is .... China is. Crumpled Hu went to Beijing to eat the grief of the white mice, which he loves very much. I apologize for the artistic tone in the description. And gold is, in general, like paper, one that has a price, like a metal, but during the global crisis it becomes the same dead asset.
            1. Gluxar_
              Gluxar_ 22 March 2013 18: 36
              -1
              You can see that you are not aware of what rating agencies are, and the Onalitegs that compose different lists. Well, okay, you’ll understand with experience.
              I prefer to talk about the capabilities of the fleet based on the real facts of its use. The Falklands have been around for a long time, but everyone remembers how Britain almost got crap when the enemy had "3-5 outdated aircraft". But that was a long time ago, and quite recently it was Libya, which showed the value of the entire NATO fleet, when even the created separate strike group was rendered unarmed and without ammunition. So there were some reserves, the crisis just knocked. At the moment, everything is much worse. Look at the specific steps to reduce the NATO fleet of all incoming states, the United States has half of the ships idle, and this is only after the first budget sequestration, there will be others. In Europe, things are even worse.
              Now about China, 20 years ago he did not have not only a fleet, but also plans for its construction. Today they have a former Soviet aircraft carrier and are already stationing their own. In the first series there will be up to seven ships, later not modified copies will be built, but their own heavy aircraft carriers. Is there at least one other NATO country that is going to build something like that?
              About the finance. Do you understand the essence of the matter? China subsidizes the US economy to buy its goods. China is buying up US assets and getting the technology it needs. The US owes to China, and not vice versa. And this debt is growing. The USA can really, like a presumptuous schoolboy, abandon its obligations, but then the USA will simply disappear. And the Chinese will just buy North America. The United States does not issue anything except its dollars, and refusing to pay debts they simply disappear.
              China is the largest holder of the American currency, but far from the only one. And if China stopped buying dollars since 2007, then the UK and other EU countries are now forced to invest in paper instead of China. And if China drops its 2 trillion, then it will really lose some part of this money, as well as all the rest. But only China can afford it. Since it has a positive trade balance, but the USA and the EU will die from such an act. While China is waiting, it is simply pursuing a policy of abandoning the dollar and it is already settling with the main suppliers of the raw materials it needs without the dollar. very little time will pass and he will strike, just the Chinese are not in a hurry and are waiting for the right moment. With the collapse of the US economy and military power, this moment is drawing closer.
              1. hrych
                hrych 22 March 2013 19: 12
                +2
                Britain almost got crap, but defeated the enemy, and the winner is not judged, and losses are inevitable. What is the data for Libya? Gaddafi sank at least one NATO ship? Without ammunition, as I understand it, the unscheduled consumption of Tamaghawks. But was it enough or what? Trippoli has not fallen? About the aircraft carriers under construction, I'm afraid China will not finish building them, the time has almost come, but it was necessary to think earlier. Plus problems with the planes, the engines themselves could not be made, and in the event of a mess, Russia will not sell. Don't be naive about the fact that someone will buy America. Having accumulated a bunch of greenery, the Chinese tried to get into strategic industries, but neither the United States, nor the EU, nor Russia is allowed there. Africa was the only one left, and they rushed there, but again ran into the weakness of the fleet against competitors and, most importantly, the lack of guarantees of deposits from the black presidents-cannibals, whom the Europeans change like gloves for themselves. In this game, the rules were written not by the Chinese, but by those who made it. Neither the US nor the EU will die, they will cut down on social services, they will eat less black caviar and no more. Unfortunately, China is not self-sufficient for it, especially in terms of food. The collapse of the United States will be long, please be patient, but who are the main consumers of Chinese Tavars, of course the EU and the USA. The American will become impoverished, the consumption will be reduced, but the Chinese who live off the service of this comrade will die of hunger, that's all the arithmetic. There was such a Roman Empire so it was falling apart for 500 years, many empires were born and died, and it kept falling apart and falling apart. And there is also such a saying "the last Chinese warning", you know its essence. And America and others like them take control of the regions, destroying one after another not the most frail states, brazenly seizing deposits, and you are all about the collapse and death of the United States. The Anglo-Saxon financial pyramid is collapsing, so not the Anglo-Saxons will suffer from this, but the Asians in the first place.
