Rosstat recorded a drop in industrial production in Russia. The economy is being punished for further stagnation.

The volume of industrial production in the Russian Federation in February of the current year fell by 2,1% in annual terms after a decline in January by 0,8%, Prime reports with reference to the Federal State Statistics Service.

Thus, industrial production in the Russian Federation has been decreasing for two months in a row, having fallen by 1,5% over January-February. A similar phenomenon has been observed for the first time since the fall of 2008, and the dynamics continue to deteriorate. This is despite the fact that according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, the growth of industrial production in Russia following the results of 2013 should accelerate to 3,6% versus 2,6% in the past year.

In annual terms, mining in February fell by 0,2%, in January-February - by 1,7%. In the manufacturing sector, the decline in February was 0,1% in annual terms, in January-February a decrease of 0,2% was recorded. The production and distribution of electricity, gas and water in annual terms fell by 10% against the growth in January by 1,8%.

According to Alexander Morozov of HSBC, the bad February data may be due to underreporting of the calendar factor, since there was one day more in February 2012. He explained to Kommersant that there is no further slowdown in the industry, and acceleration is possible, therefore, “we must wait for the March data”.

According to the Center for Development estimates, eliminating only the government procurement factor would add 0,5 – 0,6% to the annual GDP growth rate. If we take into account the effect of the cost of capital and additional administrative barriers, we can easily talk about additional 1,5 – 2% annual GDP growth, which Russia is losing due to institutional constraints. However, the center's experts note that they are unlikely to disappear in the near future.

Therefore, the only realistic forecast for the coming months remains the continued presence of Russia in the zone of stagnation. The forecast of output of products and services by basic types of economic activity following the results of Q1 2013 of the year is + 0,6% with a decline in industrial production by 1,2%.

Comments

[Dragonmu]

With protracted crises and stagnation in geyrop, this is not at all surprising. That’s why we need to focus on growth points, the Brix -_- countries, the customs union, which the government is doing now.

[Dinver]

I live just in the city of greater industry, Cherepovets, we have a metallurgical plant of the ChMK with a bunch of related industries, two chemical plants, NITROGEN and Ammophos, a match factory, a furniture factory and many others. Chelyabinsk Metallurgical Plant is mainly aimed at Europe, produces rolled products for European cars, shipbuilding, household appliances, "after the crisis" (in fact, it started and continues) orders sharply decreased, warehouses are full of products to the eyeballs, a lot of people have been reduced and continue to be reduced. father works in a repair shop, his normal schedule is 5 days for 12 hours after 2 weekends, the last time the work is practically gone, almost all the crews have been cut to work, they go to work just like that instead of repairing huge rolling sections of 20 meters, they are engaged in boiling benches, fences and other "products". So that the crisis is over, they can lie a lot on TV, experts can draw up schedules, but ordinary people in industrial cities can see everything perfectly well without them.

[silver_roman]

it is sad. and that's it, because we work on uncle from behind a hill. their demand fell in our services, all-unemployment, we have to work for ourselves, but we also have no demand and there was not. such a feeling develops that we have reached the limit in the development of the state and there is simply nothing to develop!

[Dinver]

I’ll also add some Jewish mug to the plant, I don’t remember his names, he used to run a Coca-Cola plant, of course he had zero experience, he immediately broke a bunch of firewood (it would take several hours to describe all the jambs) and almost ruined the production and even if someone thought to remove it and it works now, people get the impression that he was assigned to ditch the plant ... Chelyabinsk Metallurgical Plant belongs to Severstal OJSC, the owner of this entire enterprise Mardashev (participant in the Bilderberg club), moved all offices and legal addresses to Yaroslavl and Moscow left most of the taxes there, as did AZOT and Ammophos. Another figure from Moscow bought up all the poultry farms; in the region, they didn’t pay for heating for several years and the salaries were delayed, after which the earned money declared bankrupt, and this evaporated a few billions, and we had to pay debts from the regional budget.
Now the Vologda Oblast from the donor’s region has almost slipped into a donation, they have reduced a bunch of various social projects, it has come to the point that the region cannot provide children with free milk in schools.