                1. Gluxar_
                  Gluxar_ 23 March 2013 03: 09
                  -1
                  Britain is no longer the same as all NATO. All the same, he got into one of the ships of Gaddafi. The rest moved away. They rolled Libya for almost 8 months with a full effort, they lost a bunch of specialists there. In general, a complete failure against a little bit of trained people. And this, with full military dominance on its shores, with a bunch of abandoned kamikaze Islamists who were not spared at all. Sirut was bored for 2 months, tamahawks and bombs were not enough.
                  In general, apart from the US fleet, there is really nothing in NATO. This is recognized by the Europeans themselves, analysts about the real state of affairs is full.
                  About China. China really has a fleet built not so long ago, but nevertheless it is the region’s strongest fleet, not counting the potential US fleet. Which is scattered around the world. Moreover, China has a fleet superior to the fleet of all other states in the region combined, not counting India.
                  The next argument is the Air Force. China has about 1200 fairly modern aircraft, many of which are capable of carrying anti-ship missiles.
                  In conclusion, China has at least 400 nuclear warheads and carriers capable of reaching any US city.
                  The United States has never fought with an adversary even 10 times weaker than China, so it will turn out to be.
                  About the finance. In Europe, not the belts are tightened, they’ve been sitting on hungry rations there for a decade now, take a trip. Everything is beautiful in advertising, in fact a dull sight of greedy and displeased people. In the United States, the same picture, so there is already on the verge of mass chaos, so the belts have not yet touched. China did experience food problems, but it solved this problem in the early 80s. Today, China is one of the main food suppliers in the world; more than a quarter of agricultural products are exported. China has orgom problems with the reduction of fertile soils and in the long run this may lead to hunger, however, today China is the world's largest producer of wheat and rice, as well as a dozen more crops. China exports up to 20% of manufactured products.
                2. Gluxar_
                  Gluxar_ 23 March 2013 03: 09
                  -2
                  As for finance, this is another incomprehensible opus. I don't even know what to comment on. I see you are just far from the elementary concepts of economics. Then I'll tell you in a simple way, without going into the topic. Well-being and the so-called "living standards" of the entire West are based only on the gangster's accumulation of capital. This accumulation did not take place through fraud, but through simple theft. Europe and the United States had and have colonies in the so-called developing countries, they have robbed and robbed them for centuries. For a few Americans to eat, dozens of Indians and Africans are starving. However, with the growth of the influence of the USSR and the rise of national liberation movements around the world, the system of direct plunder of resources and capital began to falter. Therefore, it was decided to create an international financial system based on the US dollar with a guarantee of the maturity of this currency. The essence of this system is simple, you give us resources, and we give you paper for which you can guaranteed to buy the product you need. The system spread violently and the United States always punished those who disagree. However, the system worked because Europe and the United States were indeed not only consumers, but also producers of basic goods at that time. However, after the collapse of the USSR and a little earlier, the production market began to change. The West considered that it destroyed its last enemy in the person of the USSR and the "golden age" began for them and they can do whatever they want, all the aces are up their sleeves. Therefore, they began to promote the post-industrial era, the era of information technology. When everything becomes virtual, the productions are taken out to the poor who serve the dogs. And the system worked, but it did not take into account the fact that the poor did not all come to terms with their slave role, and some had an appetite. So China is an example of awakened appetite. And if in the 