[morpex]

Quote: Dinver

I’ll also add some Jewish mug to the plant, I don’t remember his names, he used to run a Coca-Cola plant, of course he had zero experience, he immediately broke a bunch of firewood (it would take several hours to describe all the jambs) and almost ruined the production and even if someone thought to remove it and it works now, people get the impression that he was appointed to ruin the factory ...

Michael! Jews don’t make jambs! It’s all planned. If you don’t chase him in time, then the plant will have a lid.

[B_KypTke]

That entered the WTO ...

[silver_roman]

all the same, GDP is growing very weakly. and growing due to hydrocarbon production. But if you look at the picture in general, it is clear that cash injections into industry (both defense and economic, chemical, etc.) have occurred relatively recently, and these are long-term prospects. That is, we should see and experience their result on GDP growth in at least a couple of years. So for now I don’t see anything already very pessimistic. In general, it would be nice to get to 7 percent.

there is no niche. China is essential for the whole world, the West is high technology, we have only hydrocarbons and the defense industry (I'm talking about serious export, budget-forming), and this is not an indicator. Fortunately, the nuclear industry finds its customers, although there is strong opposition from the "American friends". They want General Electric to buy their nuclear reactors. By the way, they were standing on Fukushima. I think the conclusions are clear to everyone.

[Cpa]

GDP does not grow, but falls, the Government cannot ensure 5% growth annually. Aluminum will become more expensive, then demand will fall. Production rates also fall, so they began to develop the Arctic shelf. If the state doesn’t return industry back to 6 years, it will be necessary to tighten the belts.

[Zeus]

Why 6 years, not 3 or 10?

[Cpa]

Quote: Zeus

Why xnumx years

1. After 6, the Pentagon data network integration program will end. The military operations paradigm will change, the speed of command transmission will be reduced by an order of magnitude. Too clear superiority.
2. The real inflation rate in the Russian economy is 16-18%, which means that with the current 2% of GDP, our deposits and investments in the country will be worthless after 6 years.
3. In 2018, the Olympiad and championship construction projects will end, which will also affect the production of building materials. And our budget will be depleted.
4. After 6 years, in my opinion, the specialists of the Soviet industrial and design school will retire, and an aggravation of personnel shortages will begin.
5. After 6 years, Putin's presidential term will end
Somehow I think so.

[silver_roman]

we have a huge program for the development of the Far East. will finish the Olympus. construction, let begin to explore the land of Siberia. Nowadays, there is always something to build and where.

at the expense of specialists - yes. the problem is acute. but it is more a development of science. the rivet pattern will still work for a while. perhaps it will be possible to postpone and train new personnel. the main thing is to raise the RFP at enterprises, then the motivation will work there.

In 6 years, Putin’s first term will end and the second will begin. so in this regard everything is normal

but in general acute problems unmeasured!

[silver_roman]

"minus", no brains to explain why you put the minuses ???

[sashka]

Quote: Zeus

Why 6 years, not 3 or 10?

Because 2020 is "a great secret and magic figure." Not a single enemy (and a patriot too) has yet managed to understand its great and secret meaning. And only the "founder" is a wizard named Pu ..

[explorer]

It is foolish to draw conclusions for the two winter months. Everything begins to work really from the month of April. And I think the remnants of the USSR are still preserved: the distribution of money (January-March), the transfer (April-May) and then the beginning of work. If the Government plans to give more money for orders, then there will be growth by the end of the year, no - no and no court ...

[silver_roman]

given the development of aviation, both military and civilian, I think duralumin will be in demand. Soon the citizen will catch up.
And at the expense of production growth rates, I would not say that this is a minus. Serious deposits are being developed in Yamal. Just not yet put into operation. They will enter and production will grow. if over time they move away from the dependence of energy exports, then production will fall. This is natural.

[Tatarus]

Quote: B_KypTke

That entered the WTO ...

Well entered, so I’ll wash the sole and let's go further.

[Tatarus]

Wow. 5 minuses for a joke about the WTO ??? Is there a sense of humor? And I don’t see any explanations.