80s it was fashionable for the "Chinese" to sew you sneakers. But today in 2013 it turned out that the main means of production were in the hands of these Chinese people, but more than that. China itself found and began to negotiate with resource suppliers. The system of the virtual economy stopped working, because its main principle is the separation of resources-production-finance-consumption. And China has pooled resources and production in its own hands, and also collected the largest gold reserves. And only consumption remained in the hands of the West. That is, the West can only produce paper that lubricated the gears of the market, but China does not need loans, it has its own money and not enough. There is no leverage on China, but there is a need for its goods. But buying goods is not for INTO, except for paper. The printing monopoly of which remains in the United States. However, does China need this paper? The answer is simple - no, it is not needed. He himself will print, but only a new currency, since all the elements of the system are in his hands today.
                  Here it is what the picture really is. Hence the panic in the United States.
                  It is very difficult to read your calculations, since for the most part this is just stupidity out of ignorance. If you have your own opinion on any issue, then of course you print it. But do not be lazy at first to at least slightly understand the issue, otherwise write some nonsense.
                  1. hrych
                    hrych 23 March 2013 17: 46
                    +2
                    You are just a stubborn type who does not listen to either statistical data or analytical calculations of experts (the nonsense that I retell), who, unlike assholes, possess information and authority. One mitigating circumstance is that you are a Chinese man with narrow eyes. So open them wider. Calling one of the most modern fleets in the world - the British, a rusty trough, you may have raised your self-esteem, but have shown yourself to be ignorant. Go on, love your Mao, I have nothing to talk about with you.
          2. hrych
            hrych 22 March 2013 17: 33
            +2
            In the United States, the population is more than 300 million, and of which 100 million are "colored" people, but 200 million are white, and the elite is naturally white, a swarthy prezik, rather a symbol, and even then, to distract people from the collapse of the economy. Well, the black president will soon have to deprive most blacks of unemployment benefits, as the only legal income, in general, this is his mission, and handcuffs and bags for colored corpses were prepared even under Bush. Whatever one may say after the fall of the USSR, when the duelists pointed pistols at each other's temples and a global war could burst out due to chance, now this is not the case. Russia cooperates with the United States in Afghanistan and Iraq. She agreed with the defeat of Libya, but reconciled Georgia. In Syria, we do not let them loose their girdles, they poked their heads on missile defense. Nevertheless, we provide transit of goods, incl. for American control of Pakistan. There is a normal interaction and if you sort things out just allies, but in words (for everyone), as it were, we swear. And when, in the face of problems with Senkaku, the Americans announced the transfer of the main forces there, only normal relations and the absence of confrontation with Russia allow them to do this. And they just put up with the Russian nuclear missile sword and that's it.
            1. Gluxar_
              Gluxar_ 22 March 2013 18: 51
              -2
              In the United States, only a few "Italian families" and "European Jews" remained white. What you call the white majority is actually mulatto or half-breed. The huge number of illegal immigrants is not taken into account, but the most important thing is that the so-called white population of the United States lives in the suburbs or provinces, they are also called rednecks there. The main centers of power of the United States, the root of the five coastal cities, the fiefdom of immigrants and people of color. The same president is just a flower, how about the cartoon hero "The Princess and the Frog".
              On the issue of cooperation with the USA. That is just ridiculous. USA nobody likes. The weak lie under them, the strong are forced to put up. If many people believe that the United States is our enemy, this does not mean that we cannot have common positions. Moreover, great civilizations will always cooperate, even in competition.
              But you need to look wider and in perspective. China has far more allies than the United States. The United States completely dragged Africa and its bloody interventions will not correct this situation. They lost in Pakistan, which is becoming an ally of China. They lose in the Middle East, and therefore began all these bloody wars.

              Russia is a separate player here and is following its own path. China and the United States are our competitors on some issues and allies on others. Just given the greedy bloody style of the United States, we will never really be friends with them, they always sell their allies as soon as it becomes profitable for them. This is not surprising given who created this country, criminals and slaves. It's just that the United States as an ally and one of the civilizations is too green, if China and Russia had contact for thousands of years before the creation of the states themselves, then no one takes the United States seriously as a "player for centuries". The little boy is a bully with a knife in his pocket, he buys small things from others. They endure it for a while, then get rid of such a misfortune.
              1. hrych
                hrych 22 March 2013 19: 35
                +2
                Oh, well, not the data, but the emotions. The main ruling diaspora in the USA are people of Irish descent, distinguished by clanism and racial intolerance. All US presidents had Irish roots. Even Obama has Irish roots, such an unspoken policy. Until now, neither in the CIA, nor in the FBI, nor in the Pentagon will you see black faces, if only janitors. There are exceptions, like General Powell, but it's such a rarity. Do not be lazy and take the statistics of non-ferrous people in the American army and you will understand how the percentage of officers begins to decrease, and then of senior officers. If you take the flight crew, then among them you will not see a single Negro at all.
                What a naive that the United States no one loves, and who loves whom. Who loves the Chinese? Who loves the Jews? Who loves Russians? You declare that the USA lost in Pakistan, and their troops are standing there. What are you talking about? Lose to B.Vostok to whom? And the World is not a children's sandbox to make friends. Firstly, the United States is not quite a kid; it is an overgrown clone of the Anglo-Saxon state and it is necessary to perceive it that way. Of course this is a monster, but a terrible one, capturing the best scientists, creating an excess military machine, etc. Whoever challenges him, a flag in his hands.
                1. Gluxar_
                  Gluxar_ 23 March 2013 03: 19
                  -2
                  You are right about discrimination in the United States, there really are no social elevators. And the Negro was and remains a Negro, he really does not break above the position of a middle manager. As well as Mexicans and Asians. However, the basis of the ruling class there are Jews of European origin. If this is a "white race" for you, then this is a sad world. The bulk of the remaining whites are rustic from small towns. and their position is even worse than that of the blacks. The racial division is as follows, less than a percentage of "white Jews" at the head of the largest banks and corporations, then a layer of performers from mulattoes and colored people, and below the white village which serves the needs of several large urban centers. And all this is smeared with colorful pop culture and media, a la Oprah. If you buy a ticket to New York, you will see colored America, and only if you get into the car and drive off into the outback, you will kill the white "one-story America". You will greatly change your perception of this country, as Hollywood advertising is far from reality.
                  Or just chat with our immigrants, ask them first hand.
                  1. hrych
                    hrych 23 March 2013 17: 30
                    +2
                    First of all, Jews in the USA are, of course, financiers, bankers and lawyers, there are many in Hollywood, etc., in general, a servant of the powerful in the world. The main bigwigs in the form of Texas oil industry workers, owners of SNNs, Boeings, Lockheed Martins, etc., have nothing to do with Jews. There are such Republicans, so there are no Jews at all. The true owners of America are Republicans. All Jews of America vote in unison for the Democrats. When you talk about small towns, you probably imagine our Vologda hinterland or the deep Dagestan auls. Small America has a very high standard of living, which you have not dreamed of. And in general, remove the excellent tone in communication and give arguments and facts. And such calculations like go to New York or ask migrants to say the least stupid.
  4. Papakiko
    Papakiko 20 March 2013 08: 11
    +7
    The United States also has sufficient leverage to impose an embargo on grain and oil supplies from Latin America. The United States already played such games against Japan in the late 1930s and still lives on in the mentality of victory in World War II.