[explorer]

Someone believes that we have the potential to cover and no longer get out
but what will happen in reality will show time ...
From myself - I also first wanted to write something (joke) about the WTO
I’ll say now, there is an old joke:
Grandfather comes home:
- Mother, I, I joined the party !!!!
Grandma:
You’ll forever enter somewhere - first in the city, then in the party ..

[Zeus]

Khazin at the beginning of the year spoke about the beginning of the recession, and predicted the development of the recession about which Rostat is talking now. And he gave this process an extremely clear explanation.

[askort154]

It looks like we returned to the potassium of "promises" (although, especially from it.
were selected). The next, grandiose plans for the development of the country until 2020,,
provided for an annual increase in industrial production of 5-6%.
It is already obvious that if we do not take the "bull by the horns", then we are unlikely to get up
to his feet in full growth.

[alextar77]

The West stubbornly tried to bring Russia to its knees, but it continued to wallow

[120352]

Where to fall further? There is no industrial production in Russia. Everything is stolen!

[Khokhol-MSC]

Shaw? ... Again?!?

[sashka]

Fall to the bottom, ask for a shovel and continue to dig .. This is ours, Putin's ..

[Dwarfik]

Kind! And where is the production?

[pa_nik]

If the country's leadership found the strength to get out of the waiting mode of "heavenly mana" and started directly restoring production, agriculture and other segments of the economy, then - yes, perhaps the GDP would move up, and so - ..., it will also or it could be worse ... No one wants to deal with the real sector alone - the risks of "not living up to expectations" are too high, professionals, bye-bye .., only managers , it is easier to continue to "divide and cut". What to do with them !? Where were my pitchforks here ..?

[sashka]

For such words, last year I picked up the most cons ... And here again twenty-five. Well, there is no one to work in production for 10. There are no such "amateurs". "Great Pu" is saved only by oil. It’s easy to sell it, but to produce it. Who, what, and on what ??? Just arrived from the "military" plant. There are posters with a photo of a whole wall .. Modernization steps are called. So apart from new windows and plastered walls, there are no other "steps". The plant was put into operation in 000. The equipment is still pre-war ... And that's how it remained. Here are inflatable tanks and rockets and we will hardly do it. You don't know how to laugh or cry ... In NANO, the future of NANO is in steps ...

[d.gksueyjd]

Almost all comments confirm what is happening with the industry of the Russian Federation. Industry, as such, is no longer there, there is still production, but it will not be able to resist the industry of China for a long time. The government took the wrong course, which is confirmed simply by electricity, there was a low price — they spent without thinking, raised the price — began to spend optimally, raised it again, introduced the economy mode, raised it again, started stealing and reduced consumption, raised it again — they stop consuming and are looking for others capabilities. And so in all areas of production, it is impossible to peel 2 skins from one ram, now it is more profitable to buy abroad and sell in the Russian Federation.

[sashka]

But we entered the WTO .. ​​We must take care of our producers. Now we will show them .. I wonder what ?? Everything that was created by the blood and blood of their ancestors was turned into g ... and they still boast about it ..

[Bigriver]

Even in the fall there are pluses :)
This means that someone will have a headache in search of the necessary radical solutions to overcome stagnation. It is only possible worse when it is stable 4-4,5%.
In general, Mikhail Khazin already proposed a simple solution - import substitution, as the only way to achieve the growth of the Russian economy.
Let's see what the RAS working group is trying to find. It seems that Putin has instructed to develop a certain concept of "breakthrough".

[Zeus]

It’s just not clear why, after this assignment, he proposed Nabiullin to the post of head of the Central Bank.

[bairat]

With loans with a rate of more than 20% per annum, what kind of production can be? And banks receive money from the state at 8%. And also to boast: "on the other hand, when we joined the WTO, we preserved the national banking system." Yes, fuck she needs such a system, the spine-gnaw sits on the back-gnaw.

[sergey32]

I fully support. You won’t get a loan under the predatory interest for production, until you roll it back to the bank manager.

[Zeus]

So loans with such a rate are confirmation that our banking system is not national. They lie when they say that the national.

[Larus]

What kind of industrial production is there in general, if we have nothing under construction except shopping centers, and industrial zones are given for warehouses ....