    It is strange to read about the sea blockade of the continental state with an area of +9 596 960 XNUMX sq. km. Economic, political restrictions comparable to those imposed on the USSR in the 80s will not work, the whole "clarified gamer" is too tied to China.
    The Chinese have nothing to replace the supply of grain and soybeans from the United States
    Fortunately, this stupidity is at the very end, and then one could not read further.
    1. queen
      queen 20 March 2013 08: 23
      +4
      That's right. + And how do Americans care about their external debt, a large share of which falls on China.
  5. Apollo
    Apollo 20 March 2013 08: 29
    +2
    US and Japan prepare to repel Chinese attack on disputed Senkaku Islands

    TOKYO, 20 March. The US and Japanese defense ministries have decided to draw up a joint action plan to repel a hypothetical Chinese attack on Tokyo-controlled Senkaku (Diaoyudao) islands in the East China Sea, Japanese media reported.

    The program, in particular, provides for the development of an operation in the event of a Chinese landing there. It is also intended to identify specific ports, facilities, medical and transportation facilities, warehouses, etc. that the US military will use in the event of a conflict around Senkaku.

    The drafting of such a joint action plan is reportedly intended to be a deterrent against Beijing, online media reported.

    Specific work on a document will begin this week when General Shigeru Iwasaki, head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of Japan, visits the headquarters of the US armed forces in the Pacific in Hawaii.

    Over the past six months, Chinese patrol ships have been almost permanently in the waters of the disputed islands and from time to time make brief demonstration calls into coastal waters. Beijing emphasizes that the Chinese side intends to continue "regular patrolling of the territorial waters surrounding the Senkaku Islands."

    Recall that relations between Japan and China are complicated by the territorial problem. Disputes around the Senkaku archipelago (Diaoyu), which in Beijing is considered to be the original Chinese territory, have been ongoing since the 1970's.

    Read more: http://www.rosbalt.ru/main/2013/03/20/1107690.html
    1. Guun
      Guun 20 March 2013 12: 01
      -1
      The United States and NATO during the Korean War also thought that the Chinese army would not advance a kilometer, but in the end we all know that the Lyuli got the United States and NATO by the best of their ability and returned the entire occupied territory of North Korea. Such a story, like the Sea blockade of China, can be heard only in a madhouse, to see the United States has already become one big madhouse where, without exception, Napoleons and Julius Caesari.
      1. hrych
        hrych 20 March 2013 18: 16
        +3
        Well, rather, the Chinese hounded the Lyuli, the statistics of losses in which the Americans lost more than 50 thousand people, and the Chinese a million. The result of the war is zero. The only glorious page is our pilots, so there Kozhedub commanded.
  6. fenix57
    fenix57 20 March 2013 10: 16
    +1
    Quote: regin

    That's right. + And how do Americans care about their external debt, a large share of which falls on China.

    I don’t know about the debt to China .... what I found, I write: [media = http: //www.abird.ru/articles/USA_debt]
  7. fenix57
    fenix57 20 March 2013 12: 11
    +1
    Quote: Pashhenko Nikolay
    .And the option that China in this situation will launch missiles with nuclear warheads toward the United States is not considered?

    Not worth it, it seems generally any of: China-USA; DPRK-USA; - or vice versa. WHO WILL WIN ... ..... This "trash", ........ ENOUGH FOR ALL ... Maybe not start chatting about her ... bully
  8. amp
    amp 20 March 2013 14: 45
    0
    It is high time for Russia and China to create a military alliance.
    Immediately push the Yankees to their continent, from where they no longer crawl out.
  9. Geisenberg
    Geisenberg 20 March 2013 17: 46
    0
    In general, a good hint sounded here - to make something in the USA worse than war. It's high time.
  10. Chicot 1
    Chicot 1 20 March 2013 17: 48
    +2
    Personally, I associate the Celestial Empire not with a wise dragon, but with another character in Chinese mythology - the so-called. "the king of the monkeys" ... It is possible that such an opinion was influenced by the words attributed to the "great helmsman" Mao:
    - As long as European tigers are biting among themselves, a wise Chinese monkey will sit on a tree and wait in the wings.
    I do not presume to say for sure whether Mao said these words or not, but the comparison of China itself with the monkey king is very, very true. Moreover, the Chinese themselves behave accordingly to this character. Sassy, ​​shameless and rude. Especially regarding its closest neighbors ...

    So, I have little sympathy for the United States. But even less I sympathize with China. For various reasons, but primarily because of the excessive Chinese appetites for the territory of Russia and other states ... And I, you know, do not like it ...
    My opinion is that the sooner and the better the "great" China will be put in its place, demolished and rolled up, the better it will be (there should also be ordered a road to the ally of China - Pakistan!). It doesn't matter who does it. Even if it will be the United States with its allies ...
    Otherwise, sooner or later, we will have to do it ourselves ...
  11. vjatsergey
    vjatsergey 21 March 2013 20: 49
    +2
    we have a lot of Chinese, Tajiks, Uzbeks working. while there are fewer good guys, but as soon as there are more of them, they immediately turn into evil ones.
  12. vjatsergey
    vjatsergey 21 March 2013 20: 51
    +1
    but worse than all Caucasians - these understand only power